MS Risk Blog

Snowden Dismisses US Report into his Activities

Edward Snowden has dismissed a recently released report compiled by the US House of Representatives intelligence committee, which heavily criticised his activities.

The report, which took two years to compile, rejects Mr Snowden’s view of himself as a whistleblower, stating instead that he was a disgruntled employee whose actions did nothing more than help US enemies. Releasing a summary of its 36-page investigation into the case, the House committee disclosed that Mr Snowden had fallen out with his colleagues and lied about his background while at the NSA. It further states that most of the material that he had leaked related to military secrets that had nothing to do with Americans’ privacy but were to “protect American troops overseas and…provide vital defences against terrorists and nation-states.”

In a series of tweets, Mr Snowden dismissed the report’s findings, writing: “their report is so artlessly distorted that it would be amusing if it weren’t such a serious act of bad faith.”

Since 2013, Mr Snowden, a former National Security Agency (NSA) contactor, has been living in Russia. That year, he gained notoriety for releasing thousands of classified documents, which related mass phone and Internet surveillance that has been put in place in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. The report was released just a day after two rights groups launched a campaign for President Obama to pardon Mr Snowden. On 14 September, Amnesty International and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) launched their ‘Pardon Snowden’ campaign, urging President Obama to do so before he leaves office in January 2017. Amnesty has sated that no-one should be prosecuted for exposing human rights violations, which, it claimed, is what “indiscriminative mass surveillance of communications” amounts to. Meanwhile the ACLU, which acts as Snowden’s legal adviser, has called him “a great American who deserves clemency for his patriotic acts.” The White House has already rejected the possibility of a presidential pardon.

After a Series of Setbacks, IS Launches String of Deadly Attacks in Syria

In recent weeks, the so-called Islamic State (IS) group has suffered a series of setbacks in Syria, including the loss of access to the Syria-Turkey border and the killing of a number of top leaders. Analysts however warn that the terrorist group remains a potent force – a fact that has been demonstrated by a series of deadly attacks.

The growing pressure on IS, which includes Turkey’s decision to launch an operation against it in northern Syria, has seen the militant group lose ground at an unprecedented pace. IS however continues to maintain the capacity to obtain weapons, attract recruits and deploy fighters to carry out devastating attacks abroad.

On 4 September, the Turkish operation reclaimed the last stretch of the Syria-Turkey border from IS, effectively sealing off its self-styled “caliphate” in Syria and neighbouring Iraq and forcing the group to rely on smuggling networks instead. For IS, this was just the latest setback as the group is now under attack from Syrian and Iraqi troops, as well as Kurdish fighters, Syrian rebels, Turkish Forces, Russian warplanes and a US-led coalition. Experts believe that IS now controls just 20 percent of Iraq and 35 percent of Syria.  At the height of its expansion, after it seized Syria’s Palmyra in May 2015, IS controlled around 240,000 square kilometres (more than 92,000 square miles) in both countries – an area roughly the size of Britain. Today however experts indicate that this number has fallen by more than a third to around 150,000 square kilometres, adding that the population it now controls has also declined from some eight million people in mid-2015 to 4.5 million people today. In another major blow to the group’s mobility, in August, IS lost Jazirat al-Khaldiyeh, an area in Iraq’s western Anbar province that was a key crossroads. Meanwhile in Libya, IS is on the verge of losing its stronghold of Sirte. Along with the territorial losses, IS has been affected by a number of high-profile assassinations of its key leaders, which include senior commander Omar al-Shishani and spokesman and top strategist Abu Mohamed al-Adnani.

While these setbacks paint a picture that IS is on the decline, analysts are increasingly warning that the group is far from finished, noting that its focus may simply be shifting from territorial expansion to consolidation of population centres, such as Syria’s Raqa and Iraq’s Mosul, and to launching new attacks against civilians in the region and the West. IS has proven capable of adapting to the changing territory, and it likely that it will do the same this time around. The loss of the border with Turkey will hamper the group’s abilities to import new weapons and recruits, as well as to export resources such as oil. However this challenge is hardly a new one as pressure from Kurdish forces coupled with a Turkish crackdown on the border had already forced IS to mainly rely on smuggling networks. In regards to attaining weapons, IS has always relied to some degree on purchasing from corrupt individuals among its enemies, or capturing arms from defeated opponents.

