MS Risk Blog

US Presidential Election: What to Expect on Polling Day

Today, Americans will go to the polls to elect the 45^th President of the United States – Democratic Presidential Nominee Hillary Clinton or Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump.

Voting begins at 6 AM on the day and the first polls will close at midnight UK time (00:00 GMT; 19:00 EST). The first projections from states will follow shortly afterwards based on exit polls. The two candidates need to win 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes in order to win the White House.

The earliest time that the election could be “called” for one of the candidates by US TV networks is likely to be around 4 AM UK time – both the 2008 and 2012 elections were called for Barack Obama at around that time. Once the election has been called, the defeated candidate will call the victor in order to concede the presidential race, before both make speeches during the night to their supporters. There is however a possibility that the result could still not be known at the end of election day, as occurred during the 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore. If the result is too close to call without counting every vote, or if legal battles over election procedures are taking place, it could delay the result or force a recount. In the even that neither candidate has a majority of Electoral College votes, the result would be sent to the House of Representatives. Delegations from each state would then cast one vote, with the candidate winning the most states declared the winner. This has occurred on two occasions

• 1801 – Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr failed to win a majority of Electoral College votes. After 36 successive votes in the House, Mr Jefferson was declared the winner.
• 1824 – John Quincy Adams beat Andrew Jackson on the first ballot in the House, despite losing the popular vote.

Here is a list of the timings for polls closing on election day (UK time):

Midnight

• Georgia – 16 votes
• Indiana – 11 votes
• Kentucky – 8 votes
• South Carolina – 9 votes
• Vermont – 3 votes
• Virginia – 13 votes

0:30 AM

• North Carolina – 15 votes
• Ohio – 18 votes
• West Virginia – 5 votes

1 AM

• Alabama – 9 votes
• Connecticut – 7 votes
• Delaware – 3 votes
• District of Columbia – 3 votes
• Florida – 29 votes
• Illinois – 20 votes
• Maine – 4 votes
• Maryland – 10 votes
• Massachusetts – 11 votes
• Mississippi – 6 votes
• Missouri – 10 votes
• New Hampshire – 4 votes
• New Jersey – 14 votes
• Oklahoma – 7 votes
• Pennsylvania – 20 votes
• Rhode Island – 4 votes
• Tennessee – 11 votes

1:30 AM

• Arkansas – 6 votes

2 AM

• Arizona – 11 votes
• Colorado – 9 votes
• Kansas – 6 votes
• Louisiana – 8 votes
• Michigan – 16 votes
• Minnesota – 10 votes
• Nebraska – 5 votes
• New York – 29 votes
• North Dakota – 3 votes
• South Dakota – 3 votes
• Texas – 38 votes
• Wisconsin – 10 votes
• Wyoming – 3 votes

3 AM

• Iowa – 6 votes
• Montana – 3 votes
• Nevada – 6 votes
• Utah – 6 votes

 4 AM

• California – 55 votes
• Hawaii – 4 votes
• Idaho – 4 votes
• Oregon – 7 votes
• Washington – 12 votes

6 AM

• Alaska – 3 votes

Officials Reveal al-Qaeda Terror Plot Targeting US Presidential Election

Intelligence officials warned on 4 November that al-Qaeda may be planning terror attacks in several states around the US presidential election, which is set to take place on 8 November.

The Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) and the New York Police Department (NYPD) have disclosed that they are taking the threat seriously, adding that they are assessing the credibility of a possible attack on the eve of Election Day. Officials have further disclosed that counter-terrorism investigators are viewing the information that the terror group is planning to carry out attacks in New York, Texas and Virginia, however there have been no specific locations in these states that have been mentioned. In a statement, NYPD spokesman disclosed that the information “lacks specificity.” Steve Coleman also indicated that the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which operates airports, tunnels and bridges around New York City, had been alerted, adding “we are continuing with the high level of patrols at all of our facilities that we have had in place for some time now.”

The threat comes just four days before polls officially open in the US. Earlier last week, an alert warned local police of “polling places” being seen as “attractive targets” for “lone wolf” attacks. Officials however have disclosed that they regularly assess all possible security threats ahead of major events, with a senior FBI official telling CBS news that “the counter-terrorism and homeland security communities remain vigilant and well-postured to defend against attacks here in the United States…The FBI, working with our federal, state and local counterparts, shares and assesses intelligence on a daily basis and will continue to work closely with law enforcement and intelligence community partners to identify and disrupt any potential threat to public safety.”

US Election 2016: How Does the US Presidential Election Work?

In January 2017, after a drawn out and expensive campaign, the United States will have a new leader. US presidential elections mean that citizens are not only choosing a head of state, but also a head of government and a commander-in-chief of the largest military on the planet. So how does the US Presidential election work?

Who Can Be President?

Technically, to run for president, you only need to be “a natural born” US citizen, at least 35 year old and have been a resident for fourteen years. However in reality, every president since 1933 has been a governor, senator or a five-star military general. During the 2016 election period, at one point there were ten governors or former governors and ten who are or were senators. One person is nominated to represent the Republican and Democratic parties in the presidential election.

Who Gets to be the Presidential Pick for Each Party?

Beginning in February of the year of the election, a series of elections are held in every state and overseas territory. These elections determine who becomes each party’s official presidential candidate. The winner of each election collects a number of “delegates,” which are party members who have the power to vote for that candidate at the party conventions that are held in July, where candidates are formally confirmed. The more state contests a candidate winds, the more delegates will be pledged to support them at the convention.

