MS Risk Blog

Over a Dozen Killed in Post Election Violence in Republic of Congo

The government reported on Tuesday, 5 March that at least seventeen people died Monday in fighting in the capital Brazzaville, adding that they had been killed in a “terror attack” and the subsequent “rapid intervention” by security forces.”

Government spokesman Thierry Moungalla posted on Twitter Tuesday that “three members of the security forces, two civilians and 12 attackers” were killed in the unrest that occurred in the city’s south, adding that “six members of the security forces were inured, as well as some civilians. The number is being evaluated.” Moungalla also stated that six police stations, a town hall and two customs checkpoints were torched along with many vehicles, adding that attackers had made off with “weapons of war and ammunition.” He also stated that “in the course of the police operation during the assault, security forces arrested around fifty former milita members, the perpetrators of the attack,” adding that officials have identified them as former members of the disbanded Ninja Nsiloulou milita. The Ninjas is a rebel group that fought two civil wars in the 1990’s. It is headed by Protestant preacher Frederic Bintsamou, known as Pastor Ntumi, who disbanded the group in return for a junior government position. He recent came out in favor of presidential candidate Guy-Brice Parfait Kolelas, who came second to President Denis Sassou Nguesso in last month’s election. According to Moungalla, “the overwhelming evidence held by relevant services clearly points to the active implication of Mr Bintsamou in the events of Monday.” On Monday, thousands of people fled the heavy fighting in southern Brazzaville districts loyal to the opposition. Residents were woken by automatic gunfire and explosions before dawn on Monday. The fighting continued sporadically until sunset, forcing many to spend the night sheltering in churches and government buildings. On Tuesday, troops were deployed across key points of the capital city and manned roadblocks.

On Wednesday, 6 March the runner-up in Republic of Congo’s election called on his supporters to accept the official results of the violence-tainted poll, which returned longtime president Denis Sassou Nguesso to power. Guy-Brice Parfait Kolelas disclosed that he did not wish to stir up controversy by challenging Monday’s Constitutional Court ‘s findings that Sassou Nguesso, who has been in power for 32 years, won the 20 March election with over 60 percent of the vote. Speaking to reporters in the capital Brazzaville, Kolelas stated that “I accept the Constitutional Court’s verdict, however questionable,” adding “I nonetheless invite President Sassou Nguesso, the declared winner, to be humble in victory because this election has been marred by all sorts of irregularities.” Kolelas further called on the president to work to heal the divisions brought on by the vote.

Ugandan Police End House Arrest of Opposition Leader After Election Results are Confirmed By Top Court

On Friday 1 April, Ugandan police ended a six-week-long house arrest of an opposition leader that was imposed after he claimed that recent presidential elections were rigged.

Second-placed Kizza Besigye, who rejected the results of the 18 February election won by veteran President Yoweri Museveni, has been forcibly kept inside his home in the capital Kampala for 43 days. He has said that his detention was designed in order to block him from gathering evidence of fraud in what he called a “scandalous” election. On Friday, Ugandan police chief Kale Kayihura stated that he has “…given directive that the deployment of police outside Besigye’s home be withdrawn forthwith.”

While the police chief provided no explanation why the house arrest was being lifted, it comes just a day after the country’s Supreme Court dismissed a legal challenge to the election result and upheld Museveni’s fifth-term victory. With Besigye unable to submit a legal challenge, third-placed Amama Mbabazi, a former prime minister who won just over one percent of the vote, filed the suit that was rejected in court on 31 March.

Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, was declared the winner with 61 percent of the vote. He has rejected claims that his victory was won through cheating and fraud. A long-standing opponent of the president, Besigye has been frequently jailed, accused of both treason and rape, teargased and hospitalized over the years, however this was the longest period he had ever been under house arrest. On Friday, Kayihura warned that “we expect Besigye to respect the law, to stop causing trouble for people going about their private businesses,” adding, “ He must respect the law. If he veers off, the police is there to protect people and their property.”

Republic of Congo Issues Final Election Results as Clashes Erupt in Capital

On Monday, 4 April, the Republic of Congo’s Constitutional Court published final election results, showing that President Denis Sassou N’Guesso, who has been in power for more than thirty years, has won re-election.

Results given by the head of the court, Auguste Iloki, indicate that Sassou N’Guesso won 60 percent of the 20 March election, trailed by challenger Guy Brice Parfait Kolelas with 15 percent and Jean Marie Michel Mokoko with nearly 14 percent. The court further disclosed that about 69 percent of the more than 2 million eligible voters participated in the election. Iloki has ruled against motions by the opposition contesting the election.

The announcement of the final election results came as gunbattles erupted in the capital Brazzaville on Monday, effectively shattering a relative calm that had followed last month’s disputed vote. According to government spokesman Thierry Moungalla, former members of the “Ninja” militia that fought Sassou Nguesso in a 1997 civil war raided and set alight military, police and local government offices. The gunfire, which broke out at 3 AM local time (0200 GMT) in the opposition strongholds of Makelekele and Bacongo, lasted until 6 AM. It resumed around 8 AM and intensified late in the morning as military helicopters patrolled southern Brazzaville. The attacks have since been contained. According to witnesses, gunfire had died down by mid-afternoon as security forces blocked access to southern Brazzaville, where exchanges of heavy calibre fire between police and unidentified fighters broke out. Dozens of heavily-armed Republican Guard troops and police later headed towards the Kingouari neighbourhood of southern Brazzaville, where isolated gunfire persisted in the afternoon, while some residents took refuge in Catholic churches.

