MS Risk Blog

Venezuelan Security Forces Block Anti-government Protest in Caracas

Security forces clashed with thousands of protesters trying to reach the headquarters of Venezuela’s electoral body Wednesday to demand a referendum to recall unpopular President Nicolas Maduro. The clashes occurred after police blocked access to the National Electoral Centre and used teargas to disperse the crowd. A few demonstrators were arrested and one protester was carried off unconscious, according to witnesses. Opposition leaders warned Venezuela was a “time bomb” and said blocking democratic avenues for Maduro’s removal meant Venezuelans would increasingly take to the streets.

The anti-government protest came days after socialist President Nicolas Maduro declared a state of emergency due to what he called plots from within the country and from the US to topple his leftist government. The decree gives the government and security forces broad authorization to ignore most constitutional safeguards in a bid to keep order and supply basic food and services, and to counter an energy shortage. The measures are to last for 60 days with the option of being renewed for further periods of 60 days. President Nicolas Maduro also said that Venezuela would hold national military exercises to prepare the country for “any scenario”.

Two weeks ago, the electoral body received a petition signed by 1.85 million people demanding a referendum to oust President Nicolas Maduro. The constitution establishes that a referendum will be called to decide if the president remains in power if a second petition is signed by at least 20 percent of the electorate, nearly four million people. However, the government made it clear that the referendum would not go ahead. Venezuela’s Vice-President Aristóbulo Istúriz said the referendum would not take place due to procedural errors. Isturiz said the opposition had “acted too late, had done it wrong and had committed fraud.” The opposition fear authorities are trying to delay a referendum until 2017, when — under the Constitution — the presidency would fall to the vice-president.

On Friday, US intelligence officials warned that Venezuela was descending into economic and political chaos that was likely to end in street violence, military suppression of citizens’ rights, and a possible coup to remove President Nicolas Maduro. According to recent polls, President Maduro’s approval ratings fell to a low of 33 percent, with two-thirds of Venezuelans thinking Maduro’s presidency should end this year. The discontent emanates from a shrinking economy, rising inflation, and severe food and power shortages.

UN Alarmed at Boko Haram’s Links to IS

On 13 May, the United Nations Security Council disclosed that it is alarmed by Boko Haram’s ties to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, adding that it is throwing its support behind a Nigerian-led regional summit to confront the threat.

In a statement, the 15-member Council disclosed that it welcomed President Muhammadu Buhari’s “crucial initiative” to hold the Summit on 14 May, which will be attended by regional leaders as well as French President Francois Hollande. It adds that the summit should help develop “a comprehensive strategy to address the governance, security, development, socio-economic and humanitarian dimensions of the crisis.” The Council also expressed “alarm at Boko Haram’s linkages with the Islamic State” and voiced “deep concern that the activities of Boko Haram continue to undermine the peace and stability of the West and Central African region.” Last year, Boko Haram pledged allegiance to IS and Nigerians have ben reportedly fighting in lawless Libya. The group also has ties with al-Qaeda-linked groups that operate in the wider Sahel region. The Council also renewed its call for regional countries Cameroon, Chad and Niger in a multinational joint task force to “further enhance regional military cooperation and coordination” to root out Boko Haram. It also demanded that Boko Haram “immediately and unequivocally cease all violence and all abuses of human rights” and “release all those abducted” including the 219 schoolgirls who were kidnapped in Chibok, Nigeria in April 2014.

The Council statement was drafted by the United States as a show of support for President Buhari on the eve of the meeting.

Nigeria Opens Summit on Combatting Boko Haram

On 14 May, regional and western powers gathered in Nigeria to attend talks on quelling the threat from Boko Haram.

