MS Risk Blog

Burundi – One Year On

It has been a year since Burundi plunged into chaos, however peace efforts remain deadlocked as the country remains divided and violence continues.

While the Burundian government is insisting that a year of unrest is at an end, with the capital Bujumbura relatively calm after a string of attacks, which included a failed coup in May 2015, tensions across the country remain high, with the international community warning of the risk of a new explosion of violence. Hundreds of people have been killed and a quarter of a million have fled the country in the wake of President Pierre Nkurunziza’s controversial decision last April to run for a third term in office, a vote that he won last July despite opposition boycotts. According to presidential press chief Willy Nyamitwe, “after the election fever and the violence that accompanied this process, the situation has returned to normal,” adding that “now the time is to work for development and the fight against poverty.” On the ground sources have reported that after weeks of battles between security forces and those opposed to the president’s third term, the capital is certainly calmer, adding that the once near-daily grenade attacks have also decreased. While the government crackdown over the past year involved the brutal repression of street protests, today, security forces stem opposition more discreetly after rights groups reported dead bodies being found on the city’s street on an almost daily basis. Last month, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein disclosed that reports have emerged that the use of torture has increased since the beginning of the year, adding that many people now “live in terror.” Diplomats have also disclosed that the crushing of the opposition has further undermined any respect for the law, with one official describing how “power is now in the hands of a small hard core,” mainly top generals close to President Nkurunziza since they fought together in the bush in the 1993 – 2006 civil war between the mostly Tutsi army and predominately Hutu rebel groups. The UN has reported that more than 400 people have been killed since the beginning of the crisis, adding that thousands more have been arrested and more than 250,000 have fled abroad. Rights groups have also indicated that torture and extrajudicial killings have become commonplace. Despite efforts to bring the opposition together under the main umbrella opposition group CNARED, whose leaders are in exile, it remains split and there seems to be minimal chance that there is a solution in the near future. The international community, while critical of what has happened in Burundi over the past year, has also been unable to find a real solution to the ongoing crisis, and the Burundian government seems to be exploiting these divisions. Despite repeated calls for “inclusive dialogue,” the government has remained defiant and has refused to sit down with the opposition in exile, which it accuses of being behind the violence. Without a concrete solution, the pressure across Burundi will continue to mount, with analysts already warning of a “potentially explosive situation” amidst the continued violence with fears that the conflict is increasingly based along ethnic lines.

An Unconventional Warfare – Cyber bombs

A conflict which has lasted over five years; dismounted the infrastructures of a country set the entire surviving population to seek asylum in neighbors’ states: the Syrian civil-war. The perfect stage to allow terrorists and extremists to enforce their plans and gain territories. Syria is not the only battlefield of this unbalanced amorphous and revised war on terror. North Iraq, Southeastern Turkey and on a broader spectrum the whole of Europe remains a potential target. A conflict where superpowers as the US and Russia played a major role leading to a ceasefire and alleged peace talks in Ginevra; a conflict where actors, structures and outcomes are yet to be fully unveiled.

This conflict is another historical landmark for many foreign policies; it reshaped the approach to terrorism and justice; showed the world a climate of desperation and fear; cruelty and loss of lives have filled the daily newspapers. Europe has worked on resolving the collateral effect of migrations and has faced attacks within its capitals; other players have tried to eradicate ISIS. No winners; only an apparent and fragile ceasefire.

From any “problem solving” point of view the first step of the analysis is to acknowledge the problem; identify the causes beginning by minimizing the effects. Who is ISIS?

Before describing the organization we should consider the so widely used term “Terrorism”. Historically the term refers to the unlawful use of violence towards civilian’s targets in a desperate attempt to enforce political goals. The rise of ISIS, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham began in 2004 as al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). It was initially an ally of Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda and both were radical anti-Western militant groups devoted to establishing an independent Islamic state in the region. AQI was weakened in Iraq in 2007 as a result of what is known as the Sunni Awakening, when a large alliance of Iraqi Sunni tribes, supported by the US, fought against the jihadist group. AQI saw an opportunity to regain its power and expand its ranks in the Syrian conflict that started in 2011, moving into Syria from Iraq. By 2013, al-Baghdadi had spread his group’s influence back into Iraq and changed the group’s name to ISIS. It disowned the group in early 2014 proving to be more brutal and more effective at controlling seized territories.

While ISIL has not been able to seize ground in the past several months, that hasn’t precluded them from conducting terrorist attacks, and it hasn’t precluded them from conducting operations that are more akin to guerrilla operations than the conventional operations that we saw when they were seizing territory. The organization understood the value of pushing out content, specifically videos of atrocities, into the world. Therefore, they could recruit very brutal young men to come and join their struggle. As the organization evolved, it made media very central to its ideology and strategy. ISIS had harnessed the power of the “information arena” to propagate its ideology, recruit, move money and coordinate activities. The question arise naturally: “What can be done?”

A top Pentagon official reported that the US is hitting ISIS with “cyber bombs” as part of its new arsenal of tactics being deployed against the terrorist group. The cyber effort is focused primarily on ISIS terrorists in Syria and that the goal is to overload their network so that they cannot function. An attack of this magnitude can interrupt the group’s ability to command and control forces. Similar principle was applied over the power and water disruptions in the middle of a two-week truce between government forces and certain militant groups. Disruption of critical infrastructure was used in order to gain an advantage over the group. Moreover the Islamic State is clearly frightened by the outflow of refugees. A lot of media have been created excoriating those who flee from these territories. By taking advantage of those refugees a powerful tool could be created in order to tell their stories to the world.

