MS Risk Blog

US Intelligence Reports Indicate IS May Have Planted Bomb in Russian Plane

Days after authorities dismissed claims that the Islamic State (IS) Group brought down a Russian passenger jet on Saturday, a US intelligence analysis has now suggested that either the terror group or one of its affiliates planted a bomb on the plane. On Thursday, Britain also disclosed that there was a significant possibility that IS’ Egyptian affiliate was behind a suspected bomb attack on the Russian airliner that killed 224 people in the Sinai Peninsula. Russia, however, has indicated that such theories remain speculation at this stage, adding that only the official investigation can determine what occurred. Egyptian officials have also disclosed that so far, there is no indication that a bomb was to blame.

On Saturday, Metrojet Flight 9268 crashed in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula after breaking apart in mid-air. It was en route to St Petersburg from the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

Multiple US officials have indicated that the latest US intelligence has suggested that the crash was most likely caused by a bomb that was planted on the plane by IS or an affiliate. One US official has indicted that intelligence also suggests that someone at the Sharm el-Sheikh airport helped get a bomb onto the plane. The official disclosed that “this airport has lax security. It is known for that…But there is intelligence suggesting an assist from someone at the airport.” Officials however have stressed that no formal conclusion has been reached by the US intelligence community and that US officials have not seen forensic evidence from the crash investigation.

Egyptian authorities who are leading the investigation into the crash, have not publicly responded to the US intelligence reports however since the crash, they have downplayed the possibility that this could have been a terrorist attack. Both Egypt and Russia have also stated that any theories are “speculation.”

In the wake of the crash, late on Wednesday, the UK announced that it has suspended flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh. Ireland and the Netherlands have also banned flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh. On Thursday, German airline Lufthansa announced that its subsidiaries Edelweiss and Eurowings are stopping all flights to Sharm el-Sheikh. On Saturday, the airline reported that its planes would no longer fly over the Sinai Peninsula. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, has disclosed that Russian planes are still flying to and from Sharm el-Sheikh airport.

British Prime Minister David Cameron has indicated in the wake of the UK suspending flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh, that it could be “some time” before all British tourists stranded in the tourist destination are home. Sources have disclosed that UK security experts are working with local authorities in order to get Britons home. Monarch airlines has reported that three “rescue flights” will operate on Friday. The airline further indicated that the flights would be in addition to its two scheduled flights. British Airways has also confirmed that it will operate two flights. There are an estimated 20,000 Britons in the Red Sea resort, including 1,000 residents. Extra UK consular staff have been drafted in to Sharm el-Sheikh aiport while a Ministry of Defense source has disclosed that a small team of UK military personnel are in the resort in order to advise Foreign Office officials and Department of Transport officials on logistics and security.

If a bomb did kill 224 passengers and crew aboard the Airbus A321, that would almost certainly undermine Egypt’s tourism industry, which is still recovering from years of political turmoil. On Thursday, security at Sharm el-Sheikh airport appeared to have been tightened, with security forces patrolling the terminals and not allowing drivers, tour agents or others to loiter while awaiting tourist arrivals.

IS Affiliated Group Claims Responsibility for Russian Plane Crash in Egypt

Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi has indicated that claims, put forth by militants linked to the Islamic State (IS) group that they brought down a Russian airliner, are “propaganda.” The Egyptian president however noted that it is too early to say what caused the crash of the Airbus 321.

On Wednesday, in an audio message posted on a Twitter account used by the group, IS’ Egyptian affiliate dismissed doubts that it had downed the Russian passenger plane over Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, stating that it would tell the world how it did so in its own time.   In the message, the speaker stated, “we say to the deniers and the doubters: Die from your frustration. We, with God’s grace, are the ones who brought it down, and we are not obliged to disclose the mechanism of its demise…So go to your wreckage, search, bring your black boxes and analyse, give us the summary of your research and the product of your expertise and prove that we did not bring it down or how it came down,” adding, “we will disclose the mechanism of its demise at the time that we want and in the way that we want.”

The Russian-operated Airbus A321M crashed Saturday just 23 minutes after taking off from the Red Sea resort of Sharm al-Sheikh on its way to St Petersburg. All 224 people on board, most of whom were Russian citizens, were killed. The plane’s flight recorders have been found and have been sent for analysis. Meanwhile, Russian rescue teams have extended the search for bodies and wreckage from the plane to a 40 sq-km (15 sq-km) area, with officials disclosing that drones are being used in order to scan the sandy and hilly terrain.

Sinai Province, which is an Egyptian group that has pledged loyalty to IS, had earlier released a statement, on the same day as the crash, that it had brought down the airliner “in response to Russian airstrikes that killed hundreds of Muslims on Syrian land.” The claim however has been dismissed by both Egyptian and Russian officials. Security experts and investigators have disclosed that the plane is unlikely to have been struck from the outside and that Sinai-based militants are not believed to possess the technology to shoot down a jet from a cruising altitude above 30,000 feet. Russian officials have disclosed that the plane probably broke up in the air, a theory that has opened the prospect of some kind of explosion on board.

