MS Risk Blog

Germany’s Merkel Likely to Run for Fourth Term in 2017 Election

Senior parties allies of German Chancellor Angela Merkel are increasingly indicating that they expect her to run for a fourth term in office in 2017, even through her popularity has declined under the impact of the migrant crisis.

Merkel, 62, has been Germany’s chancellor since 2005, however she has repeatedly declined to comment whetehr she will run again in 2017, stating only that she will make her intentions clear in due course. In September, she disclosed that she was still motivated, however a senior ally of Merkel’s recently indicated that he did not see any other realistic alternative for the post of chairwoman of the Christian Democrats (CDU) – a role which is likely to be filled by the party’s top candidate for chancellor. When asked whether he expected candidates other than Merkel to run for party chair at its conference in December, Peter Tauber, secretary general of the CDU disclosed “as far as I know, there’s no one else who is preparing to run for this office.” Meanwhile in an interview on 16 October with Tagesspiegel newspaper, Tauber pointed to Merkel’s view that one person should fill the roles of both party chair and chancellor. Meanwhile on 17 October, Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen, a CDU member who is often rumoured to be a possible successor to Merkel, told a gathering of senior military leaders that she hoped to continue serving in her role beyond the election. CDU member Annegret Kramp-Karrenbuaer, who is premier of the state of Saarland, stated of the vote for party chair: “There will be one female candidate,” adding that the party would elect that candidate with a big majority.

While Merkel is seen as one of the most successful chancellors of post-unification Germany, her popularity has declined since her decision last year to allow hundreds of thousands of migrants into the country. However in an Infratest dimap poll, which was published on 6 October, 54 percent of Germans indicated that they were satisfied with her work, up by 9 points compared with a September poll.

France Officially Ends Operations in CAR

On 31 October, France formally ended Operation Sangaris in the Central African Republic, almost three years after the military mission was launched in December 2013 in a bid to quell inter-ethnic unrest in the country.

The operation initially ran alongside an African Union (AU) peacekeeping mission, which was known as MISCA and which later morphed into the UN’s MINUSCA force, which aimed to help restore stability in the capital city Bangui. The mission has however, for the most part, failed to end violence elsewhere in the country, as clashes have continued to erupt in recent weeks and tensions remain high.

At its height, France had more than 2,500 troops from various French units that took part in the mission. In June 2016, France indicated that it had reduced its force in the CAR to 350 soldiers, who would serve as tactical reserve force for the UN peacekeepers, effectively announcing the end of its military mission there. The number of soldiers is due to fall below 300 by early next year with the remaining troops deployed as part of a European military training mission, to support UN drone operations or as a rapid reaction unit supporting the national army.

France’s withdrawal has effectively left security largely in the hands of MINUSCA, the 13,000-strong UN peacekeeping mission, however in recent weeks, criticism of the force has increased, with local people accusing the peacekeepers of not doing enough in order to protect them. The National Assembly president, Abdoul Karim Meckassoua, has expressed concern that the French troops’ departure would exacerbate a deteriorating security climate.

About 3,500 French troops are currently stationed in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger as part of Operation Barkhane in order to fight militancy in West Africa and the Sahel region.

Overview of Operation Sangaris

• 5 December 2013 – Widespread clashes erupted in Bangui, leaving hundreds dead in the streets.
• Christian milita groups, known as anti-Balaka (anti-machete) attacked a number of areas in the capital city, targeting Muslims and triggering revenge attacks by the mainly-Muslim Seleka rebel alliance. Seleka fighters has already targeted the majority Christian population, a key reason as to why the anti-Balaka group emerged. Attacks by both sides, mostly targeting civilians, plunged the CAR into a humanitarian, political and security crisis.
• Several hours after the violence broke out, a French operation force began deploying across the country as part of a UN-mandated effort to quell the deadly wave of sectarian violence. The operation was named “Sangaris” after a small red butterfly that is common the region.
• At the time, French President Francois Hollande disclosed that the troops would remain in the country “as long as necessary,” noting however that the operation was “not designed to last.” Paris, which had already deployed troops to Mali in January of that year in order to battle jihadist groups, watched the situation in the CAR continue to deteriorate following the overthrow in March of Francois Bozize by Seleka rebels who were led by Michel Djotodia.
• An initial force of about 1,200 French marines, paratroopers and engineering units was official deployed to back up the AU’s MISCA force, however they quickly found themselves on the Front line. Their mandate was to “disarm all milita and other armed group s that have terrorized the population” and the fist objective was to secure the capital city and tis 4.5 million inhabitants.
• Between February to September 2014 – Combat troops also secured a road link from Bangui to neighbouring Cameroon.
• September 2014 – Un soldiers from MINUSCA took over the MISCA troops.
• 14 February 2016 – Faustin-Archange Touadera is elected president, effectively capping a chaotic political transition. Three months later, President Hollande visited Bangui, declaring that stability “has been restored.” Elsewhere in the country however armed groups continued to plague the population. Former Seleka units remain active and a total disarmament of militia groups appears to be unlikely.
• Since July 2014, the force has been under growing pressure following the emergence of allegations of child rape by French soldiers deployed in the CAR. French prosecutors opened an investigation, however the allegations did not become public until April 2015. Since then, other reports have emerged about troops’ alleged involvement in sexual attacks and giving children food and sometimes small amounts of money for sexual services. Currently, the Sangaris force is subject to three investigations into separate allegations of sexual abuse of children in the CAR. In June 2016, Paris prosecutors also opened a preliminary investigation into allegations that French troops beat up, or stood by while others beat up two people in the CAR.
• France has intervened military in the CAR a number of times. The CAR, which is a former French colony, won independence in 1960.

