MS Risk Blog

Air Expert States MH370 was Flown into Water

A world-leading air crash investigator has stated that he believes that flight MH370 was deliberately flown into the sea. The Boeing 777 disappeared while flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 people on board in March 2014.

Speaking to Australian news programme 60 Minutes, Canadian Larry Vance disclosed that erosion along the trailing edge of recovered wing parts indicates a controlled landing. Mr Vance was formerly investigator-in-charge for the Canadian Aviation Safety Board and the Transportation Safety Board of Canada. He has led more than 200 air crash investigations. He was the chief author of a report into the 1998 Swissair flight 111 crash off Nova Scotia, Canada, in which 229 people were killed. The force of that crash broke the plane into more than two million pieces. He has told 60 Minutes that an absence of such wreckage was one factor that suggests MH370 landed in controlled circumstances. During the programme, he states that “somebody was flying the airplane at the end of its flight…Somebody was flying the airplane into the water. There is no other alternate theory that you can follow.”

An Australian-led search for the mission jet has focused on an area of the ocean floor 2,000 kilometres (1,242 miles) off Australia’s western coast. The zone was selected based on the theory that the flight was running on autopilot after veering off course. An official co-ordinating the search effort however has told 60 Minutes that the wreckage could be outside the search zone, if someone had been in control of the plane when it crashed. Despite the extensive search of the southern Indian Ocean, no trace of the aircraft was found until the discovery of a wing section, called a flaperon, on Reunion Island off Madagascar one year ago. Mr Vance states that photographs of the recovered flaperon depict a jagged edge, which suggests high-pressure water erosion that could only be caused if someone had been flying the plane into the ocean. He further states that “the force of the water is really the only thing that could make that jagged edge that we see. It wasn’t broken off. If it was broken off, it would be a clean break. You couldn’t even break that thing.” He also disclosed that the fact that the flaperon had apparently been deployed for landing also indicated that someone was piloting the plane when it hit the ocean, stating, “you cannot get the flaperon to extend any other way than if somebody extended it…Somebody would have to select it.”   Peter Foley, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau’s (ATSB) programme director of the search, has also told 60 Minutes that the type of damage the flaperon sustained provided evidence for the controlled landing theory. Mr Foley was asked: “If there was a rogue pilot, isn’t it possible that the plane was taken outside the parameters of the search area?” To which he replied: “Yeah – if you guided the plane or indeed control-ditched the plane, it has an extended range, potentially,” adding, “there is a possibility…somebody (was) in control at the end and we are actively looking for evidence to support that.”

Mr Vance’s theory is just the latest to emerge on what has become one of aviation’s greatest unsolved mysteries. The search for MH370 has been combing a 120,000 sq km area of seabed using underwater drones and sonar equipment from specialist ships. It is expected to draw to a close by the end of the year if it does not find credible new evidence.

Confirmed/Suspected MH370 Debris Found

1. A section of wing called a flaperon, found on Reunion Island in July 2015 was confirmed in September 2015 as debris from MH370.
2. Horizontal stabilizer from tail section was found between Mozambique and Madagascar in December 2015.
3. Stabilizer panel with “No Step” stencil was found in Mozambique in February 2016.
4. Engine cowling bearing Rolls-Royce logo was found in March 2016 in Mossel Bay, South Africa.
5. A fragment of interior door panel was found in Rodrigues Island, Mauritius in March 2016.
6. Fragments, including what appears to be a seat frame, a coat hook and other panels, were found on Nosy Boraha Island in northeast Madagascar.

Italy Ready to Evaluate Any Request for Airspace in US Strikes in Libya

Defense Minister Roberta Pinotti disclosed last week the the Italian government is ready to “positively evaluate” any request for air base or air space use in the US airstrikes against Islamic State (IS) militants in Libya if that would yield “a more rapid and effective end” to the campaign.

