MS Risk Blog

Somalia Elects New President

On 8 February, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo was elected Somali’s new president, in the second presidential election to take place in the Horn of Africa nation since 1991. The election was held amidst tight security due to ongoing security threats by al-Shabaab.

Below is a timeline of developments over the past 25 years in the war-torn country:

President Barre deposed, chaos ensues

• In January 1991, President Mohamed Siad Barre, who had been in power since 1969, is deposed by rebels and flees the country. The rebel alliance soon falls apart and clan-based fighting breaks out later that year.
• From December 1992 to 1995, the international community intervenes with 38,000 troops in a bid to end a major famine and restore peace. The United Nations’ mission however ends in failure with the deaths of eighteen American soldiers.

New Government Barred from Mogadishu

• In 2005, a new government formed the previous year after protracted talks in neighbouring Kenya enters the country, however it cannot reach the capital, Mogadishu, which is under the control of warlords. The authorities opt to set up their headquarters in Baidoa, which is located west of the capital.
• In 2006, the Islamic Court movements, which is accused by the United States of harbouring al-Qaeda extremists, captures Mogadishu after heavy fighting.

Al-Shabaab Emerges and Joins al-Qaeda

• In December 2006, Ethiopia, with Washington’s support, invades Somalia. Al-Shabaab, the Islamic Courts’ armed wing, emerges to stage a bloody insurgency in the capital and in the southern region of the country.
• In 2007, an African Union (AU) force is deployed in Mogadishu to back up a transitional federal government, which comes to the capital.
• Ethiopia withdrawals from Somalia in 2009, however just days later, al-Shabaab seizes control of Baidoa while the United Nations holds talks in Djibouti with the entire Somali parliament. Islamist leader Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed becomes president of a transitional administration.
• In 2010, al-Shabaab proclaims its allegiance to al-Qaeda and claims responsibility for a double attack, which kills 76 people in Kampala. The attack is in retaliation for Uganda’s participation in the AU force in Somalia.
• Au troop drive al-Shabaab militants out of the capital city in August 2011 however the militants continue to control rural areas and launched a number of attacks in the capital city.
• In October 2011, an al-Shabaab suicide bombing targeting a ministry in Mogadishu kills 82 people. Later that month, Kenyan troops cross the border into southern Somali, while Ethiopian forces arrive in November.
• Al-Shabaab targets the Westgate Mall in Nairobi, Kenya on 21 September 2013, where at lest 67 people are killed and around twenty go missing. The group states that the attack is in retaliation for Kenya’s military intervention in Somalia.
• In April 2015, another al-Shabaab attack kills 148 people at the university in Garissa, eastern Kenya. Kenya continues to see a number of attacks, particularly in the border regions with Somalia.

Parliamentary and Presidential Elections

• A new Somali parliament is sworn in on 20 August 2012 following the adoption of a provisional constitution.
• The new parliament, which is comprised of deputies nominated by 135 clan elders, elects Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as president on 10 September. It is the first presidential election to take place in Somalia since Barre was deposed in 1991.
• From October to December 2016, around 14,000 clan-based delegate electors – from a total population of 12 million – vote in a second parliamentary election.
• On 27 December 2016, a new batch of 275 Somali deputies take the oat of office.
• On 8 February 2017, former premier Farmajo is elected president after incumbent Mohamud admits defeat in a second round of voting by lawmakers.

French Presidential Election: Macron Seen Beating Le Pen According to Latest Poll

According to an opinion poll that was published on 6 February, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and independent centrist Emmanuel Macron are set to make it through to the presidential election’s second round in May, with Macron comfortably winning the runoff.

The IFOP rolling poll of voting intentions indicated Le Pen garnering 25.5 percent of the vote in the 23 April first round of voting, up 1.5 percent since 1 February, with Macron getting 20.5 percent, up 0.5 percent over the same period. Conservative candidate Francois Fillon, who is in the midst of a political scandal, placed third with 18.5 percent, down from 21 percent. Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon has also lost momentum since his nomination in a primary vote and was not seen gathering 15.5 percent of the votes, down from 18 percent on 1 February.