Speaking to reporters shortly after meeting with Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari in Abuja, French President Francois Hollande stated that “impressive” gains has been made against the Islamists by greater cooperation, warning however that “this terrorist group nevertheless remains a threat.”  The Nigerian leader has invited leaders from Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger, whose troops will make up a new regional force against Boko Haram, which has been pushed to northeastern Nigeria’s borders around Lake Chad.  The 8,500-member force, which has African Union (AU) backing and which is based in Chad’s capital, N’Djamena under a Nigerian general, was supposed to have deployed July 2015.  Plugging gaps and improving coordination between the armies that are currently operating largely independently is seen as vital in the remote region where borders are known to be porous.  Saturday’s summit, which comes two years after a first such high-level gathering in Paris, also comes as Nigeria’s military pushes deep into Boko Haram’s Sambisa Forest stronghold after recapturing swathes of territory.  While President Buhari has vowed to defeat Boko Haram before the end of his first year in office later this month, and the army portraying the Islamists as being in disarray, there have been warnings against any premature declaration of victory.  Deputy US Secretary of State Anthony Blinking disclosed in Washington, which is flying surveillance drones over northeastern Nigeria from a base in northern Cameroon, that he did not see Boko Haram as defeated.  However he conceded that “they have been degraded,” adding that the US was “extremely vigilant” about the connections, amidst reports of Boko Haram rebels fighting in lawless Libya and the group’s ties to al-Qaeda affiliates in the wider Sahel region.  Speaking to reporters on Friday, he disclosed that “this is against something we are looking at very, very carefully because we want to cut it off.”  British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has also warned about Boko Haram’s ties to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, stating that progress was being made against the group with help from London, Paris and Washington.  He added in his statement that “…we must maintain the momentum to win the war, and build the right conditions for post-conflict stability in the region.”  With Boko Haram now on the back foot, attention has increasingly started to turn towards the plight of those that have been displaced by the ongoing insurgency.  Two million Nigerians have been internally displaced and are now living in host communities or camps.  The government of Borno State, which has been the worst-hit by the violence, has stated that the displaced face a “food crisis” and US $5.9 billion was needed to rebuild shattered infrastructure.  United States Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power, who visited northeastern Nigeria and northern Cameroon last month, has indicated that 9.2 million people in the wider region were affected by the conflict.

The final communiqué disclosed that a “global approach” was required, comprising of hard and soft power in order to end the threat.  Britain’s Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond characterized the fight against extremist ideology as “a generational struggle against an evil that will destroy us if we do not destroy it.”  He further told the gathering that “we must sustain this fight until evil is defeated and good prevails,” and called for countries affected to win the “hears and minds of those terrorized by Boko Haram.”  US Deputy Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also disclosed that respect for human rights was essential, after repeated accusations of military abuses against civilians and Bok Haram suspects.  He further warned that not addressing the drivers of extremism – poverty, deprivation, lack of opportunity and education, would create “Bok Haram 2.0” even if the group were defeated militarily.

Security Advisory: Venezuela (17 May 2016)

Executive Summary

President Nicolas Maduro has called a constitutional state of emergency in Venezuela in the face of the country’s severe economic crisis and ongoing social and political protests. MS Risk is closely monitoring the situation on the ground and has consultants in place to provide emergency evacuation services or security risk advice to travellers and personnel should the situation further deteriorate.

Situation

During the weekend May 15-16 significant demonstrations rocked the capital Caracas, as anti-government demonstrators clashed with the police and pro-government supporters. The opposition are calling for a referendum to challenge Maduro’s presidency in the face of the spiralling economic crisis. Demonstrations are likely to continue in Caracas and other cities throughout the country and intensify in the coming weeks. Maduro has called on the army to prepare for a major exercise to “safeguard” the country from foreign invaders and a potential coup. Maduro has systematically claimed that right-wing groups supported by the US, and former Colombian president Alvaro Uribe, are driving the civil unrest and attempting to carry out a coup. The highly sensitive relationship between the US and Venezuela is likely to ensure that the US will not intervene in the crisis, but push for a regional response.

Security Advisory

MS Risk strongly advises against all non-essential travel to Venezuela at this time.

The opposition are likely to call for peaceful protests in the coming days to maintain pressure on the government to allow a referendum to depose Maduro and trigger presidential elections. There has been speculation that the military generals could carry out a coup, but MS Risk’s sources on the ground have not seen any significant activity to suggest that the army generals are likely to desert the president at this current time. However, Maduro’s hold on power is increasingly at risk as dissident factions within his own party are starting to turn against him in the face of the crippling economic crisis and widespread medical and food shortages. By calling a state of emergency he is likely to use the military to attempt to regain control in the coming weeks, and seize private assets to prop up the flailing economy.

