MS Risk Blog

Ongoing Insecurity in Lake Chad Region Stretches Aid Agencies

Aid agencies have reported that a series of suicide bombings in Lake Chad in recent months, which have all been blamed on Boko Haram insurgents, has hindered healthcare and aid delivery, effectively leaving tens of thousands of displaced people living in fear of further violence.

In early December, four female suicide bombers attacked the island of Koulfoua, killing at least fifteen people and injuring a further 130 in what is just the latest in a wave of bombings that prompted the Chadian government last month to declare a state of emergency in the Lake Chad region.

While Chad has been instrumental in forcing Boko Haram to cede territory earlier this year, ongoing operations in northeastern Nigeria have effectively forced Boko Haram militants to seek shelter elsewhere. Reports have indicated that while some have used the porous borders to slip into Cameroon, Chad and Niger in a bid to remain safe, experts believe that most militants are hiding on islands located on Lake Chad. The swampy maze of islands in the border areas between Chad, Cameroon, Niger and Nigeria has now become a main target for the militant Islamist group.

According to medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), more than 50,000 people have been forced to leave their homes due to the violence and threat of further attacks, which has hampered the provision of supplies and healthcare to those in need. According to Federica Alberti, MSF head of mission in Chad, “living conditions were already poor and there was a lack of healthcare before the attack, which have left people living in fear,” further adding that “it is challenging to respond in the region because we know more attacks will happen, but do not know when and where, and we can’t go everywhere due to security constraints.” The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has also disclosed that new restrictions aimed at stopping attacks, such as bans on motorised canoes, enforced after the state of emergency was extended until March, have also hindered access for aid agencies.

The UN World Food Programme (WFP) has also disclosed that the violence in the region has disrupted livelihoods including fishing and farming, and has hit cross-border trade and markets, adding that this has left one in ten of those uprooted without enough to eat. According to Mary-Ellen McGroarty, WFP country director for Chad, “we are dealing with a harsh climate and environment in a region which has limited infrastructure and development…it is a humanitarian crisis on top of a development crisis.”

While Lake Chad countries, backed by Benin, have vowed to defeat Bok Haram by using members of an 8,700-strong regional task force, security sources have disclosed that there are growing sings that national armies are instead acting alone.

Saudi Arabia Announces Islamic Anti-Terrorism Coalition

On 15 December, Saudi Arabia announced that thirty-four mainly Islamic nations have joined a new military alliance aimed at fighting terrorism. News of the alliance comes amidst international pressure for Gulf Arab states to do more in the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS) group.

State media have reported that a joint operations centre is to be established in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. According to Saudi Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman, the new alliance would co-ordinate efforts against extremists in Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, Libya and Syria. Prince Mohammed has further disclosed that the decision to form such an alliance “…comes from the Islamic world’s vigilance in fighting this disease (Islamic extremism) which has damaged the Islamic world.” He further added that “currently, every Muslim country is fighting terrorism individually…so co-ordinating efforts is very important.” While few other details about the coalition have been released, Prince Mohammed has disclosed that the coalition would not just focus on fighting IS.

The SPA state news agency has report that then other “Islamic countries” had expressed support, including Indonesia, with Prince Mohammed stating that “these countries have procedures to go through before joining the coalition, but out of keenness to achieve this coalition as soon as possible, (the alliance of) 34 countries has been announced.” In announcing the coalition, the SPA indicated that Islam forbids “corruption and destruction in the world” and that terrorism represents “ a serious violation of human dignity and rights, especially the right to life and the right to security.”

The list of 34 members is the following: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Benin, Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Gabon, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Morocco, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Palestinians, Qatar, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria are not part of the coalition. Saudi Arabia is already part of the US-led coalition against IS and is also leading a military intervention in Yemen against Shia Houthi rebels.

