MS Risk Blog

Election Results in Myanmar

Under the leadership of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), remains on course for a landmark victory which if successful will give the South East Asian nation an opportunity to remake itself as an open democratic country for the first time in 25 years. Although results from Myanmar’s historic election are not yet final, the opposition have so far secured an extraordinary 327 seats in both chambers of parliament, just two short of an absolute majority which would enable them to elect a new president. Under Myanmar law, the NLD is required to secure a two thirds majority of seats not allocated to the military in order to nominate a candidate for the presidency. It is a complex process which requires both houses of parliament to chose between three presidential candidates and will, in all likelihood, not be resolved until next February.

Despite the role Suu Kyi has played in mobilising popular support for democratic reform, the former political prisoner will likely not serve in this office. Constitutional impediments established by her opponents will prevent her from being elected president on the grounds that she has two sons by a British husband, now deceased. The law, which some say was promulgated in order to prevent Suu Kyi from ever taking office, explicitly states that the president cannot have a foreign-born spouse or children. Despite this, Suu Kyi has said that if her party wins last Saturday’s election she will rule the country regardless. “I will run the government and we will have a president who will work in accordance with the policies of the NLD (National League for Democracy) ,” she told reporters. “We have a candidate that is ready to become the president … I will be above the president,” Suu Kyi said, adding that constitutional law did not prevent an individual from occupying a position above the presidency.

Even though an NLD victory looks like a forgone conclusion, there are two other alternative scenarios which demand consideration. 1) Suu Kyi’s party wins the most seats but a coalition of President Thein Sein’s Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), various ethnic parties and the army restores power to the incumbent. While unlikely, this could be achieved by the USDP with a comparatively small proportion of the vote. It would, however, be an extremely unpopular move, given the enormous outpouring of public support for Suu Kyi and the NLD. 2) Suu Kyi does not secure the requisite two-thirds majority and has to enter into a coalition with ethnic parties. Should this situation arise, Suu Kyi and the NLD would be required to negotiate with their new coalition partners over the choice of presidential candidates.

Ebola remains in Guinea as Liberia and Sierra Leone Remain Free of Virus

After killing more than 11,000 people, the world’s worst outbreak of Ebola is now down to a few cases, however they all remain in Guinea, where the disease first emerged nearly two years ago and where health workers continue to battle community resistance in their bid to end the outbreak.

According to officials, Guinea’s fight against Ebola has been hampered by residents who have abandoned preventive measures, which helped halt the spread of the deadly virus. According to Guinea task force spokesman Fode Tass Sylla, people shake hands, don’t was their hands and continue to consult with traditional healers instead of medics. Minister of Health Col. Remy Lama has disclosed that the recent reporting of new cases in the district of Forecariah “have taken us all by surprise,” adding that the district had been free of the disease for nearly forty days.

Central African Republic Sets Election Date as Violence Continues

In a presidential decree, which was published on Tuesday, the Central African Republic (CAR) set legislative and presidential elections for 27 December. According to the decree, the polls will be preceded by a constitutional referendum, which will take place on 13 December. If required, a second round of voting will take place on 31 January 2016.

Some analysts have warned that premature elections could do more harm then good. The international community however has continued to press for elections to be held by the end of this year in order to replace the current interim authority, which has been plagued by internal fighting. On Tuesday, a diplomat disclosed that while the mandate of the interim authorities is due to expire next month, a regional summit later this month is expected to renew it through February in order to cover the election period.

While the interim government has attempted several times to hold elections in a bid to fully transition the country back to democratic rule, ongoing violence has forced officials to postpone the election date. With no current end in site to the latest wave of violence, which erupted in September, many are questioning whether elections will be held this year.

A United Nations official and an aid worker have reported that clashes between fighters in the CAR killed at least three people and wounded five others on Monday. Sources have reported that the latest fighting centred in and around the town of Bambari, which for the last year much of it has been controlled by the Union for Peace in Central Africa (UPC), which is a faction of the former Seleka rebel alliance. According to a UN official, “two people were killed during the fighting in a village 10 kilometres (6 miles) away (from Bambari) and one other died of his injuries.” A spokesman for the UPC has disclosed that the dead were members of the faction. Witnesses have since reported that their deaths triggered more widespread violence in Bambari, with gunmen opening fire in the town, burning houses and sending hundreds of people running for cover. The sound of gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades could be heard across the town. Eyewitnesses further disclosed that anti-balaka forces descended into Bambari on foot, opening fire as UPC fighters roamed the streets on motorbikes while UN peacekeepers attempted to restore calm. Earlier in the day, dozens of Muslims had marched through the town, protesting against the proposed rearmament of the country’s fractured armed forces, which many distrust.

According to UN figures, the successive waves of fighting in the CAR have forced at least 360,000 people form their homes across the country, with up to 40,000 displaced in Bambari alone. Many in Bambari have found temporary shelter near churches, in disused factories or near the bases of the UN MINUSCA peacekeeping force. Speaking about the situation in Bambari, Nicolas Peissel, field coordinator for medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) in Ouaka province, has stated that “this is the worst violence we have seen in Bambari since the end of September.” On Friday, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reported that it is deeply concerned by the worsening violence in the CAR, adding that since the end of September, dozens of people have been killed and hundreds more wounded in the capital Bangui. The ICRC has urged all parties to the conflict to spare civilians, their schools, houses and medial facilities.