There is a high likelihood of violent protests breaking out across major cities in the coming weeks and MS Risk advises all travellers to be highly vigilant and avoid demonstrations wherever possible. The political and economic meltdown have reached a crisis point and protesters are increasingly angry. Should the military and police respond with heavy handed tactics, violence is likely to break out. This is particularly worrisome given the dire situation of the country’s hospitals and lack of ambulance and paramedic supplies.

MS Risk strongly advises travellers in Venezuela to avoid engaging in political discussions in public in the highly polarised current environment. We advise not to wear any colours or items that could be misconstrued by the crowds as being partisan, eg red items of clothing, or khaki military looking attire.

There are widespread shortages of medicine on the open market and most pharmacies are empty. Hospitals and clinics are facing a serious public health crisis. The economic crisis has resulted in a major public health issue across the country with hospitals struggling to provide basic medicines such as antibiotics, intravenous solutions and sanitation products (soap, gloves, disinfectants). Alongside this, constant water shortages and blackouts have seen a significant uptick in preventable deaths. In January 2016 the opposition in Congress declared a state of humanitarian emergency and passed a law to allow international aid to prop up the health system. President Maduro rejected the effort as an attempt to privatise the hospital system. Protesters are now calling for the international community to intervene.

MS Risk advises travellers to Venezuela to bring their own emergency medical supplies and sanitary provisions (shampoo, soap, deodorant, toilet paper, etc). It should be highlighted that it is extremely difficult to purchase baby milk and diapers on the open market and MS Risk notes the high risk to travellers or expatriates that may fall ill. The crisis in the hospital and current widespread shortages and power shortages significantly limit the capacity of x-ray machines, oxygen tanks and other respiratory machines. Any traveller to Venezuela must make contingency plans on how to access medical attention should they fall ill, or plans for an emergency evacuation.

There are widespread food shortages, with many shops completely bare and long queues for basic provisions. Looting has become commonplace and violent scuffles regularly occur in the fight to gain basic food supplies. Numerous factories have stopped producing in recent weeks because of the shortages of key ingredients entering the country and constant energy shortages. The government has claimed in the current state of emergency it will seize private factories by force to make them produce basic provisions.

There are rolling blackouts throughout the country, including in Caracas. Schools are officially closed on Fridays and government workers are operating a two-day week in the face of constant energy shortages. Any travellers to Venezuela should be aware that internet access may be severely limited during power outages, and should not depend on electronic devices to navigate the city or make travel plans. It is advisable to map out your daily travel routes and to prepare for limited cell phone coverage and internet access, particularly if significant civil unrest breaks out and the networks are brought down.

The economy is in a state of freefall with the IMF predicting inflation at 700% this year. Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves, but its economy retracted 5.7% last year and is predicted to further retract 8% this year, sharply affected by the falling oil prices. The government has so far managed to not default on its debt by significantly cutting costs that have exacerbated the aforementioned food and medical shortages. However, it is increasingly likely that the Venezuelan oil firm PDVSA will default on its $5bn bond payments between now and the end of the year, further shaking confidence in the economy’s ability to rally. The country has drained its foreign reserves, and despite hyperinflation cannot print money quick enough to pay the current debts.

Private companies face a significant risk of non-payment on government contracts. Numerous airline carriers have cut their services to Venezuela since 2014 because of rising insecurity and the government’s inability to pay many contracts. In the oil services sector, providers such as Halliburton and Schlumberger have scaled back their operations because they are owed hundreds of millions of dollars in government contracts. In the current state of emergency that is likely to extend into July, private companies’ assets are at risk as the government will look to nationalise companies to prop up the economy.

Venezuela has some of the highest rates of violence crime in the world, with Caracas registering one of the highest homicide rates in the world in 2015. MS Risk advises travellers to be particularly aware of the dangerous on the road between the Simon Bolivar Airport and Caracas, where regular violent muggings and attacks are reported, often by criminals posing as taxi drivers. MS Risk strongly advises travellers not to use any street taxis or public transport, and to use official drivers with secure vehicles to navigate in the city, particularly in the current climate of widespread roadblocks amid demonstrations.