French Prime Minister: France Foiling Terror Plots ‘Daily’

The French Prime Minister has disclosed that the country’s security services are foiling terror plots and dismantling militant networks “every day.”

Speaking to French media, Prime Minister Manuel Valls stated, “today the threat is at a maximum, and we are a target,” adding, “every day intelligence services, police, foil attacks, dismantle networks, track terrorists. There are about 15,000 people in France who are monitored, because these people are in the process of radicalization.” The Prime Minister warned that there will be further attacks.   Authorities had previously indicated that about 10,000 were identified as high-risk.

The report comes in the wake of two high-profile arrests. On 10 September, a boy of 15 as arrested at his home in Paris on suspicion of planning an attack over the weekend. Investigators have reported that he had been under surveillance since April and had been in touch with a French member of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, Rachid Kassim. Meanwhile on 4 September, a car loaded with gas cylinders was found near Notre Dame cathedral and jerry cans of diesel, leading to the discovery of a plot to attack a Paris railway station under the direction of IS. Seven people, including four women, have since been arrested. Prosecutors have since charged one of the women, Ornella G (29), with alleged involvement in a terrorist attack and attempted murder. On Friday, Paris prosecutor Francois Molins disclosed that Ornella G’s fingerprints had been found inside the car. She was known to intelligence agents as someone who was considering going to Syria. She was arrested on Tuesday in southern France along with her boyfriend, who has since been released. The three other women were questioned by police and are alleged to have been planning other “imminent and violent” attacks. One of the women stabbed a police officer during her arrest. It has been reported that French Islamist militant Kassim also guided one of the women. French newspaper Le Monde has reported that Kassim is currently in Syria and has used Telegram, the messaging service, to call for more attacks in France. Sources have disclosed that Kassim, 29, inspired two men who carried out an attack in July in a French church during which they slit the throat of the elderly priest.

While France has been under a state of emergency since IS attacks on Paris in November 2015, which killed 130 people, a recent commission of inquiry found that the state of emergency was only having a “limited impact” on improving security. The commission has also questioned the deployment of between 6,000 and 7,000 soldiers to protect schools, synagogues, department stores and other sensitive sites.

Security is becoming a central issue in the run-up to next year’s presidential election. Mr Valls however has stated that proposals by former French President Nicholas Sarkozy, to set up special courts and detention centres are not the answer. In August, Mr Sarkozy announced that he would run again for the presidency, stating, “every Frenchman suspected of being linked to terrorism, because he regularly consults a jihadist website, or his behaviour shows signs of radicalisations or because is in close contact with radicalized people, must be preventively placed in a detention centre.”

Ceasefire Begins in Syria

A nationwide seven-day ceasefire began in Syria on Monday 12 September after a weekend of air strikes, with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reporting that it was mostly holding across the country at the start of its second day on Tuesday.

The monitoring body has reported that some air attacks and shelling were reported in the first hours of the truce on Monday evening, adding that incidents were reported in areas including the north Hama countryside, East Ghouta and north of Aleppo. This however appeared to die down, with the Observatory reporting that it had not recorded a single civilian death from fighting in the fifteen hours since the ceasefire came into effect at 7 PM (1600 GMT) on Monday.

The deal was rached late on Friday (9 September) in Geneva, after months of talks between Russia and the United States. It is the second attempt this year to halt Syria’s five-year-old civil war. Russia is a major backer of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while the US supports some of the rebel groups that are fighting to topple him. Syrian state media has reported that President Bashar al-Assad has welcomed the deal. Under the plan, Syrian government forces will end combat missions in specified opposition-held areas. Russia and the US will then establish a joint centre to combat jihadist groups, including the so-called Islamic State (IS) group and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (known until recently as the Nusra Front). The 10-day truce is due to be followed by co-ordinated US-Russian air strikes against jihadist militants.

Ahead of the ceasefire, the Syrian government carried out heavy airstrikes in several rebel areas over the weekend, killing about 100 people. Syrian activists have reported that Russian warplanes have also been in action in the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo. On Monday, the first day of the Eid al-Adha Muslim holiday, fighting had raged on several key fronts before the ceasefire, including in Aleppo and the southern provinces of Quneitra. The Observatory has disclosed that at least 31 people were killed by airstrikes on rebel-held Idlib province and eastern Damascus, and by bombardement of villages in the northern Homs countryside and rocket attacks in the city of Aleppo on Monday, before the truce began.

