MS Risk Blog

Guinea’s Opposition Calls for Re-Run of Presidential Elections

Guinea’s opposition has called for a re-run of the weekend’s first-round of the presidential vote, condemning that the ballot was fraudulent even before the results and have been released, and pledging to take to the streets in protest.

Speaking at a press, which was attended by the six other candidates challenging incumbent President Alpha Conde, opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo stated, “we cannot accept this ballot, we request it be annulled. We will not accept the results of this vote…We will not give in, we have the right to demonstrate, we will demonstrate.” While the other six candidates have questioned the vote, none have called for a protest. The single woman running for election, Marie Madeleine Dioubate, urged her supports to “stay calm, stay off the streets.”

Despite clashes between Conde and Diallo supporters in the final days of the campaign, which left a dozen people dead, voting was peaceful though the opposition complained about logistical problems. Sources have disclosed that some polling stations opened late, while others were short of envelopes. Some voters turned up without voter ID cards while others failed to be listed on the registers. Some registers were neither in alphabetical nor numerical order. Voters however appeared to have turned out in massive numbers for Sunday’s polls. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has welcomed the peaceful vote and has urged all sides to refrain from any action that could lead to violence ahead of the release of the official results, which are expected Tuesday at the earliest.

US Reporter “Convicted” in Iran over Spying

Iran’s judiciary has announced that a verdict has been issued in the trial of Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian on charges that include espionage.

While officials have not given the details of the judgement, they hinted at a conviction. Appearing on state television late on Sunday, judiciary spokesman Gholamhoseyn Mohseni-Ezhei stated, “he (Jason Rezaian) has been convicted, but I don’t have the verdict’s details,” adding that “the time for an appeal is not yet over. So the court waits and if it doesn’t receive an appeal…the verdict becomes final.” Mr Mohseni-Ezhei disclosed that Mr Rezaian and his lawyer were eligible to appeal the conviction with twenty days.

Jason Rezaian, 39, has been detained in Iran for more than a year on charges, which the Post has dismissed as absurd. Washington Post foreign editor, Douglas Jehl, has called the ruling “vague” and stated that it was unclear if Mr Rezaian had been sentenced.” He disclosed that “we’ve now heard from the Iranian government today’s (Sunday) announcement that a verdict has been issued in Jason’s case, but that its not final and that its subject to appeal…That’s really all we know, and unfortunately it reflects a continued pattern of mystery, opacity and gamesmanship surrounding the way Iran has handled this case…The only thing that’s been clear from the beginning is Jason’s innocence. Everything else has been under a real shadow of darkness.”

Mr Rezaian faces between 10 to 20 years in prison. He, along with his wife, who is also a journalist, and two photojournalists, were arrested in July 2014 in Iran. However Mr Rezaian was the only one of the group not to be released. Mr Rezaian, who was the Post’s Tehran bureau chief since 2012, was charged with espionage and distributing propaganda against the Islamic Republic. He was tired in four hearing behind closed doors, with the last one occurred in August. He is a dual Iranian-American citizen.

Iraqi Military Claims IS Leader’s Convoy Hit

On Sunday, a military statement indicated that Iraq’s air force has hit a convoy of Islamic State (IS) group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, adding that the fate of the leader was unknown.

According to Sunday’s statement, which was released by the interior ministry intelligence unit, the Iraqi air force “bombed the convoy of the terrorist Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi while he was heading to Karabla to attend a meeting with Daesh (IS) commanders.” The statement added that Baghdadi was “transported in a vehicle” after the air strike and that “his health status is unknown.” The statement concluded by indicated that “the location of the meeting was also bombed and many of the group’s leaders were killed and wounded.” The attack is said to have occurred in western Anbar province, near the border with Syria. Interior ministry spokesman Saad Maan has indicated that the strike occurred midday on Saturday. Hospital sources have disclosed that several IS fighters were amongst the casualties, however there was no sign of Baghdadi.

So far there has been no official comment from IS, however one IS media representative indicated that the government’s claim was aimed at boosting the morale amongst its troops.