On Monday, the airline Kogalymavia, which has just renamed itself Metrojet, blamed “external influence” for the crash, stating that it has ruled out a technical fault or pilot error. According to Alexander Smirnov, “the only (explanation) for the plane to have been destroyed in mid-air can be specific impact, purely mechanical, physical influence on the aircraft,” adding that “there is no such combination of failures of systems which could have led to the plane disintegrating in the air.” He further indicated that the plane lost speed and began descending rapidly, adding that the crew made no attempt to get in contact and report about the situation on board. The head of Russia’s Federal Aviation Agency, Aleksandr Neradko, however has told Russian TV that such talk was premature and “not based on any proper facts.” Egyptian President Sisi has also warned against jumping to conclusions, stating, “all those interested in the matter are welcome to participate in the investigation.” He further stated that “when there is propaganda that it crashed because of ISIS (IS), this is one way to damage the stability and security of Egypt and the image of Egypt. Believe me, the situation in Sinai – especially in this limited area – is under our full control.” The US director of national intelligence, James Clapper, has also indicated that there is no “direct evidence of any terrorist involvement yet,” noting, “its unlikely, but I wouldn’t rule it out.”

In 2011, militants launched an insurgency in the Sinai following the fall of President Hosni Mubarak. The increased their attacks after the military overthrew President Mohammed Morsi in mid-2013. A year ago, the insurgents renamed their movement Sinai Province and pledged alliance to the Islamic State. Since then, hundreds of police and soldiers operating in the region have been killed.

On 30 September, Russia, which is an ally of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, launched air raids against opposition groups in Syria, including IS. The hardline group however has called for war against both Russia and the United States in response to their air strikes in Syria. On Tuesday, IS backers in Iraq issued a video congratulating their Egyptian colleagues and warning Russian President Vladimir Putin that more was to come.

Al-Shabaab Targets Soldiers in Southern Somalia

Al-Shabaab militants have reported that they ambushed a group of military trainees on Monday in a region located southwest of the capital of Mogadishu.

According to the militants, they killed thirty of the military trainees, however the claim has not been independently confirmed. While a Somali military officer did confirm that the ambush occurred, he disclosed that fighting was still on going and that no death toll was immediately available. Ahmed Ibrahim has indicated that “we understand al-Shabaab ambushed the Somali military commando trainees and captured two military pickup trucks,” adding, “it is too early to k now what the casualties are because fighting is still going on in the jungle.” Meanwhile al-Shabaab’s military spokesman, Sheikh Abdiasis Abu Musab, has reported that his group killed thirty commando trainees and seized four military trucks.

The ambush comes just a day after at least thirteen people were killed after al-Shabaab insurgents stormed a hotel in the capital city, where government officials and lawmakers stay.

Al-Shabaab Launch Attack on Hotel in Mogadishu

On Sunday, security forces in Mogadishu fought for several hours before clearing a hotel of al-Shabaab gunmen who had stormed the building after two bombs ripped into it.

At least thirteen people were killed. According to Ahmed Nur, a police officer, a car bomb rammed the entrance to the hotel and was followed by a second blast, which a security guard disclosed was another vehicle bomb. Nur further disclosed that after a gun battle the lasted several hours, the hotel had been cleared of gunmen, adding, “the hotel has ben entirely secured.” Police officials have reported that amongst those killed were the hotel owner, a lawmaker, a former senior military commander, a radio journalist and other civilians. The hotel is located near a busy area in the capital city known as K-4.

Al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility for the assault on the Sahafi hotel, which is where government officials and lawmakers usually frequent. On Sunday, al-Shabaab’s military operations spokesman indicated that “mujahideen entered and took over Sahafi hotel where enemies lived.” The incident mirrored tactics used before by al-Shabaab, in which it detonates bombs in order to break through security at targets and then sends in fighters.

Rwanda’s MP’s Back Constitution to Allow President to Extend Rule

In a move that has been opposed by the United States and other donors, Rwanda’s lower house of parliament on Thursday voted to allow President Paul Kagame to extend his rule beyond a second term, which ends in 2017, and possibly stay on until 2034.

According to lower house speaker Donatilla Mukabalisa, Article 172 of the amended constitution, which would allow the president to extend his rule, was supported by all 75 lawmakers present. The lower house has 80 seats however some lawmakers were absent. Under the amendments, which were approved after debates were held on Wednesday and Thursday, the presidential term will be decreased to five years from seven. Furthermore, while the limit of two terms will remain, an exception is made for the currently president, namely Kagame. According to one lawmaker, who explained the amendment, article 172 effectively allows President Kagame to serve out his seven-year term, which ends in 2017, and also to seek a third seven-year term after that. Furthermore, even beyond that, the president could seek two more five-year terms. President Kagame, who has not explicitly indicated that he wants to run again, stating only that he is open to persuasion, could effectively remain in power until 2034.

While draft amendments to the country’s constitution, which have been approved by the lower house, still need to be backed by the upper house of senators and then put to a referendum, they are not expected to stumble at either stage. Parliament, which is dominated by the president’s backers, debated the issue after a petition calling for changes was signed by 3.7 million supporters of the president. While the country’s main but small opposition, the Democratic Green Party, attempted to block the amendment to extend the president’s term, a court rejected the bid. Critics however have disclosed that the government stifles opposition media and politicians, a charge that officials have denied.