MS Risk Blog

Chad Declares State of Emergency in Boko Haram-hit Region

The Chadian government announced on Monday that officials have declared a state of emergency in the Lake Chad region in the wake of a series of raids and suicide bombings in the area carried out by Boko Haram insurgents.

According to Chad’s Communications Minister Hassan Sylla Bakari, the order, which will come into effect immediately, will grant authorities new powers to search and monitor residents in the region.

While Chad has been instrumental in forcing Boko Haram earlier this year to cede territory in northeastern Nigeria, which effectively undermined the militant group’s six-year campaign to carve out a Nigerian caliphate, ongoing military operations have forced insurgents out of their strongholds and into the border regions around Lake Chad, where they have continued to launch deadly raids and attacks. On Sunday, at least three people were killed in a Chadian village while three Nigerian refugees were killed on Monday in northern Cameroon.

Chad has not implemented a state of emergency since a series of rebellions in the 2000s, which sprang from its volatile east. Neighbouring Niger has also implemented a three-month state of emergency in its border region of Diffa, which in recent months has also been impacted by Boko Haram violence.

Suspected Boko Haram Militants Target Mosque in Cameroon

Military officials reported on Monday that two female suicide bombers suspected of belonging to the Boko Haram militant group blew themselves up on Monday near a mosque in Cameroon’s Far North province.

While officials have disclosed that it was not immediately clear if the explosions caused other fatalities, sources are reporting that Boko Haram militants are likely to be behind the latest attack.

Meanwhile in Senegal, officials disclosed on Monday that they have arrested five people suspected of having links to Boko Haram – a development that could mark a significant expansion of the militant group’s operations. According to a senior justice ministry official, the five were arrested last month in the suburbs of Senegal’s capital city Dakar and in the central town of Kaolak, more than 2,500 km (1,500 miles) from the militant’s base in northeastern Nigeria. The official has disclosed that “we believe those arrested have ties with Boko Haram,” adding that a judge charged them on Friday with alleged relations with a terrorism organization, financing of terrorism and money laundering.

Sierra Leone Due to be Declared Ebola Free Tomorrow

The Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone is expected to be officially declared over on Saturday, when the West African nation will have gone 42 days without any new infections. However jubilation over the ending of the outbreak in Sierra Leone, where almost 4,000 deaths have been reported, has been tempered by caution as neighboring Guinea continues to battle the deadly virus.

Speaking at a news conference in Freetown on Wednesday, Palo Conteh, the head of Sierra Leone’s Ebola response, indicated that there were no plans for “an elaborate celebration,” adding that instead, the World Health organization (WHO) will deliver a formal declaration in the capital city on Saturday of the end of the epidemic. He warned however that “we have to be vigilant as it is not the end of Ebola, but the end of the current outbreak. We have fought the disease and we have won.” Since emerging in December 2013, the worst outbreak of Ebola on record has infected a reported 28,500 people, with 11,300 deaths registered, however officials believe that the real toll is significantly higher than the official data. This is largely due to under-reporting of probable cases during the early stages of the outbreak. Saturday’s announcement marks the official end of a battle, which was prematurely thought to have been nearing its end on previous occasions. On 24 August, President Ernest Bai Koroma led a festive ceremony, celebrating the discharge of the country’s last known patient. Optimism however was quickly shattered by the deaths of a 67-year-old woman and, two weeks later, a 16-year-old girl. While the primary cost of the outbreak has been in human life, the crisis has also wiped out development gains in Sierra Leone. The World Bank estimates that the West African country will lose at least US $1.4 billion in economic growth in 2015 as a result, which will lead to an “unprecedented” GDP contraction of 23.5 percent.

US Intelligence Reports Indicate IS May Have Planted Bomb in Russian Plane

Days after authorities dismissed claims that the Islamic State (IS) Group brought down a Russian passenger jet on Saturday, a US intelligence analysis has now suggested that either the terror group or one of its affiliates planted a bomb on the plane. On Thursday, Britain also disclosed that there was a significant possibility that IS’ Egyptian affiliate was behind a suspected bomb attack on the Russian airliner that killed 224 people in the Sinai Peninsula. Russia, however, has indicated that such theories remain speculation at this stage, adding that only the official investigation can determine what occurred. Egyptian officials have also disclosed that so far, there is no indication that a bomb was to blame.

On Saturday, Metrojet Flight 9268 crashed in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula after breaking apart in mid-air. It was en route to St Petersburg from the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

Multiple US officials have indicated that the latest US intelligence has suggested that the crash was most likely caused by a bomb that was planted on the plane by IS or an affiliate. One US official has indicted that intelligence also suggests that someone at the Sharm el-Sheikh airport helped get a bomb onto the plane. The official disclosed that “this airport has lax security. It is known for that…But there is intelligence suggesting an assist from someone at the airport.” Officials however have stressed that no formal conclusion has been reached by the US intelligence community and that US officials have not seen forensic evidence from the crash investigation.

Egyptian authorities who are leading the investigation into the crash, have not publicly responded to the US intelligence reports however since the crash, they have downplayed the possibility that this could have been a terrorist attack. Both Egypt and Russia have also stated that any theories are “speculation.”

