MS Risk Blog

Columbia Referendum: Voters Reject FARC Peace Agreement

On 3 October, voters in Colombia shockingly rejected a landmark peace agreement with FARC rebels. In the shock referendum result, 50.2% voted against the deal, which was signed last week by President Juan Manuel Santos and FARC leader Timoleon Jimenez after nearly four years of negotiations. The deal needed to be ratified by Colombians in order for it to come into force.

Colombians were asked to endorse or reject the peace agreement in a popular vote that took place on Sunday 2 October. The “yes” campaign had the backing not just of President Santos, but also of a wide array of politicians both within Colombia, and abroad, including United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. There was also a vocal campaign for a “no” vote, which was led by former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe. Polls conducted ahead of Sunday’s vote suggested a comfortable wind for the “yes” campaign, however in a surprise result, 50.2% of voters rejected the agreement compared with 49.8% who voted for it. The difference with 98.98% of the votes counted was less than 54,000 votes out of almost thirteen million ballots. Turnout however was low, with fewer than 38% of voters casting their votes.

Country Divided

The country was divided regionally, with most of the outlying provinces voting in favor of the agreement and those nearer the capital and inland voting against it. In the province of Choco, which has been one of the hardest hit by the conflict, 80% of voters backed the deal. In the town of Bojaya, where at least 119 people were killed when a church was hit by FARC mortar bombs, 96% of residents voted “yes.” The capital, Bogota, also voted “yes” with 56%. In the eastern region of the country in the province of Vaupes, 78% voted in favor of the deal however in the eastern province of Casanare, 71.1% voted against it. It is an area where farmers and landowners have for years been extorted by the FARC and other illegal groups. In Antioquia, the home state of ex-President Uribe, 62% also rejected the deal.

Most of those who voted “no” have disclosed that they thought that the peace agreement was letting the rebels “get away with murder.” Under the agreement, special courts would have been created in order to try crimes that were committed during the conflict. Those who confessed to their crimes would have been given more lenient sentences and would have avoided serving any time in conventional prisons. For many Colombians, this was one step too far. Many also balked at the government’s plan to pay demobilized FARC rebels a monthly stipend and to offer those wanting to start a business financial help. “No” voters indicated that this amounted to a reward for criminal behaviour while honest citizens were left to struggle financially. Many also stated that they simply did not trust the rebels to kept their promise to lay down arms for good, pointing to previous failed peace negotiations when the rebels took advantage of a lull in fighting to regroup and rearm as evidence that the FARC had broken their word before. Others still were unhappy that under the agreement, the FARC would be guaranteed ten seats in the Colombian Congress in the elections in 2018 and 2022. They said that this would give the newly created party an unfair advantage.

What Does the “No” Campaign Want?

The main proponent of the vote against the agreement was former President Alvaro Uribe. Following the vote, Mr Uribe insisted that he was not opposed to peace however that he wanted to renegotiate some of the agreement, which he said needed “corrections.” Amongst the “corrections” he has demanded are:

• That those found guilty of crimes be barred from running for public office
• That FARC leaders serve time in prison for crimes committed
• That the FARC use their illicit gains to pay their victims compensation
• That no changes be made to the Colombian constitution

Addressing the nation after the surprise election result, President Santos disclosed that he accepted the result, noting however that he would continue working to achieve peace. He further indicated that the bilateral ceasefire between government forces and the FARC would remain in place. He has also told government negotiators to travel to Cuba in order to consult FARC leaders on the next move. Meanwhile the FARC leader has disclosed that the rebels remain committed to securing an end to the conflict, stating, “the FARC reiterates its disposition to use only words as a weapon to build toward the future

EU Launches Programme To Help Refugees in Turkey

The European Union (EU) on 26 September launched a programme to issue monthly electronic cash grants to benefit a million refugees in Turkey. The programme is pat of a deal under which Ankara will curb the numbers trying to reach Europe.

According to officials, the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) will give refugees pre-paid cash cards for food, housing, schooling or medical expenses in Turkey. Speaking at a news conference, Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Management Christos Stylianides disclosed “today we launch the biggest and largest humanitarian project the EU had ever supported. It will provide a basic source of income for one million Syrian refugees.” Stylianides further disclosed that “the ESSN is perfect proof of the EU’s commitment to tackle the challenge posed by the refugee crisis. It’s a clear example of the strong partnership of the EU and Turkey in finding together new, innovative ways to address one of the most important humanitarian challenges of our times.”

Earlier this year, EU member states approved a fund of 3 billion euros to help Turkey improve the living conditions for some 3 million Syrian migrants on its territory. The ESSN, which is part of that agreement, will be implemented by the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Turkish Red Crescent, in collaboration with the Turkish Ministry of Family and Social Policy and the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency.   The EU is also funding other humanitarian projects in the country, however Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has accused the bloc of now following through on its financial pledges.

