MS Risk Blog

Ghana Raises Terror Alert

In the wake of the 13 March deadly terror attack in neighbouring Ivory Coast, Ghana’s government has put the nation on high alert. The terror alert is a first for the West African country.

On 16 March, Ghana’s national security chiefs disclosed that they have intelligence of a credible terrorist threat in the country. The announcement was made on Wednesday following a meeting with Ghana’s President John Mahama to review their readiness. In a statement, the government called on Ghanaians to pay attention and report anything unusual to security agencies.

The alert comes as the United Kingdom has also advised its citizens in Ghana to be cautious. The United States has also restricted US service members’ travel to five West African countries, citing recent militant attacks in the region. On 16 March, the Pentagon issued the move, which effectively limits unofficial travel by US military personnel to Senegal, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso and Ghana. US Lieutenant Colonel Michelle Baldanza, a Pentagon spokeswoman, has disclosed that the order will remain in effect until 30 June and does not restrict official travel to the countries involved, adding, “given the recent attacks in Western Africa, we felt it prudent to make this decision at this time in an effort to ensure the safety of our personnel.” According to Navy Lt. Cmdr. Anthony Falvo, a spokesman for US Africa Command, “its just vigilance given the recent events that have happened in the area of the world.” US Africa Command has between 1,000 and 1,2000 forces on the continent at any one time, mostly in training and support roles to help local security forces combat militants.

Since November 2015, al-Qaeda militants have attacked hotels in two other regional capitals, Bamako (Mali) and Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso), and a beach resort located outside Abidjan (Ivory Coast).

China’s Offensive Cyber Warfare

Hacking is has been a rising trend within the PRC since the Internet entered the country in 1994 and on November 8^th 2012 the Chinese president officially announced, “China will speed up full military IT applications”. China alone accounts for the largest national population of Internet users—some 300 million, nearly one-fifth of the global number. Ever since the 90’s, creation of a lot of hacking groups: The Green Corps, The Hong Kong Blonds and the most famous recent one: the Red Honker Union They created an important hacking culture in China. Some evidences link civilian hackers to the government and the States’ creation of a cyber army. Since 1998, according to Timothy Thomas of the U.S Foreign Military Studies Office, the Chinese army has even recruited civilians into its ‘net militia units’ (Militia Information Technology Battalions), the most famous being the unit 61398.

The State cyber army: unit 61398

As everything on the Internet, it is always difficult to prove the origin of a cyber attack. Nevertheless, the company Mandiant has investigated since 2004 the cyber capacity of China, especially through the unit 61398 considered as a part of the Communist Party of China under the Central Military Commission in the GSD 3^rd department (2^nd Bureau). Since 2006, a rising number of cyber attacks are believed to have come from this unit and most of them targeted the U.S.

The four most important sectors attacked are: Information Technology, Transportation, High-Tech Electronics and Financial Services. China seems to base its cyber warfare on a method often referred as “Acupuncture warfare”: based on attacking critical IT nodes or pressure points, this method capitalizes on optimizing effects on adversary vulnerabilities and follows the principle of acupuncture practiced for medicine—identifying points that serve as “a tunnel, or access route, to the deeper circulatory channels within”. One application of this theory would be finding the key choke points or supply chain vulnerabilities for an enemy military deployments and influencing them by attacking the supporting civilian infrastructure.

Intents and motivation of the cyber attacks

The first reason for China’s cyber offensive is to gain increased military knowledge through cyber espionage: China also has an interest in accelerating its military development since it is still behind the West, especially the U.S. who often has the lead for new military technology. Different cyber attacks can be quoted as examples, the most famous being the “Titain Rain” in 2007: a massive cyber attack against United States defence contractor computer networks (10 to 20 terabytes including Lockheed Martin and NASA) believed to come from China. Furthermore, numerous attackers originating in China have been accused of infiltrating government computers of numerous countries: the United States, Britain, France, Germany, South Korea, and Taiwan.

A second motivation is to make economic gains by stealing technological process. China’s general technological level is also behind that of the United States, which gives it an increased incentive for industrial espionage in order to achieve economic advantage. Numerous attacks believed to come from China supported this theory: the theft of data from U.S. network security company RSA Security in 2011. Moreover, in December 2007, the director-general of the British Security Service (MI5) informed 300 major UK companies that they were under constant attack from “Chinese state organisations”.

One of the last reasons for China to use cyber offensive is to deter other States by infiltrating their critical infrastructure. It puts the other States on notice that any technological edge it believes it enjoys will not be functional in a conflict with China. It also reminds China’s restive domestic audience that unfettered technological advancement alone does not bring security. Deterrence and possible military actions for this reason could be launching probes to identify vulnerabilities that could be exploited in armed conflict. Two main examples of this reason is Operation Aurora in 2009 where the U.S company Google’s source code has been stolen along with the attack of Denial of service on the White House website in 1999 after the U.S attacked the Chinese Embassy.

