MS Risk Blog

UN Reports Thousands Yazidis Held Captive by IS

The United Nations has reported that thousands of Yazidis are being held captive by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group in Syria, where many are used for sexual slavery or forced to fight for the group. The report comes on the second anniversary of what investigators have termed a genocide.

A UN-appointed commission of independent war crimes investigators disclosed in June that IS was committing genocide against the Yazidis, which is a religious community comprising of 400,000 people in northern Iraq. It noted that the genocide began with an attack on their city of Sinjar on 3 August 2014. The UN further disclosed that most of the captives have been taken to neighbouring Syria, “where Yazidi women and girls continued to be sexually enslaved and Yazidi boys indoctrinated, trained and used in hostilities.” The UN has reported that around 3,200 Yazidi women and girls are being held captive and that thousands of men and boys remain missing.

The designation of genocide, rare under international law, would effectively mark the first recognized genocide carried out by non-state actors, rather than a state or paramilitaries acting on its behalf.

Italian Police Arrest Man Attempting to Join Islamist Group

Police in Italy arrested a Syrian man in the northern city of Genoa on 3 August on suspicion that he was planning to travel to his home country to join Islamist militants.

In a statement, police reported that their anti-terrorism unit had arrested an unemployed man, 23, who they said was planning to return to Syria to join the rebel group Nusra Front. He was arrested on suspicion of supporting international terrorism. Police have further disclosed that they are investigating the arrested man’s relationship with other foreigners in the Genoa area in order to determine whether they were trying to recruit fighters. They have disclosed that there is currently no indication that attacks in Italy were being planned.

The news comes just a day after Interior Minister Angelino Alfano disclosed that Italy had expelled a 26-year-old Pakistani man who officials have said supported the so-called Islamic State (IS) group and was planning to go to Syria to join Islamist militants.

The Syrian Islamist rebel group, which emerged at the beginning of the Syrian conflict, re-branded itself at the end of July this year as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham and cut ties with international jihadist network al-Qaeda.

Republicans Divided Further Over Trump Comments

After a week of shocking statements made by Republican candidate Donald Trump, new divisions have emerged within the United States Republican Party over its presidential candidate.

In the latest controversy to hit the Republican Party, Mr Trump has refused to support two senior figures within his own party. When asked in an interview for the Washington Post whether he would endorse House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senator John McCain, who are both up for re-election in November, Mr Trump replied that he was “just not quite there yet.” Both men publicly criticized him.

In recent days, Mr Trump has come under fire for criticizing the parents of a US Muslim soldier who was killed in Iraq. Speaking at the Democratic National Convention at the end of July, the soldier’s father, Khazr Khan, lambasted Mr Trump over his plan to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the US. Mr Trump responded by attacking the couple. Both Democratic and Republican leaders, as well as veterans’ group, were quick to criticise Mr Trump, with the incident leading US President Barack Obama to make his strongest comments yet on Mr Trump. On 2 August, President Obama stated that “the Republican nominee is unfit to serve as president and he keeps on proving it,” adding, “the notion that he would attack a Gold Star family that made such extraordinary sacrifices, means that he is woefully unprepared to do this job.” In response, Mr Trump dismissed President Obama’s time in the White House, calling it a “disaster,” and stating in a Fox News interview that “he’s been weak, he’s been ineffective…the worst president, maybe, in the history of our country.”

Mr Trump’s campaign has been marked by a series of controversial statements, which appear to be creating further divides within his own party. On 1 August, New York Representative Richard Hanna became the first Republican member of Congress to publicly say that he would vote for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. On Monday, Sally Bradshaw, a top adviser to former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, disclosed that Mr Trump’s candidacy had convinced her to leave the Republican Party. Just days later, Republican donor Meg Whitman also announced that she has endorsed his Mrs Clinton, stating that Mr Trump’s “demagoguery” had undermined the national fabric. Writing on Facebook, Ms Whitman stated that to vote Republican out of party loyalty alone “would be to endorse a candidacy that I believe has exploited anger, grievance, xenophobia and racial division,” adding that “Trump’s unsteady hand would endanger our prosperity and national security. His authoritarian character could threaten much more.” Meanwhile senior party activist Jan Halper-Hayes has told the BBC that she though Mr Trump was “psychologically unbalanced.” Dr Halper-Hayes, vice president of Republicans Overseas Worldwide, told the BBC’s Today Programme that she was “very concerned” about Mr Trump’s behaviour, however she did not go so far as to endorse Mrs Clinton. She further stated, “I think there is an element of him that truly is psychologically unbalanced, and I feel very guilty for saying this because I’m a Republican and I want the Republican ticket to win…But Donald is out of control right now and he’s not listening to anyone.” Dozens of senior Republican party figures have already stated that they will not vote for Mr Trump. They include the party’s’ 2012 nominee Mitt Romney and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.

In recent weeks, Mrs Clinton has been actively courting moderate Republicans. Furthermore the latest Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll suggests that she has extended her lead over Mr Trump to eight percentage points, from six points in the previous poll.

List of Republicans Not Voting for Mr Trump

• Barbara Bush, former first lady
• Jeb Bush, former Florida governor, 2016 presidential candidate
• William Cohen, former secretary of defense
• Jeff Flake, Arizona senator
• Lindsey Graham, South Carolina senator, 2016 presidential candidate
• Larry Hogan, Maryland governor
• John Kasich, Ohio governor, 2016 presidential candidate
• Mark Kirk, Illinois senator
• Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts governor, 2012 Republican presidential nominee
• Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Florida Congresswoman
• Ben Sasse, Nebraska senator

List of Republicans Voting for Mrs Clinton

• Richard Armitage, former deputy secretary of state
• Hank Paulson, former treasury secretary
• Brent Scowcroft, former national security adviser
• Richard Hanna, New York Congressman
• Meg Whitman, party donor and fundraiser

A Reminder of the Risks Faced by Canada

Unlike its southern neighbour and many of its European allies, Canada has been fortunate to escape a major terrorist attack in recent months. Canada had experienced 2 terrorist attacks in October 2014, but both were relatively limited in scope and resulted in only two deaths. However, on August 10th, the threat of terrorism was once again made apparent. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police issued an urgent memo warning of an imminent terrorist attack. They included a photo of a masked individual, but did not provide further details. It later emerged that the Greater Toronto Airports Authority, the Toronto Transit Commission and Metrolinx (an agency of the Ontario Government) were alerted that Union Station in downtown Toronto could be a possible target. According to August 11th media reports, the RCMP alert was based on information originally provided by the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

The seriousness of the alert was underlined by a deadly confrontation between police and an ISIS sympathizer in the afternoon of August 10th. According to senior RCMP officials, the individual was armed with 2 explosive devices, one of which he detonated during the confrontation with police. Police had originally intercepted the suspect after he entered a taxi outside his house. The suspect was ultimately shot and killed by a police counter-terrorism team. In a later news conference, the RCMP identified the man as 24 year-old Aaron Driver, the son of a Canadian military officer. According to some reports, Driver had requested to be driven to a mall in London, Ontario, near a Canadian military recruitment centre and a bus depot. It remains unclear what Driver’s ultimate intended target was.

In subsequent media reports, Aaron Driver has been described as someone both previously known to Canadian police and also emotionally vulnerable to radicalization. His family house burned down at age 4, his mother died of cancer in 1999 and his father moved the family frequently in his job with the Canadian Armed Forces. Driver reportedly converted to Islam at the age of 17 though the exact details of his radicalization remain unclear. He was first identified as a concern for Canadian intelligence officials after tweeting videos that advocated for ISIS’s ideology. The RCMP began an investigation around the autumn of 2014 that culminated in Driver’s arrest in Winnipeg in June 2015. Subsequent investigations revealed that his laptop contained instructions for building explosives. Driver was placed under a Peace Bond and moved in with his sister in the town of Strathroy in south-western Ontario.

Further details on the original alert and the fatal incident continue to emerge. The broader context will likely still take time to be established. However, it serves as an important reminder. Despite being under the strict conditions of a Peace Bond, Aaron Driver had the ability to build explosive devices, with the clear intent of endangering the public. As with several recent cases in France, Aaron Driver was clearly identified as an ISIS supporter. The August 10th incident clearly shows the limitations of a Peace Bond’s conditions. As with many countries, Canadian intelligence and law enforcement agencies face the difficult task of trying to identify when radical sympathizers have decided to escalate to acts of violence. In addition, it will be interesting to see if this incident has any impact on the political debate surrounding amendments to the 2015 Anti-Terrorism Act (Bill C-51). The current Liberal Government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had pledged to amend the legislation. So far, however, no significant changes have been made and a shift in public opinion could possibly shape the reform that eventually takes place.

Brazil Senate Votes in Favor of Impeachment Trial for Rousseff

The Brazilian Senate has voted to hold an impeachment trial of suspended President Dilma Rousseff, who has been accused of breaking the budget law.

Following a marathon debate, which ended early on Wednesday, the Senate voted 59 to 21 in favour of going ahead with the trial against Ms Rousseff, which is likely to be held at the end of this month. A two-thirds majority is needed in the final vote following the trial, which is likely to take place in the week after the Summer Olympics closing ceremony. Ms Rousseff was suspended in May by the Senate over alleged illegal accounting practices, which she says were common practice under previous administrations. She has been accused of spending money without congressional approval and taking out unauthorized loans from state banks to boost the national budget ahead of the 2014 election, when she was re-elected. Her allies in the Workers’ Party have pointed out that many of the members of the Brazilian Congress who have accused her are implicated in corruption cases themselves.

While Ms Rousseff is not facing corruption charges in Brazil’s wide-ranging scandal around the state oil company, Petrobras, she has been tainted by the Scandal, in which her Workers’ Party is accused of lining its campaign war chests with some of the missing money. If Ms Rousseff is removed from office, the interim president, her former running mate Michel Temer, will remain in the presidential chair until the next elections, due to take place in 2018. Ms Rousseff has accused him of orchestrating a political coup against her.