MS Risk Blog

Republicans Call for Investigation of Flynn’s Contact with Russia

Last week, leading members of the United States Republican Party joined calls for a wide investigation into the former national security adviser’s links with Russia.

On 13 February, Michael Flynn resigned from his post over claims that he discussed US sanctions with Russia before President Donald Trump took office. On 14 February, a White House spokesman disclosed that President Trump knew weeks ago that there were problems with the Russia phone calls, however calls for an independent investigation have encountered a cold response from some senior Republicans.

The development came as the New York Times reported that phone records and intercepted calls show that members of Mr Trump’s presidential campaign, as well as other Trump associates, had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election. However, officials spoken to by the newspaper have disclosed that they had not yet seen evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia on the hacking of the Democratic National Committee or to influence the election. As well as an FBI investigation into the matter, both the Senate and House intelligence committees are already examining Russian involvement in the election, though it currently remains unclear whether the latest claims will be included in their scope.

Mr Flynn stood down over allegations that he discussed US sanctions with a Russian envoy in December 2016, before Mr Trump took office. The conversations took place about the time that then-President Barack Obama was imposing retaliatory measures on Russia following reports that it attempted to sway the US election in Mr Trump’s favor. Mr Flynn could have broken the law, known as the Logan Act, by conducting US diplomacy as a private citizen before he was appointed as national security advisers.

Initially, Mr Flynn, who is a retired lieutenant-general, denied having discussed sanctions with Ambassador Sergei Kislyak, while Vice President Mike Pence publicly denied the allegations on his behalf. While the White House admitted that it had been warned about the contacts on 26 January, President Trump initially concluded that Mr Flynn had not broken any law. According to White House spokesman Sean Spicer, White House lawyers then conducted a review and questioned Mr Flynn before reaching the same conclusion as the president, however by that point the trust had gone. On 14 February, White House Counsellor Kellyanne Conway disclosed that in the end, it was misleading the vice-president that made the situation unsustainable. According to US media, Mr Flynn was also reportedly questioned by FBI agents in his first days as national security adviser.

In an interview conducted with the conservative website the Daily Caller on 13 February, and published on 14 February, Mr Flynn disclosed that he “crossed no lines” in his conversation with the ambassador, adding that he discussed the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats over alleged hacking ahead of of the lection, but “it wasn’t about sanctions.” He went on to say that he was concerned that the apparently classified information had been linked, adding “in some of these cases, you’re talking about stuff that’s taken off of a classified system nad given to a reporters…That’s a crime.”

On 14 February, US House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes told reporters that he wanted to examine the leaks, stating that the FBI should explain why Mr Flynn’s conversation had been recorded. The Senate’s second-ranking Republican, John Cornyn, and other Republican senators have also called for an investigation into Mr Trump’s connection with Russian officials. Republican John McCain, who is the Chairman of the senate Armed Services Committee, disclosed that Mr Flynn’s resignation was a “troubling indication of the dysfunction of the current national security apparatus,” which raised questions about Mr Trump’s intentions towards Russia.

While Mr Flynn has resigned, Democrat Adam Schiff, a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, disclosed that his departure will not end questions about contacts between the president’s campaign and Russia. However there are various ways that these questions could be answered. Two Democratic members of the House of Representatives have demanded a classified briefing to Congress on Michael Flynn by the justice department and FBI. Several House Democrats had already called on Oversight Committee Chairman Jason Chaffetz to launch an investigation into Mr Flynn’s ties to Russia.

Glass Wall to Protect Eiffel Tower from Terror Attacks

Officials announced this month that the Eiffel Tower in Paris, France is to have a 2.5m-high (8 ft) wall of reinforced glass built around it as protection against terror attacks. The wall will be designed to stop individuals or vehicles from storming the site.

The Paris mayor’soffice has disclosed that th wall will replace metal fences, which were put up for the Euro 2016 football tournament. The project, if it is approved, is expected to cost about 20 million euros (US $21 million) and work on it should begin later this year. The project will also involve reorganizing pathways around the tower.

The French capital has been on high alert since attacks by jihadists in November 2015 left 130 people dead. Last July, 86 people were killed when a lorry ploughed through a crowd celebrating Bastille Day in the southern city of Nice.

