Leaders Warn of Possible IS Expansion into War-Torn Libya

The so-called Islamic State (IS) group has built a base in Libya, from which to exploit tribal conflicts and expand across Africa, though experts have said that the jihadists remain vulnerable even if the West’s attention is elsewhere.

Since the overthrow and death of dictator Moamer Kadhafi, Libya has collapsed into a chaotic country, which has seen militias competing against one another for control. The country’s current insecurity has made it an ideal place for IS to expand into. While Libya not only offers an alternative base for the group, if it is forced out of its current territory in Syria and Iraq, many experts fear that it could also take advantage of the ongoing tribal conflicts and could expand southwards into the Sahel desert region of central Africa, particularly Chad, Niger and Sudan. According to one expert, “IS is provoking tensions and making alliances,” particularly between the competing Tuareg and Toubou tribes.

While for now, IS has only a limited foothold in Libya, it is enough to project violence into neighbouring states, particularly Tunisia, where the group has already claimed three deadly attacks this year.   Furthermore, Libya lies just 800 kilometres (500 miles) across the Mediterranean from Italy, and is a route for thousands of refugees, which is another weakness that IS militants could exploit.

Within Libya, IS jihadists have gradually built up control of several towns that were of minimal interest to other militias already operating in the country. Most notably is Kadhafi’s coastal home town of Sirte, which is located east of Tripoli. According to Geoff Porter, head of the US-based North Africa Risk Consultancy, “Libya without a state is not really a functioning place. IS in Libya would be vulnerable to the same problems as the Kadhafi regime – including the need to import 70 percent of its food – and there’s a much smaller population from which to extort revenue and taxes,” adding, “were they to be eradicated in Syria and Iraq, they could try to relocate the bulk of their activities to Libya, but they would be a potentially more manageable threat.” The country’s long coastline and desert plains effectively leaves IS vulnerable to outside attack. However as in Syria and Iraq, the major problem for the West will be finding partners on the ground to fight IS militants. Libya currently has two governments who are vying for power: a militia alliance, which includes Islamists, that overran Tripoli in August 2014; and the internationally recognized administration that fled to eastern Libya. While Western efforts have focused on fostering a reconciliation between the tow sides, hoping that they will then turn their firepower on IS and other jihadist groups that operate in the country, months of UN-brokered talks have made minimal regress. For now, IS has been held in check by the armed opponents that operate in the country. IS was driven out of the city of Dernam in June by an al-Qaeda affiliate. It is also jostling for control in other areas.

Despite the threat that IS could take over Libya, there is little chance that the West will intervene in Libya any time soon as its attention is almost entirely focused on Syria. However there have been some international leaders who have warned of the growing threat. Amongst the few leaders to focus on Libya is Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who warned last week that it could be the “next emergency.” The Untied States has also been quietly targeting IS in the country. It has claimed to have killed its Libyan leader, Abu Nabil, with a drone strike that targeted a compound in Derna on 13 November.

Two American Jihadists Arrested in Somalia

The US State Department has revealed that an American resident, a Minnesota man named Mohamed Abdullahi Hassan, who joined al-Shabaab in Somalia more than seven years ago, surrendered to Somalia’s federal government on 6 November. This report comes just a day after an African Union official confirmed that another American was arrested in Somalia.

It is not immediately clear why Mohamed Abdullahi Hassan’s arrest was not announced earlier. Hassan was a lawful permanent resident of the US but not an American citizen. He had been fighting with al-Shabaab however recently went online to urge others to carry out violence on behalf of IS. A State Department spokeswoman has disclosed that Hassan is in the custody of the Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency in Mogadishu, adding that the US is discussing the case with the Somali Federal Government. The spokeswoman noted that Washington does not have an extradition agreement with Somalia.

On Monday 7 December, Somali security forces arrested an American who was fighting with the Islamic extremist group al-Shabaab. According to African Union (AU) spokesman Col. Paul Njuguna, Abdimalik Jones, who has said that he is from San Diego, was arrested in the southern port of Barawe, which is located southwest of Mogadishu. An official with Somali security forces has reported that Jones claimed that he fled al-Shabaab because of rifts within the rebel group, adding that he fled following his decision to pledge allegiance to al-Qaeda’s main rival, the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. An official has disclosed that Jones is missing the index finger of his right hand and that he does not speak any Somali, adding that he had been fighting with the al-Qaeda-linked group for several years in Somalia. Reports have indicated that he admitted to taking part in the attack at Garissa university in neighboring Kenya earlier this year, which left nearly 150 people dead. The arrest of an American comes amidst signs of increasing tensions within al-Shabaab between Somali and foreign fighters over whether the insurgents should remain aligned with al-Qaeda or should switch allegiance to IS.

