MS Risk Blog

Islamic State Group “Lost Quarter of Territory” in 2016

According to new analysis, the so-called Islamic State (IS) group lost almost a quarter of its territory in 2016.

Security and defense analysts IHS Markit have reported that last year, the terrorist group gave up almost 18,000 sq km (6,900 sq miles), with its territory effectively reducing to some 60,400 sq km, just less than the size of the US state of Florida. According to IHS Markit, the 23% reduction in IS-held territory in 2016 followed on from a 14% loss in 2015.

IHS Market predicted the recapture of Mosul by Iraqi government forces by the middle of the year, nothing that the stronghold of Raqqa would be more difficult to recapture. What is also troubling is that IS retook the city of Palmyra in December 2016.

The report also highlighted what it said was a major theological dispute within IS, between those following mainstream doctrine and those taking a more radical interpretation, noting that this could raise the risk of defections or even cause an internal break-up.

TWO SAUDIS KILLED IN WARSHIP ATTACK OFF HUDAYDAH PORT, YEMEN

31 January, 2017– An attack on a Saudi warship west of Hudaydah Port has left two crew members killed and three injured. Al Masira TV, a Houthi-controlled station, has broadcast what appears to be footage of the attack on Yemen’s western coast.

Rebel sources told Al Masira that guided missiles were used in the attack; however, a statement by Saudi authorities says that three “suicide boats” approached the frigate. One of the suicide boats reportedly collided with the rear of frigate, exploding and causing a fire.

The attacks come as coalition forces continue “Operation Golden Spear,” which began on 7 January 2017. Operation Golden Spear will see coalition forces advancing northward along Yemen’s western coast to drive Houthi rebels out of Hudaydah and other Red Sea ports. The coalition has warned that the Houthis may be using Hudaydah as a launch-pad for terrorist operations that could hamper international navigation and the flow of humanitarian and medical necessities into Yemen.

Saba news agency, part of which taken over by the Houthis in January 2015, cited a military source as saying, “The targeting of this warship comes within the framework of the legal right of Yemen to defend the homeland and its sovereignty.”

The attack comes ten days after a statement reportedly made by the Yemeni navy, coastal defense and coastguard, which warned that the forces are prepared to respond to aggression, should Saudi warships in international waters bomb civilian targets in the country. The statement also warned that merchant vessels in international water land require Long Range Tracking and Identification (LRIT) for safe navigation. In October, the Houthis were accused of firing missiles at a US warship and a UAE chartered logistics ship.

In a separate event, al Masira reports on Tuesday morning, Houthi fighters launched a missile at a coalition military base on the island of Zuqar, situated between Yemen and Eritrea on the Red Sea. There is currently no information regarding damages or casualties, nor confirmation from the Saudi-led coalition. South of Hudaydah, fierce fighting is reported to be ongoing at the port city of Mokha.

MS Risk continues to advise extreme caution for vessels traveling through Bab Al Mandab, the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. In October, MS Risk warned that the battle in Yemen could change in trajectory, causing greater impact on the maritime navigation through the Bab al Mandab Strait. According to reports, Hudaydah port remains operation, however this is subject to change. The Saudi-led coalition has not yet given any indication of its next steps, however as they continue to push northward along Yemen’s coast, there is a likelihood of potential shore-to-ship, or water-borne attacks, or retaliatory responses. This could result in disruption of shipping routes, or possible damage to vessels.

Ship owners and masters are urged stay abreast of the conflict and to carry out a risk assessment prior to entering Bab al Mandab or Yemeni waters. Seek up-to-the-moment, reliable information from local sources and remain vigilant. Crew members are urged to report unusual or potentially hostile activity to coalition naval forces via the following methods:

VHF: Channel 16

E-mail: cusnc.bwc@me.navy.mil

Phone: 011-973-1785-3879

All vessels must adhere to UN and Coalition-led inspections.

United Nations Inspections

The UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism (UNVIM) is operational for commercial imports to Yemen.

Shipping companies or owners delivering to ports not under the control of the Government of Yemen must apply for permits upon departing from the port of origin of their cargo. Yemen-based importers/traders are required to submit this notification form. More information about the UNVIM program is available here: https://www.vimye.org/home.

