MS Risk Blog

CIA Releases 13 Million Pages of Declassified Documents Online

This month, the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) released about 13 million pages of declassified documents online. The full archive is made up of almost 800,000 files, which had previously only been accessible at the National Archives in Maryland.

The move came after lengthy efforts from freedom of information advocates and a lawsuit against the CIA. Documents that have been released online include the papers of Henry Kissinger, who served as secretary of state under presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, as well as several hundred thousands of pages of intelligence analysis and science research and development.

The more unusual records that have been released are documents from the Stargate Project, which dealt with psychic powers and extrasensory perception. Those include records of testing on celebrity psychic Uri Geller in 1973, when he was already a well-established performer. Memos detail how Mr Geller was able to partly replicate pictures drawn in another room with varying, but sometimes precise, accuracy, leading the researches to write that he “demonstrated his paranormal perceptual ability in a convincing and unambiguous manner.”

While most of the information has technically been publically available since the mid-1990s, it has been very difficult to access ass the records were only available on four computers located in the back of a library at the National Archives in Maryland, between 09:00 and 16:30 each day.

ELN Announces Readiness to Call Bilateral Ceasefire with Government

Late last month, Colombia’s second largest rebel group, the ELN, announced that it was ready to call a bilateral ceasefire with the Colombian government while they negotiate an end to five decades of war.

According to the National Liberation Army’s (ELN) negotiator Aureliano Carbonell, “we are willing to have a bilateral ceasefire from the beginning…That would help create another climate to the peace process; send the nation a positive message.” He went on to say that the ELN would allow former President Alvaro Uribe’s participation in the talks, adding “we agree that Uribe, or a representative, participates at the negotiating table. Peace is made with adversaries and Uribe leads the biggest war mongering sector.” Uribe is the strongest opponent of the FARC accord and demands that rebel commanders are jailed for their crimes.   Juan Camil Restrepo, chief government negotiator, has said that he will seek a “de-escalation” of the conflict.

The government and the ELN will begin formal peace talks in Ecuador on 7 February, once the insurgent group frees a kidnapped politician and authorities pardon two jailed rebels. The sit down will effectively end three years of back and forth between the two sides. Officials are also hoping that it will stop a conflict that has pitted leftist rebels against right-wing paramilitaries and the military, killing over 220,000.

Any early bilateral ceasefire would contrast with the FARC talks, which stretched for four years in Cuba and which were conducted mostly amidst fighting and bomb attacks. A bilateral ceasefire was only called in the final stages of the talks.

The Middle East’s Reaction to President Donald Trump’s Travel Ban

On 27 January, the US president Donald Trump signs an executive order, entitled “Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States”, which places 90-day bans on arrivals from seven Muslim-majority countries: Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen, and suspended the admission of all refugees for 120 days. Trump has said his travel ban is designed to reduce the risk of terror attacks in the US.

Iran has issued a strong statement condemning Trump’s executive order and has warned that it will take legal, political and reciprocal measures. The country’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, warned the ban will only “serve as a great gift to extremists and their supporters.” Iran’s ministry said that the decision by the US government to impose restrictions on the travel of Muslims to the US “though temporarily for three months – is a clear insult to the Islamic world, and especially to the great nation of Iran.” Iran have said they will take “reciprocal measures in order to safeguard the rights of its citizens until the time of the removal of the insulting restrictions of the United States against Iranian nationals.”

Iraq’s Foreign Ministry expressed its “regret and astonishment” over the ban, saying it was unfortunate the decision had been made, despite the two nations achieving victories in their joint fight against IS. “The decision by the US is arbitrary”, Intisar al-Jabbouri, a member of parliament from northern Iraq said. “The Iraqi government has the right to reciprocate.” A reciprocal ban could impact American aid workers as well as contractors and journalists currently working in the nation. Additionally, some 5000 US military personnel aiding in the fight against IS could be affected. A senior analyst at the Institute for the Study of War said, “if Iraq were to ban US citizens from travelling to Iraq, it would have devastating consequences for our fight against IS, al-Qaeda and other terrorist organisations.”

Syria has yet to release an official response, however state-run SANA media has highlighted international criticism of the ban.

Saudi Arabia has not publicly taken a position on the ban, however, its national airline, Saudi Arilines, released a statement saying citizens from the seven affected countries “will not be permitted to travel with Saudi Airlines.”

Turkey’s Deputy Prime Minister, Mehmet Simsek, said refugees are welcome in Turkey. He tweeted “we’d happily welcome global talent not allowed back into USA.”

