MS Risk Blog

France’s Valls Stumbles in First Round of Primaries

Former French Prime Minister Manuel Valls called on Monday 23 January for a big turnout in the second round of the Socialist primaries after a first round vote on 22 January made left-wing rival Benoit Hamon frontrunner to represent the party in this year’s presidential election.

Late on Sunday, Valls said on RTL Radio “ to all those voters who believe in the Left, do not despair, mobilise.” Late on Sunday, he stated that the choice between Hamon and himself was one of “certain defeat and possible victory” in the presidential election.

Hamon, 48, is a traditional left-winger who was dismissed from the government by President Francois Hollande in 2014 for criticising his economic policies. According to partial results, Hamon won about 36 percent of the vote to Vall’s 31. The former education minister also secured the backing of Arnaud Montebourg, another left-winger, who came in third with 18 percent and was therefore eliminated along with four other candidates. The outcome of next Sunday’s head-to-head vote however remains uncertain.

Opinion polls show that no Socialist candidate is likely to win the presidency, indicating that conservative Francois Fillon is the favourite to win, with Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front (FN) coming in second place. Polls however also show that a victory for Hamon in next Sunday’s (29 January) Socialist primaries second round runoff against Valls could expose the centre ground to which Valls hopes to appeal, and thereby boosting the presidential prospects of independent centrist Emmanuel Macron.

Gambians Celebrate as Jammeh Flees the Country

Gambians across the country celebrated on Sunday 22 January after a West African regional military force entered the capital city Banjul and took control of the presidential palace. Former President Yahya Jammeh, who was in power for 22 years, had refused to accept defeat to opposition challenger Adama Barrow, who won the 1 December 2016 presidential election. He flew out of Banjul late on Saturday en route to Equatorial Guinea as the regional force was poised to remove him.

The regional military operation was first launched late on 19 January after President Barrow was sworn in as president at Gambia’s embassy in neighbouring Senegal. The operation however was halted hours later in a bid to give the former leader one last chance to leave peacefully. His departure followed two days of negotiations, which were led by Guinea President Alpha Conde and Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz. This had prompted speculation over what, if any, terms were agreed upon to convince him to step down.

Hundreds of residents of the capital city assembled outside State House on Sunday after soldiers, who deployed on Sunday to secure the country, moved in to secure the compound. Senegalese army officials disclosed that the force, which also includes troops from Nigeria, Ghana and Mali, met no resistance as they advanced on Sunday.

However amidst the celebrations, troubling details of the former president’s departure began to emerge.

Speaking to radio station RFM in Senegal, where he is waiting to return to Gambia, President Barros stated that, upon initial inspection, it appeared that Jammeh had looted stat resources. The President stated, “according to information we received, there is no money in the coffers…It’s what we have been told, but the day we actually take office, we will clarify all of it.” During a news conference later in the day, Mai Ahmad Fatty, adviser to President Barrow, stated that 500 million dalasis (US $11.45 million) had been withdrawn by the former president in the past two weeks. Reports have also indicated that luxury cars and other items were reportedly loaded on to a Chadian cargo plane as Jammeh left the country.

The new president also disclosed that Jammeh had “…wanted to stay in Gambia,” adding “we said we couldn’t guarantee his security and said that he should leave.” President Barrow also denied that Jammeh had been offered immunity from prosecution in exchange for leaving the country.

Earlier in the day, the African Union (AU) and United Nations published a document on behalf of these two organizations and regional bloc ECOWAS. In it, they pledged, among other things, to protect Jammeh’s rights “as a citizen, a party leader and a former Head of state,” to prevent the seizure of property belonging to him and his allies, and to ensure he can eventually return to Gambia. President Barrow has since disclosed that the document had not been singed and did not constitute a binding agreement. He also stated that he planed to return to Gambia soon, however he did not disclose when.

Rights groups have accused Jammeh of jailing, torturing and killing his political opponents while acquiring a vast fortune, which includes luxury cars and an estate in the United States, as most of his people remained impoverished. Thousands of Gambians sought asylum abroad over the years. According to the United Nations, an additional 45,000 people fled to neighbouring Senegal amidst growing fears of unrest in the wake of last month’s presidential election. On Sunday, hundreds of Gambians carrying sacks, suitcases and cooking pots began returning by ferry from Senegals’ Casamance region.

US Bombed Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria and Yemen in 2016

According to an analysis of American strikes around the world, in 2016, the United States dropped an average of 72 bombs every day – the equivalent of three an hour. The report, which was released by the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR), comes as President Barack Obama finishes up his presidency – one that began with promises to withdraw from international conflicts.

According to the New York City-based think tank, 26,171 bombs were dropped on Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Somali and Pakistan during last year, with the CFR warning that its estimates were “undoubtedly low, considering reliable date is only available for airstrikes in Pakistan, Yemen, Somali and Libya, and a single ‘strike,’ according to the Pentagon’s definition, can involve multiple bombs or munitions.”