While the ceasefire appears to be holding on its second day, it currently remains unclear whether rebel factions will abide by it to the end. The Free Syrian Army group has written to the United States administration stating that while it would “co-operate positively” with the ceasefire, it was concerned that it would benefit the government. Another rebel group, the influential hardline Islamist Ahrar al-Sham, has rejected the deal. In a video statement, the group’s second-in-command, Ali al-Omar, stated, “a rebellious people who have fought and suffered for six years cannot accept half-solutions.” However the group’s commander stopped short of explicitly stating that it would not abide by its terms. If the truce does prove to hold, jihadist groups like IS and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham will face directly face the power of Russian and US air forces; moderate rebels and civilians in the areas that they hold will no longer face the threat of indiscriminate air strikes, such as barrel-bombing, however the Syrian air force will not be grounded completely; aid deliveries will be allowed to areas that are currently under siege; and President Assad will be in a stronger position as the US and Russia engage two of his most effective military opponents while moderate rebels observe the truce with his forces.

The conflict in Syria, which began with an uprising against President Assad, has now been going on for five years and has claimed the lives of more than a quarter of a million people. Millions have fled abroad, many of them seeking asylum in the European Union, but nearly 18 million people remain in Syria, which ahs been carved up by fighting between government and rebel forces.

Syria’s History of Failed Agreements

• February 2012 – Syrian government “categorically rejects” an Arab League plan, which calls for a joint Arab-UN peacekeeping mission.
• June 2012/January 2014/January 2016 – Three failed UN-sponsored peace conferences in Geneva.
• September 2013 – Kerry and Lavrov negotiate a deal to strip the Syrian government of its chemical weapons in return for the US backing away from air strikes. Since then, the government has again and repeatedly been accused of using toxic chemicals against rebel-held areas.
• February 2016 – World powers agree in Munich on a nationwide “cessation of hostilities” in Syria excluding jihadist groups. There is no agreement on any joint US-Russian operations. The “pause” quickly unravels as President Assad promises to regain control of the whole country.
• March 2016 – Russian President Vladimir Putin declared “mission accomplished” in Syria and orders the removal of “main part” of Russia’s air army in Syria. Russian air strikes however have continued ever since.

UPDATE: Port of Ras Lanuf and Es Sider Ports

11 September, 2016

Forces loyal to Libya’s unrecognized Tobruk government have seized the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf ports in Libya’s oil crescent. Clashes are ongoing for control of Zueitina port.

On Sunday, a spokesman the Libyan National Army (LNA) announced that its fighters had wrested control of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf ports, and clashes were underway at Zueitina port. The statement was confirmed by Libya’s National Oil Corporation and the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA).

Mixed accounts suggest that the LNA has also taken control of Brega port, as well as the south and east gates of the city of Ajdabiya. However, these reports could not be triangulated.

The ports were under the control of the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG). In July, PFG leader Ibrahim Jathran struck a deal with the UN-backed government to end its blockade of the key ports, which were scheduled to resume operations after long stoppage.

The LNA is led by General Khalifa Haftar, a powerful and controversial military figure. Haftar has opposed the unity government since its establishment in December 2015, maintaining loyalty to the rival administration based in Tobruk. The eastern government has not recognised the GNA’s authority, and in August issued a vote of no confidence against the group. A spokesman for the Tobruk-based authority stated that the attack was intended to regain full control of the oil crescent from the GNA; they have previously threatened to try to sell crude themselves.

Together, Es Sider and Ras Lanuf ports account for more than half of Libya’s oil output, and their revival represents a vital source of revenue for the OPEC nation. It is expected that forces loyal to the GNA will attempt to recover these vital assets.

MS Risk has previously warned that control of key facilities in Libya could change hands with little or no notice. There remain several armed groups seeking control over Libyan oil assets, and it is likely that pro-GNA forces will seek to regain control of the ports. The government remains extremely unstable and the compounded situation in the nation is extremely fluid. As a result, the ports remain at a high risk for violent attack by opposing groups, which could target the infrastructure at the ports. MS Risk advises extreme caution to all vessels entering Libyan waters. Ship-owners and masters should correspond with local agents and stay abreast of the most recent information available.