Ugandan Politicians Raise Fears of Violence Ahead of Next Month’s Presidential Polls

On Saturday, Ugandan political candidates raised fears of violence ahead of presidential polls next month, with accusations of police brutality and claims that opposition groups are organization milita forces.

Seven opposition candidates are vying to end President Yoweri Museveni’s 30-year rule in the 18 February poll. Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, currently faces his stiffest opposition from Kizza Besigye, a three-time loser for the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), and Amama Mbabazi, a former prime minister and ruling party stalwart who now leads the Go-Forward party. All sides are accusing each other of arming militas in a bid to press their claim to political power. Last week, Prime Minister Ruhakana Rugunda warned, “we are following up reports that a small group of the radical opposition are talking and planning violent actions during and after the election.” He further indicated that the “government has established that some of these groups, under the guise of training agents to protect their votes, are raising semi-milita groups,” adding, “these groups, we have learnt, are being prepared to incite provocation and violent confrontations, starting on polling day until the swearing ceremony in case they lose the lections.” Opposition leaders however have dismissed these claims, and in turn have accused security forces of backing the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) to harass the president’s rival. According to Kizza Besigye, who has called on the president to “stop using police and other state apparatus to intimidate, harass, arrest our supporters,” “the trend of violence has left us worried.” Ex Prime Minister Mbabazi has also disclosed that “we have seen acts of violence wherever we have been. Police have used teargas and live bullets to stop our rallies…We ask President Museveni to stop these acts. If he does not act, then people will be forced to rise up and who knows what comes out. We have seen such situations elsewhere turning violent and Uganda is no exception.” Police chief Kale Kayihura has stated that police have recruited around a million civilians as “crime preventers,” describing them as “part of the police effort to enforce community policing.” Opposition politicians however say that the teams are partisan and back the ruling NRM. All eight candidates are due to hold a live televised debate on 15 January.

CAR Party Calls for Manual Recount of First-round Votes

On Monday, the Movement for the Liberation of the Central African People (MLPC) party disclosed that a top candidate in presidential elections, Martin Ziguele, wants a manual recount of the first-round votes because of alleged irregularities.

According to the party, Ziguele, a former prime minister who came fourth out of thirty hopefuls in the 30 December vote, plans to go to the Constitutional Court in a bid to “demand a manual recount of the voting slips.” The party has accused the National Authority for Elections (ANE) of breaching the electoral code as it released figures “each day muddling up different (administrative districts) with varying rates of vote counting, rendering any checks and follow-up impossible.” Provisional first-round results have shown that former government heads Georges Dologuele and Faustin Archange Touadera are posed to face off for presidential office in the sound round on 31 January after leading the field. However Ziguele has argued that the jumbled release of results made it “impossible for each candidate to verify that all votes in their favor, constituency by constituency, polling station by polling station, have been fully taken into account.” A statement released by the MLPC further indicated that the party questioned “a sharp and unjustified fall in the number of votes” between partial results that were issued on 6 January and the full provisional figure, which was released the following day. According to the MLPC, around 230,000 votes went “uncounted and thus were not attributed to candidates.” The latest tensions surrounding the presidential elections come after a score of presidential candidates last week denounced alleged fraud in the election and called for a halt to the process. Eighteen of those candidates went on to jointly back Touadera, an outsider which they called “the only real political alternative.”

