MS Risk Blog

Reports Emerge of In-fighting in Boko Haram

Reports have emerged from the remote northeastern region of Nigeria that in-fighting has broke out within militant group Boko Haram after the so-called Islamic State (IS) group announced a new leader to its Nigerian affiliate last month.

In August, IS announced that Abu Musab al-Barnawi, the son of Boko Haram’s former founder Mohammed Yusuf, had replaced Abubakar Shekau at the head of the terrorist organization. Just days later however, Shekau insisted that he remained in charge of the Islamist group, whose insurgency has killed at least 20,000 people since 2009 and forced more than 2.6 million from their homes. In early September, sources in northeastern Nigeria reported that there have been deadly skirmishes between the two factions, even as the Nigerian military is seeking to finally rout the rebels in a sustained counter-offensive.

On 1 September, several fighters from Shekau’s camp were said to have been killed in two separate gunbattles that erupted with IS-backed Barnawi gunmen in the Monguno area of Borno state, near Lake Chad. While the Nigerian military has declined to comment on the reported in-fighting, one locate who lives in the area disclosed that “the Barnawi faction launched an offensive against the Shekau faction who were camped in the villages of Yele and Arafa,” adding, “in Yele, the assailants killed three people from the Shekau camp, injured one and took one with them, while several were killed in Arafa.” The attack prompted residents of Arafa to flee. The local also disclosed that fighters from Barnawi camp had the previous day attacked gunmen loyal to Shekau in Zuwa village in nearby Marte district, killing an unspecified number, adding that “the Barnawi fighters told villagers after each attack that they were fighting the other camp because they had derailed from the true jihad and were killing innocent people, looting their property and burning their homes.” News of the factional clashes has been slow to emerge because of the destroyed telecommunications infrastructure in northeastern Nigeria.

Since the death of Mohammed Yusuf in police custody in 2009, Shekau has led Boko Haram, waging a deadly, indiscriminate guerrilla war that has overwhelmingly targeted civilians in the three main northeastern states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe. Within these states, suicide bombers have repeatedly targeted mosques, churches, markets and bus stations while hit-and-run attacks have destroyed remote villages and have killed and maimed thousands of residents. Thousands of people, many of them women and young girls, have been kidnapped, with the widely most known hostage taking occurring in April 2014, when more than 200 schoolgirls were taken from the northeastern town of Chibok in an attack that sparked international outrage. In many videos and audio recordings that have been released over the years, Shekau has justified the attacks against the secular state, those who support it and anyone who does not share his radical interpretation of Islam. In March 2015, he pledged allegiance to IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and changed the group’s name to Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). However over the past year, there have been growing tensions within the group, and experts have suggested that the indiscriminate killings of civilians, coupled with Shekau’s “dictatorial” style, including secret killings of dissenting commanders, have caused a rift. This was evident shortly after his nomination, with Barnawi making a point of critiquing Shekau’s leadership and lambasting him for targeting ordinary Muslims.

France Warns that IS Militants May Flee Libya Towards Egypt and Tunisia

France warned in early September that so-called Islamic State (IS) group fighters could flee towards Egypt and Tunisia after being flushed from their former Libyan stronghold of Sirte.

Speaking on 5 September during a defense conference in Paris, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned that “we should begin to look seriously at the question of the spread of the terrorists once Sirte…(is) emptied of the terrorists.” He further disclosed that “they don’t disappear. There’s a new risk that appears,” adding, “indirectly this will pose new risks for Tunisia and Egypt.” He also indicated that it was a “shame, perhaps political reasons prevent it, that all the neighbouring states of Libya don’t meet” over the issue.

Le Drian’s Tunisian counterpart, Farhat Horchani, has also called for effective regional coordination. Horchani, who attended the same defense conference in Paris, stated, “we have a large number of foreign fighters who arrived from Sirte, or from Syria. I can see no strategy, no cooperation between the states,” to deal with the problem.”

Forces loyal to Libya’s UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), which has been backed by weeks of US air strikes, have recaptured nearly all of what had been the jihadists’ main stronghold in the North African country. On 3 September, pro-GNA forces launched a new attack against IS in Sirte, reporting the following day that it could take several days to gain full control of the city.

IS took advantage of the chaos in oil-rich Libya in the wake of the 2011 uprising. They went on to seize Sirte in June 2015, which sparked fears that the jihadists would use it as a springboard for attacks on Europe. While the loss of Sirte would be a reversal for IS, French and US figures indicate that there are between 5,000 and 7,000 jihadists that remain in Libya, with one French security source disclosing that many “have evaporated in th south of he country.”