The characteristics of cyber warfare

• Anonymous: China has an interest in avoiding exposure to political and military pressure from the West and the United States. Chinese embassy representative Geng Shuang maintains that the allegations against China are groundless, stating: “The Chinese government prohibits online criminal offenses of all forms, including cyber attacks, and has done what it can to combat such activities in accordance with Chinese law.” The Chinese Defense Ministry in January 2013 stated, “It is unprofessional and groundless to accuse the Chinese military of launching cyber attacks without any conclusive evidence.” Here lies a paradox with one of China’s reason for cyber offensive: anonymity prevent from any possible deterrence: China has to find the equilibrium between anonymous to avoid exposure and famous to create deterrence.
• Cheap: cyber weapons are cheap to build and to use.
• Diverse: cyber weapons can target multiple types of system.
• Timeframe: cyber weapons can act quickly and against multiple targets at the same time.
• Flexible: unlike nukes, a virus or any type of cyber weapon can be used multiple times.

China’s offensive cyber: information warfare

Fitting in the Sun Tzu’s spirit of the need of information, China focus on cyber capabilities as part of its strategy of national asymmetric warfare. The Chinese military and their civilian oversees have hit upon a military strategy that aims all at once to close the gap between U.S. and Chinese technological-military prowess. Hence, China considers the cyber domain to be a battle arena.

Republic of Congo President Wins Re-election

On Thursday, the interior minister for the Republic of Congo announced that President Denis Sassou Nguesso has won a new five-year term in office, gaining 60.39 percent of the vote and effectively extending his long rule over the oil-producing country that first began in 1979.

Interior Minister Raymond Zephyrin Mboulou announced the result on state television, stating that opposition leader Guy-Brice Parfait Kolelas, who is popular in the south of the capital Brazzaville, won 15 percent in Sunday’s election, while retired general Jean-Marie Mokoko won 14 percent. Opposition candidates have alleged election fraud, and on Wednesday, they disclosed that their won results shows that President Sassou Nguesso was headed for defeat. The government has imposed a blackout on Internet and mobile phone communications since Sunday and it also banned the use of motor vehicles nationwide during the vote itself.

President Sassou Nguesso came to power in 1979 and governed until 1992, when he lost an election. He regained power in 1997 after a civil war and went on to win elections in 2002 and 2009, during which there were allegations of fraud. This time around he campaigned on a promise to develop the country’s infrastructure and commit a quarter of the state budget to education and to tackle high youth unemployment in the nation, which has a population of 4.5 million. The 72-year-old president pushed through changes to the country’s constitution in a referendum that was held in October and which aimed to alter the term and age limits that would have effectively barred him from standing for another five-year term.

WHO Declares Sierra Leone Free of Ebola Transmissions but Warns of Future Flare-ups in the Region

On Thursday, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that a recent flare-up of Ebola in Sierra Leone is over after no new transmission of the disease were detected in the West African country. The UN health agency however warned that the virus could still resurface at any time.

The WHO has reported that Sierra Leone has had no new cases of the virus for 42 days, twice the length of the virus’s incubation period – the time that elapses between transmission of the disease and the appearance of symptoms. The WHO further indicated that it marked a milestone in the fight against Ebola, which has cost the lives of more than 11,300 people since 2013 in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone in what was the world’s worst recorded outbreak of the disease. It warned however that more flare-ups are possible because the virus can persist in the eyes, central nervous system and bodily fluids of some survivors. In a statement, the WHO noted that “strong surveillance and emergency response capacity need to be maintained along with rigorous hygiene practices at home and in health facilities and active community participation.”

Sierra Leone was first declared free of Ebola transmissions in November 2015 before tests revealed one woman had died of the disease in January 2016, the same week that the WHO had declared the West African region free of new transmissions of the virus. The case of Mariatu Jalloh, a female student, displayed how easily Ebola can return if precautions are not taken and patients do not seek quick medical attention. Jalloh had travelled across the country and come into contact with dozens of people after contracting the illness. Family members washed her corpse after she died, considered dangerous since the virus is contagious for days after death. Experts say that while residents and authorities remain on edge across the region, in many areas, procedures to combat Ebola remain lax.

At least three people from the same family have died in recent weeks from diarrhea and vomiting in a remote village in southeastern Guinea, raising further concern about the disease spreading again. According to Fode Tass Sylla, spokesman for the National Coordination of the fight against Ebola in Guinea, “there is in the same family a woman who died on 29 February and husband a week later. Their child died yesterday.” Since 23 March, 5 people have died in the town, and over 800 have been placed under quarantine.

IS Carries out Major Attack in Brussels Days after Main Fugitive in Paris Attacks is Arrested

At least 31 people have been killed and dozens injured in attacks that targeted Brussels international airport and a metro station in the city. Authorities have warned that the death toll is likely to go up in the coming days as many of the injured are in serious condition. The so-called Islamic State (IS) group issued a statement on the IS-linked Amaq agency claiming responsibility for the attack.

