MS Risk Blog

Rise in Child Bombers in Nigeria

The United Nations child agency has reported that Boko Haram’s use of child bombes has increased over the last year, with one in five suicide attacks being carried out by children.

According to a new report, girls, who are often drugged, were behind three-quarters of such attacks that were committed by the militant Islamist group in Cameroon, Chad and Nigeria. This represents an 11-fold increase, with four such attacks carried out in 2014, compared to 44 the next year, including January 2016. Analysts note that this change in tactics reflects the group’s loss of territory in Nigeria over the past several months. A regional offensive by Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon last year drove Boko Haram from much of its territory it held in northern Nigeria, effectively undermining its six-year campaign to carve out an Islamist caliphate. Despite this loss of territory, the militants have struck back with suicide bombing and hit-and-run attacks targeting civilians.

Meanwhile aid agency Mercy Corps reported on Monday that Boko Haram has lured young entrepreneurs and business owners in northeastern Nigeria to join the Islamist group by providing or promising capital and loans to boost their businesses. According to Mercy Corps, seeing successful business ownership as a way to escape poverty, many Nigerian youths, ranging from butchers and beauticians to tailors and traders, have accepted loans for their businesses in return for joining Boko Haram. The report from the US-based aid agency notes however that this lure of business support is often a trap, as those who cannot repay their loans are either forced to join the militants or are killed. Report author and Mercy Corps peacebuilding adviser Lisa Inks has disclosed that “Boko Haram is tapping into the yearning of Nigerian youth to get ahead in an environment of massive inequality,” adding, “it is incredibly clever – either such loans breed loyalty or Boko Haram use mafia style tactics to trap and force young people to join them.”

According to the latest statistics released by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics, six in ten Nigerians live in absolute poverty, on less than one dollar a day, a figure which rises to three quarters of the population in the northeastern region of the country. Many young people told Mercy Corps that they would struggle without the support of powerful “godfathers” to provide capital for their businesses, or cash transfers for equipment and goods. Mercy Corps, which conducted interviews with 145 people including young former Boko Haram members, family of former members and youths who resisted joining, has reported that Bok Haram has therefore been able to fill a critical gap in financial services.

The report has called for increased access to financial and business services, more support for conflict-hit communities and greater efforts to reintegrate people who have fled the militant group.

Guinea Ebola Case Toll Climbs to Seven

Despite the World Health Organization (WHO) voicing confidence that remaining isolated cases of Ebola could be contained, health officials confirmed on Wednesday 30 March that a resurgence of the deadly virus in a rural Guinean community has killed seven people. The news comes just a day after the WHO reported that the Ebola outbreak in West Africa no longer constituted a international emergency.

The announcement of new cases demonstrates the continued difficulty of managing the aftermath of the virus. The death of a man, two of his wives and his daughter were announced by Guinean health authorities two weeks ago. On Wednesday, they confirmed that a third wife and a mother-in-law also died after becoming infected in the village of Korokpara. According to Fode Tass Sylla, spokesman for Guinea’s Ebola response unit, “on March 30, there are nine registered cases and seven deaths: three suspected and four confirmed.” Outside the family, a man died on 22 March after testing positive for the virus in the city of N’Zerekore. Sylla further disclosed that two more people, one suspected case and one confirmed, were receiving treatment at a dedicated Ebola facility in southern Guinea, not far from the border with Liberia. More than a thousand people who are believed to have come into contact with the victims are being monitored for symptoms and offered support by the authorities, with restrictions placed on their movements.

While the country was declared free of Ebola transmission at the end of last year, a significant number of deaths are believed to have gone unreported and flare-ups relating to the persistence of the virus in survivors’ bodies pose ongoing challenges. A WHO report on Ebola, which was released on Wednesday, disclosed that the virus present in the blood of one of the confirmed cases was “closely relate to (the) virus that circulated in southeastern Guinea in November 2014.” In its report, the WHO warned that “additional cases are likely because of the large number of contacts. Those most at risk are also being vaccinated against the virus.

The Tentative EU-Turkey Agreement on Migrants is Holding – For Now

On April 8, the recent EU-Turkey agreement on migration achieved a modest milestone. Two ferries carried over 120 migrants from the Greek island of Lesbos to the Turkish mainland. Earlier this week, on April 4, two ferries carried 202 migrants from the Greek islands of Lesbos and Chios to Turkey. That same day, 32 Syrian migrants travelled from Turkey to Germany. Of the deportations conducted thus far, a large portion have been migrants of Pakistani, Afghan or North African origin. The migrants travelling officially from Turkey to Europe have mainly been Syrian nationals. If this practice continues, it will address the long-standing complaint by many European politicians that many of the arriving migrants were not legitimate refugees from conflict zones.

Despite these successes, Europe’s migration-related challenges are far from over. There have been reports that nearly one third of the 52,000 migrants in Greece have not moved to the newly designated processing facilities. Large numbers of migrants remain living in unofficial, makeshift camps near the port of Piraeus and at the northern border with Macedonia. The Greek Government has issued an ultimatum requiring the migrants living near Pireaus to disperse within two weeks or be removed by force. It remains unclear how exactly such dispersals would take place without violent protests. As recently as April 1, 8 people were injured during a clash at one of the migrant camps near Pireaus.