According to the assistant mayor for tourism, Jean-Francois Martins, the Eiffel Tower, which is one of France’s most famous landmarks, attracts more than six million visitors each year. He disclosed that the terror threat remains high in Paris and the most vulnerable sites, led by the Eiffel Tower, must be the object of special security measures. He went on to say that itwill replace the metal grids to the north and south with glass panels, which will allow Parisians and visitors a very pleasant view of the monument, adding we have three aims to improve the look, make access easier and strengthen the protection of visitors and staff.

News of the glass wall project comes after earlier this month a man wielding two machetes attacked soldiers at Paris’s Louvre Museum. President Francois Hollande has since stated that there is little doubt that the incident was a terrorist act.

Canada’s Trudeau Choses Low Key Approach to New US President

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is opting a low-key approach to dealing with United States President Donald Trump – seeking to avoid clashes while indirectly signalling the two leaders’ difference to a domestic audience.

Insiders have acknowledged that the cautious strategy could anger progressives whose support helped bring Mr Trudeau to power in 2015, however they say that for now, he has no choice but to maintain a low key approach, as Canada sends 75 percent of its exports to the US and could suffer if it were to be targeted by Trump’s administration.

While Mr Trudeau maintained a close friendship with former President Barack Obama, Canadian prime ministers have not always had close ties with US presidents. Insiders however have noted that few in Ottawa have experienced anything like Mr Trump. While Canada regards the US as its closest ally, Mr Trudeau has yet to visit Washington to meet with Mr Trump. According to people familiar with the matter, a visit tentatively scheduled at the beginning of this month was cancelled after a shooter killed six Muslims in a Quebec mosque. No new date has been set.

According to Michael Kergin, a former Canadian ambassador to Washington, Mr Trudeau’s caution has been wise, stating “he’s been playing it pretty well by restraining the temptation to be publicly critical of the president.” Kergin went on to say that Mr Trudeau was also right not to follow British Prime Minister Theresa May in rushing to Washington to push for closer ties only to watch President Trump make an unpopular move on immigration after she left.

Mr Trudeau however has taken indirect shots – when Mr Trump signed orders banning people from seven Muslim-majority countries, Mr Trudeau tweeted that Canada was open to those fleeing war. Furthermore, while his chief spokeswoman blasted US network Fox News late last month for a tweet falsely claiming that the Quebec gunman was of Moroccan origin, she said nothing publicly when Trump’s spokesman said that the attack on Muslims showed why it was important to suspend immigration from Muslim nations. This approach however has angered many in Canada, including the opposition New Democrats, who have called on the Prime Minister to denounce Mr Trump’s “racist” immigration policy. In turn, members of Mr Trudeau’s team have acknowledged that over time, the Liberals could lose support before a 2019 election if the prime minister is deemed not tot be standing up for Canadian values, such as inclusiveness.

Chinese Cyber Espionage Against the U.S. Non-State

Allegations of Chinese cyber attacks on U.S. interests, both state and non-state are not new phenomena. Each red dot in the above map shows a successful alleged Chinese attempt between 2010 and 2014 to steal U.S. corporate and military data. Some of the U.S. victims of these attacks have been Google, Lockheed Matin, the U.S. government and the U.S. miitary. Over 600 dots are peppered across the U.S. industrial centers in the northeast and the west coast as well as other places in the country. Nearly 50 cyber attacks have occurred in California alone. Some examples of the kind of data the U.S. has lost to cyber espionage have been specificiations of hybrid cars, formulas for pharmaceutical products, data on critical U.S. infrastructure such as electrical power, telecommunications and internet backbone, and details including U.S. military and civilian air traffic controls systems.