While the government has not indicated whether anyone was killed in the fighting, the clashes resulted in thousands of residents streaming north, with many carrying their possessions on their heads. Some residents of southern Brazzaville who had taken shelter in churches in the central and northern areas of the city on Monday have disclosed that they feared a resurgence of fighting after the government case suspicion on the losing candidates in the election.

Ugandan Police End House Arrest of Opposition Leader After Election Results are Confirmed By Top Court

On Friday 1 April, Ugandan police ended a six-week-long house arrest of an opposition leader that was imposed after he claimed that recent presidential elections were rigged.

Second-placed Kizza Besigye, who rejected the results of the 18 February election won by veteran President Yoweri Museveni, has been forcibly kept inside his home in the capital Kampala for 43 days. He has said that his detention was designed in order to block him from gathering evidence of fraud in what he called a “scandalous” election. On Friday, Ugandan police chief Kale Kayihura stated that he has “…given directive that the deployment of police outside Besigye’s home be withdrawn forthwith.”

While the police chief provided no explanation why the house arrest was being lifted, it comes just a day after the country’s Supreme Court dismissed a legal challenge to the election result and upheld Museveni’s fifth-term victory. With Besigye unable to submit a legal challenge, third-placed Amama Mbabazi, a former prime minister who won just over one percent of the vote, filed the suit that was rejected in court on 31 March.

Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, was declared the winner with 61 percent of the vote. He has rejected claims that his victory was won through cheating and fraud. A long-standing opponent of the president, Besigye has been frequently jailed, accused of both treason and rape, teargased and hospitalized over the years, however this was the longest period he had ever been under house arrest. On Friday, Kayihura warned that “we expect Besigye to respect the law, to stop causing trouble for people going about their private businesses,” adding, “ He must respect the law. If he veers off, the police is there to protect people and their property.”

Concerns with increased violence in Northern Ireland with centennial of the Easter Rising

During the month of March authorities in Northern Ireland has been on higher alert than normal, concerned that the 100^th anniversary of the Irish uprising against British rule would cause numerous attacks throughout the country. Security has been tightened and police presence beefed up in many places. Authorities are concerned that splinter groups from what was once the Irish Republican Army will target police, prison officers and soldiers. Concerns were particularly raised after a car bomb incident early in March led to the death of 52-year old prison officer Adrian Ismay. Soon after the car bomb attack the Police Service of Northern Ireland deemed the threat from dissidents to be severe, meaning that an attack is highly possible. The New Irish Republican Army claimed responsibility for the bombing incident, which was apparently targeting officer Ismay for his part in training officers working at the Maghaberry Prison where several republican revolutionaries are currently being held. In the weeks leading up to, and following, the attack of prison officer Ismay police patrols were increased across the country.

To understand the current situation perhaps it is helpful to consider the recent history. A 28-year long conflict known as “The Troubles,” in which nearly 3,600 people died, came to an end with the Good Friday accord in April of 1998, following a truce reached in 1997. The conflict was between pro-British Protestants and Catholics who favoured reclaiming Northern Ireland from British control and unifying it with the republic of Ireland. With the peace agreement the IRA split up, which led to the creation of fractions, some of them opposing the Good Friday agreement and considering it a betrayal of the revolutionary spirit. This historic conflict seems to be causing feeling of resentment still today. The New IRA is the latest iteration of the Provisional IRA (PIRA). With the Good Friday accord a disarming of the PIRA was planned. A significant portion of the PIRA disagreed with the disarmament, which has led to yet more splinter groups attempting to take the IRA mantle. One of the splinter groups is the Continuity IRA (CIRA) which broke off in 1986, and is responsible for a high-profile shooting at a boxing weigh-in in Dublin on 5 February of this year.

It is no wonder some have raised concerns about a potential increase in violence as it is still fresh in memory of many, that when the 50th anniversary of the Easter Rising took place in 1966, Northern Ireland saw an increase in violence which only three years later resulted in the start of “the Troubles”. According to one of the former PIRA prisoners a new all-Ireland network has been formed for republicans, which promotes a unification and regard the Good Friday accord as a sell-out. The continued presence of the republican revolutionary spirit was evident on Easter Eve, 26 March, when a parade in a Northern Ireland town was headed by masked men, dressed in paramilitary uniforms, reportedly linked to the CIRA. The CIRA is typically one of the fractions that opposes the political settlement in Northern Ireland, in which political party Sinn Féin shares power with unionists. As Easter weekend has come to an end we are left to wonder if the authorities of Northern Ireland can relax their tightened security and return to a threat alert closer to normality, or if the rest of the year 2016 will indeed be characterised by worry and concerns about more upcoming attacks targeting people of the authorities in protest or to mark the centennial of the rising.