MS Risk Blog

Update: Ash Shihr Oil Terminal, Yemen – 3 August, 2016

Due to the value of the export terminal and its proximity to Mukalla port, Ash Shihr terminal is considered high risk. MS Risk advises extreme caution for vessels traveling to this port.

In late April, forces loyal to Yemen’s recognised government recaptured the Ash Shihr oil terminal from al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, who controlled the port for over a year. The port resumed opperations on 22 July. While no significant attempts have been made against the Ash Shihr terminal, both AQAP and IS have recently targeted nearby Mukallah port, approximately 40 miles away. Control of Mukallah was also wrested from AQAP earlier this year, and attacks agains the port have been conducted both on land and at sea.

On 2 August, Hadi government security forces alongside coalition forces disrupted a coordinated attack that was planned by AQAP on al Mukalla port.  AQAP militants attempted to attack the port with artillery and machine guns, while others approached the port by boat.  Hadi-allied forces arrested some of the attackers, yet others managed to escape.

Nearly 80% of Yemen’s oil exports have been conducted through Ash Shihr terminal, making the port an attractive and valuable target. It may be viewed as an iconic or strategic target by local insurgents.  As the port resumes normal shipping operations, there is a strong likelihood of attempts to disrupt activities both on land and at sea.

Security has been reinforced around both Ash Shirh and Mukalla ports, however pirates or militant groups attempting to conduct maritime attacks do not require a port in order to launch a skiff. This may result in a higher risk to warter-borne security in the vicinities nearest to the ports. Shipmasters and owners should remain aware of the situation at all times, including changes to protocol when entering Yemeni maritime waters or ports. It is anticipated that friendly naval forces will increase their presence which will lead to increased boardings, inspections and overall protection/deterrence however this has not been confirmed yet.

IS Calls For Attacks In Russia

In a nine-minute video posted on YouTube on Sunday, the so-called Islamic State (IS) group has called on its members to carry out jihad in Russia.

The video, which has subtitles, depicted footage of armed men attacking armoured vehicles and tens and collecting arms in the desert. One of the subtitles read, “breaking into a barrack of the Rejectionist military on the international road south Akashat.” In the last minutes of the video, a masked men driving a car in the desert yells “Listen Putin, we will come to Russia and we will kill you at your homes…Oh Brothers, carry out jihad and kill and fight them.”

While it was not immediately possible to independently verify the video, the link to the footage was published on a Telegram messaging account used by the militant group. Furthermore, while it was not immediately clear why Russia would be a target, the country, along with the United States, are talking about boosting military and intelligence cooperation against both IS and al-Qaeda in Syria. IS has called on its supporters to take action with any available weapons targeting countries it has been fighting.

Over the past several weeks, there has been a string of deadly attacks that have been claimed by IS. Last week, assailants loyal to IS forced an elderly Catholic priest in France to his knees before slitting his throat. Since the mass killing in Nice, southern France on 14 July, there have been four incidents that have occurred in Germany, including the most recent suicide bombing that occurred at a concern in Ansbach.

Belgium Launches Raids

Police operations carried out in Mons and Liege last week resulted in two brothers being arrested on suspicion of carrying an attack on the country.

One of the men arrested, named only as Nouredine H, 33, has ben charged over an alleged plot to attack Belgium. He is accused of attempting to commit a “terrorist murder” and participation in the activities of a terrorist organization and was arrested along with his brother Hamza H. Hamza H. has since been released from police custody without charge. The raids were carried out by federal police in the cities of Mons and Liege, with officials disclosing that no weapons or explosives were found during the operations. In a statement, the federal prosecution office disclosed that “based on provisional results from the investigation, it appears that there were plans to carry out an attack somewhere in Belgium.” The French version of the statement referred to “planning attacks” in the plural.

Belgium is currently on security alert level three, of four, effectively meaning that the threat is considered serious, possible and probable. In March, thirty-two people were killed after attacks were carried out on Brussels Airport and a metro station in the city. Last month, Belgian police disclosed that they had received warning that a group of so-called Islamic State (IS) fighters had recently left Syria and were heading to Europe to plan attacks in Belgium and neighbouring France.