Twin blasts targeted Zaventem international airport at about 08:00 local time (07:00 GMT), killing at least 11 people. The Belgian prosecutor has indicated that “probably a suicide bomber” was involved. The state-owned Belga news agency has reported that shots were fired and shouts in Arabic were heard before the two explosions. Some witnesses indicated that after the first blast, people fled only to get caught in the second blast. Public broadcaster VRT has reported that an assault rifle was found next to a dead attacker, with private broadcaster VTM adding that an unexploded bomb belt had been found. The airport is located 11 kilometres (7 miles) northeast of Brussels and last year, it dealt with more than 23 million passengers.

An hour later, shortly after 08:00 GMT, another explosion occurred at Maelbeek metro station during rush hour. The explosion struck the middle carriage of a three-carriage train while it was moving away from the platform. At least 20 people were killed in that attack. The station is located close to a number of European Union (EU) institutions. The European Commission, which is the EU’s executive arm, has told employees to remain indoors or at home. All meetings at EU institutions have been cancelled.

In the wake of the attacks, Belgium raised its terrorism alert to its highest level. Three days of national mourning have been declared. While the airport and the entire public transport system in Brussels is closed, some train stations are due to reopen shortly. All fights have been diverted. Eurostar has cancelled all trains to and from Brussels while the Thalys France-Benelux rain operator has indicated that the entire network is closed.

Across Europe, countries have also quickly reacted to Tuesday’s attacks. In the United Kingdom, security was increased at Gatwick and Heathrow airports, while the Foreign Office has advised British nationals to avoid crowded areas in Belgium. UK Prime Minister David Cameron also chaired a meeting of the Cobra response committee on Tuesday.

In France, officials have stepped up security, while the cabinet held an emergency meeting. French President Francois Hollande held a brief conference, where he stated that “the terrorists have stuck Belgium but it is Europe that was targeted. And it is the whole world that is concerned with this.”

Interpol on Friday warned that accomplices may try to flee across frontiers now that Salah Abdeslam was in custody.

The bombings come just four days after Salah Abdeslam, the main fugitive in the 13 November 2015 attacks in Paris, was seized during a raid in Brussels.

The 26-year-old French national, born in Belgium, spent four months on the run. It is believed that he fled shortly after the November attacks, returning to the Molenbeek district of Brussels. Investigators believe that he helped with logistics, including renting rooms and driving suicide bombers to the Stade de France. He was arrested 500 m from his home in Molenbeek. His brother, Brahim, was one of the Paris attackers who blew himself up.

Friday’s raid came after Abdeslam’s fingerprints were found in a flat in another Brussels district, Forest, which was raided on Tuesday.

On 20 March, Belgian Foreign minister Didier Reynders suggested that Abdeslam was preparing attacks in Brussels before he was arrested. Paris prosecutor Francois Molins also told reporters on Saturday that Abdeslam had admitted that he wanted to blow himself up during the Paris attacks but then changed his mind. Abdeslam is being interrogated in Belgium following his arrest in Brussels on Friday. Mr Reynders citied information that he said had come to light since Abdeslam’s arrest. He disclosed that Abdeslam “…was ready to restart something in Brussels…And its maybe the reality because we have found a lot of weapons, heavy weapons, in the first investigations and we have found a new network around him in Brussels.” Mr Reynders further disclosed that the number of suspects had risen markedly since the November attacks in Paris, adding “we are sure for the moment we have found more than 30 people involved in the terrorist attacks in Paris, but we are sure there are others.” Belgian authorities have charged Abdeslam with terrorism offenses. He is being held at a high-security jail in the Belgian city of Bruges. Abdeslam is now fighting extradition to France, which could take up to three months.

Another man arrested at the same time as Abdeslam on Friday, Monir Ahmed Alaaj, has also been charged with participation in terrorist murder and the activities of a terrorist group. Prosecutors have disclosed that Alaaj, who was injured during Friday’s arrests, had travelled with Abdeslam to Germany last October, where his fingerprints were taken during an identity check

While European security experts have been braced for another attack for months, such attacks continue to have a huge shock when it actually happens. If Tuesday’s attack in Brussels is what many have termed “revenge” for Friday’s arrest of Salah Abdeslam, it will be a source of great concern of authorities in the country as a functioning terrorist network was able to respond so quickly with such devastating effect. Over the weekend, Abdeslam’s lawyer disclosed that he was cooperating with Belgian authorities. It is therefore possible that a cell linked to Abdeslam brought forward the timing of a future attack in the believe that he might blow their cover. Either way, this attack shows how advanced the planning was in terms of logistics, explosives, weapons and people willing to carry out such attacks on civilian targets. Furthermore, while the priority of Belgian officials will now be to ensure that anyone else who poses an imminent threat to the public is apprehended as soon as possible, it is evident that Brussels is seen as a soft target in a county that continues to have huge gaps in intelligence.