MS Risk Blog

Gambia Launches Bid to Leave ICC Following Several Other African Countries

The Gambia this month announced that it will be leaving the International Criminal Court (ICC) after Burundi and South Africa launched their own similar petitions in October to leave the court, which has been criticized by a number of African countries.

On Tuesday, 26 October the Gambian government announced that it is withdrawing from the International Criminal Court (ICC), accusing the world body of ignoring the “war crimes” of Western nations and seeking only to prosecute Africans. Speaking on state television, Information Minister Sheriff Bojang disclosed that “this action is warranted by the fact that the ICC, despite being called the International Criminal Court, is in fact an International Caucasian Court for the persecution and humiliation of people of colour, especially Africans.” The statement from Gambia, whose citizens make up disproportionately high proportion of the African migrant flow to Europe, further disclosed that it had sought to bring the European Union (EU) before the ICC over the deaths of migrants however it had received no response. It disclosed, “there are many Western countries, at least 30, that have committed heinous war crimes against independent sovereign states and their citizens since the creation of the ICC and not a single Western war criminal has been indicted.”

The decision by The Gambia comes just days after South Africa also announced that it was quitting The Hague-based tribunal. The ICC has yet to comment on the move, however coming soon after South Africa’s announcement, Gambia’s decision to also quit the court has added to pressure on the world’s first permanent war crimes court. Burundi has already said that it is planning to leave while Kenya’s parliament has disclosed that it is considering following suit. The ICC has had to fight off allegations that it is pursuing a neo-colonial agenda in Africa, where all but one of its ten investigations have been based.

Déjà vu as DRC President Kabila Clings to Power

During a speech in April 1990, then Zaire President Mobuto Sese Seko promised his people an end to one-party rule and a future without the many they knew as the Guide. However in the seven years that would follow, President Seko acted on few of his promises, and Zaire eventually sank into chaos, leading to his overthrow in 1997. In the years since, a number of conflicts have resulted in the death of millions of people, and in 2016, a quarter of a century after President Seko’s speech, déjà vu appears to have crept in as the future of democracy is questioned in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

On 15 October, the DRC’s ruling coalition and other smaller parties agreed to delay next months’ election to April 2018, in a move that is likely to anger opposition groups who have accused President Joseph Kabila of trying to cling onto power. According to one organization involved in the discussions, the Union for the Congolese Nation, the parties had agreed in talks on Saturday to give more time for voter registration and to keep President Kabila in office until the delayed vote. A statement has indicated that delegates at the talks would likely ratify the decision on 17 October. UNC president Vital Kamerhe is widely expected to become prime minister as part of the power-sharing government ushered in under the talks. While the DRC’s main opposition bloc has yet to comment on the move, it has already called for a general strike to take place on 19 October in order to press President Kabila to leave at the end of his mandate in December.

Last month, protests against President Kabila, 45, led to clashes with security forces ,with the United Nations reporting that at least fifty people were killed in the capital Kinshasa.

President Kabila has stated that he will respect the constitution, however he has yet to rule out attempting to change the country’s laws in order to enable him to run for a new term in office. Last year, the presidents of neighbouring Rwanda and the Republic of Congo changed their constitutions, effectively allowing themselves to stand for a third term. Opponents of President Kabila now say that they fear that he will do the same.

Colombian Government and FARC Willing to Hear Plans to Change Peace Agreement

The Colombian government and Marxist FARC rebels have disclosed that they are willing to listen to proposals to alter their peace accords after a negotiated agreement was unexpectedly rejected during a referendum, effectively leaving the country in limbo.

In a joint statement from Havana, Cuba, negotiators from the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) disclosed that after four years of talks, they have the “necessary reforms and measures to achieve peace and guarantee an end to the conflict.” The two sides however noted that they recognized that the accord was rejected in a 2 October referendum, adding that they were willing to listen to proposed adjustments. In the statement, which was ready by lead government negotiator Humberto de la Calle, both sides disclosed that “it’s right that we continue listening to different sectors of society in a quick and efficient manner to understand their concerns and promptly find a solution.” The statement however did not provide details of the next steps.