While there have previously been several reports that the IS leader had been killed or seriously injured in attacks, none have been confirmed. One such claim in July 2014, was followed by a video of Baghdadi at a mosque in Mosul. The release of the video came amidst reports that he had been killed or wounded in an air raid. In November 2014, IS released an audiotape which it says was recorded by Baghdadi just days after reports emerged that he had been killed or injured. More recently in April 2015, rumours about Baghdadi’s death surfaced again after reports emerged that he was seriously wounded in an air strike earlier in the year by the US-led coalition that is opposing IS.

While the fate of Baghdadi in the wake of Saturday’s raid remains unknown, analysts have cautioned that military statements from the Iraqi authorities on the results of actions against jihadi or insurgent leaders have in the past been unreliable and are therefore treated with some caution

The IS leader has been careful to reveal little about himself and about his whereabouts, with source disclosing that even his own fighters reportedly do not speak about seeing him face-to-face. In October 2011, the United States officially designate Baghdadi as a “terrorist” and offered a US $10 million (£5.8 million) reward for information leading to his capture or death.

Rwandan Top Court Clears Way for Third Term for President

On Thursday, Rwanda’s Supreme Court ruled that President Paul Kagame could run for a third seven-year term in office, effectively rejecting an attempt by the main opposition party to block changes to the country’s constitution.

In July, the Kagame-controlled parliament backed a motion to let him run again as the leader of the East African state. While the constitutional changes still must pass a referendum, there is little chance of them failing due to the president’s control over the media and many other aspects of public life. In response to Thursday’s ruling, the opposition Democratic Green Party, which brought the case before the Supreme Court, disclosed that it would continue to push for protection of existing constitutional term limits. Green party leader Frank Habineza stated “we are not happy but we’ve not given up. We are going to appeal to the president.” While the president has not explicitly stated that he wants to run again, he has made clear he is open to persuasion.

Thursday’s ruling is likely to attract attention in other African nations where term limits are under similar pressure. The Republic of Congo is holding a referendum later this month on constitutional changes that would allow 71-year-old President Denis Sassou Nguesso to extend his decades-long rule. Meanwhile in neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo, opposition parties have accused President Joseph Kabila, who has been in power for fourteen years, of attempting to extend his time in office via violence and manipulation of a packed electoral calendar. In Burundi, President Pierre Nkurunziza’s bid for a third term in office sparked months of protests and a failed coup in April.

First Full Week with No Ebola Cases Reported Since March 2014

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported on Wednesday that no new Ebola cases were confirmed last week, effectively marking the first full week without any new cases of the deadly disease being recorded in a year an a half.

In its latest situation report on the West African Ebola outbreak, the WHO disclosed that ‘no confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease were reported in the week to 4 October,” adding, “this is the first time that a complete epidemiological week has elapsed with zero confirmed cases since march 2014.” On Wednesday, WHO officials noted that the epidemic had clearly entered a third phase, noting that the focus was no on driving “case incidence to zero, and ensure a sustained end to (Ebola) transmission.” He UN health agency also disclosed that all contacts had been completely followed up in Sierra Leone, which has seen no new cases for the past three weeks.

While Wednesday’s report is good news for the region, which has been severely affected by the outbreak, the WHO has warned that the danger is still not over, adding that two high-risk contacts in Sierra Leone, one from Bombali and one from Kambia, have gone missing. The WHO has indicated that “efforts to trace these missing contacts and mitigate the risk of any undetected transmission will continue until at least 42 days have elapsed since the last reported case in each district.” Meanwhile in neighbouring Guinea, over 500 contacts remain under follow-up in three of the country’s prefectures, with the WHO noting that all the contacts were associated with a single chain of transmission centered on the Ratoma area of the capital, Conakry. Another 290 contacts had been identified but had not been traceable for the past 42 days. The four latest cases in Guinea, reported on September 26 and 27 in Forecariah, were people infected by an unregistered contact, likely linked to the Ratoma transmission chain.

The deadliest-ever outbreak of Ebola, since the virus was identified in central Africa in 1976, has killed to date 11,312 of the 28,457 people infected since December 2013, with nearly all the victims in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. In early September, Liberia was declared free of Ebola transmission for a second time, while late last month, Sierra Leone officially began a 42-day countdown towards becoming Ebola free.