Yemen’s Saudi-allied government released a statement saying that Trump’s ban supports radicals. The foreign ministry said, “We resent the US ban… such decisions support the stance of extremists and sow divisions.” Authorities controlled by the Iran-allied Houthi group said attempts to “classify Yemen or its citizens as a possible source of terrorism are illegal and illegitimate.” A statement from the Yemeni Embassy in Cairo said the US is now unfairly barring citizens fleeing a country where US forces are engaged in a fierce fight against terror.

Five Previous Military Interventions in West Africa

West African states have a long history of sending their military forces to intervene in neighbouring countries, under the umbrella of a regional cooperation bloc.

Created in 1975, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) focuses mainly on resolving regional conflicts. The group has fifteen members, of which eight are francophone (Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo); five are Anglophone (The Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone); and two are Portuguese speaking (Cape Verde and Guinea-Bissau). The organization is dominated politically and economically by regional powerhouse Nigeria.

In the case of The Gambia, where President Yahya Jammeh has refused to stand down after losing the 1 December 2016 presidential election, the bloc has thrown its support behind the new President Adama Barrow.

Here is a look at the five main foreign interventions that have been carried out since 1990:

MALI

On 11 January 2013, following a United Nations Security Council resolution, the bloc authorises the immediate deployment of an intervention force that aims to help Mali retake its Islamist-controlled north. On the same day, the French military launched Operation Serval to back the Malian army and drive back the Islamists, who are pushing south towards the capital, Bamako. The West African force comprises of 6,300 men, including 2,000 from Chad, which is not an ECOWAS member. The Chadian soldiers were on the frontline alongside French soldiers in fighting the insurgents. On 1 July 2013, the ECOWAS force is absorbed by the UN’s MINUSMA stabilization force in Mali, which is currently 13,000 strong.

GUINEA-BISSAU

West African troops deployed to Guinea-Bissau in May 2012 in order to help the political transition after one of the country’s many coups. They have since served with a mandate to protect public figures and institutions. The force consists of more than 600 police officers and paramilitary gendarmes from Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Niger, Senegal and Togo. Already in February 1999, a lightly armed ECOWAS force was deployed to the country in a bid to help resolve the crisis. The force however withdrew several months later after failing to prevent a resumption of fighting and the overthrow of the head of state.

LIBERIA

In August 1990, ECOWAS deployed a force of several hundred men to Liberia to intervene in a civil war that had ignited eight months earlier. The ECOWAS Ceasefire Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) quickly grew to nearly 20,000 soldiers. Although it was generally described as a peacekeeping force, ECOMOG was soon called on to take more responsibilities for maintaining order. In early 1997, more than seven years after the war began, ECOMOG carried out a major disarmament operation, which effectively paved the way for multi-party elections that were held in July of that year. The last ECOMOG soldiers left Liberia in October 1999.

In August 2003, a new ECOWAS mission, known as ECOMIL, was deployed to the capital Monrovia, which had been under siege by rebels for three months. The force, which was restricted to some 3,500 soldiers, was unable to deploy across the whole of the country, resulting it in transferring its contingent to the United Nations.

SIERRA LEONE 

ECOMOG’s Nigerian contingent drives a 1998 – 1998 military junta, the Revolutionary United Front (RUF), from Freetown and reinstates President Ahmed Tejan Kabbah. On 6 January 1999, the RUF invaded Freetown. IT was expelled two weeks later by ECOMOG troops. The West African intervention force, which has up to 11,000 men stationed in Sierra Leone, officially winds up its mission in May 2000 and is replace by the UN peacekeeping force, which was formed to guarantee the Lome peace accord of July 1999, which ended the civil war.

IVORY COAST

A 1,300-strong West African force is deployed in January 2003 after a military rebellion, which effectively cuts Ivory Coast in two. In 2004, the soldiers are integrated into the UN’s mission in the country.

Islamic State Group “Lost Quarter of Territory” in 2016

According to new analysis, the so-called Islamic State (IS) group lost almost a quarter of its territory in 2016.

Security and defense analysts IHS Markit have reported that last year, the terrorist group gave up almost 18,000 sq km (6,900 sq miles), with its territory effectively reducing to some 60,400 sq km, just less than the size of the US state of Florida. According to IHS Markit, the 23% reduction in IS-held territory in 2016 followed on from a 14% loss in 2015.

IHS Market predicted the recapture of Mosul by Iraqi government forces by the middle of the year, nothing that the stronghold of Raqqa would be more difficult to recapture. What is also troubling is that IS retook the city of Palmyra in December 2016.

The report also highlighted what it said was a major theological dispute within IS, between those following mainstream doctrine and those taking a more radical interpretation, noting that this could raise the risk of defections or even cause an internal break-up.