Major Incidents (1 – 15 May 2016)

15 May         Venezuela will hold national military exercises to prepare the country for “any scenario”, President Nicolas Maduro said. On Friday, Maduro extended the economic state of emergency in the country for three more months.

 14 May         Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro declared a 60-day state of emergency on Friday due to what he called plots from within the country and from the US to topple his leftist government. Maduro did not provide details of the measure. A previous state of emergency, implemented in states near the Colombian border last year, suspended constitutional guarantees in those areas, except for guarantees relating to human rights.

The Venezuelan government has imposed a ban on protests in the capital Caracas over concerns that they could lead to deadly clashes between supporters and opponents of President Nicolas Maduro. The decision comes as the opposition is pressing ahead with a drive to remove Maduro from power through a referendum.

13 May         Venezuela’s Attorney General on Wednesday charged nearly a dozen people, including an Interpol official and five national guards in connection with a shipment of drugs seized in the Dominican Republic in March. Prosecutors charged the men with drug trafficking and conspiracy.

11 May         Soldiers and police officers fired tear gas at protesters on Wednesday as Venezuela’s opposition marched to pressure electoral authorities into allowing a recall referendum against leftist President Nicolas Maduro. Hundreds marched in the capital of Caracas as well as the provinces but authorities blocked them. The Democratic Unity coalition has ramped up its push to oust Maduro amid a worsening economic crisis, but says the government-leaning electoral body is intentionally delaying the verification of signatures in favour of the referendum.

 Nine members of a criminal gang were killed during a crackdown by security forces on crime around the capital of Venezuela. Authorities seized rifles and grenades during the raids. Officers also arrested 15 other suspects wanted by the courts for homicide, drug trafficking and robbery. They also detained 80 Colombians who were in the country illegally.

7 May          The leader of a Venezuelan opposition party in the north-western state of Lara was shot dead by unidentified attackers on Friday. The victim was German Mavares, the state head of the New Time party. It is difficult to establish whether the killing was politically motivated or random violence in a country with one of the world’s highest murder rates.

 Venezuela’s National Guard killed a notorious paramilitary chief during a military ambush in the rural state of Guarico. Jose Tovar Colina was the leader of Los Picures gang, a paramilitary group involved in a series of hired killings, kidnappings and vehicle hijackings. Three other alleged members of Los Pictures gang were also killed in the shoot-out.

4 May          Venezuelan officials say the country’s most wanted gang leader has been killed in a shootout with police. Interior Minister Gustavo Gonzalez identified Jose Colina as the leader of a gang that dominated several states in the center of Venezuela.

2 May          Venezuelan opposition has delivered Monday more than 1.85 million signatures to the National Electoral Board for verification as part of a petition to launch the first stage for a referendum on removing President Nicolas Maduro. If the electoral board accepts the signatures as valid the opposition will then have to collect four million more for the board to organize the vote.

Germany Declares Three North African Countries “Safe”

On 13 May, Germany’s lower house of parliament approved a draft law effectively declaring Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia as safe countries. The move was done in a bid to ease deportation of failed asylum seekers from those North African states.

The law passed easily in the Bundestag lower house, where Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives and their left-leaning Social Democrat coalition partners hold a majority. Only three lawmakers abstained from the vote while 424 voted for bill and 143 voted against it. The government commissioner for human rights, Baerbel Kofler, voted against the bill, stating that there were “proven and documented human rights violations” in those three countries. Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere has defended the law, stating that only 0.7 percent of asylum applicants from the three North African countries were granted refugees status in the first three months of this year.

The bill, which has been criticized by human rights groups as well as the opposition Greens and hard left Die Linke, still needs to be receive final approval from parliament’s upper house. If passed, the law will effectively allow German authorities to speed up the processing of asylum applicants from those countries and deport them if they are rejected.

In January, the German government tightened asylum rules in a bid to stem an influx of migrants, which last year saw more than one million people entering the country. Most of those who entered Germany in 2015 were asylum seekers fleeing conflicts in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq.