MS Risk Blog

French Presidential Election: Hamon Wins Socialist Party Primary

On Sunday 29 January, France’s Socialists picked left-winger Benois Hamon as their candidate for president, however it is unlikely that them over will help them with the election. It could however boost the campaign of popular independent centrist Emmanuel Macron.

With 60 percent of the votes in the Socialists’ primary counted, the ex-education minister had won 58.65 percent against his rival Manuel Valls, a former prime minister who is closer to the centre ground and who embraces pro-business policies. The Socialists, which have been weakened and divided after the deeply unpopular presidency of Francois Hollande, have been given next to no chance of getting beyond the first round of the election in April. However by choosing the 49-year-old Hamon on Valls, they have given Macron a big group of middle-ground voters to aim at and a better chance of beating his close rivals on the right and far-right.

Sunday’s results have also shown the deep fractures in the Socialist camp. It takes the party back to the traditional pro-worker roots, which got Hollande elected in 2012 and it rejects the U-turn that he made mid-way through his mandate – the as-yet unsuccessful bid to jump-start growth and jobs by forcing through business-friendly reforms. Analysts are now warning that if Hamon fails to make an impact on the campaign, where the Socialist candidate trails behind four others in opinion polls, it could lead to the party having very little say for the next five years or even lead to tis breaking-up.

The Socialist primary effectively provided the last candidate for the election and the battle lines are now sharply drawn in the race for the two-stage election, which will be held on 23 April and 7 May. Conservative Francois Fillon, the Republicans’ candidate, and far-right leader Marine Le pen are still seen by opinion polls as being able to meet in the May runoff. However Fillon’s campaign has been thrown of track by a press report accusing him of employing his wife as a parliamentary assistant on a big salary without doing any work. He has denied the charges. Opinion polls have also shown that the campaign of Mr Macron is also gathering momentum, with analysts noting that he could still upset the balance. Th centrist former economy ministers says that he wants to bridge the Left and the Right and has shunned any party patronage. Political campaigners have indicated that the Socialists’ choice of Hamon, a traditional left-winger, will only favor Macron’s campaign, noting that supporters of the business-friendly policies, who like Macron has steered centrist policies, are likely to give their vote now to the popular former banker.

Trump Announces that NAFTA “Renegotiations” with Canada and Mexico to Start Soon

US President Donald Trump has stated that he will soon begin “renegotiating” the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with his Canadian and Mexican counterparts.

According to the newly sworn-in president, meetings have been scheduled with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto. The White House website states that if Canada and Mexico refuse to accept a renegotiation of the agreement that provides a “fair deal” for American workers, then the US will move to withdraw from it.

Speaking at a ceremony to swear in senior White House staff, President Trump also stated that he would tak with Mexican President Pena Nieto about immigration and and border security in a meeting that the White House says will take place on 31 January. No date has been given for a meeting between Mr Trump and Mr Trudeau.

Meanwhile on 21 January, President Pena Nieto’s office disclosed that the Mexican leader had called Mr Trump to congratulate him. In a statement, the Mexican president “reiterated the strategic priority of bilateral ties…and expressed his interest in maintaining an open dialogue.” President Trump meanwhile has stated that “Mexico has been terrific. The president has been really very amazing.” In regards to the NAFTA renegotiations, President Trump stated, “I think we are going to have a very good result for Mexico, for the United States, for everybody.”

President Pena Nieto has faced criticism in Mexico for lacking a clear plan of action to deal with President Trump’s threats, which include building a massive border wall at Mexico’s expense and imposing a tax on Mexican imports. Protests were held on 20 January outside a Ford showroom in Mexico City after the car company cancelled a US $1.6 billion plant that it had planned on building in Mexico.

What is the NAFTA Agreement?

The North American Free Trade Agreement came into effect between the US, Canada and Mexico in 1994, when Bill Clinton was president. The agreement effectively created one of the world’s largest free trade zones by reducing or eliminating tariffs on most products. The pact was meant to benefit small businesses by lowering costs and reducing bureaucracy in a bid to facilitate buying and selling abroad. However whether it has ultimately helped or harmed Americans has been hotly debated. In 2015, the Congressional Research Service, which provides independent analysis, stated that “in reality, NAFTA did not cause the huge job losses feared by the critics or the large economic gains predicted by supporters,” adding that “the net overall effect of NAFTA on the US economy appears to have been relatively modest, primarily because trade with Canada and Mexico accounts for a small percentage of US GDP.”

Donald Trump Protests Attract Millions Across the US and the World

Over the past weekend, millions of protesters took to the streets of cities in the United States and around the world to rally against the new US President Donald Trump.

Larger numbers of demonstrators than expected turned out for the more than 600 rallies that were held worldwide. The aim was principally to highlight omen’s rights, which activists believe to be under threat from the new administration.

The biggest rally held in the US was in the capital Washington, where city officials estimated that more than 500,000 people attended the protest. This figure far exceeded the 200,000 that had been originally expected by organizers of the Women’s March on Washington. By most estimates, it also surpassed the crowd at Friday’s presidential inauguration. The protesters in the nation’s capital heard speeches from actresses Scarlet Johansson, America Ferrera, as well as from Ashley Judd, Gloria Steinem and Michale Moore, amongst others. A planned march to the White House proved impossible as the entire route was filled with demonstrators.

Large crowds were also reported at other US protests. So many turned out in Chicago – some 150,000 – that a planned march had to called off and the event declared a rally. Streets were also overflowing in Los Angeles. Huge crowds were also reported in New York, Seattle, Boston and Miami, some of the venues for about 300 nationwide protests.

