MS Risk Blog

Ugandan Police End House Arrest of Opposition Leader After Election Results are Confirmed By Top Court

On Friday 1 April, Ugandan police ended a six-week-long house arrest of an opposition leader that was imposed after he claimed that recent presidential elections were rigged.

Second-placed Kizza Besigye, who rejected the results of the 18 February election won by veteran President Yoweri Museveni, has been forcibly kept inside his home in the capital Kampala for 43 days. He has said that his detention was designed in order to block him from gathering evidence of fraud in what he called a “scandalous” election. On Friday, Ugandan police chief Kale Kayihura stated that he has “…given directive that the deployment of police outside Besigye’s home be withdrawn forthwith.”

While the police chief provided no explanation why the house arrest was being lifted, it comes just a day after the country’s Supreme Court dismissed a legal challenge to the election result and upheld Museveni’s fifth-term victory. With Besigye unable to submit a legal challenge, third-placed Amama Mbabazi, a former prime minister who won just over one percent of the vote, filed the suit that was rejected in court on 31 March.

Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, was declared the winner with 61 percent of the vote. He has rejected claims that his victory was won through cheating and fraud. A long-standing opponent of the president, Besigye has been frequently jailed, accused of both treason and rape, teargased and hospitalized over the years, however this was the longest period he had ever been under house arrest. On Friday, Kayihura warned that “we expect Besigye to respect the law, to stop causing trouble for people going about their private businesses,” adding, “ He must respect the law. If he veers off, the police is there to protect people and their property.”

Republic of Congo Issues Final Election Results as Clashes Erupt in Capital

On Monday, 4 April, the Republic of Congo’s Constitutional Court published final election results, showing that President Denis Sassou N’Guesso, who has been in power for more than thirty years, has won re-election.

Results given by the head of the court, Auguste Iloki, indicate that Sassou N’Guesso won 60 percent of the 20 March election, trailed by challenger Guy Brice Parfait Kolelas with 15 percent and Jean Marie Michel Mokoko with nearly 14 percent. The court further disclosed that about 69 percent of the more than 2 million eligible voters participated in the election. Iloki has ruled against motions by the opposition contesting the election.

The announcement of the final election results came as gunbattles erupted in the capital Brazzaville on Monday, effectively shattering a relative calm that had followed last month’s disputed vote. According to government spokesman Thierry Moungalla, former members of the “Ninja” militia that fought Sassou Nguesso in a 1997 civil war raided and set alight military, police and local government offices. The gunfire, which broke out at 3 AM local time (0200 GMT) in the opposition strongholds of Makelekele and Bacongo, lasted until 6 AM. It resumed around 8 AM and intensified late in the morning as military helicopters patrolled southern Brazzaville. The attacks have since been contained. According to witnesses, gunfire had died down by mid-afternoon as security forces blocked access to southern Brazzaville, where exchanges of heavy calibre fire between police and unidentified fighters broke out. Dozens of heavily-armed Republican Guard troops and police later headed towards the Kingouari neighbourhood of southern Brazzaville, where isolated gunfire persisted in the afternoon, while some residents took refuge in Catholic churches.

While the government has not indicated whether anyone was killed in the fighting, the clashes resulted in thousands of residents streaming north, with many carrying their possessions on their heads. Some residents of southern Brazzaville who had taken shelter in churches in the central and northern areas of the city on Monday have disclosed that they feared a resurgence of fighting after the government case suspicion on the losing candidates in the election.

Ugandan Police End House Arrest of Opposition Leader After Election Results are Confirmed By Top Court

On Friday 1 April, Ugandan police ended a six-week-long house arrest of an opposition leader that was imposed after he claimed that recent presidential elections were rigged.

Second-placed Kizza Besigye, who rejected the results of the 18 February election won by veteran President Yoweri Museveni, has been forcibly kept inside his home in the capital Kampala for 43 days. He has said that his detention was designed in order to block him from gathering evidence of fraud in what he called a “scandalous” election. On Friday, Ugandan police chief Kale Kayihura stated that he has “…given directive that the deployment of police outside Besigye’s home be withdrawn forthwith.”

While the police chief provided no explanation why the house arrest was being lifted, it comes just a day after the country’s Supreme Court dismissed a legal challenge to the election result and upheld Museveni’s fifth-term victory. With Besigye unable to submit a legal challenge, third-placed Amama Mbabazi, a former prime minister who won just over one percent of the vote, filed the suit that was rejected in court on 31 March.

Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, was declared the winner with 61 percent of the vote. He has rejected claims that his victory was won through cheating and fraud. A long-standing opponent of the president, Besigye has been frequently jailed, accused of both treason and rape, teargased and hospitalized over the years, however this was the longest period he had ever been under house arrest. On Friday, Kayihura warned that “we expect Besigye to respect the law, to stop causing trouble for people going about their private businesses,” adding, “ He must respect the law. If he veers off, the police is there to protect people and their property.”