The defections of two fighters, an American who was arrested earlier this week and the US resident, highlight tensions within al-Shabaab, with analysts indicating that the tensions are over whether the militant group should remain affiliated to al-Qaeda or whether it should switch allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. According to sources, foreign fighters are being alienated and feel trapped in Somalia over suspicions that they are plotting to switch allegiance to IS, which is fighting in Syria and Iraq. Sources have further reported that the “ambitions” by some foreign fighters within al-Shabaab to join IS have led to them being isolated within the group, with some even facing death at the hands of their comrades-in-arms. Late last month, al-Shabaab’s leadership declared that fighters acting in contravention with the mainstream stand to be aligned with al-Qaeda would represent “Bid’ah,” or misguidance, which would lead to them being killed.

The arrests of the two Americans comes as the Pentagon confirmed that a top al-Shabaab military commander was killed in a US airstrike on 2 December.

According to Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis, Abdirhaman Sandhere, also known as ‘Ukash,” was heavily involved in operations in Barawe, Lower Shabelle region and was killed in the village of Kunyo Barrow, which is located near the capital Mogadishu. Davis has disclosed that “’Ukash’s removal from the battlefield is a significant blow to al-Shabaab and reflects the painstaking work by our intelligence, military and law enforcement professionals,” adding, “this is an important step forward in the fight against al-Shabaab, and the United States will continue to use the tools at our disposal – financial, diplomatic, intelligence and military – to dismantle al-Shabaab and other terrorist groups who threaten United States interests and persons.”

Nigeria Likely to Miss Boko Haram Deadline

While Nigeria’s government vowed earlier this year to end Boko Haram’s six-year insurgency by this month, the fast approaching deadline looks likely to be missed with hit-and-run attacks continuing as the militant group in recent weeks has increased its tempo of attacks in the Lake Chad region despite a regional response, which so far has shown little sign of effect.

In August, newly elected President Muhammadu Buhari gave his military commanders until December to build on apparent gains in recapturing territory, which was seized by the insurgents in 2014. However despite further claims successes since then there has been no let-up in deadly suicide and bomb attacks. Regional analysts are now reporting that it will be nearly impossible for the government and military to meet the deadline as “Boko Haram is still in control of Borno North senatorial district,” adding that “there are still attacks occurring in Chibok, Buratia, Gwoza (in Borno state) and Buni Yadi (in Yobe), as well as in the Gulak region of northern Adamawa.” Despite the ongoing attacks, the Nigerian army has maintained that it has control of the situation, however the weekend announcement of the arrest of about a dozen suspects, which army officials disclosed were part of Bok Haram “sleeper cells” in the capital Abuja, has increased concerns that the ongoing military operations are pushing Boko Haram insurgents further out of northeastern Nigeria and into not only neighbouring states, including Niger, Cameroon and Chad, but further south, to areas that have been less affected by the insurgency. Furthermore, military officials have also disclosed that they have again begun operations against Boko Haram bases “deep inside” the Sambisa Forest in Borno, despite indications that fighters have now moved to islands on Lake Chad.

While President Buhari, a retired army general and former military ruler, has consistently vowed to approach the ongoing conflict differently from his predecessors, many were surprised that he had imposed such a deadline. The previous administration under former President Goodluck Jonathan had made repeated pledges of a swift end to the conflict. However all of these pledges came and went, which affected the government’s and military’s credibility. While President Buhari promised to restructure the county’s military, which was hit by complaints that money and weapons were not reaching frontline troops despite massive government defense spending, there have been minimal signs of an immediate overhaul. So far the major changes have been the redeployment of the high command to the Borno state capital, Maiduguri, and a claimed upsurge in the morale of troops.

Since announcing the deadline in August, President Buhari has been more cautious. In September, he warned that guerrilla-style tactics would persist, while on Monday, he told army top brass that the deadline “should serve as a guide.” The ongoing conflict in northeastern Nigeria, and its spread to neighbouring countries, has proven the underlining need for a multilateral response and greater coordination rather than unilateral action. The Nigerian military has been focusing on defeating Boko Haram as a conventional fighting force. However little has been done in order to tackle the root causes of the insurgency. Furthermore, a coordinated, regional approach to ending the insurgency still looks far off despite an increasing wave of suicide and bomb attacks outside Nigeria. A new 8,700-strong multi-national Joint Task Force (MNJTF), comprising of troops from Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Benin, was supposed to have been deployed in Late July however the African Union (AU)-backed force has yet to start operations, with no reason given for the lengthening delay and questions over whether the countries have the resources to commit.

