MS Risk Blog

Burkina Faso Releases Preliminary Election Results

The head of the country’s electoral commission disclosed on Monday that Burkina Faso should announce provisional election results on Monday.

Speaking at a news conference late on Sunday, Barthelemy Kere, president of the Independent National Electoral Commission, disclosed that there was a strong turnout in all 45 provinces and that logistical problems at the start of the day were by-and-large resolved, adding that the elections were peaceful.   The electoral commission has announced results for 21 communes, out of a total of 368 communes. The results show that Roch Marc Kabore is in the lead, with Zephirin Diabre in second.

On Sunday, Burkina Faso voted in an election to choose the West African country’s first new president in decades. On the ground sources have reported that people formed long lines at polling stations to vote for the president. Polls closed at 6 PM local time. A second round will be held if no candidate secures a majority. The country’s election commission has disclosed that over five million people are registered to vote, adding that it will publish preliminary results as soon as Monday. A successful election in Burkina Faso would effectively establish the country as a beacon for democratic aspirations in Africa, where veteran leaders in Burundi and Congo Republic have changed constitutions in a bid to pave the way for fresh terms in office. Furthermore, Sunday’s election also represents a turning point for the country, which, for most of its history since gaining independence from France in 1960, has been ruled by leaders who came to power in coups.

Brussels On Edge: Fear at the Heart of a European Capital

Since the attacks in Paris on November 13, Belgium has come under extensive international scrutiny. On November 26, the Belgian Government reduced the threat level in Brussels from 4 (the highest level) to 3. That concluded a five day period during which Brussels came to a virtual standstill. From November 21 to 25, the city was placed on a level 4 terrorism alert with public buildings, schools and public transit systems closed. In addition, the Belgian Government warned people not to gather in public or participate in demonstrations. On November 23, NATO and European Union facilities opened for the week with increased security and only essential personnel working. The headquarters of Belgium’s largest bank, KBC Groep NV, remained closed at the start of the business week.

In a highly unusual decision, the Belgian Government deployed hundreds of members of the Belgian Armed Forces onto the streets of Brussels. Hundreds of Belgian police officers searched for Salah Abdeslam (one of the Paris attackers) and other ISIS operatives. As of November 27, Abdeslam has not been captured and the public has been warned to remain vigilant. Even when the transit system was reopened on November 26, over 200 police officers were deployed at throughout the system. Belgium had previously conducted large counter-terrorism operations in January, but the November Brussels lockdown was far bigger in scale.

The intensity of the Belgian police operations over the past week has been unprecedented. On November 21-22 alone, police conducted at least 20 raids in Brussels and surrounding suburbs. Of the 16 people detained, 15 were ultimately released. The one individual kept in custody was charged on November 23 for his involvement with the Paris attacks and ISIS. Dozens of more police raids followed on November 21, with 21 people being detained with 17 being released. Two of the men arrested in the second round of raids were linked directly to the November 13 Paris Attacks. Hamza Attou and Mohammed Amri admitted they drove Salah Abdeslam from Paris back to Brussels on the evening of November 13. However, they denied any direct involvement with the attacks. Two other men, an unidentified French national and Moroccan national, were arrested in the Molenbeek neighbourhood. According to police, the Moroccan man’s vehicle contained two handguns.

Senior Belgium Ministers have said the increased alert level was due to specific intelligence about possible attacks in the Brussels area. Belgium’s Interior Minister, Jan Jambon, said there were particular fears of an imminent attack on November 22. Foreign Minister Didier Reynders has also stated that Belgian police are searching for “maybe 10 or more people in Belgium, maybe in neighbouring countries, present in the territory to organise some terrorist attacks.” Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel has assured his country that there were no longer imminent fears of a terrorist attack. However, he has warned Belgians that the threat of an attack, particularly in Brussels, is still a serious concern. Though the largest lockdown in modern Belgian history may have ended, anxiety continues to linger about Salah Abdeslam and ISIS.

Al-Shabaab Warns Against Shifting Allegiance to IS

Al-Shabaab insurgents have warned that they will “cut the throat” of members who shift allegiance from al-Qaeda to the so-called Islamic State (IS). The news emerges amidst reports that some factions have already been punished for doing so.

On Monday, in a radio broadcast, top al-Shabaab official Abu Abdalla stated that, “if anyone says he belongs to another Islamic movement, kill him on the spot,” adding, “we will cut the throat of any one…if they undermine unity.” Al-Shabaab, which has been a long-time branch of al-Qaeda in East Africa, is fighting to overthrow the internationally-backed government in Mogadishu. While the insurgents have lost much ground in recent years, they continue to be a threat in both Somalia and neighboring Kenya, where they have carried out a series of deadly attacks.

Reports of divisions within al-Shabaab come at a time when IS in Iraq and Syria has become what many see as being the jihadist franchise of choice. It has attracted fighters from abroad as well as the allegiance of other militant groups, such as Boko Haram, which operates in northeastern Nigeria. However recently, al-Qaeda expanded its territory in Yemen, which is located just across the Gulf of Aden from Somalia, and has proven that the group continues to have the capabilities to carry out deadly attacks despite, to a certain degree, being overshadowed by IS. Sources have reported that while a handful of al-Shabaab factions have switched allegiance from al-Qaeda to IS, the shift has failed to gain momentum. Furthermore, pro-IS groups have been attacked and their leaders assassinated as al-Shabaab emir and al-Qaeda loyalist Ahmed Diriye seeks to shore up his control. Last month, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud disclosed that “the now-public dispute” within al-Shabaab demonstrated that the group had “lost its way.” On Monday however, top al-Shabaab official Abdalla maintained that the insurgent group remained united, stating, “the world wanted us to be divided…This is a collective decision and anybody who wants to join another Islamic group must leave the country to meet them where they are,” adding, “I swear by the name of God we will not tolerate the acts of saboteurs.”