Vessels applying to go to ports under the control of the Government of Yemen need obtain permission for entry from the Yemeni Ministry of Transport. This should be done through the ship’s agent and/or receivers prior to the vessel’s arrival. The form should be completed by the ship’s master and sent directly to the Ministry of Transport.

Saudi Coalition Inspections

All vessels calling at Yemeni ports will only be allowed to enter Yemeni territorial waters following an inspection by the Saudi Arabian coalition forces. Upon arrival outside Bab Al-Mandab, the shipmaster should call the naval forces of the Saudi Arabian coalition by VHF on channel 16 for the arrival registration, and indicate his location (ideally three miles from Bab Al Mandab). Coalition authorities will advise on the anchor position until they provide final approval to enter the port. This procedure will not take more than 48 hours.

Coalition inspectors do not conduct investigation with the crew; contact will be with the ship’s master or Chief Officer about the cargo and documents. Once the vessel is permitted into Yemeni ports, the Master will be required to call port control by VHF on channel 14 or 16 for the arrival registration. The shipmaster will be advised the anchor position until the Harbour master confirms berthing prospects.

Coalition forces require AIS to be kept on at all times. The situation is subject to change and vessels should check frequently with local sources for any changes.

French Presidential Election: Hamon Wins Socialist Party Primary

On Sunday 29 January, France’s Socialists picked left-winger Benois Hamon as their candidate for president, however it is unlikely that them over will help them with the election. It could however boost the campaign of popular independent centrist Emmanuel Macron.

With 60 percent of the votes in the Socialists’ primary counted, the ex-education minister had won 58.65 percent against his rival Manuel Valls, a former prime minister who is closer to the centre ground and who embraces pro-business policies. The Socialists, which have been weakened and divided after the deeply unpopular presidency of Francois Hollande, have been given next to no chance of getting beyond the first round of the election in April. However by choosing the 49-year-old Hamon on Valls, they have given Macron a big group of middle-ground voters to aim at and a better chance of beating his close rivals on the right and far-right.

Sunday’s results have also shown the deep fractures in the Socialist camp. It takes the party back to the traditional pro-worker roots, which got Hollande elected in 2012 and it rejects the U-turn that he made mid-way through his mandate – the as-yet unsuccessful bid to jump-start growth and jobs by forcing through business-friendly reforms. Analysts are now warning that if Hamon fails to make an impact on the campaign, where the Socialist candidate trails behind four others in opinion polls, it could lead to the party having very little say for the next five years or even lead to tis breaking-up.

The Socialist primary effectively provided the last candidate for the election and the battle lines are now sharply drawn in the race for the two-stage election, which will be held on 23 April and 7 May. Conservative Francois Fillon, the Republicans’ candidate, and far-right leader Marine Le pen are still seen by opinion polls as being able to meet in the May runoff. However Fillon’s campaign has been thrown of track by a press report accusing him of employing his wife as a parliamentary assistant on a big salary without doing any work. He has denied the charges. Opinion polls have also shown that the campaign of Mr Macron is also gathering momentum, with analysts noting that he could still upset the balance. Th centrist former economy ministers says that he wants to bridge the Left and the Right and has shunned any party patronage. Political campaigners have indicated that the Socialists’ choice of Hamon, a traditional left-winger, will only favor Macron’s campaign, noting that supporters of the business-friendly policies, who like Macron has steered centrist policies, are likely to give their vote now to the popular former banker.

Trump Announces that NAFTA “Renegotiations” with Canada and Mexico to Start Soon

US President Donald Trump has stated that he will soon begin “renegotiating” the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with his Canadian and Mexican counterparts.

According to the newly sworn-in president, meetings have been scheduled with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto. The White House website states that if Canada and Mexico refuse to accept a renegotiation of the agreement that provides a “fair deal” for American workers, then the US will move to withdraw from it.

Speaking at a ceremony to swear in senior White House staff, President Trump also stated that he would tak with Mexican President Pena Nieto about immigration and and border security in a meeting that the White House says will take place on 31 January. No date has been given for a meeting between Mr Trump and Mr Trudeau.

