MS Risk Blog

Congressional Report Concludes that US Military was too Positive in IS Fight

A United States Congressional report issued this month has found that the US Central Command’s analysis of the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS) militants was too positive in 2014 and 2015, compared with events on the ground and other intelligence analysis. 2014 represented the height of IS’ rapid expansion as the militant group grabbed a swath of territory, effectively spreading from Iraq into central Syria.

The report was released by a task force that was established by the Republican chairmen of the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, Intelligence Committee and Defense Appropriations subcommittee. It found “widespread dissatisfaction” amongst analysts at US Central Command who felt that their superiors wee distorting their products. In a statement, Republican Representative Ken Calvert, a member of the task force, discloses that “what happened at CENTCOM is unacceptable – our war fighters suffer when bad analysis is presented to senior policymakers. We must continue our efforts until we fix it.”

According to Patrick Evans, a Pentagon spokesman, the Department of Defense had initiated a separate investigation into the issue and would take no action or make any comment that could influence the inspector general’s work. As a general comment however, he stated that the intelligence community routinely provides a wide range of assessments, noting that “experts sometimes disagree on the interpretation of complex data, and the Intelligence Community and Department of Defense welcome healthy dialogue on these vital national security topics.”

Military Campaigns in Iraq and Syria Reducing Number of IS Fighters

The top United States commander for the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS) group reported this month that military campaigns in Iraq and Syria have taken 45,000 enemy combatants off the battlefield and reduced the total number of IS fighters to as few as 15,000.

Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland disclosed that both the quality and number of IS fighters is declining, warning however that it is difficult to determine accurate estimates. Earlier estimates put the number of IS fighters between 19,000 and 25,000 however US officials have stated that the range is now roughly 15,000 to 20,000.

Stating that “the enemy is in retreat on all fronts,” MacFarland disclosed that US-backed local forces in both Iraq and in neighbouring Syria have been gaining ground, adding that the flow of foreign fighters into these two countries has decreased and that many people pressed into fighting for IS are unwilling or untrained. Speaking to Pentagon reporters during a video conference, MacFarland stated, “all I know is when we go someplace, its easier to go there now than it was a year ago. And the enemy doesn’t put up as much of a fight.”

MacFarland went on to state that Syrian democratic forces are on the brink of defeating IS in Manbij, Syria, in a matter of weeks. According to MacFarland, the city is largely in the hands of the Syrian democratic forces and the pockets of enemy resistance are shrinking daily, adding, “I don’t give it very long before that operation is concluded, and that will deal a decisive blow to the enemy.” Asked how long it will take, he stated possibly a week or two, however he noted that there was still a lot of enemy foreign fighters there battling hard to keep control of the city.

Meanwhile in neighbouring Iraq, MacFarland disclosed that Iraqi forces are in a position to begin to retake the northern city of Mosul, adding that the US still has quite a bit of work to do at the Qayyarah Air Base in northern Iraq before it can be used as a hub for the battle to retake Mosul. President Barack Obama authorized the deployment of 560 more US troops to Iraq in a bid to help transform the air base into a staging area for the eventual battle to oust IS from Mosul. The group has held the city since June 2014, using it as its headquarters.   The US troops will include engineers, logistics personnel, security and communications forces. Some teams of US forces have been in and out of the base to evaluate it and the work that must be done, with officials stating that large numbers of troops have not yet arrived.

Despite successes in both countries against the militant group, MacFarland cautioned that Is will continue to be a threat, stating, “military success in Iraq and Syria will not necessarily mean the end of Daesh,” using an Arabic acronym for the Islamic state group.” H e went on to state that “we can expect the enemy to adapt, to morph into a true insurgent force and terrorist organization capable of horrific attacks like the one here on July 3 in Baghdad and those others we’ve seen around the world.”

Bombing IS Campaign in Syria and Iraq: Statistics

While United States President Barack Obama was determined not to get into a full war in Syria and Iraq, statistics from the two-year campaign show that the war is far from over.

When the US-led coalition began bombing the so-called Islamic State (IS) group’s targets in Iraq and Syria, senior general and politicians warned at the time that it would be a “generational struggle” that would “last many years.” Two years on, that prediction has proved to be accurate and while the campaign has had its successes, it appears to be far from over.

More than 14,000 strikes have been carried out in the past two years at a cost of US $8.4 billion to the United States and US $365 million to the United Kingdom. In these strikes, some 26,000 targets have been either damaged or destroyed. Rather than lessening the campaign, officials have opted to step it up in its second year. In its second year, there have been 2,336 more airstrikes, which have also resulted in twice as many civilian deaths. According to a London-based monitor, called Airwars, 1,080 civilians have been killed. The Pentagon however assesses that only fifty-five civilians have been killed by US aircraft while the UK Ministry of Defense states that British airstrikes have not resulted in any innocent deaths. In Iraq, some 3.2 million Iraqis have been displaced, however the number of Syrians is considerably greater and this mass exodus has changed borders, swelled towns and emptied cities.