Xenophobia Spreading Across Europe Since Paris Attacks

Xenophobic tendencies have been growing for a long time across Europe with race-hatred related crimes being reported frequently and an increased support for anti-immigration parties, especially since the influx of migrants increased to extreme numbers and it became an issue. An upswing of these tendencies in everyday life, incidents of discrimination and general behaviour towards strangers of different cultures has been noticeable after the terrorist attacks in Paris in November. It appears Muslims are taking the hardest blow because there is a tendency to link terrorism to Islam. Tell Mama, a project recording anti-Muslim crimes in the UK, published reports in November revealing a 300% increase of hate crimes directed at Muslims since the Paris attacks. Perhaps this, if anything, confirms the theory that people tend to fear what they don’t know. The question is where does it stop? How much discrimination can be accepted because people are afraid after 13^th of November? Early in December a Moroccan man who was praying and watching a religious movie prior to the take-off on a Paris-bound Air France flight from Copenhagen’s airport was forced to leave the aircraft due to a complaint by another passenger. The man had to take another flight to his country after having his luggage search by airport police, upon which nothing suspicious was found. In Northern Ireland, journalist Angela Rainey conducted a social experiment after having noticed the high number of hate-crimes aimed at Muslim women. A mother in Antrim, reportedly told her child that nightmares would follow if looking at women wearing burqa, and referring to them as “mental”. Rainey has described incidents where she was called a “terrorist” and told she was “not in [her] own country now”. She also noted how security guards and policemen were suspicious towards her, while others accused her of trying to break into cars and told her to take her veil off. In early December, in southern England, a Muslim man was asked to leave National Express coach following a complaint from a fellow passenger, who said she would feel “uncomfortable” travelling with him because of his religion. A staff member is then said to have stepped in to ask the man to get off the coach service. A spokesperson for the National Express said: “We categorically deny an incident in which a passenger was asked to leave one of our coaches was in any way Islamophobic”, claiming that the man was asked to leave because of a dispute over his luggage. However, fellow passengers who witnessed the incident claim to have overheard the conversation between the woman and the driver, and insist that the man was asked to leave because of his religion and not because of his luggage. The xenophobia doesn’t just show in incidents of discrimination, but also in crimes. A man in Leeds allegedly tried to buy pigs’ heads and feet from a butcher because he wanted to desecrate mosques. According to the Armley butcher, a smartly-dressed man walked in saying he wanted to buy all the pigs’ heads and feet that he could, and when asked why, he said: ‘Because I want to desecrate as many mosques as possible’. In other European countries anti-immigration marches have been taking place in protest against the influx of refugees. In Finland demonstrators have even been seen wearing Ku Klux Klan masks while marching in the area of Kempele, a small town that was shook by the rape of a teenager, allegedly carried out by man from a migrant centre. Locals in the area have said that they have changed their behaviour since the incident, and out of fear have started escorting their children to school even though they never did in the past, while others say they are avoiding unknown areas after dark. In some, the fear has clearly turned into rage, and refugees have been compared to the Finnish deserters during wartime, whom normally ended up getting shot. Others have said young men should be swapped for refugees who need the help more, like families, women and children.

Hate crimes and acts of discrimination signal a growing popular discontent with the influx of migrants and it is equally clear from the political opinion as the support for anti-immigration- and far right wing parties across Europe have increased steadily. In October Poland elected one of Europe’s most right-wing parliaments, kicking out the long ruling centrists. Earlier on last year the anti-EU, anti-immigration People’s Party in Denmark gained huge support, while in neighbouring Sweden the Sweden Democrats, a party started in the late 1980s as a white supremacist group, has steadily risen in polls, and become one of the country’s most popular parties. In Austria the far-right Freedom Party came second during regional elections in the summer. These political parties have had a tendency to speak of the consequences the influx of refugees will have on their countries, fuelling the already lit spark of fear. In Poland Law and Justice party figure and former Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski warned that Muslim refugees would bring parasites and diseases, while in the Sweden Democrats’ leader Jimmie Åkesson stated last year that “Islamism is the Nazism and Communism of our time.” Hungary’s Viktor Orban has said that the refugees entering Europe “look like an army.” These are just some examples. The long-term discontent with the influx of migrants has been fuelled by the fear of terrorism since the Paris attacks and it is to a larger extent considered a realistic threat that hiding among refugees is a way for terrorists to enter Europe. This has led countries to oppose the quota system, some have altered it and suggested only Christian refugees are welcome, while others have built walls and closed borders. Some are convinced the far-right parties are here to stay, that this is their time.