As cyber espionage has been a persistent threat to U.S. enterprises, perhaps, looking at the problem in monetary terms could provide an easily understandable perspective on the magnitude of the matter. Studies show that cyber crime will be a $2.1 trillion dollar problem by 2019. Also, the U.S. dependence on global supply chain and business outsourcing leaves it highly vulnerable to cyber attacks. In 2014, cyber attacks, alone, have cost on average the following to U.S. companies:

• $8.6 million per company in U.S. retail;
• $20.8 million per company in U.S. financial services;
• $ 14.5 million per company in U.S. technology sector
• $12.7 million per company in U.S. communications industry

While this may already look bad enough for U.S. businesses, what could make it worse is the new Chinese cyber security law, which will be effective in June 2017. In the midst of some degrees of ambiguity in the law, the following surface as critical concerns for the U.S. enterprises operatiing in China:

• The law requires that the Chinese government investigators be given full access to companies’ data if wrong-doing is suspected;
• The law requires that business information and data on Chinese citizens be kept in domestic servers and cannot be transferred overseas without prior permission;

Some analysts judge that foreign companies being required to store data in domestic servers leave potentials for the Chinese local industries to gain competitive advantage over their foreign rivals. Although the U.S. and China have struck up a cyber security agreement that forbids theft of intellectual property and economic espionage, analysts cannot entirely dismiss the possibility that the U.S. military will continue to be an attractive target of Chinese cyber espionage.

North Korean Leader’s Half-Brother Mysteriously Killed in Malaysia

Officials announced on 15 February that a female suspect has been arrested in Malaysia in connection with the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s half-brother.

Quoting police, Malaysian newspaper reports indicate that Kim Jong-name was attacked on 13 February morning while waiting at the budget terminal of Kuala Lumpur International Airport for a 10:00 flight to Macau. Exactly how the attack unfolded remains unclear, however officials and witnesses have variously said that he was splashed with a chemical or had a cloth placed over his face. Earlier reports spoke of a “spray” being used or a needle. He died on route to the hospital.

Local police have disclosed that the woman was arrested at the airport in the capital Kuala Lumpur, where Kim Jong-nam was targeted in an apparent poisoning on 13 February. She was in possession of a Vietnamese travel document. Malaysian police have disclosed that the arrested suspect, who was alone, was identified from CCTV footage taken at the airport. They have named her as Doan Thi Huong, 28, adding that they are looking for “a few” other suspects.

South Korean media have widely reported that two women, said to be North Korean agents, were involved and fled the airport in a taxi. Malaysian police however have not confirmed these details. A grain image broadcast in South Korea and Malaysia depicts a woman wearing a white t-shirt with the letters “LOL” written on the front.

Malaysia has also yet to formally confirm that the dead man is Kim Jong-nam, as he was travelling under a different name – Kim Chol. However the South Korean government has said that it is certain that it is him. Furthermore, the country’s spy agency is said to have told lawmakers that they believe Mr Kim was poisoned. South Korean spy chief Lee Byung-ho told South Korean MPs that Pyongyang had wanted to kill Kim Jong-nam for several years, but that he was being protected by China. Unnamed US government sources have also disclosed that they believe he was poisoned by North Korean agents. Some analysts however are questioning what motive Kim Jong-un would have to kill his estranged half-brother, given the risk of the operation and possibilities for embarrassment, and the fact that he was not seen as a threat to Mr Kim’s leadership. However it has been reported that Mr Kim was reportedly targeted for assassination in the past. In 2012, a North Korean spy was jailed in South Korea. He is said to have admitted to trying to organize a hit-and-run accident targeting Kim Jong-un. North Korea has also had a long history of sending agents overseas to carry out assassinations, attacks and kidnappings.

If it is confirmed that this was the North Korean leader’s half-brother, then it would be the most high-profile death linked to North Korea since Kim Jong-un’s uncle, Chang Song-thaek, who was executed in 2013. While North Korea has not commented on the death, officials from the country’s Malaysian embassy have been visiting the hospital in Kuala Lumpur where Mr Kim’s body has been taken.

Who is Kim Jong-nam?

This is not the first time that Mr Kim has travelled under an assumed identify: he was caught in 2001 trying to enter Japan using a fake passport. At the time, he told officials that he had been planning to visit Tokyo Disneyland. That incidents is thought by some analysts to have spoilt Kim Jong-nam’s chances of succeeding his father, Kim Jong-Il, who died in 2011.

After being bypassed in favor of his youngest half-brother for succession, Kim Jon-nam kept a low profile, spending most of his time overseas in Macau, mainland China and Singapore. He later spoke out against his family’s dynastic control of North Korea and in a book in 2012, he was quoted as stating that he believed his younger half-brother lacked leadership qualities. He however had said that he was not interested in assuming the leadership himself.