Meanwhile on 21 January, President Pena Nieto’s office disclosed that the Mexican leader had called Mr Trump to congratulate him. In a statement, the Mexican president “reiterated the strategic priority of bilateral ties…and expressed his interest in maintaining an open dialogue.” President Trump meanwhile has stated that “Mexico has been terrific. The president has been really very amazing.” In regards to the NAFTA renegotiations, President Trump stated, “I think we are going to have a very good result for Mexico, for the United States, for everybody.”

President Pena Nieto has faced criticism in Mexico for lacking a clear plan of action to deal with President Trump’s threats, which include building a massive border wall at Mexico’s expense and imposing a tax on Mexican imports. Protests were held on 20 January outside a Ford showroom in Mexico City after the car company cancelled a US $1.6 billion plant that it had planned on building in Mexico.

What is the NAFTA Agreement?

The North American Free Trade Agreement came into effect between the US, Canada and Mexico in 1994, when Bill Clinton was president. The agreement effectively created one of the world’s largest free trade zones by reducing or eliminating tariffs on most products. The pact was meant to benefit small businesses by lowering costs and reducing bureaucracy in a bid to facilitate buying and selling abroad. However whether it has ultimately helped or harmed Americans has been hotly debated. In 2015, the Congressional Research Service, which provides independent analysis, stated that “in reality, NAFTA did not cause the huge job losses feared by the critics or the large economic gains predicted by supporters,” adding that “the net overall effect of NAFTA on the US economy appears to have been relatively modest, primarily because trade with Canada and Mexico accounts for a small percentage of US GDP.”

Donald Trump Protests Attract Millions Across the US and the World

Over the past weekend, millions of protesters took to the streets of cities in the United States and around the world to rally against the new US President Donald Trump.

Larger numbers of demonstrators than expected turned out for the more than 600 rallies that were held worldwide. The aim was principally to highlight omen’s rights, which activists believe to be under threat from the new administration.

The biggest rally held in the US was in the capital Washington, where city officials estimated that more than 500,000 people attended the protest. This figure far exceeded the 200,000 that had been originally expected by organizers of the Women’s March on Washington. By most estimates, it also surpassed the crowd at Friday’s presidential inauguration. The protesters in the nation’s capital heard speeches from actresses Scarlet Johansson, America Ferrera, as well as from Ashley Judd, Gloria Steinem and Michale Moore, amongst others. A planned march to the White House proved impossible as the entire route was filled with demonstrators.

Large crowds were also reported at other US protests. So many turned out in Chicago – some 150,000 – that a planned march had to called off and the event declared a rally. Streets were also overflowing in Los Angeles. Huge crowds were also reported in New York, Seattle, Boston and Miami, some of the venues for about 300 nationwide protests.

Globally, protests were also held. Organizers of a London rally stated that between 80,000 and 100,000 people had taken part there. Belfast, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester and Bristol were amongst the other UK cities that held protests. Anti-Trump marches took place earlier in Australia, New Zealand and in several Asian cities. Barcelona, Rome, Amsterdam, Geneva, Budapest, Prague, Paris and Berlin were among the European cities that took part.

Meanwhile, President Trump used his first full day in office to visit the CIA’s headquarters, where he said that he was “1,000%” behind the spy agency’s employees. He began the day with an inter-faith service at Washington National Cathedral before arriving at the CIA’s headquarters in Langley, Virginia. During the election campaign, Mr Trump had sharply criticized the intelligence agencies over their stance on alleged Russian involvement in the presidential election. He also accused the media of being dishonest in its reporting of the size of the crowd at his inauguration on 20 January. The newly sworn in president however did not refer to Saturday’s protests.

The president’s team has also been quick to overhaul the White House website, with the revamp replacing Barack Obama’s policies with Mr Trump’s new agenda. The new administration lists only six issues on the website: energy, foreign police, jobs and growth, military, law enforcement and trade deals. Critics have complained that it made no mention of civil rights, healthcare, climate change or LGBT rights.