MS Risk Blog

Officials Warn that IS May Be Seeking to Develop Chemical/Biological Weapons

Late last week, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls warned that France could face a chemical or biological attack from terror groups, as deputies voted to extend the state of emergency, which was imposed after the attacks, for another three months from 26 November. Speaking to the lower house of Parliament on Thursday ahead of the vote, the prime minister stated that “terrorism hit France not because of what it is doing in Iraq and Syria…but for what it is,” adding, “we know that there could also be a risk of chemical or biological weapons,” however he did not talk of a specific threat.

On Thursday, US and Iraqi intelligence officials also reported that IS is aggressively pursuing development of chemical weapons, setting up a branch that is dedicated to research and experiments with the help of scientists from Iraq, Syria and elsewhere in the region.   While US intelligence officials currently do not believe that IS has the capabilities to develop sophisticated weapons, such as never gas, that are most suited for a terrorist attack on a civilian target, the Islamist terror group has in the past used mustard gas on the battlefield in Syria and Iraq. Militants have used mustard gas against Iraqi Kurdish fighters and in Syria. In mortars that hit Kurdish forces in northern Iraq earlier this year, preliminary tests by the US showed traces of the chemical agent sulphur mustard. Furthermore, US intelligence agencies have consistently underestimated IS, which has shown itself to be more capable and innovative than al-Qaeda and has greater financial resources.

According to a senior Iraqi military intelligence officer and two officials from another Iraqi intelligence agency, IS has set up a branch that is tasked with pursuing chemical weapons. While these officials have not provided details of the programme, including how many personnel it is believed to have or its budget, Hakim al-Zimili, the head of the Iraqi parliament’s security and defense committee, citing intelligence reports he has access to, disclosed that the group has managed to attract chemical experts from both abroad as well as Iraqi experts, including ones who once worked for Saddam Hussein’s now-dissolved Military Industrialization Authority. Iraqi intelligence officials have disclosed that the foreigners include experts from Chechnya and southeast Asia. According to Al-Zmili, IS recently moved its research labs, experts and materials from Iraq to “secured locations” inside Syria, adding that the move was apparently out of concern of an eventual assault on Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, which ws captured by IS in the summer of 2014. Iraqi officials have also expressed their concern that the large safe haven the extremists control since overrunning parts of Iraq and Syria last year has left Iraqi authorities largely in the dark in regards to the IS programme. A senior Iraqi intelligence official has disclosed that “they now have complete freedom to select locations for their labs and production sites and have a wide range of experts, both civilians and military, to aid them.” It is evident that Iraqi authorities fear that the use of chemical weapons could be expanded. Over the summer, Iraq’s military distributed gas masks to troops deployed in the regions west and north of Baghdad. According to a senior officer in the province of Salahuddin, which is located north of Baghdad, 25 percent of the troops deployed there were equipped with masks. More recently, Hakim al-Zamili, the head of the Iraqi parliament’s security and defense committee reported that the country’s military had received from Russia 1,000 protective suits against chemical attacks.

What is known is that developing chemical weapons has been an ambition of the group, and various other jihadi movements, for years. According to two senior officials, in a 2013 report on IS’ weapons procurement efforts, a senior deputy of IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi wrote of “significant progress” toward producing chemical weapons. The officials further disclosed that in the report, Sameer al-Khalifawy wrote that chemical weapons would ensure “Sift victory” and “terrorize our enemies,” adding that what was needed was “to secure a safe environment to carry out experiments.” Al-Khalifawy was killed by rebels in Syria in early 2014, just months before IS overran Mosul and much of northern and Western Iraq. Furthermore in May 2013, Iraqi security forces, acting on a tip from US intelligence officials, raided a secret chemical weapons research lab in Baghdad’s Sunni-majority district of al-Doura. According to Iraqi intelligence officials, security forces arrested two militants running the lab, Kefah Ibrahim al-Jabouri, who held a master’s degree in chemistry, and Abdel Mahmoud al-Abadi, who has a bachelor’s degree in physics and who worked at Saddam’s Military Industrialization Authority before it was disbanded in 2003. Iraqi officials have disclosed that the two men were working with al-Baghdadi, citing IS correspondence that they seized from al-Jabouri. International officials however have disputed these claims, stating that the men were not connected with IS. Iraqi officials have also complained of a lack of cooperation from neighbouring Syria, citing the case of a veteran Iraqi jihadist and weapons expert, Ziad Tareq Ahmed, who fled to Syria after Iraqi security agents raided his home in Baghdad in 2010 and arrested several members of his cell. At the time, Iraqi agents found large amounts of material that could have been used for making mustard gas. Ahmed, who holds a master’s degree in chemistry and who has worked with several Islamic militant groups without formally joining any, was arrested by the Syrians last year. While the Syrian government allowed Iraqi officials to interrogate him in prison, they refused to hand him over. According to Iraqi intelligence officials, last month, Syrian officials released him. One of the officials has since stated that “this is a very grave development, adding that “his release adds significantly to our concerns.”

