MS Risk Blog

National Oil Corporation suspends operations at Ras Lanuf Port

National Oil Corporation suspends operations at Ras Lanuf Port

19 September- Over the weekend, fighting resumed for control of key ports in Libya’s oil crescent. Libyan officials delayed a shipment of petroleum at the newly reopened ports.

Last week, forces from Libyan National Army, loyal to the Eastern government, captured Ras Lanuf and Es Sider ports from the Petroleum Facilities Guard. The PFG briefly regained control of the ports, but were forced out again amid renewed fighting. After clashes on Sunday, the ports are back in the control of the PFG.

The NOC suspended operations at Ras Lanuf port as a tanker was loading a shipment of oil to be transported to Italy. The tanker would have been the first to ship from the port since 2014, but withdrew to a safe distance from the port.

Ras Lanuf port itself has not been affected by the fighting so far, but a previously damaged oil storage tank at nearby Es Sider port was set on fire. Firefighting teams were expected to control the blaze rapidly.

THE SITUATION IN LIBYA REMAINS EXTREMELY FLUID. Control of key facilities in Libya have, and could again, change hands with little or no notice. The Eastern government, supported by recently promoted Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and the LNA, does not acknowledge the legitimacy of the UN- backed government. The situation between the opposing factions remains extremely unstable. As a result, ports, infrastructure, and other valuable assets remain at a high risk for violent attack by opposing groups.

MS Risk continues to advise extreme caution to all vessels entering Libyan waters. Ship-owners and masters should correspond with local agents and stay abreast of the most recent information available. 

Cluster Bombs Killed over 400 People in 2015

According to a new report compiled by a Cluster Munitions Coalition, more than 400 people were killed by cluster bombs in 2015, with most of the deaths being reported in Ukraine, Syria and Yemen.

Cluster bombs scatter explosives a wide area and often fail to detonate on impact. The report indicates that 248 deaths were recorded in Syria, followed by Yemen (104); and Ukraine (19). Civilians made u 97% of the death toll while more than a third of the casualties recorded from 2010 – 2015 have been children, who are at a particular risk. The report indicates that the weapon is not banned in all three of these countries, adding that they are not signatories of the Convention on Cluster Munitions, which prohibits the use, stockpiling, production and transfer of the weapons.

The Syrian military has denied possessing or using cluster munitions and in December 2015, the Russian Defense Ministry, which supports the Syrian government, also insisted that “Russian aviation does not use (cluster munitions).” The report however suggests that despite Russia’s denial, “there is compelling evidence that it is using them” in Syria.

Snowden Dismisses US Report into his Activities

Edward Snowden has dismissed a recently released report compiled by the US House of Representatives intelligence committee, which heavily criticised his activities.

The report, which took two years to compile, rejects Mr Snowden’s view of himself as a whistleblower, stating instead that he was a disgruntled employee whose actions did nothing more than help US enemies. Releasing a summary of its 36-page investigation into the case, the House committee disclosed that Mr Snowden had fallen out with his colleagues and lied about his background while at the NSA. It further states that most of the material that he had leaked related to military secrets that had nothing to do with Americans’ privacy but were to “protect American troops overseas and…provide vital defences against terrorists and nation-states.”

In a series of tweets, Mr Snowden dismissed the report’s findings, writing: “their report is so artlessly distorted that it would be amusing if it weren’t such a serious act of bad faith.”

Since 2013, Mr Snowden, a former National Security Agency (NSA) contactor, has been living in Russia. That year, he gained notoriety for releasing thousands of classified documents, which related mass phone and Internet surveillance that has been put in place in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. The report was released just a day after two rights groups launched a campaign for President Obama to pardon Mr Snowden. On 14 September, Amnesty International and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) launched their ‘Pardon Snowden’ campaign, urging President Obama to do so before he leaves office in January 2017. Amnesty has sated that no-one should be prosecuted for exposing human rights violations, which, it claimed, is what “indiscriminative mass surveillance of communications” amounts to. Meanwhile the ACLU, which acts as Snowden’s legal adviser, has called him “a great American who deserves clemency for his patriotic acts.” The White House has already rejected the possibility of a presidential pardon.

After a Series of Setbacks, IS Launches String of Deadly Attacks in Syria

In recent weeks, the so-called Islamic State (IS) group has suffered a series of setbacks in Syria, including the loss of access to the Syria-Turkey border and the killing of a number of top leaders. Analysts however warn that the terrorist group remains a potent force – a fact that has been demonstrated by a series of deadly attacks.

The growing pressure on IS, which includes Turkey’s decision to launch an operation against it in northern Syria, has seen the militant group lose ground at an unprecedented pace. IS however continues to maintain the capacity to obtain weapons, attract recruits and deploy fighters to carry out devastating attacks abroad.