This year, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump were the clear winners and were officially nominated at their party’s conventions in July. They also officially unveiled their vice-president picks – Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia for Mrs Clinton and Indiana Governor Mike Pence for the Republicans.

Key Dates Between Now and Election

While the election campaign feels long, in reality it has only begun. Once the candidates have been confirmed at the party conventions in July, the real campaign begins, with each candidate travelling across the country to make their case.

In the last six weeks before the November election, there are three televised presidential debates:

• 26 September in Hempstead, New York
• 4 October in Farmville, Virginia (Vice-Presidential Debate)
• 9 October in St Louis, Missouri
• 19 October in Las Vegas, Nevada

The election will take place on Tuesday, 8 November.

How does the Vote in November Work?

The candidate with the most votes in each state becomes the candidate which that stat supports for president. It all comes down to a system known as the electoral college, which is a group of people who choose the winner – 538 of them. However just half of that number – 270 – is needed in order to make a president. Furthermore, not all states are equal. For example, California has more than ten times the population of Connecticut and therefore they do not get an equal say. Each state has a certain number of these “electors,” based on their population in the most recent census. That number is the same number of districts in a state, plus two senators. When citizens vote for their preferred candidate, they are actually voting for the electors, some of which are pledged to one candidate, and some for another. In almost every state, with the exception of Nebraska and Maine, the winner takes all. Therefore the person who wins the most electors in New York, for example, will get all 29 of New York’s electoral votes. As a result, the swing states are often the ones that matter most.

What are Swing States?

Some states are known as “swing states,” which means that they could go either way. Florida in particular, with 29 votes, famously decided during the 2000 election in favor of Republican George W. Bush, who lost the popular vote nationally but, after a Supreme Court case, won the electoral college. Other swing states include: Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.

When Does the new President Begin Work?

In the days and weeks after the election the victor will assemble a cabinet and will begin crafting a more thorough police agenda. Under the US constitution, the president is inaugurated on 20 January of the year following the election.

France Says It is Ready to keep Troops in West Africa for Indefinite Period

This month, France appeared to accept that it would need to keep thousands of troops in Africa’s Sahel region for an indefinite period because of the ongoing instability and preponderance of Islamist militants.

Speaking to lawmakers, French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault sought to reassure regional allies that Paris would not abandon them despite pressure on its military, which has not only seen it increase its operating in the Middle East, but also on home soli in the wake of a series of Islamist attacks in 2015 and this year. Speaking at a parliamentary debate on his country’s overseas operations, Ayrault disclosed that “France remains committed as long as the jihadist threat continues to weigh on the future of these countries,” adding, “what message would we be sending if we envisaged a reduction of our effort? We do not have the right to abandon our African brothers at the exact moment when they need us the most to consolidate the fragile balances.”

After deploying troops to Mali, France has since spread some 4,000 soldiers across the West African region in a bid to hunt down Islamists. United Nations peacekeepers have also been deployed to ensure Mali’s stability however the UN’s forces have lacked equipment and resources making a political settlement between Tuaregs and the Malian government increasingly fragile and paving the way for Islamists and traffickers to exploit a void in the northern region of the country. According to Ayrault, “we know it will be long and difficult (because) the national reconciliation process is taking time to come into effect, securing the north is slow and terrorist groups continue to destabilize the region by carrying out attacks on Mali’s borders at the entrances to other countries like Niger and Ivory Coast.”

At the end of this month, France will seek to discuss Mali when it hosts a ministerial meeting on UN peacekeeping operations in French-speaking countries to see how to increase and improve their efficiency.

The region, which spans from Mauritania in the west to Sudan in the east, is host to a number of jihadist groups and is seen as being vulnerable to further attacks after strikes on soft targets in Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast earlier this year. The region’s security concerns have further been highlighted by a recent spike in violence in northern Mali, where France intervened three years ago in a bid to drive out al-Qaeda-linked militants who took control of a rebellion in 2012 by ethnic Tuaregs and attempted to take control of the central government in Bamako. More recently, insecurity in northern Mali seems too have spread in the region, particularly into neighbouring Niger where a string of incidents this month, including the kidnapping of a US NGO worker, has prompted officials across the region to enhance security measures.

Colombia Delays Peace Talks with ELN

Colombia has announced that it is delaying peace talks with Marxist National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels until they free a politician who has been held captive for six months. President Juan Manuel Santos made the announcement on 27 October as he struggles to salvage a peace agreement with the FARC that was rejected in a referendum.

Reiterating a condition he set months ago, President Santos disclosed that the ELN, which is the country’s second-biggest insurgent group, must release Odin Sanchez to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) before talks can begin in Ecuador. The opening ceremony had been scheduled to take place in Ecuador’s capital on 27 October at 6 PM ED (2200 GMT) however it was cancelled at the last minute.

Furthermore, recent remarks by ELN members have posed a setback to the talks. Member of the ELN Negotiating Team Pablo Beltran has disclosed that the group has the right to “deprive liberty” from people in the armed conflict in Colombia, effectively meaning that the group claims that kidnapping is their legal right. Statements by Pablo Beltran have also caused problems for the negotiations to release Mr Sanchez.

The 2,000-strong ELN, which is considered a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union (EU), had kidnapped hundreds of people during its 52-year insurgency in order to raise funds and use hostages as bargaining ships with the Colombian government.

The talks with the ELN are likely to mirror those, which were held with the FARC. The peace agreement was signed on 26 September with the FARC and while it was internationally lauded, it was criticised by many in Colombia for being too lenient on the rebels. Former President Alvaro Uribe is now leading the effort to change the agreement that would have given the FARC guaranteed congressional seats and immunity from traditional jail sentences.