MS Risk Blog

Boko Haram Suicide Bombings Increased in 2015

According to a new report that was published on Wednesday, suspected Boko Haram suicide bombings caused a massive increase in the number of civilian deaths an injured in Nigeria in 2015.

Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) has reported that the number of fatalities and injures increased 190 percent last year from the previous year while the use of human suicide bombers rose 167 percent during the same period. AOAV reported in “Unacceptable Harm – Monitoring Explosive Violence in 2015” that of the 3,048 deaths recorded in 84 incidents in Nigeria in 2015, 2,920 were civilian casualties, or 96 percent of the total, noting that this made Nigeria the fourth worst-hit country in the world for deaths and injuries from conflict in 2015, behind Syria, Yemen and Iraq, with Afghanistan in fifth. The London-based non-profit group has stated that the increase was part of a global trend that had seen a rise in civilian casualties from “explosive weapons” for the fourth consecutive year. “Explosive weapons” include artillery shells, landmines, air strikes, improvised explosive devices, car bombs and suicide attacks. While Boko Haram only rarely claims responsibility for attacks, there is no other group in the country known to employ suicide bombers as a tactic. The report disclosed that assuming the Islamists were behind the attacks, “then it would make them the most prolific user of suicide bombings recorded by the AOAV in 2015.” Over the past year, Boko Haram has increasingly used suicide bombings in its insurgency, which began in 2009. In particular young women and girls have become a favoured method of inflicting maximum civilian causalities in northeastern Nigerian as well as in neighboring states in the Lake Chad region. AOAV has reported that 923 civilians were killed or injured in neighboring Cameroon and Chad in eighteen incidents that were reported in 2015. Boko Haram’s use of guerrilla-style tactics has long made it difficult to combat, even though President Muhammadu Buhari maintains that the group has been “technically” defeated. On 26 April, the military warned the public in a statement that “fleeing remnant terrorists have laid landmines on stretches of farmland.” The statement further disclosed that “these latest tactics of the terrorists is a grand design to cause fear and panic among the farmers as well as the local populace,” It noted that efforts are currently underway to “neutralize” the mines. It also advised people to be wary of “strange or suspicious objects” in the soil. The latest warning risks complicating further the return of many of the over 2.6 million people displaced by the violence, amidst concern about food shortages and post-conflict reconstruction costs.

According to the AOAV report, a total of 43,786 deaths and injuries were reported worldwide in 2015 as a result of the use of explosive weapons – up two percent from 2014. Civilian deaths accounted for 33,307 or 76 percent of deaths. Over the past five years, AOAV has recorded a total of 188,331 deaths and injuries across the world.

South Sudan’s Road to Peace

On Tuesday, 26 April, South Sudan’s rebel chief Riek Machar finally returned to the capital Juba, where he was sworn in as vice president of a unity government that was formed in order to end more than two years of civil war in the world’s newest country. His return, which was delayed by a week, is seen as a critical step towards cementing a fragile peace agreement that was brokered in August 2015.

The conflict in South Sudan, which won independence from Sudan in 2011, has pitted government troops loyal to President Salva Kiir against those of Machar, who was dismissed as vice president five months before the war began in December 2013. Tens of thousands have been killed and more than two million people forced from their homes.

Key Events in the War

2013

• 15 December – Heavy gunfire erupts in Juba, where tensions have been rising since July when Machar was dismissed as vice president.   Kiir blames Machar for an attempted coup, however Machar denies this and accuses the president of purging his rivals. Fighting spreads and rebels seize control of key towns.

2014

• 10 – 20 January – Uganda sends troops to back Kiir. Government troops recapture the northern city of Bentiu, capital of the oil-rich Unity State, and Bor, the capital of the eastern state of Jonglei.
• 15 – 17 April – According to the United Nations, more than 350 civilians are killed in Bentiu and Bor.
• 26 August – A UN helicopter is shot down, with three onboard killed. Each side blames the other.

2015

• 1 February – Kiir and Machar sign a new agreement to end the fighting, in what is the latest in a series of deals. However like the others, it is broken within days.
• 30 June – According to a UN rights report, South Sudan’s army raped then torched girls alive inside their homes. The report warns of “widespread human rights abuses.” Rebels have been accused of similar atrocities.
• 2 July – UN and US sanctions decided against six leaders from both sides.
• 17 August – Machar signs a peace agreement in Addis Ababa.
• 26 August – Kiir signs the peace accord, however he issues a list of “serious reservations.” Fighting continues.
• 3 October – Kiir nearly triples the number of regional states, undermining a key power-sharing clause of the peace agreement.
• 28 October – African Union investigators list atrocities committed, which include forced cannibalism and dismemberment.
• 5 November – UN experts warn that killings, rapes and abductions continue and that both sides are stockpiling weapons. Over two dozens armed groups are involved in fighting characterized by shifting alliances, opportunism and historic grievances.
• 27 November – The UN reports that some 16,000 children have been forced to fight, amidst a growing humanitarian crisis. More than 2.8 million people, almost a quarter of the population, needs emergency food aid.