The Arctic Route to Europe

Although it may seem a strange route and unnecessarily long detour to access Europe via Russia and the border to northern Norway, it has its advantages. The convenience of this route is that it bypasses a lot of the strict border controls of the normal routes. The route has been used by Syrians, Afghans, Iraqis and other nationalities, and it’s not just refugees fleeing from war or oppression. It is also used by those who are, like so many, looking for better jobs and living conditions. Rather than defying the border fences of and strictly controlled crossings of southern and eastern Europe, not to mention the dangers of the Mediterranean crossing, some seem to prefer the so called ‘arctic route’ to Europe. Many of the migrants come much underdressed though and face tough challenges in the tough, northern climate. Whether or not this route has been easier than the more frequented travel routes to Europe is hard to say.

After flying via Moscow to Murmansk migrants must first try make their way from there, some 136 miles north, past barren tundra, an area of Russian military bases and heavily armed checkpoints, to the small mining town of Nickel. There, refugees face yet another challenge: Russian law bans foot traffic at the border and Norway fines drivers for carrying migrants across because it is considered human trafficking. Because of this migrants have taken to crossing the border by bicycle. The legal twist has prompted a brisk trade in used bicycles throughout Russia’s Northwest — any size or condition is accepted. Entrepreneurial Russian smugglers have made business of this, and even arrange package deals of minivans and bicycles.

News of this arctic route has spread and the fact that the crossing is actually possible has led to an increase in migrants coming this way. The small town of Nickel has seen the stream of people coming north and a lone hotel there has become a key stopover point before heading for the border. Syrians, Afghans, Egyptians, Palestinians, Iraqis and others have filled the hotel’s 30 rooms some nights and yet more migrants are left to seek refuge in a nearby student dormitory. Norwegian authorities have been relatively welcoming and offered temporary refugee status to the migrants. But the growing wave is testing the limits of Norwegian hospitality and as the weeks have gone by, the influx has grown larger than what can be handled. In Kirkenes, a small Norwegian town just across the border, mayor Rune Rafaelson, has said local police estimate 10,800 migrants may arrive by year’s end — in effect doubling the entire region’s population. Rafaelson is one of a growing number of Norwegian politicians who suspects that the Kremlin is driving the current influx, as neighbouring Finland – a non-NATO member that has warmer relations with Russia —faces no similar migrant surge. Storskog border crossing has seen more than 4,000 refugees arrive so far this year, the majority of them riding bicycles. Norway has started building new refugee accommodation at the airport in the nearby town of Kirkenes, where the refugees can stay before being flown south. While the number of asylum- seekers remains small compared with the hundreds of thousands of migrants who risk their lives crossing the Mediterranean, their number is steadily rising, and with more than 1000 migrants per week, it has changed the hospitable attitude of the Norwegians.
With the tension between Norway and Russia the issue has since taken on a diplomatic dimension. The arctic route has been known among the migrants as a safe route to Europe, and relatively easy with the checkpoints as the Russians don’t bother anyone who wants to cross over to Norway, but it will be far less safe as the weather steadily gets colder. Besides this, Norway, like so many other countries in Europa, is not interested in taking on more refugees than it can handle. Authorities long refrained from closing this crossing point as it would possibly provoke the Russian government, but now have to consider it an alternative. That Russia allows asylum-seekers to cross the highly-militarised region is sometimes seen by Norwegian commentators and media as a bid by Moscow to destabilise its smaller neighbour. Some suggest it is a provocation, punishing Oslo for adopting European sanctions regarding the Ukraine conflict, or creating divisions in Norway. Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg has said, earlier in November, that closing the border will not solve any problems but the government has sent warnings to asylum seekers that they risk being sent back, not just to Russia, from where they crossed into the country, but all the way to their home countries. It has been under discussion in the last couple of weeks that the border crossing of Storskog might be closed under the seldom used “Law on Access to Certain Areas”, which was brought in by the parliament right before the German invasion in April 1940. This would partly be to control the influx and partly a diplomatic reaction towards Russia.

