MS Risk Blog

Olympics 2016: Flame Arrives in Brazil Ahead of Rio Games

The Olympic flame has arrived in Brazil for the start of a torch relay that will culminate with the opening of the Olympic Games in Rio in August.

The flame was flown inside a small lantern on a special flight from the Swiss city of Geneva to Brasilia. President Dilma Rousseff lit the Olympic torch, which will be carried around Brazil by 12,000 runners. The act could be one of President Rousseff’s last public acts ahead of a possible impeachment trial. Next week, the Senate is expected to vote on whether proceedings against her should go ahead. If a simple majority votes in favour, then Ms Rousseff will be suspended from office for up to 180 days and Vice President Michel Temer will take over. Ms Rousseff has been accused of manipulating government accounts ahead of her re-election in 2014. She has denied the charges and has stated that the impeachment proceedings are a “coup d’état” designed to remove her Workers’ Party from office.

Aside from the ongoing political crisis, Brazil’s economy has also slumped, with sources reporting that generating public support for the Olympic Games will be one of the main challenges during the torch’s 95 day journey around the country. The torch will pass through more than 300 towns and cities from the Amazon to Brazil’s southern border.   It will arrive at the Maracana Stadium in Rio on 5 August. Amongst the first torchbearers will be a Syrian refugee who now lives in Brazil.

Five Years On: Al-Qaeda Down But Far From Out After Bin Laden’s Death

The first of May 2016 marks five years of the death of al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, however the network that he founded is far from dead despite suffering a series of setbacks.

While al-Qaeda has been replaced as the preeminent global jihadist power by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, which has held on to territory in Syria and Iraq and has a foothold in Libya, experts maintain that al-Qaeda nonetheless remains a potent force and dangerous threat. Attacks, such as the January 2015 attack on the Charlie Hebdo office in Paris, France, and a string of shootings in West Africa over the last several months have shown that al-Qaeda continues to maintain the capabilities to carry out large-scale attacks. Furthermore, in Syria and Yemen, al-Qaeda militants have taken advantage of the continued chaos to take control of significant territory, in some instances presenting themselves as an alternative to the brutality of IS rule.

When United States Special Forces killed bin Laden in Pakistan on 2 May 2011, the militant group that he had founded in the late 1980s had been baldy damaged as many of its militants and leaders had either been killed or captured during the US’ “War on Terror.” Dissention grew within the jihadist ranks as al-Qaeda’s new chief, Ayman al-Zawahiri, struggled to replace bin Laden. One of the militant group’s branches, originally al-Qaeda in Iraq, would later break away to form the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). After successfully capturing parts of Syria and Iraq in 2014, the group declared an Islamic “caliphate” in areas under its control, and would later call itself the Islamic State. Since then, IS has eclipsed its former partner, and many other global militant groups. It has drawn thousands of jihadists, both local and foreigners, to its cause and has claimed responsibility for attacks in Brussels, Paris, Tunisia, Turkey, Lebanon, Yemen, Saudi Arabi and on a Russian airliner over Egypt – All of which have left hundreds dead.   It continues to threaten European states with attacks such as those that were carried out in Paris and in Brussels. IS’ self-declared “emir” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has also won pledges of allegiance from extremist groups across the Middle East and in Africa. Powerful IS affiliates operating in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and in Libya have carried out a string of deadly attacks, with growing international concerns that the jihadist group is spreading from the Middle East into Africa and beyond. Experts have noted that IS has been especially effective at using new technology to surpass al-Qaeda, which has been less tech-savvy. According to Jean-Pierre Filiu, a Paris-based expert on Islam and jihadist groups, “al-Qaeda propaganda has become invisible on social networks thanks to the media war machine that Daesh (IS) has managed to successfully create,” adding, “al-Qaeda has lost everywhere to Daesh, except in the Sahel” desert region of northern Africa.

Other experts however, such as William McCants of the Brookings Institution in Washington, note that while al-Qaeda has lost some ground to IS, the organization has recovered, noting that “al-Qaeda has a strong showing in Syria and in Yemen.” In Syria, the group’s local affiliate, Al-Nusra Front, is one of the strongest forces that is fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The group also holds large parts of the northern province of Idlib. Meanwhile in Yemen, the local branch, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), has seized significant territory in the south and southeastern regions of the country as the Yemen government struggles against Iran-backed Shi’ite insurgents who have taken control of the capital city Sanaa and other areas of the country. AQAP did however suffer a significant setback in late April 2016 when Yemeni troops recaptured the key port city of Mukalla, which it had occupied for more than a year. McCants notes that despite this loss, AQAP remains the key jihadist force in Yemen as it has thousands of members compared with only several hundred who are affiliated with IS. AQAP, which is considered by Washington to be al-Qaeda’ most well-established and dangerous branch, has also claimed responsibility for one of the group’s most important attacks abroad in recent years. In January 2015, gunmen stormed the Paris offices of satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo. That assault, which was claimed by AQAP, killed 12 people.