Concerns with increased violence in Northern Ireland with centennial of the Easter Rising

During the month of March authorities in Northern Ireland has been on higher alert than normal, concerned that the 100^th anniversary of the Irish uprising against British rule would cause numerous attacks throughout the country. Security has been tightened and police presence beefed up in many places. Authorities are concerned that splinter groups from what was once the Irish Republican Army will target police, prison officers and soldiers. Concerns were particularly raised after a car bomb incident early in March led to the death of 52-year old prison officer Adrian Ismay. Soon after the car bomb attack the Police Service of Northern Ireland deemed the threat from dissidents to be severe, meaning that an attack is highly possible. The New Irish Republican Army claimed responsibility for the bombing incident, which was apparently targeting officer Ismay for his part in training officers working at the Maghaberry Prison where several republican revolutionaries are currently being held. In the weeks leading up to, and following, the attack of prison officer Ismay police patrols were increased across the country.

To understand the current situation perhaps it is helpful to consider the recent history. A 28-year long conflict known as “The Troubles,” in which nearly 3,600 people died, came to an end with the Good Friday accord in April of 1998, following a truce reached in 1997. The conflict was between pro-British Protestants and Catholics who favoured reclaiming Northern Ireland from British control and unifying it with the republic of Ireland. With the peace agreement the IRA split up, which led to the creation of fractions, some of them opposing the Good Friday agreement and considering it a betrayal of the revolutionary spirit. This historic conflict seems to be causing feeling of resentment still today. The New IRA is the latest iteration of the Provisional IRA (PIRA). With the Good Friday accord a disarming of the PIRA was planned. A significant portion of the PIRA disagreed with the disarmament, which has led to yet more splinter groups attempting to take the IRA mantle. One of the splinter groups is the Continuity IRA (CIRA) which broke off in 1986, and is responsible for a high-profile shooting at a boxing weigh-in in Dublin on 5 February of this year.

It is no wonder some have raised concerns about a potential increase in violence as it is still fresh in memory of many, that when the 50th anniversary of the Easter Rising took place in 1966, Northern Ireland saw an increase in violence which only three years later resulted in the start of “the Troubles”. According to one of the former PIRA prisoners a new all-Ireland network has been formed for republicans, which promotes a unification and regard the Good Friday accord as a sell-out. The continued presence of the republican revolutionary spirit was evident on Easter Eve, 26 March, when a parade in a Northern Ireland town was headed by masked men, dressed in paramilitary uniforms, reportedly linked to the CIRA. The CIRA is typically one of the fractions that opposes the political settlement in Northern Ireland, in which political party Sinn Féin shares power with unionists. As Easter weekend has come to an end we are left to wonder if the authorities of Northern Ireland can relax their tightened security and return to a threat alert closer to normality, or if the rest of the year 2016 will indeed be characterised by worry and concerns about more upcoming attacks targeting people of the authorities in protest or to mark the centennial of the rising.

WHO Declares Ebola Outbreak No Longer International Emergency

On 29 March, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the Ebola outbreak in West Africa no longer constitutes an international emergency as officials voiced confidence that remaining isolated cases in the affected countries can be contained.

Speaking to journalists, WHO chief Margaret Chan stated that “the Ebola outbreak in West Africa no longer constitutes a public health emergency of international concern,” officially ending the emergency, which was first declared in August 2014. While the outbreak of Ebola in West Africa has ended, officials have warned that flare-ups are likely to continue, with Chan stressing on Tuesday that all three previously affected countries – Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone – remain vulnerable to these flare-ups, including an ongoing cluster of cases reported in Guinea, which has left five people dead. Last week, health officials in Conakry reported that 961 people who may have come into contact with the victims in the southern region of the country were being monitored. Chan also warned against complacency towards the virus, which remains in “the ecosystem” in West Africa, adding that vigilance is crucial, including reacting quickly to new cases. She noted that “particularly important will be to ensure that communities can rapidly and fully engage in any future response, cases are quickly isolated and managed.”

The deadliest-ever outbreak of the tropical disease emerged in December 2013, and since then it has killed more than 11,300 people mostly in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. At its peak in 2014, the Ebola outbreak sparked anxiety about a possible global pandemic and led some governments to threaten or unilaterally enforce travel bans to and from the worst-affected countries. The WHO consistently pushed back against such calls, with Chan again on Tuesday reiterating that “there should be no restrictions on travel and trade with Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and that any such measures should be lifted immediately.” In the wake of the recent cluster of cases reported in southern Guinea, Liberia has closed its border with the country until further notice.

During the outbreak, the United Nation’s public health agency faced criticism over its initial response to the spread of Ebola, including accusations that it took far too long in order to publicise the threat level. In May 2015, the growing criticism forced the WHO to launch a sweeping shake-up of its emergency response systems. These efforts were seen this year, when the WHO was quick to sound the alarm in response to the rapid spread of the Zika virus.