The CFR has reported that 24,287 bombs wee used in Iraq and Syria, where the US is helping drive Islamic State (IS) militants from swaths of both countries. According to the CFR, in 2015, the US dropped 22,110 bombs in Iraq and Syria. Last year also saw a sharp rise in strikes in Afghanistan, with 1,337 being recorded, compared with 947 in 2015. The study, which compiled data from a number of military and press sources, also indicated that three bombs were dropped in Pakistan last year; 14 in Somalia; and 34 in Yemen. A similar study in 2015 indicated that 11 bombs had been dropped in Pakistan during that year; 58 in Yemen; and 18 in Somalia. The 2015 analysis did not include Libya.

The One China Policy and China-Taiwan Relations

A new friction is triggered between China and the US when the US president-elect Donald Trump said that the “One China Policy” is up for negotiation. Following Trump’s phone conversation with the Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen, China has become more suspicious of Taiwan’s intent of wanting to push for its independence and Trump grabs this opportunity to use as a bargaining chip against China. The Obama administration, on the other hand, has repeatedly reinforced the US commitment to “One China Policy”. According to Trump, this notion is likely to change under his administration unless Beijing agrees to alter its terms of trade with the US.

“The One China Policy” is a view that there is only one Chinese government and that the US has formal ties with China rather than Taiwan. China also holds that any country that wants diplomatic relationship with Mainland China must break official ties with Taipei. This has resulted in Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation from the international community. “The One China Policy” is, however, different from the “One China Principle” of the “1992 Consensus”, which urges that Taiwan and China are inalienable parts of a single China. The Consensus allows both Taiwan and China to agree that there is only one sovereign state of China but either cannot agree on which of the two governments is the legitimate government of the state.

Although the US, China and Taiwan, apparently, seem be pursuing their respective agendas in this friction, Taiwan should know better than to fully trust the new US administration in its suspected pursuit of independence. Trump, in his election campaign has often tried to portray the US on the loser end of US-China terms of trade, a position that he vows to change. This indicates that Taiwan will only be used as long as it can be used as a bargaining chip to potentially secure US trade advantages over China. Moreover, the Taiwanese President’s recent out-reach to Trump can only endanger Taiwan’s position in relation to China, but not as much, the vested stakes between the US and China relations. There is just too much to lose in the US-China trade relations if diplomacy gets bitter between the two super-powers.

In 2005, China’s parliament has passed an anti-cessation bill authorizing use of force if Taiwan declares independence. Taiwanese companies have invested over $49 billion in China and up to 1 million Taiwanese live in the Mainland. While Taiwanese may worry that their economy is dependent on China, but closer business ties makes Chinese military action on Taiwan less likely, but not necessarily impossible.

The US-China trade relations will unlikely be the lynchpin of China-Taiwan relations in the near future. The US jumping to seize the opportunity to challenge the “One China Policy” is more of a giveaway in negotiation with China because China already knows what is very important to the US and both the countries have mutual stakes in trade partnership. China in 2017 is not the China in 1958 when the Mainland bombarded the offshore islands held by the Nationalist troops in Taiwan, nearly sparking a war between the US and the Mainland. Taiwan being seen as a province of China continues to be an important agenda item of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and it can be said with much certainty that the Asian superpower will not subject itself to be compromised on national sovereignty over trade deals with the US or any country for that matter.

Status quo will, therefore, most likely prevail on the China-Taiwan relations now and in the near future with, however, intermittent escalation of political and military tensions. In terms of trade with the US, China will likely offset Trump’s rivalry with the Mainland with essentially economic strategies. These will soon enough get the US busy in battling China’s economic strategies and to see Taiwan as merely a futile factor to benefit from trade deals with China.

Security Advisory: The Gambia (18 January 2017)

Executive Summary

The incumbent President, Yahya Jammeh, continues to contest the 1 December 2016 preidential election results at the Supreme Court. Th President-elect, Mr Adama Barrow, has lft the country and is currently in neighboring Senegal. The Economic Community ofWest African States (ECOWAS) has stated that it may intervene, including possible military action, if President Jammeh does not step down on the scheduled handover date of 19 January 2017. Increasing international pressure to step down has resulted in President Jammeh declaring a state of emergency on 17 January. The following day, the National Assembly announced that the president could remain in office for a further three months.

The Gambian government is divided over this issue, and in recent days a number of ministers have resigned. There have also been reports of restrictive measures being imposed, including the shutting down of opposition radio stations and politically motivated arrests.

Security Advisory

Tensions remain high across the country and the ongoing political deadlock could lead to unrest. Due to the deteriorating political situation and potential military intervention following MS risk advises against all but essential travel to The Gambia. If you are currently in The Gambia, we advise that you should leave by commercial means if you have no essential need to remain. The potential for military intervention and civil disturbances remains high and this could result in Banjul International Airport being closed at short notice.

• Have a weeks supply of food and water as well as fuel
• Monitor travel advise and social media updates
• Avoid large crowds as they may turn violent with little notice
• Avoid discussing politically sensitive topics in public
• You should expect to see increased government forces traffic and presence if tensions increase
• If you are a visitor, remain in contact with your airline/tour operator and insurer.
• If you are visiting and staying in a hotel, identify the emergency procedures in place

MS Risk continues to closely monitor the situation in The Gambia and we will issue further bulletins as more information becomes available.