Suspect in New York City and New Jersey Bombings Arrested

The New York City metropolitan area has long been on high alert for potential terrorist threats. These concerns have further increased over the past several days after terrorist attacks in Manhattan and New Jersey. The situation began on September 17 when an explosion occurred around 9:30am in Seaside Park, New Jersey. The bomb was planted near the route for the Seaside Semper Five run event, an event intended to help U.S. military veterans. The explosion did not cause any injury due to the race start being postponed after a suspicious package was noticed. An extensive search by police discovered two other pipe bomb-like explosives near the race route. Both devices failed to explode, however the race was cancelled due to security concerns. At around 8pm on September 18, 2 homeless men found a suspicious package in a garbage container near Elizabeth train station in Elizabeth, New Jersey. The men contacted local police, who called in the Federal Bureau of Investigation and New Jersey State Police. Police robots opened the package and discovered 2 pipe bombs, 1 of which exploded destroying the closest robot. The second pipe bomb did not explode and the police disabled it later that evening.

The New York City bombing occurred on the evening of September 17 in Manhattan’s Chelsea neighbourhood at around 8:30pm. In that attack, 29 people were injured, with 24 of those requiring hospitalization. Several hours later and only 4 blocks away, a second device was discovered by New York State Police. A New York Police Department robot later moved the device to an NYPD facility where it was detonated in a controlled explosion. No one was injured by the second device in Manhattan.

 On the evening of September 17, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced that the Manhattan explosion was intentional. Later reports made it clear that the explosion was being classified as a terrorist attack. Law enforcement investigators later found CCTV footage that showed a bearded man planting both improvised explosive devices in Manhattan’s Chelsea neighbourhood. On September 19, the FBI announced that the man in the footage had been identified as a 28 year-old naturalized U.S. citizen (originally born in Afghanistan) named Ahmad Khan Rahami. The FBI revealed that Rahami was linked with all the devices found in New York City and New Jersey. He had reportedly worked and lived in Elizabeth, New Jersey. Shortly after the announcement, New York City’s Mayor issued a mass emergency alert to cellphone users in New York City and surrounding areas. Rahami was captured in Linden, New Jersey have a multi-agency police operation. During the exchange of gunfire, Rahami was shot in the shoulder and one police offer received a hand injury. Rahami’s exact motivations have not been publically released, but he is now considered the only suspect in the bombings. Rahami was hospitalized and has since been charged with attempted murder and possession of an illegal firearm.

Reflecting the heightened worries about terrorism, New York City has increased its security precautions. 1000 National Guardsmen and New York State Police troopers would be deployed in public areas throughout the city to encourage public confidence. The mass text message alert issued by NYC’s mayor also stands as one of the largest public safety alerts issued through the United States emergency wireless broadcasting system. A great deal of information remains to be publicly released, including whether other people had knowledge of the plot. This includes conflicting reports regarding 5 people arrested by the NYPD on the Belt Parkway in Brooklyn on September 18. None of those individuals have yet be formally charged.

National Oil Corporation suspends operations at Ras Lanuf Port

National Oil Corporation suspends operations at Ras Lanuf Port

19 September- Over the weekend, fighting resumed for control of key ports in Libya’s oil crescent. Libyan officials delayed a shipment of petroleum at the newly reopened ports.

Last week, forces from Libyan National Army, loyal to the Eastern government, captured Ras Lanuf and Es Sider ports from the Petroleum Facilities Guard. The PFG briefly regained control of the ports, but were forced out again amid renewed fighting. After clashes on Sunday, the ports are back in the control of the PFG.

The NOC suspended operations at Ras Lanuf port as a tanker was loading a shipment of oil to be transported to Italy. The tanker would have been the first to ship from the port since 2014, but withdrew to a safe distance from the port.

Ras Lanuf port itself has not been affected by the fighting so far, but a previously damaged oil storage tank at nearby Es Sider port was set on fire. Firefighting teams were expected to control the blaze rapidly.

THE SITUATION IN LIBYA REMAINS EXTREMELY FLUID. Control of key facilities in Libya have, and could again, change hands with little or no notice. The Eastern government, supported by recently promoted Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and the LNA, does not acknowledge the legitimacy of the UN- backed government. The situation between the opposing factions remains extremely unstable. As a result, ports, infrastructure, and other valuable assets remain at a high risk for violent attack by opposing groups.

MS Risk continues to advise extreme caution to all vessels entering Libyan waters. Ship-owners and masters should correspond with local agents and stay abreast of the most recent information available. 

Cluster Bombs Killed over 400 People in 2015

According to a new report compiled by a Cluster Munitions Coalition, more than 400 people were killed by cluster bombs in 2015, with most of the deaths being reported in Ukraine, Syria and Yemen.

Cluster bombs scatter explosives a wide area and often fail to detonate on impact. The report indicates that 248 deaths were recorded in Syria, followed by Yemen (104); and Ukraine (19). Civilians made u 97% of the death toll while more than a third of the casualties recorded from 2010 – 2015 have been children, who are at a particular risk. The report indicates that the weapon is not banned in all three of these countries, adding that they are not signatories of the Convention on Cluster Munitions, which prohibits the use, stockpiling, production and transfer of the weapons.

The Syrian military has denied possessing or using cluster munitions and in December 2015, the Russian Defense Ministry, which supports the Syrian government, also insisted that “Russian aviation does not use (cluster munitions).” The report however suggests that despite Russia’s denial, “there is compelling evidence that it is using them” in Syria.