On Tuesday, following a clash with Muslim Seleka rebels, a UN peacekeeper was killed. According to a UN spokesman, the soldier from the MINUSCA force was found dead in Batangafo, which is located north of Bangui. A statement released by spokesman Stephane Dujarric has indicated that “following an outbreak of violence between armed anti-Balaka and ex-Seleka elements at an internally displaced persons camp in Batangafo, ex-Seleka elements confronted MINUSCA troops at a nearby MINUSCA checkpoint,” adding that “during the incident, one peacekeeper went missing and was subsequently found dead.” A UN official has disclosed that the peacekeeper was from Cameroon. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has condemned the killing and has called for swift action in order to bring the perpetrators to justice.

The latest attack comes as the UN mission is trying to bolster security across the country ahead of elections, which are due to take place on 27 December and which are shaping up as a test of the country’s progress in its political transition. It also comes as France has announced that it will resume withdrawing its troops from the CAR following the elections.

On Tuesday, a UN official announced that the UN is sending hundreds of additional peacekeepers and its first drones to the CAR in a bid to bolster security ahead of next month’s elections. The new deployments may be in place for a planned upcoming visit by Pope Francis to the CAR at the end of this month, however the Vatican has already warned that it may be forced to cancel the trip due to ongoing security concerns.

Speaking to reporters, the UN official disclosed that Egypt will deploy a battalion of 750 troops while 140 police officers will be sent by Mauritania. The official further indicated that two companies of peacekeepers serving in West Africa may be temporarily sent to the CAR in order to bolster security after clashes led to the cancellation of the first round of voting in October. The new deployments will effectively boost the strength of the current 12,000-strong UN peacekeeping MINUSCA mission by about 1,140 troops.

MINUSCA officials are also planning to deploy its first surveillance drones over Bangui in order to better track potential trouble spots in the capital. The UN has also disclosed that they have been in talks with the Vatican about security in the country, with one official indicting that “the mission plans to have reinforcements to boost security for the elections. Some reinforcements should be in theatre before the pope’s visit.”

Separately, the head of the UN mission has requested the UN Security Council to allow purchases of weapons and equipment for the country’s police and gendarmes. The CAR has been under an international arms embargo since December 2013. Furthermore, UN officials have warned former presidents Francois Bozize, who is now in exile in Uganda, and Michel Djotodia, who lives in Benin, against meddling in the upcoming elections.

Meanwhile French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian announced on Tuesday that France will resume withdrawing its troops from the CAR after elections take place in December.

Speaking on the sidelines of a security forum in Senegal, Le Drian told reporters that a resent surge in violence had forced France to put its withdrawal plans on hold. He further disclosed that “we decided to stop the process of winding down Sangaris to allow our force to support MINUSCA during the electoral period. Then it will be up to the new authority to decide how to organize its own army.”

France began withdrawing some of its troops, who numbered around 2,000 at the peak of the mission known as Sangaris, earlier this year. The UN mission in the CAR however has struggled to restore and maintain order.

Paris deployed soldiers to its former colony in late 2013 in an attempt to stem the bloodshed, which began after the mainly Muslim Seleka rebels seized power earlier in the year provoking a backlash from Christian anti-balaka militias. Since late September, militia violence and inter-religious reprisal attacks have killed around ninety people in the capital Bangui. French troops have been instrumental to containing the situation. Last month, French troops helped halt a column of Seleka fighters, which was advancing on Bangui.

Chad Declares State of Emergency in Boko Haram-hit Region

The Chadian government announced on Monday that officials have declared a state of emergency in the Lake Chad region in the wake of a series of raids and suicide bombings in the area carried out by Boko Haram insurgents.

According to Chad’s Communications Minister Hassan Sylla Bakari, the order, which will come into effect immediately, will grant authorities new powers to search and monitor residents in the region.

While Chad has been instrumental in forcing Boko Haram earlier this year to cede territory in northeastern Nigeria, which effectively undermined the militant group’s six-year campaign to carve out a Nigerian caliphate, ongoing military operations have forced insurgents out of their strongholds and into the border regions around Lake Chad, where they have continued to launch deadly raids and attacks. On Sunday, at least three people were killed in a Chadian village while three Nigerian refugees were killed on Monday in northern Cameroon.

Chad has not implemented a state of emergency since a series of rebellions in the 2000s, which sprang from its volatile east. Neighbouring Niger has also implemented a three-month state of emergency in its border region of Diffa, which in recent months has also been impacted by Boko Haram violence.

Suspected Boko Haram Militants Target Mosque in Cameroon

Military officials reported on Monday that two female suicide bombers suspected of belonging to the Boko Haram militant group blew themselves up on Monday near a mosque in Cameroon’s Far North province.

While officials have disclosed that it was not immediately clear if the explosions caused other fatalities, sources are reporting that Boko Haram militants are likely to be behind the latest attack.

Meanwhile in Senegal, officials disclosed on Monday that they have arrested five people suspected of having links to Boko Haram – a development that could mark a significant expansion of the militant group’s operations. According to a senior justice ministry official, the five were arrested last month in the suburbs of Senegal’s capital city Dakar and in the central town of Kaolak, more than 2,500 km (1,500 miles) from the militant’s base in northeastern Nigeria. The official has disclosed that “we believe those arrested have ties with Boko Haram,” adding that a judge charged them on Friday with alleged relations with a terrorism organization, financing of terrorism and money laundering.