MS Risk Blog

Déjà vu as DRC President Kabila Clings to Power

During a speech in April 1990, then Zaire President Mobuto Sese Seko promised his people an end to one-party rule and a future without the many they knew as the Guide. However in the seven years that would follow, President Seko acted on few of his promises, and Zaire eventually sank into chaos, leading to his overthrow in 1997. In the years since, a number of conflicts have resulted in the death of millions of people, and in 2016, a quarter of a century after President Seko’s speech, déjà vu appears to have crept in as the future of democracy is questioned in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

On 15 October, the DRC’s ruling coalition and other smaller parties agreed to delay next months’ election to April 2018, in a move that is likely to anger opposition groups who have accused President Joseph Kabila of trying to cling onto power. According to one organization involved in the discussions, the Union for the Congolese Nation, the parties had agreed in talks on Saturday to give more time for voter registration and to keep President Kabila in office until the delayed vote. A statement has indicated that delegates at the talks would likely ratify the decision on 17 October. UNC president Vital Kamerhe is widely expected to become prime minister as part of the power-sharing government ushered in under the talks. While the DRC’s main opposition bloc has yet to comment on the move, it has already called for a general strike to take place on 19 October in order to press President Kabila to leave at the end of his mandate in December.

Last month, protests against President Kabila, 45, led to clashes with security forces ,with the United Nations reporting that at least fifty people were killed in the capital Kinshasa.

President Kabila has stated that he will respect the constitution, however he has yet to rule out attempting to change the country’s laws in order to enable him to run for a new term in office. Last year, the presidents of neighbouring Rwanda and the Republic of Congo changed their constitutions, effectively allowing themselves to stand for a third term. Opponents of President Kabila now say that they fear that he will do the same.

Colombian Government and FARC Willing to Hear Plans to Change Peace Agreement

The Colombian government and Marxist FARC rebels have disclosed that they are willing to listen to proposals to alter their peace accords after a negotiated agreement was unexpectedly rejected during a referendum, effectively leaving the country in limbo.

In a joint statement from Havana, Cuba, negotiators from the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) disclosed that after four years of talks, they have the “necessary reforms and measures to achieve peace and guarantee an end to the conflict.” The two sides however noted that they recognized that the accord was rejected in a 2 October referendum, adding that they were willing to listen to proposed adjustments. In the statement, which was ready by lead government negotiator Humberto de la Calle, both sides disclosed that “it’s right that we continue listening to different sectors of society in a quick and efficient manner to understand their concerns and promptly find a solution.” The statement however did not provide details of the next steps.

In a vote that confounded opinion polls and was a disaster for President Santos, Colombians narrowly rebuffed the pact as to lenient on the rebels.

In Bogota, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos and representatives have been listening to the views of those who voted against the deal, led by former President Alvaro Uribe. Those will be presented by government negotiations at some point to the FARC for discussion. Uribe opposed the peace talks from the beginning, later stating that the deal gave too many concessions to the rebels. He spearheaded the “no” campaign, urging Colombians to reject the accord, which would have given the FARC guaranteed congressional seats and immunity from traditional jail sentences. His side won by half a percentage point.

The statement from the two sides comes just hours after President Santos was awarded the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to end the 52-year-old war with the FAR. The Norwegian Nobel Committee disclosed that the Colombian leader had brought one of the longest civil wars in modern history closer to a peaceful solution, noting however that the process could still collapse given the results of the referendum.

Colombia to Begin Peace Talks with ELN Rebels on 27 October

The Colombian government and the second-largest rebel group announced earlier this month that they will begin formal peace talks on 27 October in what is likely to be a boost for President Juan Manuel Santos in the wake of the rejection of his deal with the larger FARC guerrilla group.

According to an agreement signed in Caracas by both sides under the auspices of Venezuela’s government, the negotiations with the 2,000-strong National Liberation Army (ELN) will begin in Ecuador. In a speech shortly after the announcement, President Santos disclosed that “we are a special nation that grows despite adversities,” adding, “peace wont slip through out fingers. On the contrary, it will be stronger, and now that we will advance with the ELN, it will be complete.”

At war for five decades, after being founded by radical Catholic priests and inspired by Cuba’s revolution, the ELN has been in on-an-off closed-door talks with the Colombian government since January 2014, with talks focusing on how the two sides would conduct peace negotiations and what would be on the table. The ELN has remained active during this time, kidnapping and bombing oil installations. However in recent months, it has released some captives and with the announcement of the agreement, the ELN has stated that it would begin to release two remaining hostages by 27 October. The ELN has sought peace before, holding talks in Cuba and Venezuela between 2002 and 2007.

Earlier this month, the Colombian leader won the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to end a 52-year-old war with the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The choice was a surprise given the fact that voters narrowly rejected a deal that he signed with them last month. While President Santos’ peace accord with the FARC was internationally lauded, it was narrowly rebuffed in a plebiscite as being too lenient on the rebels. Former President Alvaro Uribe is currently leading the effort to change the agreement, which would have given the FARC guaranteed congressional seats and immunity from traditional jail sentence. During the referendum, his side won by half a percentage point.