In the wake of the crash, late on Wednesday, the UK announced that it has suspended flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh. Ireland and the Netherlands have also banned flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh. On Thursday, German airline Lufthansa announced that its subsidiaries Edelweiss and Eurowings are stopping all flights to Sharm el-Sheikh. On Saturday, the airline reported that its planes would no longer fly over the Sinai Peninsula. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, has disclosed that Russian planes are still flying to and from Sharm el-Sheikh airport.

British Prime Minister David Cameron has indicated in the wake of the UK suspending flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh, that it could be “some time” before all British tourists stranded in the tourist destination are home. Sources have disclosed that UK security experts are working with local authorities in order to get Britons home. Monarch airlines has reported that three “rescue flights” will operate on Friday. The airline further indicated that the flights would be in addition to its two scheduled flights. British Airways has also confirmed that it will operate two flights. There are an estimated 20,000 Britons in the Red Sea resort, including 1,000 residents. Extra UK consular staff have been drafted in to Sharm el-Sheikh aiport while a Ministry of Defense source has disclosed that a small team of UK military personnel are in the resort in order to advise Foreign Office officials and Department of Transport officials on logistics and security.

If a bomb did kill 224 passengers and crew aboard the Airbus A321, that would almost certainly undermine Egypt’s tourism industry, which is still recovering from years of political turmoil. On Thursday, security at Sharm el-Sheikh airport appeared to have been tightened, with security forces patrolling the terminals and not allowing drivers, tour agents or others to loiter while awaiting tourist arrivals.

IS Affiliated Group Claims Responsibility for Russian Plane Crash in Egypt

Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi has indicated that claims, put forth by militants linked to the Islamic State (IS) group that they brought down a Russian airliner, are “propaganda.” The Egyptian president however noted that it is too early to say what caused the crash of the Airbus 321.

On Wednesday, in an audio message posted on a Twitter account used by the group, IS’ Egyptian affiliate dismissed doubts that it had downed the Russian passenger plane over Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, stating that it would tell the world how it did so in its own time.   In the message, the speaker stated, “we say to the deniers and the doubters: Die from your frustration. We, with God’s grace, are the ones who brought it down, and we are not obliged to disclose the mechanism of its demise…So go to your wreckage, search, bring your black boxes and analyse, give us the summary of your research and the product of your expertise and prove that we did not bring it down or how it came down,” adding, “we will disclose the mechanism of its demise at the time that we want and in the way that we want.”

The Russian-operated Airbus A321M crashed Saturday just 23 minutes after taking off from the Red Sea resort of Sharm al-Sheikh on its way to St Petersburg. All 224 people on board, most of whom were Russian citizens, were killed. The plane’s flight recorders have been found and have been sent for analysis. Meanwhile, Russian rescue teams have extended the search for bodies and wreckage from the plane to a 40 sq-km (15 sq-km) area, with officials disclosing that drones are being used in order to scan the sandy and hilly terrain.

Sinai Province, which is an Egyptian group that has pledged loyalty to IS, had earlier released a statement, on the same day as the crash, that it had brought down the airliner “in response to Russian airstrikes that killed hundreds of Muslims on Syrian land.” The claim however has been dismissed by both Egyptian and Russian officials. Security experts and investigators have disclosed that the plane is unlikely to have been struck from the outside and that Sinai-based militants are not believed to possess the technology to shoot down a jet from a cruising altitude above 30,000 feet. Russian officials have disclosed that the plane probably broke up in the air, a theory that has opened the prospect of some kind of explosion on board.

On Monday, the airline Kogalymavia, which has just renamed itself Metrojet, blamed “external influence” for the crash, stating that it has ruled out a technical fault or pilot error. According to Alexander Smirnov, “the only (explanation) for the plane to have been destroyed in mid-air can be specific impact, purely mechanical, physical influence on the aircraft,” adding that “there is no such combination of failures of systems which could have led to the plane disintegrating in the air.” He further indicated that the plane lost speed and began descending rapidly, adding that the crew made no attempt to get in contact and report about the situation on board. The head of Russia’s Federal Aviation Agency, Aleksandr Neradko, however has told Russian TV that such talk was premature and “not based on any proper facts.” Egyptian President Sisi has also warned against jumping to conclusions, stating, “all those interested in the matter are welcome to participate in the investigation.” He further stated that “when there is propaganda that it crashed because of ISIS (IS), this is one way to damage the stability and security of Egypt and the image of Egypt. Believe me, the situation in Sinai – especially in this limited area – is under our full control.” The US director of national intelligence, James Clapper, has also indicated that there is no “direct evidence of any terrorist involvement yet,” noting, “its unlikely, but I wouldn’t rule it out.”

In 2011, militants launched an insurgency in the Sinai following the fall of President Hosni Mubarak. The increased their attacks after the military overthrew President Mohammed Morsi in mid-2013. A year ago, the insurgents renamed their movement Sinai Province and pledged alliance to the Islamic State. Since then, hundreds of police and soldiers operating in the region have been killed.

On 30 September, Russia, which is an ally of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, launched air raids against opposition groups in Syria, including IS. The hardline group however has called for war against both Russia and the United States in response to their air strikes in Syria. On Tuesday, IS backers in Iraq issued a video congratulating their Egyptian colleagues and warning Russian President Vladimir Putin that more was to come.