Globally, protests were also held. Organizers of a London rally stated that between 80,000 and 100,000 people had taken part there. Belfast, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester and Bristol were amongst the other UK cities that held protests. Anti-Trump marches took place earlier in Australia, New Zealand and in several Asian cities. Barcelona, Rome, Amsterdam, Geneva, Budapest, Prague, Paris and Berlin were among the European cities that took part.

Meanwhile, President Trump used his first full day in office to visit the CIA’s headquarters, where he said that he was “1,000%” behind the spy agency’s employees. He began the day with an inter-faith service at Washington National Cathedral before arriving at the CIA’s headquarters in Langley, Virginia. During the election campaign, Mr Trump had sharply criticized the intelligence agencies over their stance on alleged Russian involvement in the presidential election. He also accused the media of being dishonest in its reporting of the size of the crowd at his inauguration on 20 January. The newly sworn in president however did not refer to Saturday’s protests.

The president’s team has also been quick to overhaul the White House website, with the revamp replacing Barack Obama’s policies with Mr Trump’s new agenda. The new administration lists only six issues on the website: energy, foreign police, jobs and growth, military, law enforcement and trade deals. Critics have complained that it made no mention of civil rights, healthcare, climate change or LGBT rights.

France’s Valls Stumbles in First Round of Primaries

Former French Prime Minister Manuel Valls called on Monday 23 January for a big turnout in the second round of the Socialist primaries after a first round vote on 22 January made left-wing rival Benoit Hamon frontrunner to represent the party in this year’s presidential election.

Late on Sunday, Valls said on RTL Radio “ to all those voters who believe in the Left, do not despair, mobilise.” Late on Sunday, he stated that the choice between Hamon and himself was one of “certain defeat and possible victory” in the presidential election.

Hamon, 48, is a traditional left-winger who was dismissed from the government by President Francois Hollande in 2014 for criticising his economic policies. According to partial results, Hamon won about 36 percent of the vote to Vall’s 31. The former education minister also secured the backing of Arnaud Montebourg, another left-winger, who came in third with 18 percent and was therefore eliminated along with four other candidates. The outcome of next Sunday’s head-to-head vote however remains uncertain.

Opinion polls show that no Socialist candidate is likely to win the presidency, indicating that conservative Francois Fillon is the favourite to win, with Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front (FN) coming in second place. Polls however also show that a victory for Hamon in next Sunday’s (29 January) Socialist primaries second round runoff against Valls could expose the centre ground to which Valls hopes to appeal, and thereby boosting the presidential prospects of independent centrist Emmanuel Macron.

Gambians Celebrate as Jammeh Flees the Country

Gambians across the country celebrated on Sunday 22 January after a West African regional military force entered the capital city Banjul and took control of the presidential palace. Former President Yahya Jammeh, who was in power for 22 years, had refused to accept defeat to opposition challenger Adama Barrow, who won the 1 December 2016 presidential election. He flew out of Banjul late on Saturday en route to Equatorial Guinea as the regional force was poised to remove him.

The regional military operation was first launched late on 19 January after President Barrow was sworn in as president at Gambia’s embassy in neighbouring Senegal. The operation however was halted hours later in a bid to give the former leader one last chance to leave peacefully. His departure followed two days of negotiations, which were led by Guinea President Alpha Conde and Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz. This had prompted speculation over what, if any, terms were agreed upon to convince him to step down.

Hundreds of residents of the capital city assembled outside State House on Sunday after soldiers, who deployed on Sunday to secure the country, moved in to secure the compound. Senegalese army officials disclosed that the force, which also includes troops from Nigeria, Ghana and Mali, met no resistance as they advanced on Sunday.

However amidst the celebrations, troubling details of the former president’s departure began to emerge.

Speaking to radio station RFM in Senegal, where he is waiting to return to Gambia, President Barros stated that, upon initial inspection, it appeared that Jammeh had looted stat resources. The President stated, “according to information we received, there is no money in the coffers…It’s what we have been told, but the day we actually take office, we will clarify all of it.” During a news conference later in the day, Mai Ahmad Fatty, adviser to President Barrow, stated that 500 million dalasis (US $11.45 million) had been withdrawn by the former president in the past two weeks. Reports have also indicated that luxury cars and other items were reportedly loaded on to a Chadian cargo plane as Jammeh left the country.

The new president also disclosed that Jammeh had “…wanted to stay in Gambia,” adding “we said we couldn’t guarantee his security and said that he should leave.” President Barrow also denied that Jammeh had been offered immunity from prosecution in exchange for leaving the country.

Earlier in the day, the African Union (AU) and United Nations published a document on behalf of these two organizations and regional bloc ECOWAS. In it, they pledged, among other things, to protect Jammeh’s rights “as a citizen, a party leader and a former Head of state,” to prevent the seizure of property belonging to him and his allies, and to ensure he can eventually return to Gambia. President Barrow has since disclosed that the document had not been singed and did not constitute a binding agreement. He also stated that he planed to return to Gambia soon, however he did not disclose when.

Rights groups have accused Jammeh of jailing, torturing and killing his political opponents while acquiring a vast fortune, which includes luxury cars and an estate in the United States, as most of his people remained impoverished. Thousands of Gambians sought asylum abroad over the years. According to the United Nations, an additional 45,000 people fled to neighbouring Senegal amidst growing fears of unrest in the wake of last month’s presidential election. On Sunday, hundreds of Gambians carrying sacks, suitcases and cooking pots began returning by ferry from Senegals’ Casamance region.