IS Attacks Claim More than 800 Lives Abroad This Year

Over this past year, the so-called Islamic State (IS) group has dramatically expanded its theatre of operations, moving from its hub in Syria and neighbouring Iraq, to either executing or inspiring a series of attacks across three continents that have already claimed more than 800 lives this year.

The mayhem that has been created by those attacks, which include the downing of a Russian airline and gun and suicide bombings in Paris France, has attracted a lot of attention. Furthermore, the scope of the recent attacks, coupled with the number of those killed and wounded, has demonstrated a level of sophistication and determination. The attacks have also revealed the extents to which the group is willing to go in a bid to surpass al-Qaeda and to prove itself the most dominant jihadi movement on the planet. Furthermore, last week’s announcement by IS that it had killed Norwegian and Chinese capital reflects its intention to continue to kidnap and kill hostages inside its self-declared “caliphate” in Syria and Iraq while at the same time pursuing mass casualty attacks abroad.

Over the past year, thousands of people have been killed by IS militants both in Syria and in neighbouring Iraq in mass executions, bombings and other attacks.

Timeline of attacks outside of Syria and Iraq this year:

• 13 November – At least 129 people are killed in Paris with over 350 wounded, most at a concert hall, but some at trendy restaurants and several near a national Stadium. IS claims the attack, which is the worst in the history of Paris, calling it retaliation for France’s ongoing role in US-led airstrikes that have targeted IS operations in both Syria and Iraq.
• 12 November – Powerful twin suicide bombings targeted a crowded Shi’ite neighbourhood in Beirut. At least 43 people are killed and more than 200 are wounded. IS claims responsibility for the attack.
• 31 October – A bomb downs a Russian airliner just 23 minutes after it takes off from the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. The plane was en route to St Petersburg, Russia. The plane crashes in the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula, which is home to a potent IS affiliate. All 224 people on board, most of them Russian tourists, are killed. IS claims the attack.
• 10 October – Two suicide bombings kill at least 100 people at a peaceful rally in Ankara, Turkey. While the attack has not been claimed by IS, Turkish prosecutors investigating the attack have disclosed that it was carried out by a local IS cell.
• 6 October – Suicide car bombing targeted exiled Yemeni officials and the Saudi and Emirati troops baking their efforts to retake the country kill at least fifteen people in the port city of Aden. A new IS affiliate claimed responsibility for the attack, which officials had earlier blamed on Yemen’s Shi’ite rebels.
• 6 August – A suicide bomber attacks a mosque inside a police compound in western Saudi Arabia. Fifteen people are killed in what is the deadliest attack on the kingdom’s security forces in years. Eleven of the dead belonged to an elite counterterrorism unit whose tasks include protecting the hajj pilgrimage. The attack was later claimed by IS.
• 26 June – A gunman killed 38 tourists, mostly Britons, in the coastal resort of Sousse, Tunisia.
• A bomb rips through one of Kuwait’s oldest Shi’ite mosques during Friday prayers, killing 27 people. This is the first major militant attack to take place in Kuwait in more than two decades. The attack is claimed by IS.
• In a third attack that same day, a truck driver once known for radical Islamic ties crashes into a US-owned chemical warehouse in southern France and hangs his employer’s severed head on a factory gat, along with banners with Arabic inscriptions.
• 29 May – A suicide bomber disguised as a woman blows himself up in the parking lot of a Shi’ite mosque in the Saudi Arabian port city of Damman, killing four people. IS later claimed responsibility for the attack
• 22 May – A suicide bomber strikes a Shi’ite mosque in eastern Saudi Arabia as worshippers commemorate the birth of a revered saint. Twenty-one people are killed in the attack and dozens are left injured. The attack occurred in the eastern Qatif region, which is the heartland of Saudi Arabia’s Shi’ite Muslim minority. The attack, which was claimed by IS, was the deadliest militant assault in the kingdom in more then a decade.
• 18 April – Afghan President Ashraf Ghani blames IS for a suicide bombing in the country that killed at least 35 people and wounded 125 others.
• 20 March – An emerging IS affiliate in Yemen claims responsibility for a series of suicide bombings that kill 137 people and wound 345.
• 18 March – Extremist gunmen open fire on foreign tourists at Tunisia’s National Bardo Museum, killing 22 people in the country’s worst attack on civilians in thirteen years. IS later claimed responsibility for the attack.

Somali Pirates Hijack Iranian Vessel

According to a Somali official and a maritime expert, Somali pirates have hijacked an Iranian fishing vessel with fifteen crew members on board. The hijacking comes midst warnings that piracy in the Indian Ocean region may be making a comeback.

Abdirizak Mohamed Dirir, director of the anti-piracy and seaport ministry in Puntland, a semi-autonomous region in Somalia, has disclosed that “pirates hijacked an Iranian-flagged fishing vessel with its 15 crew from near Eyl,” a city located in northern Somalia. John Steed, East African region manager for Oceans Beyond Piracy, has also confirmed the hijacking, adding that the vessel is called Muhammidi.

While there are still occasional cases of sea attacks, piracy near Somalia’s coast has largely subsided in the past three years. This is mainly due to shipping firms hiring private security details coupled with the presence of international warships.