MS Risk Blog

Al-Shabaab Targets Soldiers in Southern Somalia

Al-Shabaab militants have reported that they ambushed a group of military trainees on Monday in a region located southwest of the capital of Mogadishu.

According to the militants, they killed thirty of the military trainees, however the claim has not been independently confirmed. While a Somali military officer did confirm that the ambush occurred, he disclosed that fighting was still on going and that no death toll was immediately available. Ahmed Ibrahim has indicated that “we understand al-Shabaab ambushed the Somali military commando trainees and captured two military pickup trucks,” adding, “it is too early to k now what the casualties are because fighting is still going on in the jungle.” Meanwhile al-Shabaab’s military spokesman, Sheikh Abdiasis Abu Musab, has reported that his group killed thirty commando trainees and seized four military trucks.

The ambush comes just a day after at least thirteen people were killed after al-Shabaab insurgents stormed a hotel in the capital city, where government officials and lawmakers stay.

Al-Shabaab Launch Attack on Hotel in Mogadishu

On Sunday, security forces in Mogadishu fought for several hours before clearing a hotel of al-Shabaab gunmen who had stormed the building after two bombs ripped into it.

At least thirteen people were killed. According to Ahmed Nur, a police officer, a car bomb rammed the entrance to the hotel and was followed by a second blast, which a security guard disclosed was another vehicle bomb. Nur further disclosed that after a gun battle the lasted several hours, the hotel had been cleared of gunmen, adding, “the hotel has ben entirely secured.” Police officials have reported that amongst those killed were the hotel owner, a lawmaker, a former senior military commander, a radio journalist and other civilians. The hotel is located near a busy area in the capital city known as K-4.

Al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility for the assault on the Sahafi hotel, which is where government officials and lawmakers usually frequent. On Sunday, al-Shabaab’s military operations spokesman indicated that “mujahideen entered and took over Sahafi hotel where enemies lived.” The incident mirrored tactics used before by al-Shabaab, in which it detonates bombs in order to break through security at targets and then sends in fighters.

Rwanda’s MP’s Back Constitution to Allow President to Extend Rule

In a move that has been opposed by the United States and other donors, Rwanda’s lower house of parliament on Thursday voted to allow President Paul Kagame to extend his rule beyond a second term, which ends in 2017, and possibly stay on until 2034.

According to lower house speaker Donatilla Mukabalisa, Article 172 of the amended constitution, which would allow the president to extend his rule, was supported by all 75 lawmakers present. The lower house has 80 seats however some lawmakers were absent. Under the amendments, which were approved after debates were held on Wednesday and Thursday, the presidential term will be decreased to five years from seven. Furthermore, while the limit of two terms will remain, an exception is made for the currently president, namely Kagame. According to one lawmaker, who explained the amendment, article 172 effectively allows President Kagame to serve out his seven-year term, which ends in 2017, and also to seek a third seven-year term after that. Furthermore, even beyond that, the president could seek two more five-year terms. President Kagame, who has not explicitly indicated that he wants to run again, stating only that he is open to persuasion, could effectively remain in power until 2034.

While draft amendments to the country’s constitution, which have been approved by the lower house, still need to be backed by the upper house of senators and then put to a referendum, they are not expected to stumble at either stage. Parliament, which is dominated by the president’s backers, debated the issue after a petition calling for changes was signed by 3.7 million supporters of the president. While the country’s main but small opposition, the Democratic Green Party, attempted to block the amendment to extend the president’s term, a court rejected the bid. Critics however have disclosed that the government stifles opposition media and politicians, a charge that officials have denied.

Ivory Coast Incumbent Wins Presidential Election

Ivory Coast’s President Alassane Ouattara has won the weekend’s presidential election, the elections commission announced on Wednesday.

According to President of the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) Youssouf Bakayoko, Ouattara won a total of 2,118,229 votes, or 83.66 percent of ballots, adding that Sunday’s vote had a turnout of 54.63 percent. Results have indicated that Ouattara won the most votes in all but one of the 31 regions as well as in the largest city, Abidjan, and the capital, Yamoussoukro. Furthermore, he won all but sixteen votes in his home constituency of Kong, which is located in Ivory Coast’s north, where more than 14,000 voters cast their ballots.

Of the six candidates who were seeking to unseat Ouattara, his closest challenger was Pascal Affi N’Guessan, head of ex-president Laurent Gbagbo’s Ivorian Popular Front (FPI). He won 9.29 percent of the votes in Sunday’s election. The results announced by the CEI must now be validated by the constitutional court. Late on Tuesday, before the results were announced, Ouattara stated, “I would like to congratulate all Ivorian’s for their maturity and exemplary behaviour…Ivory Coast is resolutely committed to the path of stability and the reinforcement of democracy.” Sunday’s election has been judged to be peaceful and transparent by observers, which will likely reassure the county’s investors.

Six People Kidnapped and Killed in CAR

A government spokesman disclosed on Tuesday that three hostages seized in the CAR this week were killed and three more seized later by another group were also killed.

Sources have indicated that three officials from the mostly Muslim Seleka alliance were attacked on Monday as they were driving through a neighborhood controlled by the rival milita. Later that same day, three young Christians working in a Muslim enclave of the capital Bangui, known as PK5, were abducted in an apparent act of revenge. Security minister and government spokesman Dominique Said Panguindji has since indicated that all six hostages have been killed.

Political sources in the CAR have reported that the assassination of the Seleka members is surprising as they belonged to a moderate faction known as the Union for Peace in Central Africa (UPC), which is mostly composed of ethnic Peuhls. The missing men included the UPC’s spokesman, Ahmat Nejad, and its secretary general, Ahssan Bouba. The abductions come just days after anti-balaka militiamen briefly seized a senior figure in the transitional government outside of Bangui.

The incidents risks derailing talks that are aimed at restoring order in the country. The Seleka members had been participating in the talks, which were convened by interim President Catherine Samba Panza. Tensions have been running high in the capital since late September, when a Muslim man was killed – an incident that set off a new explosion of reprisal attacks. On Tuesday, hundreds of youths erected barricades made of lead pipes and wooden planks in the second district of Bangui in order to protest the Christian men’s abduction. They were later dispersed by security forces.