Commissioner Warns that EU Should Prepare for Return of Jihadists as Iraq Launches Operation on Mosul

The European Union’s (EU) commissioner has warned that the EU should be prepared for returning jihadists if the so-called Islamic State (IS) is driven out of its Iraqi stronghold, Mosul.

Julian King has told Germany’s Die Welt newspaper that even a small number of militants would pose “a serious threat that we must prepare ourselves for.” The comments come after Iraqi forces on 17 October launched what is expected to be a lengthy offensive on Mosul. Officials believe that as many as 5,000 IS fighters are believed to remain in the city.

King, a British diplomat who was recently made the EU’s security commissioner, told Die Wel that the threat of IS fighters returning to Europe after the fall of Mosul was “very serious.” He disclosed that there were currently about 2,500 fighters from EU countries in the combat zone, stressing however that it was “very unlikely that there would be a mass exodus of IS fighters to Europe.” He noted that similar cases in the past had shown that “only a few fighters come back.”

On day one of the offensive, a coalition of some 34,000 Iraq security personnel, Kurdish fighters, Sunni Arab tribesmen, and Shia military forces, backed by the US and other nations, took control of a number of villages and districts located in the south and east of Mosul. On the ground sources have reported that the strategy is to encircle the city before moving in on the centre itself. Late on 17 October, US Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook disclosed that the campaign was “ahead of schedule,” warning however that it was early days and it was not yet known whetehr IS fighters would “stand and fight.” On 18 October, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned that “it could be a long battle” lasting several weeks, if not months.

In other reports, the Syrian army has accused the US-led coalition of planning to allow IS fighters in Mosul to flee into Syria. The army, which has no control over Syria’s border with Iraq, was quoted by Reuters news agency as stating that it would resist any attempt by fighters to cross. The commander of Iraq’s Counter-terrorism Service, Maj-Gen Fadhil Jalil al-Barwari, has been quoted by the New Arab website as saying that IS fighters are being offered two corridors “to go to Syria.”

Gambia Launches Bid to Leave ICC Following Several Other African Countries

The Gambia this month announced that it will be leaving the International Criminal Court (ICC) after Burundi and South Africa launched their own similar petitions in October to leave the court, which has been criticized by a number of African countries.

On Tuesday, 26 October the Gambian government announced that it is withdrawing from the International Criminal Court (ICC), accusing the world body of ignoring the “war crimes” of Western nations and seeking only to prosecute Africans. Speaking on state television, Information Minister Sheriff Bojang disclosed that “this action is warranted by the fact that the ICC, despite being called the International Criminal Court, is in fact an International Caucasian Court for the persecution and humiliation of people of colour, especially Africans.” The statement from Gambia, whose citizens make up disproportionately high proportion of the African migrant flow to Europe, further disclosed that it had sought to bring the European Union (EU) before the ICC over the deaths of migrants however it had received no response. It disclosed, “there are many Western countries, at least 30, that have committed heinous war crimes against independent sovereign states and their citizens since the creation of the ICC and not a single Western war criminal has been indicted.”

The decision by The Gambia comes just days after South Africa also announced that it was quitting The Hague-based tribunal. The ICC has yet to comment on the move, however coming soon after South Africa’s announcement, Gambia’s decision to also quit the court has added to pressure on the world’s first permanent war crimes court. Burundi has already said that it is planning to leave while Kenya’s parliament has disclosed that it is considering following suit. The ICC has had to fight off allegations that it is pursuing a neo-colonial agenda in Africa, where all but one of its ten investigations have been based.

Déjà vu as DRC President Kabila Clings to Power

During a speech in April 1990, then Zaire President Mobuto Sese Seko promised his people an end to one-party rule and a future without the many they knew as the Guide. However in the seven years that would follow, President Seko acted on few of his promises, and Zaire eventually sank into chaos, leading to his overthrow in 1997. In the years since, a number of conflicts have resulted in the death of millions of people, and in 2016, a quarter of a century after President Seko’s speech, déjà vu appears to have crept in as the future of democracy is questioned in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

On 15 October, the DRC’s ruling coalition and other smaller parties agreed to delay next months’ election to April 2018, in a move that is likely to anger opposition groups who have accused President Joseph Kabila of trying to cling onto power. According to one organization involved in the discussions, the Union for the Congolese Nation, the parties had agreed in talks on Saturday to give more time for voter registration and to keep President Kabila in office until the delayed vote. A statement has indicated that delegates at the talks would likely ratify the decision on 17 October. UNC president Vital Kamerhe is widely expected to become prime minister as part of the power-sharing government ushered in under the talks. While the DRC’s main opposition bloc has yet to comment on the move, it has already called for a general strike to take place on 19 October in order to press President Kabila to leave at the end of his mandate in December.

Last month, protests against President Kabila, 45, led to clashes with security forces ,with the United Nations reporting that at least fifty people were killed in the capital Kinshasa.

President Kabila has stated that he will respect the constitution, however he has yet to rule out attempting to change the country’s laws in order to enable him to run for a new term in office. Last year, the presidents of neighbouring Rwanda and the Republic of Congo changed their constitutions, effectively allowing themselves to stand for a third term. Opponents of President Kabila now say that they fear that he will do the same.