Since November 2015, Al-Qaeda’s branch in the Sahel region, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), has carried out a string of deadly assaults on hotels and restaurants in Mali, Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast, which have left dozens dead, including many foreigners. In March, New York-based intelligence consultancy The Soufan Group disclosed that the attacks in West Africa “have reasserted the regional presence of AQIM and shown its expanding reach…AQIM has used the attacks to challenge the influence of the Islamic State, to demonstrate and build its local support and to show that it is united after earlier damaging divisions.”

The International Crisis Group notes that while IS has reshaped the jihadist landscape, al-Qaeda “has evolved,” noting that its branches in North Africa, Somalia, Syria and Yemen “remain potent, some stronger than ever.” The United States also continues to see al-Qaeda as a major threat, as has been exemplified in Yemen, where the US is pursuing a vigorous drone war against the group. The strikes have killed many senior operatives, including al-Qaeda’s second-in-command Nasir al-Quhayshi in June 2015. In March, a US strike on an AQAP training camp in Yemen killed at least 71 recruits. In Somalia, the US has also carried out a string of drone strikes against al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda affiliate that is trying to topple the western-backed government in the capital Mogadishu.

Suspect of Paris Terror Attacks Extradited to France

The lawyer for Paris attacks suspect Salah Abdeslam has confirmed that Abdeslam was been placed under formal investigation on terrorism and murder charges in France on 27 April after his extradition from Belgium, adding that the suspect has promised to talk to judges during his next hearing.

After an initial hour-long hearing, lawyer Frank Berton disclosed that “the investigation will determine to what degree he was involved in the acts…for which he had ben put under investigation.” He further stated that “he stayed silent today but said he would talk at a later stage,” adding that the next hearing has been set for 20 May. Berton noted that Abdeslam did not speak on Wednesday as he was tired after a “quite rough” extradition.

A Belgium-born Frenchman, Abdeslam is believed by investigators to be the sole survivor among a group of Islamist militants who killed 130 people in a spate of shootings and suicide bombings that were carried out in Paris on 13 November 2015. According to a statement released by the public prosecutor, Abdeslam was placed under investigation on charges of belonging to a terrorist organization, murder, kidnapping and holding weapons and explosives. The kidnap charges relate to the hours-long attack on the Bataclan concert hall, in which ninety people were killed. Investigators have disclosed that Abdeslam told them that he had arranged logistics for the multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Paris and had planned to blow himself up at the Stade de France sports stadium before backing out at the last minute. His confession to investigators suggests that he may have been the 10^th man referred to an Islamic State (IS) claim of responsibility for the multi-pronged attack on the stadium bars and the Bataclan concert hall. Police found an abandoned suicide vest in a rubbish bin in a Paris suburb following the attack, which stirred speculation that it may have belonged to Abdeslam, who escaped by car back to Belgium a few hours later.

Abdeslam is also suspected of having rented two cars that were used in order to transport the attackers to, and around, the French capital. Abdeslam’s elder brother, Brahim, with whom he used to run a bar in the Brussels district of Molenbeek, blew himself up in a suicide bomb attack on one of several Paris cafes targeted by a group of assailants armed with AK-47 rifles and suicide vests.

Abdeslam, 26, was Europe’s most wanted fugitive until he was captured in Brussels on 18 March after a four-month manhunt. Four days after his capture, other Islamist militants blew themselves up at Brussels international airport and on a metro train, killing 32 people. Abdeslam was taken by helicopter to Paris under armed guard and then driven to the capital city’s main law courts. French Justice Minister Jean-Jacques Urvoas has indicated that Abdeslam would be held in solitary confinement in a high-security prison in the Paris region, with his cell under CCTV surveillance.

Police in Belgium have arrested a number of Abdeslam’s associates, including Mohamed Abrini, who was wanted in connection with both the Paris and Brussels attacks.

Boko Haram Suicide Bombings Increased in 2015

According to a new report that was published on Wednesday, suspected Boko Haram suicide bombings caused a massive increase in the number of civilian deaths an injured in Nigeria in 2015.

Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) has reported that the number of fatalities and injures increased 190 percent last year from the previous year while the use of human suicide bombers rose 167 percent during the same period. AOAV reported in “Unacceptable Harm – Monitoring Explosive Violence in 2015” that of the 3,048 deaths recorded in 84 incidents in Nigeria in 2015, 2,920 were civilian casualties, or 96 percent of the total, noting that this made Nigeria the fourth worst-hit country in the world for deaths and injuries from conflict in 2015, behind Syria, Yemen and Iraq, with Afghanistan in fifth. The London-based non-profit group has stated that the increase was part of a global trend that had seen a rise in civilian casualties from “explosive weapons” for the fourth consecutive year. “Explosive weapons” include artillery shells, landmines, air strikes, improvised explosive devices, car bombs and suicide attacks. While Boko Haram only rarely claims responsibility for attacks, there is no other group in the country known to employ suicide bombers as a tactic. The report disclosed that assuming the Islamists were behind the attacks, “then it would make them the most prolific user of suicide bombings recorded by the AOAV in 2015.” Over the past year, Boko Haram has increasingly used suicide bombings in its insurgency, which began in 2009. In particular young women and girls have become a favoured method of inflicting maximum civilian causalities in northeastern Nigerian as well as in neighboring states in the Lake Chad region. AOAV has reported that 923 civilians were killed or injured in neighboring Cameroon and Chad in eighteen incidents that were reported in 2015. Boko Haram’s use of guerrilla-style tactics has long made it difficult to combat, even though President Muhammadu Buhari maintains that the group has been “technically” defeated. On 26 April, the military warned the public in a statement that “fleeing remnant terrorists have laid landmines on stretches of farmland.” The statement further disclosed that “these latest tactics of the terrorists is a grand design to cause fear and panic among the farmers as well as the local populace,” It noted that efforts are currently underway to “neutralize” the mines. It also advised people to be wary of “strange or suspicious objects” in the soil. The latest warning risks complicating further the return of many of the over 2.6 million people displaced by the violence, amidst concern about food shortages and post-conflict reconstruction costs.

According to the AOAV report, a total of 43,786 deaths and injuries were reported worldwide in 2015 as a result of the use of explosive weapons – up two percent from 2014. Civilian deaths accounted for 33,307 or 76 percent of deaths. Over the past five years, AOAV has recorded a total of 188,331 deaths and injuries across the world.

South Sudan’s Road to Peace

On Tuesday, 26 April, South Sudan’s rebel chief Riek Machar finally returned to the capital Juba, where he was sworn in as vice president of a unity government that was formed in order to end more than two years of civil war in the world’s newest country. His return, which was delayed by a week, is seen as a critical step towards cementing a fragile peace agreement that was brokered in August 2015.

The conflict in South Sudan, which won independence from Sudan in 2011, has pitted government troops loyal to President Salva Kiir against those of Machar, who was dismissed as vice president five months before the war began in December 2013. Tens of thousands have been killed and more than two million people forced from their homes.

Key Events in the War

2013

• 15 December – Heavy gunfire erupts in Juba, where tensions have been rising since July when Machar was dismissed as vice president.   Kiir blames Machar for an attempted coup, however Machar denies this and accuses the president of purging his rivals. Fighting spreads and rebels seize control of key towns.

2014

• 10 – 20 January – Uganda sends troops to back Kiir. Government troops recapture the northern city of Bentiu, capital of the oil-rich Unity State, and Bor, the capital of the eastern state of Jonglei.
• 15 – 17 April – According to the United Nations, more than 350 civilians are killed in Bentiu and Bor.
• 26 August – A UN helicopter is shot down, with three onboard killed. Each side blames the other.

2015

• 1 February – Kiir and Machar sign a new agreement to end the fighting, in what is the latest in a series of deals. However like the others, it is broken within days.
• 30 June – According to a UN rights report, South Sudan’s army raped then torched girls alive inside their homes. The report warns of “widespread human rights abuses.” Rebels have been accused of similar atrocities.
• 2 July – UN and US sanctions decided against six leaders from both sides.
• 17 August – Machar signs a peace agreement in Addis Ababa.
• 26 August – Kiir signs the peace accord, however he issues a list of “serious reservations.” Fighting continues.
• 3 October – Kiir nearly triples the number of regional states, undermining a key power-sharing clause of the peace agreement.
• 28 October – African Union investigators list atrocities committed, which include forced cannibalism and dismemberment.
• 5 November – UN experts warn that killings, rapes and abductions continue and that both sides are stockpiling weapons. Over two dozens armed groups are involved in fighting characterized by shifting alliances, opportunism and historic grievances.
• 27 November – The UN reports that some 16,000 children have been forced to fight, amidst a growing humanitarian crisis. More than 2.8 million people, almost a quarter of the population, needs emergency food aid.

2016

• 8 February – UN agencies warn that at least 40,000 people are being starved to death in the war zone, with rival forces blocking aid.
• 12 February – Kiir reappoints Machar as vice president.
• 11 April – A 1,370-strong rebel force completes their arrival in Juba ahead of Machar’s expected return.
• 12 April – South Sudan’s rebel deputy chief Alfred Ladu Gore arrives in the capital.
• 25 April – South Sudan’s top rebel military commander Simon Gatwech Dual returns to the capital.
• 26 April – Machar returns to Juba and is sworn in as vice president. UN Security General Ban Ki-moon calls for a new unity government to be set up immediately.