In a vote that confounded opinion polls and was a disaster for President Santos, Colombians narrowly rebuffed the pact as to lenient on the rebels.

In Bogota, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos and representatives have been listening to the views of those who voted against the deal, led by former President Alvaro Uribe. Those will be presented by government negotiations at some point to the FARC for discussion. Uribe opposed the peace talks from the beginning, later stating that the deal gave too many concessions to the rebels. He spearheaded the “no” campaign, urging Colombians to reject the accord, which would have given the FARC guaranteed congressional seats and immunity from traditional jail sentences. His side won by half a percentage point.

The statement from the two sides comes just hours after President Santos was awarded the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to end the 52-year-old war with the FAR. The Norwegian Nobel Committee disclosed that the Colombian leader had brought one of the longest civil wars in modern history closer to a peaceful solution, noting however that the process could still collapse given the results of the referendum.

Colombia to Begin Peace Talks with ELN Rebels on 27 October

The Colombian government and the second-largest rebel group announced earlier this month that they will begin formal peace talks on 27 October in what is likely to be a boost for President Juan Manuel Santos in the wake of the rejection of his deal with the larger FARC guerrilla group.

According to an agreement signed in Caracas by both sides under the auspices of Venezuela’s government, the negotiations with the 2,000-strong National Liberation Army (ELN) will begin in Ecuador. In a speech shortly after the announcement, President Santos disclosed that “we are a special nation that grows despite adversities,” adding, “peace wont slip through out fingers. On the contrary, it will be stronger, and now that we will advance with the ELN, it will be complete.”

At war for five decades, after being founded by radical Catholic priests and inspired by Cuba’s revolution, the ELN has been in on-an-off closed-door talks with the Colombian government since January 2014, with talks focusing on how the two sides would conduct peace negotiations and what would be on the table. The ELN has remained active during this time, kidnapping and bombing oil installations. However in recent months, it has released some captives and with the announcement of the agreement, the ELN has stated that it would begin to release two remaining hostages by 27 October. The ELN has sought peace before, holding talks in Cuba and Venezuela between 2002 and 2007.

Earlier this month, the Colombian leader won the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to end a 52-year-old war with the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The choice was a surprise given the fact that voters narrowly rejected a deal that he signed with them last month. While President Santos’ peace accord with the FARC was internationally lauded, it was narrowly rebuffed in a plebiscite as being too lenient on the rebels. Former President Alvaro Uribe is currently leading the effort to change the agreement, which would have given the FARC guaranteed congressional seats and immunity from traditional jail sentence. During the referendum, his side won by half a percentage point.

While peace with the two rebel groups is unlikely to put a complete end to the violence in Colombia, which has also been ravaged by unrest from drug trafficking and other crimes, it would allow economic development and would result in a shift of more military resources towards the fighting of growing criminal gangs.

President Santos, whose two-term rule ends in August 2018, has staked his reputation on inking peace agreements with both rebel groups. He is donating his Nobel prize, which is worth 8 million Swedish crowns (US $930,000) to Colombia’s conflict victims.

Two-Dozen ELN Rebels Surrender Ahead of Peace Talks

The military reported on 18 October that two-dozen fighters from the leftist National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels have surrendered voluntarily to the Colombian navy, in what is a sign that the group may be losing strength as it prepares to begin peace talks with the Colombian government.

In a statement, General Juan Pablo Rodriguez disclosed that the rebels from the Cimarron Resistance Front in the northwestern province of Choco handed over their firearms and munitions on 17 October. According to the statement, so far this year, 252 ELN members have demobilized, 388 have been captured and 46 have been killed in combat. Many rebels who demobilize do so individually, therefore making the surrender of a large group of fighters unusual.

Despite more than two years of on-and-off closed-door talks with the Colombian government, the 2,000-strong ELN has remained active, kidnapping and bombing oil installations.

The ELN is due to begin negotiations with the government of President Juan Manuel Santos on 27 October in a bid to end more than 52 years of war.