On 4 September, the Turkish operation reclaimed the last stretch of the Syria-Turkey border from IS, effectively sealing off its self-styled “caliphate” in Syria and neighbouring Iraq and forcing the group to rely on smuggling networks instead. For IS, this was just the latest setback as the group is now under attack from Syrian and Iraqi troops, as well as Kurdish fighters, Syrian rebels, Turkish Forces, Russian warplanes and a US-led coalition. Experts believe that IS now controls just 20 percent of Iraq and 35 percent of Syria.  At the height of its expansion, after it seized Syria’s Palmyra in May 2015, IS controlled around 240,000 square kilometres (more than 92,000 square miles) in both countries – an area roughly the size of Britain. Today however experts indicate that this number has fallen by more than a third to around 150,000 square kilometres, adding that the population it now controls has also declined from some eight million people in mid-2015 to 4.5 million people today. In another major blow to the group’s mobility, in August, IS lost Jazirat al-Khaldiyeh, an area in Iraq’s western Anbar province that was a key crossroads. Meanwhile in Libya, IS is on the verge of losing its stronghold of Sirte. Along with the territorial losses, IS has been affected by a number of high-profile assassinations of its key leaders, which include senior commander Omar al-Shishani and spokesman and top strategist Abu Mohamed al-Adnani.

While these setbacks paint a picture that IS is on the decline, analysts are increasingly warning that the group is far from finished, noting that its focus may simply be shifting from territorial expansion to consolidation of population centres, such as Syria’s Raqa and Iraq’s Mosul, and to launching new attacks against civilians in the region and the West. IS has proven capable of adapting to the changing territory, and it likely that it will do the same this time around. The loss of the border with Turkey will hamper the group’s abilities to import new weapons and recruits, as well as to export resources such as oil. However this challenge is hardly a new one as pressure from Kurdish forces coupled with a Turkish crackdown on the border had already forced IS to mainly rely on smuggling networks. In regards to attaining weapons, IS has always relied to some degree on purchasing from corrupt individuals among its enemies, or capturing arms from defeated opponents.

French Prime Minister: France Foiling Terror Plots ‘Daily’

The French Prime Minister has disclosed that the country’s security services are foiling terror plots and dismantling militant networks “every day.”

Speaking to French media, Prime Minister Manuel Valls stated, “today the threat is at a maximum, and we are a target,” adding, “every day intelligence services, police, foil attacks, dismantle networks, track terrorists. There are about 15,000 people in France who are monitored, because these people are in the process of radicalization.” The Prime Minister warned that there will be further attacks.   Authorities had previously indicated that about 10,000 were identified as high-risk.

The report comes in the wake of two high-profile arrests. On 10 September, a boy of 15 as arrested at his home in Paris on suspicion of planning an attack over the weekend. Investigators have reported that he had been under surveillance since April and had been in touch with a French member of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, Rachid Kassim. Meanwhile on 4 September, a car loaded with gas cylinders was found near Notre Dame cathedral and jerry cans of diesel, leading to the discovery of a plot to attack a Paris railway station under the direction of IS. Seven people, including four women, have since been arrested. Prosecutors have since charged one of the women, Ornella G (29), with alleged involvement in a terrorist attack and attempted murder. On Friday, Paris prosecutor Francois Molins disclosed that Ornella G’s fingerprints had been found inside the car. She was known to intelligence agents as someone who was considering going to Syria. She was arrested on Tuesday in southern France along with her boyfriend, who has since been released. The three other women were questioned by police and are alleged to have been planning other “imminent and violent” attacks. One of the women stabbed a police officer during her arrest. It has been reported that French Islamist militant Kassim also guided one of the women. French newspaper Le Monde has reported that Kassim is currently in Syria and has used Telegram, the messaging service, to call for more attacks in France. Sources have disclosed that Kassim, 29, inspired two men who carried out an attack in July in a French church during which they slit the throat of the elderly priest.

While France has been under a state of emergency since IS attacks on Paris in November 2015, which killed 130 people, a recent commission of inquiry found that the state of emergency was only having a “limited impact” on improving security. The commission has also questioned the deployment of between 6,000 and 7,000 soldiers to protect schools, synagogues, department stores and other sensitive sites.

Security is becoming a central issue in the run-up to next year’s presidential election. Mr Valls however has stated that proposals by former French President Nicholas Sarkozy, to set up special courts and detention centres are not the answer. In August, Mr Sarkozy announced that he would run again for the presidency, stating, “every Frenchman suspected of being linked to terrorism, because he regularly consults a jihadist website, or his behaviour shows signs of radicalisations or because is in close contact with radicalized people, must be preventively placed in a detention centre.”