The humanitarian issues, the fallout, the civil war, the core issues have not been addressed yet. So far the military intervention and the coalition of multiple air strikes, carried out by Russia and US, have diminished the capabilities of the group; however there is so much more to do and the future remains uncertain. It is highly likely that ISIS will not cease to exist in the near-medium term; their strategy, tactics and objectives are likely to remain unaffected. The struggle in the region and the level of threat to Europe are still primary concerns and subjects of ongoing discussions.

Boko Haram Rejects Suggestions of Surrendering in Latest Video

Boko Haram released a new video on Friday, 1 April denying any suggestions that it would surrender. The latest video comes just over a week after the group’s leader, Abubakar Shekau, appeared in a rare message looking dejected and frail.

Shekau, who was not seen on camera for more than a year, released an unverified video late last month, stating that his time in charge of the Nigerian jihadist group may be coming to an end. If the video indeed depicts Shekau, he appears thin and listless, delivering his message without his trademark fiery rhetoric. While last month’s video prompted speculation from the Nigerian army that the Islamist group was on the verge of collapse in the face of a sustained military counter-insurgency, in Friday’s newly released video, Boko Haram maintained that it was a potent fighting force, with fighters posing with AK-47s in front of Toyota Hilux pick-up trucks and a lorry mounted with a military cannon. In the video, which was posted on YouTube, an unidentified masked man wearing camouflage said in a prepared script in Hausa that “you should know that there is no truce, there is no negotiations, there is no surrender…This war between us will not stop.” The masked man in the video also stated the Shekau was still the head of the “West African wing,” likening Boko Haram to the Islamist insurgencies in Iraq, Libya and Syria. The video, which was markedly better quality than Shekau’s and which included Arabic subtitles, featured nine masked Boko Haram fighters standing on sandy ground in an undisclosed desert location. It remains unclear if the masked people in the video include Boko Haram’s leader.

Mossack Fonseca’s Panama Offices Raided by Police

Police in Panama have raided the offices of the firm at the centre of the Panama Papers revelations. Organized crime police surrounded Mossack Fonseca’s headquarters in Panama City on Tuesday while prosecutors entered the offices to search for documents. According to the attorney general’s office the aim of the operation had been to obtain documentation linked to the information published in news articles that establish the use of the firm in illicit activities.

The unprecedented leak of 11.5 million files has caused disorder around the world. There are links to 12 current or former heads of state and government in the data. More than 60 relatives and associates of heads of state and other politicians are also implicated.

The files have revealed a suspected billion-dollar money laundering ring involving close associates of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Also mentioned in the documents leaked are the brother-in-law of China’s President Xi Jinping, Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko, Argentina President Mauricio Macri, the father of UK Prime Minister David Cameron and three of the children of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

Officials in France, Germany, Austria and South Korea have begun investigations into possible malfeasance, from money laundering to tax evasion. France’s finance minister, Michel Sapin, told Parliament the government was putting Panama back on a blacklist of havens for tax evaders.

On 4 April, the president of the Chilean branch of Transparency International resigned after documents from the Panamanian law firm showed he was linked to at least five offshore companies. While he is not accused of illegal activity, the leaks called into question his post at Transparency International, an organization that seeks to monitor and root out corporate and political corruption worldwide.

On 5 April, Iceland’s Prime Minister Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson stepped down after leaked documents revealed he purchased an offshore company called Wintris in 2007 with his wife but failed to declare this as an interest when he entered parliament in 2009. He sold his 50% of Wintris to his wife for 1 dollar eight months later. A document signed by his wife in 2015 shows the company was used to invest millions of dollars which they had inherited. Gunnlaugsson is accused of concealing millions of dollars worth of family assets. Gunnlaugsson said no rules were broken and denied that he or his wife had benefited financially from his conduct.

Following the leak of information from Mossack Fonseca’s, Panama announced it would form an independent commission to review the country’s financial practises. President Juan Carlos Varela said the commission would evaluate the current practises and propose the adoption of measures to strengthen the transparency of the financial and legal systems.

Liberia Records New Ebola Death and Second Case

Health officials reported on Friday, 1 April that a woman has died of Ebola in Liberia, months after the West African country was declared free of the deadly disease. The announcement also comes weeks after neighbouring Guinea also recorded a new flare-up. Just days later, on 3 April, officials confirmed that the woman’s five-year-old son has tested positive for Ebola.

According to a senior health ministry official, “a young lady in her early thirties died of Ebola yesterday at the Redemption Hospital,” adding that the government was preparing to release a statement on the new case. A hospital worker also confirmed that the woman had tested positive for the disease and died on Thursday, 31 March. Authorities are now checking everyone the woman was in contact with and ten health care workers from the hospital where the woman died are currently under observation. A source has disclosed that there are strong indications that the woman came from Guinea where they border was closed, adding that the woman had travelled with three of her children.

The new cases are a setback for Liberia, which had been declared free from transmission for a third time on 14 January. The region also continues to see a number of small flare-ups even after countries have received the all-clear. Liberia was first declared free of the disease in May 2015, however new cases emerged twice, effectively forcing officials to rese the clock in a nation where more than 4,800 people have died from the deadly virus. Last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that Ebola was no longer an international health emergency, warning however that flare-ups, at decreasing frequency, were expected. Last month Guinea documented a series of new infections, highlighting the difficulty in stamping out the lingering epidemic. There are currently no known cases of Ebola in Sierra Leone, however in early April, the authorities announced that they have increased security measures along with screenings and surveillance points at all border crossings with Guinea.

More than 11,300 people died over the past two years in the world’s worst Ebola epidemic on record, with nearly all of them dying in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.