While peace with the two rebel groups is unlikely to put a complete end to the violence in Colombia, which has also been ravaged by unrest from drug trafficking and other crimes, it would allow economic development and would result in a shift of more military resources towards the fighting of growing criminal gangs.

President Santos, whose two-term rule ends in August 2018, has staked his reputation on inking peace agreements with both rebel groups. He is donating his Nobel prize, which is worth 8 million Swedish crowns (US $930,000) to Colombia’s conflict victims.

Two-Dozen ELN Rebels Surrender Ahead of Peace Talks

The military reported on 18 October that two-dozen fighters from the leftist National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels have surrendered voluntarily to the Colombian navy, in what is a sign that the group may be losing strength as it prepares to begin peace talks with the Colombian government.

In a statement, General Juan Pablo Rodriguez disclosed that the rebels from the Cimarron Resistance Front in the northwestern province of Choco handed over their firearms and munitions on 17 October. According to the statement, so far this year, 252 ELN members have demobilized, 388 have been captured and 46 have been killed in combat. Many rebels who demobilize do so individually, therefore making the surrender of a large group of fighters unusual.

Despite more than two years of on-and-off closed-door talks with the Colombian government, the 2,000-strong ELN has remained active, kidnapping and bombing oil installations.

The ELN is due to begin negotiations with the government of President Juan Manuel Santos on 27 October in a bid to end more than 52 years of war.

Mosul Offensive: Iraqi PM States it is Proceeding Faster than Planed

On Thursday 20 October, Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi disclosed that the offensive to seize back Mosul from the so-called Islamic State (IS) group was going faster than planned, as Iraqi and Kurdish forces launched a new military operation to clear villages around the city.

Speaking via a video conference call to senior officials who met in Paris in order to discuss the future of Iraq’s second-largest city, the Prime Minister disclosed “the forces are pushing towards the town more quickly than we though and more quickly than we had programmed.” Four days into the assault on Mosul, Iraqi government forces and allied Kurdish Peshmerga fighters are steadily recovering outlying territory before the main push into the city begins.

According to Kurdish and Iraqi military statements, on Thursday, an Iraqi army elite unit and Kurdish fighters started trying to take back villages north and east of Mosul. Sources on the ground have disclosed that howitzer and mortar fire started at 6:00 AM (0300 GMT), hitting a group of villages held by IS about 20 km (13 miles) north and east of Mosul, while helicopters flew overhead. In a statement announcing the launch of Thursday’s operations, the Kurdish general military disclosed that “the objectives are to clear a number of nearby villages and secure control of strategic areas to further restrict ISIL’s (IS) movements.”

Eastern Front

Sources have disclosed that dozens of black Humvees of the elite Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) mounted with machine guns, headed towards Bartella, which is a Christian village whose population fled after IS took over the region. The town is the main attack target on the eastern front. A CTS spokesman at a nearby location has reported that the militants are fighting back, using suicide car-bombs, roadside bombs and snipers in a bid to push the attack back, adding that they are pounding surrounding areas with mortar. Over the past year, the US-trained CTS has spearheaded most of the offensive against IS, including the capture of Ramadi and Falluja, west of the capital Baghdad. The force is deployed on a Kurdish frontline, marking the first joint military operation between the government of Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government in northern Iraq.

Northern Front

On the northern front, Kurdish Peshmerga shot down with machine guns an unmanned drone aircraft that came from IS lines in the village of Nawaran, which is located a few kilometres away. It was not clear if the drone, which was 1 – 2 metres (3 – 6 feet) wide, was carrying explosives or just on reconnaissance. According to Halgurd Hasan, one of the Kurdish fighters deployed in a position overlooking the plain north of Mosul, “there have ben times when they dropped explosives.”

The Iraqi Prime Minister announced the start of the offensive to retake Mosul on 17 October, two years after th city fell to the militants, who declared from its Grand Mosque a caliphate spanning parts of Iraq and neighbouring Syria. Mosul is the last big city stronghold held by IS in Iraq. Raqqa is the capital of the group in Syria. A US-led coalition, which includes Britain, Canada, France, Italy and other Western nations, is providing air and ground support to the forces who are closing in on the city. The battle for Mosul is expected to be the biggest battle in Iraq since the 2003 US-led invasion, which toppled Saddam Hussein. Around 1.5 million people still live in Mosul and the battle is expected to last weeks, if not months.

The warring sides are not making public their casualty tolls or the number of casualties amongst civilians. Iraqi officials and residents of Mosul however have reported that IS is preventing people from leaving the city, in effect using them as shields to complicate air strikes and the ground progress of the attacking forces. The administration of Mosul and surrounding Nineveh province is now one of the main topics of discussion for world leaders. There are growing concerns that the defeat of the ultra-hardline Sunni group would cause new sectarian and ethnic violence, fuelled by a desire to avenge atrocities that were inflicted on minority groups.