While when he first announced the airstrikes in 2014, President Barack Obama stated that he “…will not allow the United States to be dragged into fighting another war in Iraq,” that appears to have failed as there are currently some 3,800 US soldiers in Iraq. US, UK and French Special Forces are also operating in Iraq as well as in Syria. A further 400 American troops will also be deployed to an airbase south of Mosul to help the push on that strategic city.

Europe’s Toughened Borders Result in Migrants Seeking to Reach Americas

According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), Europe’s toughened borders are prompting migrants to switch their focus to the United States however their trek is being thwarted in Central America, where a bottleneck has formed.

The IOM has reported that in Costa Rica, a makeshift camp has sprung up, housing hundreds of Africans and Haitians. Elsewhere in the country, smaller numbers of Afghans and Pakistanis are biding their time to head north, with officials estimating that there are now 2,000 such migrants in the country. They are being stalled by Nicaragua, which eight months ago strictly closed its border to migrants without visas. The move was carried out in order to mainly stop the flow of thousands of US-bound Cubans through its territory. That closed-door policy however has also trapped what are being called “extra-continental” migrants – effectively meaning those who are coming from outside Latin America.

In the wake of the March 2016 agreement between the European Union (EU) and Turkey, which aims to send back migrants trying to reach Europe through Greece, coupled with eastern European states building barriers across their borders, the number of migrants in Costa Rica has increased. The IOM’s representative in Costa Rica, Roeland de Wilde, discloses that “we have documented cases of people telling us they chose this route to the United States or Canada because they felt that getting to Europe was too dangerous, that it was too difficult to enter Europe or the conditions in Europe weren’t what they hoped for,” adding that most of them seem to be coming through from Brazil and other South American countries that are facing declining economic situations.” Wilde further reported that the Pakistanis and Afghans, who account for around 10 percent of the migrants, are well-organized and often lay up in basic hotels, adding that most who states that they are from Africa are making do with plastic sheets strung up as shelter by the roadside.

The IOM however notes that not all of the latter are “extra-continental” migrants, although many pretend to be. According to Wilde, “more than half” of the migrants who present themselves as Africans are from Haiti, an impoverished Caribbean country with a predominately black population that speaks French. He adds that “they say they are Congolese, but when questioned they don’t know form which part of Congo they come from,” adding, “sometimes they say Kinshasa or Brazzaville, mixing up one Congo for the other. When asked which ethnicity they belong to, they have no idea.” The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), whose capital is Kinshasa, and the Republic of Congo, ruled from Brazzaville, are neighbours located in central Africa. While both use French, the former is riven by deadly ethnic violence in its east, increasing the odds of emigrants from there receiving asylum.

NGO Warns That Sierra Leone and Liberia at Risk for New Deadly Epidemic

An NGO warned this month that Sierra Leone and Liberia are at risk for a new deadly epidemic akin to the impact of the Ebola virus because of a lack of clean water and hygienic conditions in most homes.

WaterAid has reported that the two provisions were the “first line of defense” against infectious diseases, noting however they needed to be put in place before outbreaks began. In a statement, the British-based group disclosed that in Liberia, 24.5 percent of people do not have access to clean water. In Sierra Leone, this figure stands at more than 37 percent. WaterAid further added that when it comes to basic sanitation, the figures are even higher, with just over 83 percent in Liberia living without access to it and 86.7 percent of people in Sierra Leone. In the statement WaterAid’s Joe Lambongang disclosed that “the terrible suffering of the people of Sierra Leone and Liberia during the Ebola crisis is at high risk of being repeated in another disease epidemic if we do not see action to improve water, sanitation and hygiene practices in our communities, schools and healthcare facilities. It further indicated that “these basic provisions are the first line of defense against infectious diseases including Ebola,” adding, “to ask healthcare professionals to battle an epidemic without clean water, safe toilets and somewhere to wash their hands is unrealistic and needlessly puts lives at risk.” In June, Liberia confirmed that it was free of Ebola, effectively meaning that there were no known cases in West Africa of the tropical virus, which left more than 11,300 people dead in the region since late 2013. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared an end on 1 June to Ebola cases in Guinea, where it first broke out in December 2013, and in Sierra Leone on 17 March. According to Sierra Leone’s health ministry figures, 30 percent of the population dies every year of diseases that are passed on by contaminated water.