MS Risk Blog

France Launches Overnight Raids Across the Country in Wake of 13 Nov. Attacks

Officials have reported that a total of twenty-three people have been arrested and dozens of weapons seized in a series of raids that occurred overnight and which targeted suspected Islamist militants across France. The crackdown follows multiple attacks that targeted bars, restaurants, a concert hall and a stadium in Paris on Friday, in which 129 people were killed and over 300 were left injured. Reports have also indicated that a police operation is underway in Brussels, Belgium, with on the ground sources reporting hearing shots and explosions in the district of Molenbeek.

Late Friday evening, gunmen and bombers carried out a wave attacks that targeted restaurants, a concert hall and an area near the Stade de France in northern Paris, where France and Germany were playing a friendly football match. At 2120 local time, a suicide bomber activated an explosive belt near the gate of the Stade de France in the northern suburb of Saint-Denis. At the time of the incident, the stadium was packed with spectators, including French President Francois Hollande and the German foreign minister. Officials have disclosed that the explosion killed the bomber and a passer-by. At 2125, in the 10^th district of Paris, at the crossroads of rue Bichat and Rue Alibert, gunmen shot at clients who were sitting on the terraces of the Le Carillon bar and at the Petit Cambodge restaurant. Fifteen people were killed and ten were severely injured. At 2130, outside the Stade de France, a second suicide bomber detonated a bomb, killing only himself while at 2132, gunmen opened fire in front of the A La Bonne Biere bar, which is located at the intersection of rue Fontaine au Roi and rue Faubourg du Temple in the 11^th district. Five people were killed and eight were severally injured. At 2136, gunmen killed nineteen people who were sitting on the terrace of the restaurant La Belle Equipe in nearby rue de Charone. Nine people sustained severe injuries, while around 2140, a suicide bomber killed himself inside the restaurant Le Comptoir Voltaire, which is located on boulevard Voltaire, also in the 11^th district. One person was severely injured. At 2140, a car stopped in front of the nearby Bataclan concert hall. Several gunmen entered the theatre during a concert of the Eagles of Death Metal rock group and shot indiscriminately at the crowd. Around 89 people were killed and many were left injured. Sources have reported that the attackers made verbal references to Syria and Iraq. At 2135 a third suicide bomber killed himself near the Stade de France. On Saturday, at 0020, security forces launched an assault on the Bataclan concern hall in a bid to try and free those inside. Three of the attackers inside the concert hall are killed, one of whom is shot, while the remaining two kill themselves using their explosive belt.

On Saturday, the so-called Islamic State (IS) group released an official statement, claiming responsibility for Friday’s massacre. In the statement, IS indicated that the attacks were due to France’s policies pertaining to Syria, and its participation in coalition air strikes. IS further warned France that such attacks will continue until the country changes is stance.

IS’ threat however has not forced France to rethink its strategy and position in combatting the jihadist group. While France has been bombing IS positions in Iraq and Syria, as part of a US-led operation, for months, Friday’s attacks have resulted in Paris vowing to destroy the group. Underlining its resolve, French jets on Sunday launched their largest raids in Syria to date, hitting the group’s stronghold in Raqqa. A statement released by the French Defense Ministry reported that “the raid…including 10 fighter jets, was launched simultaneously from the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. Twenty bombs were dropped,” adding that amongst the targets were a munitions depot and training camp. IS has since issued a statement saying that the raid targeted empty locations and that there were no casualties.

In the days since the tragedy, numerous details pertaining to the attack and those behind it have emerged. On Monday, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls disclosed that the attacks had been organized from Syria, further adding that the authorities believe that new terror attacks are being planned in France as well as in other European countries. There have also been numerous reports of arrests of those involved in Friday’s attack as officials in France carried out more than 150 raids on militant targets early on Monday. According to the French Prime Minister, “we are making use of the legal framework of the state of emergency to question people who are part of the radical jihadist movement…and all those who advocate hate of the republic.” Police sources have reported that properties in the Paris suburb of Bobigny, as well as the cities of Grenoble, Lyon and Toulouse, were targeted. Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve has reported that 23 people have been arrested and dozens of weapons were seized, including a Kalashnikov assault rifle and rocket launchers. More than 100 people have been placed under house arrest.

Over the weekend, officials identified five of the attackers, while on Monday, another two were named by the Paris prosecutor.

• Salah Abdeslam (26) – urgently sought by police
• Mohammed Abdeslam – arrested in Belgium; his lawyer confirmed on Monday that he has since been released without charge, proving his innocence. His brothers are Brahim Abdeslam, killed during the attacks, and Salah, who remains on the run.
• Brahim Abdeslam (31) – named as attacker who died near Bataclan concert hall
• Omar Ismail Mostefai (29) – from near Paris; died in attack on Bataclan
• Bilal Hadfi (20) – named as attacker who died at the Stade de France
• Ahmad al-Mohammad (25) – from Idlib, Syria; died at the Stade de France. While Al-Mohammed is the name on a Syrian passport that was found with the remains of one of the attackers, the man’s identify has not yet been verified. What has been confirmed is that his fingerprints match those that were taken by Greek authorities after he arrived with migrants on the island of Leros in October 2015.
• Samy Amimour (28) – from near Paris; suicide bomber at Bataclan. He was said to be facing terrorism charges in France. He was placed under judicial supervision while under investigation for terrorist conspiracy – he planned to go to Yemen. An international arrest warrant was issued against him when he broke bail in autumn 2013. Three of his relatives were amongst those detained early Monday morning.

Officials have also launched investigations in Brussels, specifically in the district of Molenbeek, which has a reputation as being a haven for jihadists. Investigators are also reported to be focusing on a Belgian of Moroccan descent, who is described as the possible mastermind of the attacks. Abdelhamid Abaoud, 27, lived in the same neighbourhood of Brussels as two of the attackers. He is now believed to be based in Syria, where he has risen through the ranks of IS. Police have also named Brussels-born Salah Abdeslam, 26, as a key suspect, and a manhunt is currently underway. He was reportedly stopped by officers in the wake of the attacks while crossing into Belgium however police let him go. Belgian authorities are confident that he is in the Brussels area.

US Deploys Troops to Cameroon

United States President Barack Obama informed Congress on Wednesday that he will deploy up to 300 personnel to Cameroon for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations against Boko Haram insurgents.

In a letter that was released by the White House, President Obama disclosed that ninety personnel have already been deployed, which marks a modest but significant escalation of US involvement in the fight against the terrorist group, which earlier this year aligned itself with the Islamic State (IS) group. In making Wednesday’s announcement, the White House stressed that personnel will not take part in combat operations and would be armed only for self-defense. According to White House press secretary Josh Earnest, they are being sent under an arrangement with the Cameroonian government to conduct airborne intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations in the region. US officials have disclosed that the focus will still be on a regional coalition that has tried to keep a once regional Muslim anti-colonial movement from metastasizing into a regional jihadist threat. In the statement, the president indicated that the mission will last “until their support is no longer needed.”

While Washington has largely shied away from engaging its vast military assets to combat Boko Haram, the White House decision comes as Boko Haram steadily expands operations beyond its traditional base in northern Nigeria, crossing into neighboring Cameroon and Niger.

Election Results in Myanmar

Under the leadership of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), remains on course for a landmark victory which if successful will give the South East Asian nation an opportunity to remake itself as an open democratic country for the first time in 25 years. Although results from Myanmar’s historic election are not yet final, the opposition have so far secured an extraordinary 327 seats in both chambers of parliament, just two short of an absolute majority which would enable them to elect a new president. Under Myanmar law, the NLD is required to secure a two thirds majority of seats not allocated to the military in order to nominate a candidate for the presidency. It is a complex process which requires both houses of parliament to chose between three presidential candidates and will, in all likelihood, not be resolved until next February.

Despite the role Suu Kyi has played in mobilising popular support for democratic reform, the former political prisoner will likely not serve in this office. Constitutional impediments established by her opponents will prevent her from being elected president on the grounds that she has two sons by a British husband, now deceased. The law, which some say was promulgated in order to prevent Suu Kyi from ever taking office, explicitly states that the president cannot have a foreign-born spouse or children. Despite this, Suu Kyi has said that if her party wins last Saturday’s election she will rule the country regardless. “I will run the government and we will have a president who will work in accordance with the policies of the NLD (National League for Democracy) ,” she told reporters. “We have a candidate that is ready to become the president … I will be above the president,” Suu Kyi said, adding that constitutional law did not prevent an individual from occupying a position above the presidency.

Even though an NLD victory looks like a forgone conclusion, there are two other alternative scenarios which demand consideration. 1) Suu Kyi’s party wins the most seats but a coalition of President Thein Sein’s Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), various ethnic parties and the army restores power to the incumbent. While unlikely, this could be achieved by the USDP with a comparatively small proportion of the vote. It would, however, be an extremely unpopular move, given the enormous outpouring of public support for Suu Kyi and the NLD. 2) Suu Kyi does not secure the requisite two-thirds majority and has to enter into a coalition with ethnic parties. Should this situation arise, Suu Kyi and the NLD would be required to negotiate with their new coalition partners over the choice of presidential candidates.

Ebola remains in Guinea as Liberia and Sierra Leone Remain Free of Virus

After killing more than 11,000 people, the world’s worst outbreak of Ebola is now down to a few cases, however they all remain in Guinea, where the disease first emerged nearly two years ago and where health workers continue to battle community resistance in their bid to end the outbreak.

According to officials, Guinea’s fight against Ebola has been hampered by residents who have abandoned preventive measures, which helped halt the spread of the deadly virus. According to Guinea task force spokesman Fode Tass Sylla, people shake hands, don’t was their hands and continue to consult with traditional healers instead of medics. Minister of Health Col. Remy Lama has disclosed that the recent reporting of new cases in the district of Forecariah “have taken us all by surprise,” adding that the district had been free of the disease for nearly forty days.

Central African Republic Sets Election Date as Violence Continues

In a presidential decree, which was published on Tuesday, the Central African Republic (CAR) set legislative and presidential elections for 27 December. According to the decree, the polls will be preceded by a constitutional referendum, which will take place on 13 December. If required, a second round of voting will take place on 31 January 2016.

Some analysts have warned that premature elections could do more harm then good. The international community however has continued to press for elections to be held by the end of this year in order to replace the current interim authority, which has been plagued by internal fighting. On Tuesday, a diplomat disclosed that while the mandate of the interim authorities is due to expire next month, a regional summit later this month is expected to renew it through February in order to cover the election period.

While the interim government has attempted several times to hold elections in a bid to fully transition the country back to democratic rule, ongoing violence has forced officials to postpone the election date. With no current end in site to the latest wave of violence, which erupted in September, many are questioning whether elections will be held this year.

A United Nations official and an aid worker have reported that clashes between fighters in the CAR killed at least three people and wounded five others on Monday. Sources have reported that the latest fighting centred in and around the town of Bambari, which for the last year much of it has been controlled by the Union for Peace in Central Africa (UPC), which is a faction of the former Seleka rebel alliance. According to a UN official, “two people were killed during the fighting in a village 10 kilometres (6 miles) away (from Bambari) and one other died of his injuries.” A spokesman for the UPC has disclosed that the dead were members of the faction. Witnesses have since reported that their deaths triggered more widespread violence in Bambari, with gunmen opening fire in the town, burning houses and sending hundreds of people running for cover. The sound of gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades could be heard across the town. Eyewitnesses further disclosed that anti-balaka forces descended into Bambari on foot, opening fire as UPC fighters roamed the streets on motorbikes while UN peacekeepers attempted to restore calm. Earlier in the day, dozens of Muslims had marched through the town, protesting against the proposed rearmament of the country’s fractured armed forces, which many distrust.

According to UN figures, the successive waves of fighting in the CAR have forced at least 360,000 people form their homes across the country, with up to 40,000 displaced in Bambari alone. Many in Bambari have found temporary shelter near churches, in disused factories or near the bases of the UN MINUSCA peacekeeping force. Speaking about the situation in Bambari, Nicolas Peissel, field coordinator for medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) in Ouaka province, has stated that “this is the worst violence we have seen in Bambari since the end of September.” On Friday, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reported that it is deeply concerned by the worsening violence in the CAR, adding that since the end of September, dozens of people have been killed and hundreds more wounded in the capital Bangui. The ICRC has urged all parties to the conflict to spare civilians, their schools, houses and medial facilities.

On Tuesday, following a clash with Muslim Seleka rebels, a UN peacekeeper was killed. According to a UN spokesman, the soldier from the MINUSCA force was found dead in Batangafo, which is located north of Bangui. A statement released by spokesman Stephane Dujarric has indicated that “following an outbreak of violence between armed anti-Balaka and ex-Seleka elements at an internally displaced persons camp in Batangafo, ex-Seleka elements confronted MINUSCA troops at a nearby MINUSCA checkpoint,” adding that “during the incident, one peacekeeper went missing and was subsequently found dead.” A UN official has disclosed that the peacekeeper was from Cameroon. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has condemned the killing and has called for swift action in order to bring the perpetrators to justice.

The latest attack comes as the UN mission is trying to bolster security across the country ahead of elections, which are due to take place on 27 December and which are shaping up as a test of the country’s progress in its political transition. It also comes as France has announced that it will resume withdrawing its troops from the CAR following the elections.

On Tuesday, a UN official announced that the UN is sending hundreds of additional peacekeepers and its first drones to the CAR in a bid to bolster security ahead of next month’s elections. The new deployments may be in place for a planned upcoming visit by Pope Francis to the CAR at the end of this month, however the Vatican has already warned that it may be forced to cancel the trip due to ongoing security concerns.

Speaking to reporters, the UN official disclosed that Egypt will deploy a battalion of 750 troops while 140 police officers will be sent by Mauritania. The official further indicated that two companies of peacekeepers serving in West Africa may be temporarily sent to the CAR in order to bolster security after clashes led to the cancellation of the first round of voting in October. The new deployments will effectively boost the strength of the current 12,000-strong UN peacekeeping MINUSCA mission by about 1,140 troops.

MINUSCA officials are also planning to deploy its first surveillance drones over Bangui in order to better track potential trouble spots in the capital. The UN has also disclosed that they have been in talks with the Vatican about security in the country, with one official indicting that “the mission plans to have reinforcements to boost security for the elections. Some reinforcements should be in theatre before the pope’s visit.”

Separately, the head of the UN mission has requested the UN Security Council to allow purchases of weapons and equipment for the country’s police and gendarmes. The CAR has been under an international arms embargo since December 2013. Furthermore, UN officials have warned former presidents Francois Bozize, who is now in exile in Uganda, and Michel Djotodia, who lives in Benin, against meddling in the upcoming elections.

Meanwhile French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian announced on Tuesday that France will resume withdrawing its troops from the CAR after elections take place in December.

Speaking on the sidelines of a security forum in Senegal, Le Drian told reporters that a resent surge in violence had forced France to put its withdrawal plans on hold. He further disclosed that “we decided to stop the process of winding down Sangaris to allow our force to support MINUSCA during the electoral period. Then it will be up to the new authority to decide how to organize its own army.”

France began withdrawing some of its troops, who numbered around 2,000 at the peak of the mission known as Sangaris, earlier this year. The UN mission in the CAR however has struggled to restore and maintain order.

Paris deployed soldiers to its former colony in late 2013 in an attempt to stem the bloodshed, which began after the mainly Muslim Seleka rebels seized power earlier in the year provoking a backlash from Christian anti-balaka militias. Since late September, militia violence and inter-religious reprisal attacks have killed around ninety people in the capital Bangui. French troops have been instrumental to containing the situation. Last month, French troops helped halt a column of Seleka fighters, which was advancing on Bangui.