The minister made the comments in response to questions in the Chamber of Deputies about the airstrikes, which were launched on the IS stronghold town of Sirte. Pinotti further disclosed that the US military action, which began last week “will be limited in time and area of operation, doesn’t foresee the use of ground forces and is limited to allowing the Libyan forces to successfully defeat the terrorist forces in the area of Sirte,” adding, “the government is ready to positively evaluate any request for use of bases and air space if that would be functional to a more rapid and effective conclusion to the operation underway.” She noted that so far, the US airstrikes have not involved flights over Italian territory however she added that Premier Matteo Renzi’s government “contends that the success of the fighting aimed at eliminating terroristic centres of ISIS (IS) in Libya is of fundamental importance for the security not just of that country, but also of Europe and Italy.”

On Tuesday 2 August, Italy’s foreign minister disclosed that stabilizing Libya would also help control the migrant crisis. Migrant smugglers have exploited conflict and chaos in Libya to launch boats from its long Mediterranean coast carrying hundreds of thousands of asylum-seekers and other refugees from Africa and the Middle East to Italian shores.

Premier Renzi has in the passed repeatedly stressed that Italy would support anti-IS action in Libya only if the UN-brokered unity government requested such raids. Earlier this year, the Italian government disclosed that armed US drones could use the Sigonella base if needed to protect US military forces in anti-IS strikes in Libya however it stressed that it would not allow the Sicilian base to be used for offensive purposes. US President Barack Obama authorized the Pentagon to open a new, more persistent front against IS insurgents in Libya after the internationally backed government asked for help with precision targeting inside Sirte.

Sharp Increase in Police Killings in Rio Ahead of Games

Amnesty International reported on 2 August that a sharp increase in police killings has effectively cast “a shadow of death” over Rio de Janeiro as the city and country prepares to host the Olympic Games, which are due to begin on 5 August.

The rights group has reported that the number of people killed by police in the crime-plagued Brazilian city has more than doubled between April and June 2016 from a year ago. Citing state security figures, Amnesty disclosed that police in Rio de Janeiro killed 49 people 25 people in April; 40 in May and 49 in June, adding that since 2009, when Rio won the bid to host the Summer Olympic Games, police have killed more than 2,600 people in the city.

In a statement, Atila Roque, director at Amnesty International Brazil, disclosed that “just when we thought the levels of police brutality could not get any more shocking, they do,” adding that “a shadow of death has set over Rio de Janeiro and it seems the authorities only car about how pretty the Olympic Part looks.”

Recent attacks claimed by extremists groups in Europe, coupled with the arrest of a cell with purported links to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group in Brazil in late July, have added to security concerns during the Olympics. While organizers have responded to these concerns by increasing the number of soldiers and police patrolling the event to nearly 90,000, Amnesty has disclosed that poor training and excessive use of lethal force by police are pat of a misguided approach to public security in the South American country.

Speaking recently at a news conference, Renata Neder, a human rights adviser for Amnesty, disclosed that “the authorities are not looking into preventive measures to tackle and to curb the executions by police,” adding that “there are specific cases of people bing killed in operations for the Games.”

Call for National Drive to Promote Mainstream Islam in France

Dozens of prominent French Muslims and Prime Minister Manuel Valls have called for a national drive to promote mainstream Islam in France and to combat the radicalization of young Muslims.