For the EU-Turkey agreement to ultimately be successful, it will require careful coordination and sustained support for the Greek Government. Greek officials have criticized that support for being slow to arrive. Earlier this week, there were numerous complaints that less than half of the 2300 Frontex personnel (the EU’s border agency) had been deployed as promised.

There have also been continued divisions regarding proposed reforms to the EU’s asylum system. The European Commission had argued that the Dublin placed incredible stress on Italy and Greece by requiring migrants to claim asylum in the first EU country they reach. One proposal would be the creation of a permanent fairness mechanism to redistribute asylum seekers throughout the European Union away from the frontline countries bordering the Mediterranean. Other potential reform policies include legal penalties against irregular movement by non-EU nationals or a central distribution system that allocate asylum claimants though a comprehensive quota scheme. However, the Czech Republic and United Kingdom have both officially announced their opposition to any major reform of the current policy. As anti-migrant sentiment continues to grow across Europe, any of the proposed reforms could prove highly controversial and difficult to implement. Despite the initial successes of the EU-Turkey deal, a truly long term solution to the migrant crisis remains elusive.

Over a Dozen Killed in Post Election Violence in Republic of Congo

The government reported on Tuesday, 5 March that at least seventeen people died Monday in fighting in the capital Brazzaville, adding that they had been killed in a “terror attack” and the subsequent “rapid intervention” by security forces.”

Government spokesman Thierry Moungalla posted on Twitter Tuesday that “three members of the security forces, two civilians and 12 attackers” were killed in the unrest that occurred in the city’s south, adding that “six members of the security forces were inured, as well as some civilians. The number is being evaluated.” Moungalla also stated that six police stations, a town hall and two customs checkpoints were torched along with many vehicles, adding that attackers had made off with “weapons of war and ammunition.” He also stated that “in the course of the police operation during the assault, security forces arrested around fifty former milita members, the perpetrators of the attack,” adding that officials have identified them as former members of the disbanded Ninja Nsiloulou milita. The Ninjas is a rebel group that fought two civil wars in the 1990’s. It is headed by Protestant preacher Frederic Bintsamou, known as Pastor Ntumi, who disbanded the group in return for a junior government position. He recent came out in favor of presidential candidate Guy-Brice Parfait Kolelas, who came second to President Denis Sassou Nguesso in last month’s election. According to Moungalla, “the overwhelming evidence held by relevant services clearly points to the active implication of Mr Bintsamou in the events of Monday.” On Monday, thousands of people fled the heavy fighting in southern Brazzaville districts loyal to the opposition. Residents were woken by automatic gunfire and explosions before dawn on Monday. The fighting continued sporadically until sunset, forcing many to spend the night sheltering in churches and government buildings. On Tuesday, troops were deployed across key points of the capital city and manned roadblocks.

On Wednesday, 6 March the runner-up in Republic of Congo’s election called on his supporters to accept the official results of the violence-tainted poll, which returned longtime president Denis Sassou Nguesso to power. Guy-Brice Parfait Kolelas disclosed that he did not wish to stir up controversy by challenging Monday’s Constitutional Court ‘s findings that Sassou Nguesso, who has been in power for 32 years, won the 20 March election with over 60 percent of the vote. Speaking to reporters in the capital Brazzaville, Kolelas stated that “I accept the Constitutional Court’s verdict, however questionable,” adding “I nonetheless invite President Sassou Nguesso, the declared winner, to be humble in victory because this election has been marred by all sorts of irregularities.” Kolelas further called on the president to work to heal the divisions brought on by the vote.

Ugandan Police End House Arrest of Opposition Leader After Election Results are Confirmed By Top Court

On Friday 1 April, Ugandan police ended a six-week-long house arrest of an opposition leader that was imposed after he claimed that recent presidential elections were rigged.

Second-placed Kizza Besigye, who rejected the results of the 18 February election won by veteran President Yoweri Museveni, has been forcibly kept inside his home in the capital Kampala for 43 days. He has said that his detention was designed in order to block him from gathering evidence of fraud in what he called a “scandalous” election. On Friday, Ugandan police chief Kale Kayihura stated that he has “…given directive that the deployment of police outside Besigye’s home be withdrawn forthwith.”

While the police chief provided no explanation why the house arrest was being lifted, it comes just a day after the country’s Supreme Court dismissed a legal challenge to the election result and upheld Museveni’s fifth-term victory. With Besigye unable to submit a legal challenge, third-placed Amama Mbabazi, a former prime minister who won just over one percent of the vote, filed the suit that was rejected in court on 31 March.

Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, was declared the winner with 61 percent of the vote. He has rejected claims that his victory was won through cheating and fraud. A long-standing opponent of the president, Besigye has been frequently jailed, accused of both treason and rape, teargased and hospitalized over the years, however this was the longest period he had ever been under house arrest. On Friday, Kayihura warned that “we expect Besigye to respect the law, to stop causing trouble for people going about their private businesses,” adding, “ He must respect the law. If he veers off, the police is there to protect people and their property.”