More than a million migrants entered the EU after crossing from Turkey to Greece by boat in 2015. Since Turkey agreed to prevent people from setting sail from its shores earlier this year, the numbers taking that route have fallen dramatically.

Philippines President Orders Military to ‘Wipe Out’ Abu Sayyaf

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has ordered the country’s military to go “full force” to wipe out the Islamic State (IS)-linked Abu Sayyaf terrorist group.

While President Duterte, who swept into office in May on a pledge to eliminate criminals, had initially called on the Abu Sayyaf Group to lay down their arms, he quickly adopted a tough stance when his overtures were rejected. Sources have reported that an additional 2500-strong force is being deployed to back up thousands of soldiers who are already stationed on the islands of Jolo and Sulu.

Abu Sayyaf was founded in the early 1990’s to fight for an independent Islamic state in the southern Philippines, which is a Catholic-majority nation. For years, the militant group has eluded Philippines security forces, which had the support of US military logistics, as its militants carried out some of the country’s worst terrorist attacks, including a ferry bombing in 2014 that killed at least 100 people. The militants, who are believed to number around 500, have also kidnapped dozens of foreigners and Filipinos for ransom, in a business that has netted them millions of dollars, which they then use to carry out their operations. The militants are believed to be currently holding at least 23 hostages, including a Dutch birdwatcher who was kidnapped in 2012 and a Norwegian man who was abducted from a beach resort last year. Abu Sayyaf militants also beheaded two Canadian hostages this year who had been held for several months. Australian adventurer Warren Rodwell was held by the group for fifteen months after he was kidnapped from his home in a coastal town on 2011. A ransom of about US $100,000 was secured for his release.

While last year, Abu Sayyaf claimed allegiance to IS, analysts believe that the group has been mainly focused on kidnappings. Southeast Asian leaders however have expressed their concerns that regional militants, who have been fighting alongside IS fighters in Syria and Iraq, may return and seek sanctuary amongst Abu Sayyaf – further bolstering its strength with hardened fighters.

WHO: Yellow Fever Outbreak in Africa not an International Health Emergency

The World Health Organization reported late last month that the ongoing yellow fever outbreak in Africa is serious but that it does not warrant being declared an international health emergency.

Since it was first identified in Angola in December 2015, yellow fever has spread to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and is believed to have sickened more than 6,300 people and killed about 400, despite millions of doses of vaccine having been sent repeatedly to Angola. In August, some 7.7 million people were vaccinated in a major campaign that was launched in the “high risk” DRC capital Kinshasa, along with 1.5 million in other parts of the country. In Angola, 2.4 million people have been vaccinated, making 11.6 million in all.

The campaigns have depleted the global stockpile of 6 million yellow fever vaccine doses twice this year already, which according to the WHO is unprecedented. The vaccine shortage has now become so acute that officials have begun diluting the vaccine by 80 percent in a bid to stretch the supply. The four major manufacturers who supply the global stockpile have worked around the clock in order to replenish the stockpile.

Last month, the UN health agency convened an emergency committee of experts to consider the outbreak’s status, stating afterwards that the increase of the mosquito-spread haemorrhagic fever appears to have slowed. The WHO further reported that since 12 July there have been no new infections reported in what is an “extremely positive” trend. The upcoming rainy season has raised fears of further spread of the worst outbreak in decades. It also noted that intense population movements across the border to neighbouring Republic of Congo pose a risk of further spread, adding that the Brazzaville government should consider a “pre-emptive vaccination campaign in high-risk areas,” noting that the virus was moving towards Central and Eastern Africa.

US Kills Number of IS ‘Leaders’ In Iraq

A United States military spokesman reported on 29 September that in the last thirty days, air strikes by the United States and it s allies have killed eighteen Islamic State (IS) “leaders,” adding that thirteen of them were killed in Mosul, the militant group’s de facto Iraqi capital.

Colonel John Dorrian, a spokesman for US forces in Iraq and Syria, told a Pentagon briefing that many of those targeted where military commanders, propagandists and those facilitating foreign recruits into territory controlled by Islamic state, which has sympathizers worldwide. Dorrian further disclosed that “by taking these individuals off the battlefield, it creates some really disruptive effects to enemy command and control. He added that there are now between 3,000 and 4,500 IS fighters left in Mosul, noting that while new fighters are not able to enter the city in large convoys, they continue to move in small formations.

Earlier this week, the Pentagon announced that the US would deploy around 600 new troops to Iraq in order to assist Iraqi forces in the battle to retake Mosul from IS militants, who control parts of Iraq and neighbouring Syria.  The US currently has 4,565 troops in Iraq as part of a US-led coalition that is providing extensive air support, training and advise to the Iraqi military, which collapsed in 2014 in the face of Islamic State’s territorial gains and lightning advance towards the capital, Baghdad.