EU Proposes New Asylum Rules in Latest Bid to Stop Migrants Crossing Europe

On 13 July, the European Commission proposed more unified European Union (EU) asylum rules in what is the latest bid to stop people waiting for refugee status moving around the bloc and disrupting its passport-free zone.

Last year, in an unprecedented wave of migration, 1.3 million people reached the European continent, with most ignoring legal restrictions and instead opting to trek from the Mediterranean coast to apply for asylum in Germany. This prompted some EU countries to suspend the Schengen Area system, which allows free passage between most EU states.

The new proposal would standardize refugee reception facilities across the bloc and unify the level of state support that they can get, setting common rules on residence permits, travel papers, access to jobs, schools, social welfare and healthcare. It would grant prospective refugees swifter rights to work, however it would also place more obligations on them, effectively meaning that if they do not cooperate with the authorities or head to an EU state of their choice rather than staying put, their asylum application could be jeopardized. The Commission has stated that the five-year waiting period after which refugees are eligible for long-term residence would be started if they move from their designated country.     According to EU Migration Commissioner Dimitis Avramopoulos, “the change will create a genuine common asylum procedure,” adding that “at the same time, we set clear obligations and duties for asylum seekers to prevent secondary movements and abuse of procedures.”

The United Nations refugee agency UNHCR has already indicated that it has concerns about the new rules, stating that the new system must not lower standards of protection and asylum.

The plan, which will be reviewed by EU governments and the European Parliament, comes after Brussels proposed in May a system for distributing asylum seekers, an idea that has been opposed by eastern EU states, which refuse to accept refugees. The Commission has reported that only 3,056 people have so far been relocated under the scheme that was meant for 160,000 people. Both Hungary and Slovakia have challenged the system in the courts.

Record Number of Terror Attacks Recorded in EU During 2015

Last year, a record number of terrorist attacks were planned, foiled or carried out within European Union (EU) countries, with the United Kingdom reporting the highest number of attacks.

EU law enforcement agency Europol has reported that in 2015, there were 211 attack, the highest since records began in 2006. The failed, foiled and completed terrorist attacks occurred in six EU member states: Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, Spain and the UK. Of these countries, the UK had the highest number of attacks, 103 in total, in which most are believed to have been in Northern Ireland.

France had the highest number of planned, foiled or completed attacks – 72 – followed by Spain with 25. A spokeswoman for Europol has disclosed that it did not have a breakdown of the number of terror attacks that had actually been carried out in the EU.

According to the agency’s EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report, there were 1,000 arrests for terrorist-related offences last year, in which 424 occurred in France. Europol has further reported that more than half of arrests that occurred in the EU – 687 – were “for jihadist terrorism,” adding that of these arrests, 94% were later found guilty in court. In addition to the jihadist terrorist arrests, there were 67 arrests for left-wing terror; 11 for right-wing terror; and 168 separatist. A further 144 arrests were unspecified. Europol has reported that 151 people died and that more than 360 were injured in terrorist incidents that occurred last year.

In its report, Europol states that “as in previous years, the attacks specifically classified as separatist terrorism accounted for the largest proportion, followed by jihadist attacks.” Europol also noted that the report outlines two “worrying developments,” stating that “the overall threat is reinforced by the substantial numbers of returned foreign terrorist fighters that many member states now have on their soil, and the significant rise in nationalist (xenophobic), racist and anti-Semitic sentiments across the EU, each resulting in acts of right-wing extremism.” While Europol has indicated that there was “no concrete evidence to date that terrorist travellers systematically use the flow of refugees to enter Europe unnoticed,” it noted that two of the men who carried out the 13 November terror attacks in Paris France, which killed 130 people, had entered the EU through Greece as part of the influx of refugees from Syria.

The report also highlighted that nuclear power plants and nuclear weapon facilities in the EU “remain potential targets for terrorists,” as does “the deliberate contamination of water supplies,” adding “explosive remnants of war and illicit trafficking in explosives from former conflict areas present a significant threat to the EU.” The report goes on to state that “chemical facilities or companies, especially these perceived as having a low profile until recently, can become a vulnerable target,” adding, “terrorists prefer the use of conventional firearms and explosives because of their availability, simplicity and effectiveness. Europol also described cyber terrorism as “high potential but currently low probability.”