Suspected Ringleader of Paris Attacks Killed in Raid

French prosecutors disclosed on Thursday that the suspected ringleader behind last week’s deadly attacks in Paris, Abdelhamid Abaaoud, was amongst those killed in a French police raid that occurred in the early morning hours on Wednesday.

Early on Thursday, the Paris prosecutor’s office confirmed that Abaaoud was amongst those killed when anti-terror police raided a flat in the Paris suburb of Saint Denis. The prosecutor’s office has disclosed that his body was found riddled with bullets and shrapnel in a shattered apartment in the northern suburb. Officials however have noted that it still remains unclear whether Abaaoud had blown himself up or not. Abaaoud (28), a Belgian national, was identified from his fingerprints.

On Wednesday, eight people were arrested and at least two killed in the raid, which targeted the property in the Saint Denis district, near the Stade de France stadium. Sources have disclosed that heavily armed police stormed the building after they received a tip-off that Abaaoud was in Paris. A woman at the flat died during the raid after activating a suicide vest. French media have since reported that the woman, named Hasna Aitboulahcen (26), was Abaaoud’s cousin. Aitboulahcen is believed to be the first female suicide bomber in Western Europe. According to reports, the French-Moroccan citizen was born and grew up in Paris. She is understood to have worked at a construction company in the French capital until 2012. According to a witness to the raid, a woman with long, blonde hair, thought to be Aitboulahcen, was seen approaching the window in the apartment about an hour into the siege.  French authorises have indicated that the raid on the flat foiled another attack, which was reportedly planned for the La Defense business quarter of western Paris. The EU’s law enforcement agency, Europol, has warned that further attacks by IS are likely elsewhere in Europe.        

Hours later, French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve disclosed that he had received intelligence that Abaaoud had passed through Greece. He further confirmed that the so-called Islamic State (IS) militant had left for Syria last year, adding that no European Union (EU) states signalled his return. He disclosed that a non-EU state had alerted French officials on Monday that Abaaoud was in Greece. The French minister also implicated Abaaoud in four out of six attacks foiled in France since this spring. The identification of Abaaoud raises serious questions for security services not only in France, but across Europe. Abaaoud was high on both French and Belgian wanted lists and yet he managed to travel from Syria to the heart of Paris without ever leaving a trace.

Investigators are still looking for another suspect, Salah Abdeslam, who is believed to have travelled to Belgium after Friday’s attacks. Earlier on Thursday, Belgian police raided properties linked to Abdeslam and fellow suspected attacker Bilal Hadfi, who was killed on Friday outside the Stade de France stadium. According to Belgian prosecutors, several raids took place in and around Brussels, with Belgian prosecutors reporting that one person has been detained.

On the ground sources have reported that most of the raids in the Belgian capital on Thursday targeted properties in Jette and Molenbeek connected to Bilal Hadfi, a Frenchman who was living in Paris and who was one of the seven attackers killed Friday night. Sources have also reported that a further raid, which targeted an address in the Brussels district of Laeken, was linked to Salah Abdeslam. Speaking to Belgian media, the prosecutor’s office indicated that the raids had been planned for some time and that they are not part of the manhunt. Sources have indicated that Belgian authorities were already investigating Hadfi as he was through to have travelled to Syria.

Meanwhile French Prime Minister Manuel Valls has called for Europe to adopt measures on sharing information about airline passengers as a way of protecting collective security. The call came as France’s lower house of parliament on Thursday voted on a bill to extend the state of emergency, which was declared by President Francois Hollande on Friday for 12 days. The French senate is due to vote on the bill on Friday. The bill includes extending the state of emergency for three months; placing under house arrest anyone deemed to be a public threat; barring suspects from communicating with each other; allowing police to carry out searches at any time, without the prior approval of a judge, if the public is believed to be in danger. Furthermore, under a police directive that was issued to coincide with the state of emergency, French police officers will be allowed to carry their weapons while off duty as long as they wear an armband to identify them. Paris police have extended their ban on gatherings and demonstrations until midnight on Sunday, however they will be allowed at the various sites that were attacked last Friday.

Egypt Increases Airport Security and Detains Two Staff Members after Russia Plane Disaster

On Tuesday, the Egyptian government announced that it is increasing security at airports over the possibility that a Russian plane departing from a Sinai resort was brought down by a bomb late last month.

A statement released by the interior ministry disclosed that “taking into consideration all possible causes behind the plane crash, including the possibility that it was targeted by a terrorist attack, the Egyptian authorities have enhanced security measures in all airports.” The country’s’ interior ministry further disclosed on Tuesday that there was a review of screening measures for passengers and luggage, “and enhancement of search procedures for passengers and workers upon entry into the airport.” The ministry added that “security sweeps” of airplanes would be conducted as well as “reviews of flight crews’ security permits.” The release of the statement came as an Egyptian minister disclosed that a probe into the crash had yet to reach any final conclusions pertaining to the disaster. Speaking at a news conference, Civil Aviation Minister Hossam Kamal stated that “until now the (investigation) committee has not yet arrived to any results indicating the cause of the crash.” The remarks came shortly after officials in Russia announced that a bomb had brought down the aircraft. Alexander Bortnikov, the head of Russia’s FSB, disclosed Tuesday that the conclusion of Russian investigators was that a homemade bomb containing around 1 kg (2 lbs) of TNT had detonated during the flight, which caused the plane to break up in mid air. He further stated that “we can unequivocally say it was a terrorist act.”

The plane, which was flown by Russian firm Kogalymavia, came down shortly after take off from resort Sharm el-Sheikh on 31 October. All 224 people on board were killed in what is Russia’s worst air disaster. The crash prompted Britain to restrict flights to the resort, and Moscow to all Egyptian airports while barring the country’s national carrier EgyptAir from Russia.

It is now known how a bomb would have been smuggled on the plane before it set off from the popular Red Sea resort, however there have been suspicions that it was an inside job. Two security officials and an airport employee disclosed on Tuesday that Egyptian authorities have detained two employees of Sharm el-Sheikh airport for questioning in connection with the downing of the Russian jet. One of the security officials has indicated that “seventeen people are being held, two of them are suspected of helping whoever planted the bomb on the plane at Sharm el-Sheikh airport.” The other security official has disclosed that CCTV footage showed a baggage handler carrying a suitcase from an airport building to another man, who was loading luggage onto the doomed airliner from beneath the plane on the runway. Meanwhile an employee at the airport media department has also confirmed that two members of the ground crew had been detained for questioning on Monday night. It currently remains unclear what role the employees had at the airport, which is the third largest in the country and which handles a vast number of charter and budget flights for tourists visiting the southern Sinai peninsula. In a statement however, the interior and civil aviation ministries’ media departments denied that there had been any arrests.

Separately, other sources at the airport have reported that security forces were searching for two employees who are suspected of leaving a baggage-scanning machine unattended for a period of time while passengers were boarding the Russian plane. Sources have indicated that CCTV footage is being examined in order to confirm what occurred. Sources however have reported that investigators had questioned all the airport staff involved with handling the Russian plane, its passengers and bags after the accident. So far, no arrests have been made in the search for the two employees who were believed to have stepped away from the baggage-scanning machine.

British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has previously stated that failures in security at Sharm el-Sheikh airport may have enabled the attack. According to Hammond, “you don’t need a sophisticated capability to get a small bomb, and that’s all you need to bring down an aircraft, a small bomb with a straightforward timer,” adding that “sadly there are many, many people who can do that. The issue is about getting it air side in an airport that is supposed to be secure…Where this points the finger is at the capability of the security on the ground at Sharm el-Sheikh.”

Last Ebola Patient Discharged From Guinea Hospital

According to health officials, the last known Ebola patient in Guinea has recovered and has been released from a treatment centre in the capital Conakry.

A spokesman for the country’s Ebola co-ordination unit has disclosed that two tests on the patient, a baby, had come back negative. Fode Tass Sylla has disclosed that “the baby is negative and so Guinea today is without a single Ebola patient,” adding, “we are crossing our fingers and praying that nothing will happen over the next 42 days so that we can celebrate Guinea without Ebola.”

Authorities have effectively begun the countdown to the end of the Ebola outbreak in Guinea, which is the last country that was still reporting cases after nearly two years and more than 11,000 deaths worldwide. The World Health Organization (WHO) declares that Ebola disease transmission has ended when the country goes through two incubation periods, 21 days each, without a new case emerging. The other two countries hardest hit by the outbreak, Liberia and Sierra Leone, have already been declared free of the deadly disease, however in Guinea, authorities have reported that they continued to face resistance in fearful communities, where people initially blamed international health workers for bringing the virus to their region.