Triple Suicide Bombing On Chadian Side of Lake Chad Region

According to a Chadian security source, a triple suicide bombing on an island in Lake Chad on Saturday killed at least 27 people and left more than eighty wounded in what is another apparent strike carried out by Boko Haram fighters despite an ongoing regional offensive to stop the insurgency.

The source has reported that “three suicide bombers blew themselves up in three different places at the weekly market on Loulou Fou, an Island in Lake Chad,” adding that the explosions had killed 30 people, including the three attackers, and injured more than eighty others. On 9 November, N’Djamena declared a state of emergency in the flashpoint region of Lake Chad, which also straddles Cameroon, Nigeria and Niger and which has been frequently targeted by Nigerian-based Boko Haram fighters, who this year declared allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. The decree effectively granted the governor of the remote region the authority to ban the circulation of people and vehicles as well as to search homes and to seize arms. In a statement, the European Union (EU) disclosed that Saturday’s attacks were “a threat to the stability of the country and the region.” The bloc further indicated that it stood ready to “use all available means to help in the fighting against terrorism” in the region. WeDespite the state of emergency in the region, attacks have continued and have proven Boko Haram’s continued desire to carry out deadly attacks despite loosing territory in northeastern Nigeria. In recent months, Boko Haram fighters have stepped up their attacks and suicide bombings on Chadian villages in the lake region that lie close to the frontier with Nigeria. The deadliest attack on the Chadian side of the lake occurred on 10 October. According to officials in N’Djamena, it was another triple suicide that resulted in the deaths of 41 people at Baga Sola. Since the beginning of this year, the Chadian army has been on the frontline of a regional military operation against Boko Haram, whose attacks have spread from northeastern Nigeria to the country’s three Lake Chad neighbors. The joint operation of the four Lake Chad countries, plus Benin, has involved 8,700 soldiers, police and civilians.

Brazilian authorities seek $5.2B from Samarco and its co-owners for burst dam

On November 1, Brazil’s government filed a 7.2 billion dollar lawsuit against the mining company Samarco and its co-owners, Australia’s BHP Billiton and Vale, to clean up the damage caused by the mine catastrophe in state of Minas Gerais.

In a speech to the climate change summit in Paris on Monday, Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff blamed the disaster on the “irresponsible action of the company”. “We are severely punishing those responsible for this tragedy” she said.

The dam, holding waste water from Samarco mine in south-eastern Brazil, burst on November 5, killing 16 people and injuring 45. The closest village to the dam, Bento Rodrigues, was completely destroyed. The city council had to evacuate about 600 people from the village to higher ground. The mine waste also reached another village called Paracatú de Baixo. There was no warning so residents had to run for their lives as they realised the dam had collapsed.

According to a pair of United Nations experts, the avalanche of mud unleashed by the dam failure contained high levels of toxic heavy metals and other toxic chemicals. These findings contradicted repeated statements by the mining companies responsible for the dam that chemicals released by the accident were harmless. “The scale of the environmental damage is the equivalent of 20,000 Olympic swimming pools of toxic mud waste contaminating the soil, rivers and water system of an area covering over 850 kilometres,” the U.N. agency’s special rapporteur John Knox said in a statement.

Environment Minister Izabella Teixeira said the toxic mud had devastated forests over a large area. The initial reports showed that an area of at least 9 square kilometres of natural vegetation was destroyed. The mud caused destruction along the path of the River Doce, which meets the Atlantic Ocean in the state of Espirito Santo, some 500 kilometres away from the area where the dam collapsed. Teixeira said a full study will be carried out by the Environmental Agency Ibama in 2016, once the rainy season is over. On November 17, Samarco agreed to pay the Brazilian government 260 million dollars in compensation for the disaster. The money will be used to cover initial clean-up and to help the victims and their families.

According to the Brazilian Committee on Dams, the dam breach near Mariana may be the most severe ever recorded in the country. The biggest dam breach recorded before this disaster was in Itabirito, Brazil, in 1986, when 7 people died.