2016

• 8 February – UN agencies warn that at least 40,000 people are being starved to death in the war zone, with rival forces blocking aid.
• 12 February – Kiir reappoints Machar as vice president.
• 11 April – A 1,370-strong rebel force completes their arrival in Juba ahead of Machar’s expected return.
• 12 April – South Sudan’s rebel deputy chief Alfred Ladu Gore arrives in the capital.
• 25 April – South Sudan’s top rebel military commander Simon Gatwech Dual returns to the capital.
• 26 April – Machar returns to Juba and is sworn in as vice president. UN Security General Ban Ki-moon calls for a new unity government to be set up immediately.

Violence in Burundi Significantly Increases in April

On Wednesday, the United Nations human rights chief disclosed that 31 people have been killed in attacks in Burundi this month, decrying an increase in violence in the East African country.

In a statement, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad al Hussein disclosed that “some 31 people have been killed in attacks so far in April, compared to a total of nine people in the last month.” He added, “I fear that the increasing number of targeted assassinations will inevitably exacerbate the already extremely dangerous spiral of violence and unrest in Burundi.”

In the latest incident, which occurred Monday 25 April, gunmen killed a brigadier general who was a senior adviser to the vice president.

Tit-for-tat attacks between President Pierre Nkurunzia’s security forces and his opponents escalated a year ago when he announced a disputed bid for a third term in office, a bid that he went on to win in July. The UN has disclosed that more than 400 people have been killed since then and more than 250,000 have fled the country. Earlier this week, the International Criminal Court (ICC) announced that it would investigate the ongoing violence in Burundi.

France to Seek State of Emergency Extension to Cover Euro 2016 Football Tournament

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls has disclosed that the French government plans to extend a state of emergency, which was initially imposed in the wake of the 13 November 2015 attack in Paris, to cover the Euro 2016 football tournament, which the country will host in June.

During a radio interview, the Prime Minister indicated that given the scale of the event, security has to be ensured. He confirmed that Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve will seek other minister’s approval of the extension later on Wednesday 20 April before asking parliament to vote on it, adding “the state of emergency cannot be permanent, but on the occasion of these big events…we have to prolong it.”

The European football competition involves twenty-four national teams and will run from 10 June to 10 July. The proposed two-month extension, which would also cover the Tour de France bicycle race, however will require parliamentary approval. The current state of emergency, which gives police additional powers to carry out searches and place people under house arrest, runs until 26 May. Despite concerns raised by rights groups, who reported that police had abused their powers the state of emergency was extended for an additional three months in February.

The coordinated gun and bomb attacks in Paris in November killed 130 people and were claimed by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. The Stade de France football stadium, which will host the opening match of Euro 2016 and the final, was targeted by suicide bombers.

Security will be tight at the Euro 2016 tournament, with more than 1,200 security officials deployed for matches at the Stade de France, and an average of 900 across all stadiums in France. On Friday, 15 April, Mr Cazeneuve disclosed that more than 3,500 searches and 400 arrests have been carried out since the state of emergency was first imposed in November.

Olympic Torch Lit as Countdown to Rio Games Begins

The flame for the Summer Olympic Games, which will be hosted by Brazil, has been lit in southern Greece.

During Thursday’s ceremony, actor Katerina Lehou performed the role of high priestess lit the torch by using the sun’s rays, offering a mock prayer to Apollo, the old Greek god of light and music. She lit the torch within a few seconds by using a concave mirror to catch the sunlight. She then delivered the flame to Greek world gymnastics champion Eleftherios Petrounias, the first runner in the torch relay. The ritual, which was established eighty years ago for the Berlin Games, is based on a ceremony in Ancient Olympia where games were held for more than 1,000 years.

The torch will be taken to various runners on an international relay that will culminate at the opening ceremony in Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro on 5 August. The chief organizer of the Games, Carlos Nuzman, has promised to “delivery history,” stating that the Olympics would unit Brazil, which is beset by political and economic crises. Brazil President Dilma Rousseff was forced to cancel her trip to ancient Olympia because of the impeachment threat that she faces.

According to the International Olympic Committee (IOC), before the flame arrives in South America, it will begin a six-day relay across Greece, passing through the town of Marathon, which gave its name to the long distance race, as well as a camp for refugees and migrants in Athens. The flame is due to arrive in Brazil on 3 May for a 100-day relay across the country. It will travel through 500 cities and villages in every Brazilian state and will be carried by about 12,000 torch bearers.