Forty-one prominent Muslims, along with Mr Valls, issued separate appeals in the Journal du Dimanche (JDD) newspaper. The move comes nearly a week after the murder of a priest by Islamist extremists, which shocked the country. Prominent Muslims and Mr Valls have stated that a French Muslim foundation, which was set up in 2005, must be relaunched. In his appeal in JDD, Mr Valls, a Socialist, stated that the French state must avoid “any paternalism” towards Islam, but “there is an urgent need to help Islam in France to rid itself of those who are undermining it from the inside,” adding, “to do that, we have a duty to build a real pact with Islam in France, and give the foundation a central role.” While he did not provide details of what the foundation’s role would be, or how it would interact with mosques, he warned that “if Islam doesn’t help the Republic to fight those who challenge public freedoms, it will get harder for the Republic to guarantee this freedom of worship.” Separately, 41 prominent French Muslims issued a joint statement in JDD, stating, “we must speak up now because Islam has become a public issue and the current situation is intolerable.” Amongst the signatories were former ministerial advisers, entrepreneurs, lawyers, scientists and academics. They deplored the spate of attacks by jihadists in France, including those in Paris last year and most recently the attack in Nice and the murder of an elderly priest in a church in a suburb of Rouen. They further stated, “we Muslims were silent before because we understood that in France religion is a private matter,” a reference to the French state’s strict secular policy.” They added that “a Foundation for Islam in France was set up more than 10 years ago and now it is time to reactivate it…It has never worked properly…but now it should be empowered to collect donations.” They also called for “a cultural battle against radical Islamism among the youth,” stating that it should include transparent funding of mosques, proper training and salaries for imams and theological work. In 2004, the French government stated that the country’s imams must all learn French and widen their education, arguing that a majority of them were from outside France.

Mr Valls’s stance however has drawn some criticism. Two politicians in the right-wing opposition party The Republicans – Eric Ciotti and Christian Estrosi, have accused Mr Valls of hypocrisy for failing to prevent the opening of a Saudi-funded mosque in Nice. There is widespread concern in Europe about the influence of Saudi Arabia’s ultra-conservative Wahhabi version of Islam.

In recent weeks, the French government has been severely criticized by many over its handling of the terrorist threat. On 18 July, Mr Valls was booed during a commemoration ceremony in Nice for the 84 people who were killed by a lorry, which ploughed into a holiday crowd on the city’s beachfront promenade. The Tunisian driver is believed to have been inspired by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. In the wake of last week’s murder of a priest in a church, two men have been arrested. Farid K, 30, a cousin of attacker Abdel Malik Petitjean, was arrested on suspicion of “terrorist association,” while the other man, Jean-Philippe Steven J, 20, was placed under formal investigation for allegedly attempting to travel to Syria in June with Petitjean. Petitjean and accomplice Adel Kermiche, both 19, were shot dead by police.

Update: Ash Shihr Oil Terminal, Yemen – 3 August, 2016

Due to the value of the export terminal and its proximity to Mukalla port, Ash Shihr terminal is considered high risk. MS Risk advises extreme caution for vessels traveling to this port.

In late April, forces loyal to Yemen’s recognised government recaptured the Ash Shihr oil terminal from al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, who controlled the port for over a year. The port resumed opperations on 22 July. While no significant attempts have been made against the Ash Shihr terminal, both AQAP and IS have recently targeted nearby Mukallah port, approximately 40 miles away. Control of Mukallah was also wrested from AQAP earlier this year, and attacks agains the port have been conducted both on land and at sea.

On 2 August, Hadi government security forces alongside coalition forces disrupted a coordinated attack that was planned by AQAP on al Mukalla port.  AQAP militants attempted to attack the port with artillery and machine guns, while others approached the port by boat.  Hadi-allied forces arrested some of the attackers, yet others managed to escape.

Nearly 80% of Yemen’s oil exports have been conducted through Ash Shihr terminal, making the port an attractive and valuable target. It may be viewed as an iconic or strategic target by local insurgents.  As the port resumes normal shipping operations, there is a strong likelihood of attempts to disrupt activities both on land and at sea.

Security has been reinforced around both Ash Shirh and Mukalla ports, however pirates or militant groups attempting to conduct maritime attacks do not require a port in order to launch a skiff. This may result in a higher risk to warter-borne security in the vicinities nearest to the ports. Shipmasters and owners should remain aware of the situation at all times, including changes to protocol when entering Yemeni maritime waters or ports. It is anticipated that friendly naval forces will increase their presence which will lead to increased boardings, inspections and overall protection/deterrence however this has not been confirmed yet.