On Monday, Fillon vowed to fight on for the presidency despite a damaging scandal involving taxpayer-funding payments to his wife for work, which a newspaper alleges she did not do. Speaking at a news conference in Paris, Mr Fillon, 62, apologised for what he said was his error of judgement regarding the employment of family members. While he disclosed that his wife’s work as parliamentary assistant over fifteen years had been genuine and legal, he noted that the campaign of “unfounded allegations” against him and his family would not make him abandon his bid for the presidency as the nominee of the centre-right. He stated, “there is no plan B,” dismissing reports that other centre-right candidates were being lined up to replace him, and adding “I am the only candidate who can bring about a national recovery. I am the candidate of the Right and I am here to win.” He announced that he would launch a new phase of his campaign from Tuesday. Mr Fillon, a former prime minister, called the news conference after members of his own party, The Republicans, urged him to quit the race to give the party time to find a replacement candidate. He will hop that his apology and denial of wrongdoing rally the party and voters behind him. Prior to the scandal surfacing in a weekly satirical newspaper nearly two weeks ago, opinion polls had shown Mr Fillon to be the clear favourite to win the election over Le Pen. Since then, his approval ratings have plummeted and he is now seen as failing to reach the second round of voting in May.

The stakes are high for France’s Right, which is battling to return to power after five years of Socialist rule under President Francois Hollande.

Colombia and ELN Begin Peace Negotiations

Last week, members of Colombia’s ELN left-wing rebel group and government negotiators began talks seeking to end more than five decades of conflict.

The negotiations were launched at a ceremony in the capital of Ecuador, Quito, where the talks will be held. Ecuador is hosting the first round of negotiations, with Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Norway and Venezuela acting as guarantors.   The chief ELN negotiator, Pablo Beltran, has urged both sides to rally around the points that united them and to leave aside their differences.   He further called on the rebels to officially suspend its kidnapping policy during the negotiations. The ELN relies on the ransom obtained from kidnappings to finance its activities. Mr Beltran disclosed that peace would not be achieved through more repression, adding “we need a political solution. We are willing to take responsibility for the mistakes we have made but we expect the other side to do the same.

The top government representative, Juan Camilo Restrepo, meanwhile disclosed that he expected to draw from the lessons of the negotiations with the FARC in order to reach a peace accord with the ELN. Both officials however agreed that this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the country to achieve peace.

The ELN, or National Liberation Army, is Colombia’s second largest rebel group.   It was founded in 1964 with the stated aim of fighting Colombia’s unequal distribution of land and riches, which was inspired by the Cuban revolution of 1959.   The talks were initially due to begin at the end of October last year however they were delayed as the Colombian government refused to sit down for formal negotiations while the rebels still held Odin Sanchez, a former congressman. Mr Sanchez was released on 2 February 2017 while on 6 February, the group released a solider it had been holding hostage for two weeks. The soldier, Freddy Moreno, was handed over to delegates from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Arauca province.

The talks come just months after the Colombian government signed a peace agreement with Colombia’s largest rebel group, the FARC. In November 2016, the Colombian government signed a revised peace agreement with the country’s largest group, the FARC, after four years of negotiations in the Cuban capital, Havana. Members of the FARC have ben gathering in “transition zones,” where they are to demobilise and lay down their weapons under the supervision of United Nations monitors. According to government officials, the last of the FARC rebels are expected to reach the designated debilitation areas by 15 February.

France Once Again in the Grip of Islamic Terror

Last Friday (3 February), another attempted terrorist attack took place in Paris, when French soldiers shot and critically wounded a man who attacked them with a machete at the Louvre while shouting “Allah Akbar”. Reportedly, a group of four soldiers guarding the entrance of the Louvre shopping centre had refused him to entry with two backpacks. When the troops stopped him, he launched the attack, wounding one of the soldiers. Hundreds of visitors were inside the museum after the incident and were evacuated. According to the police, the man has been identified as Abdullah Reda Refaei al-Hamamy, a 29-year-old with Egyptian identity paper who arrived in France last month.

After initially refusing to talk, the man, who remains under arrest in hospital, has confirmed his identity. Agence France-Presse has reported that Hamamay had visited Turkey in 2015 and 2016. Afterwards, he entered in France on 26 January on a flight from Dubai and stayed at an apartment costing € 1,700 (£ 1,470) a week near the Champs Elysees that had been reserved last June, months before he applied for a tourist visa in October.
The man’s father, a retired Egyptian police general, said his son had never shown any signals of radicalisation. He said his son is a sale manager and also justified his stay in Paris as a business trip. According to his family, Hamamy was expected to go back to the Emirates soon, as he has a wife and a seven-months old son and they have accused French authorities of seeking to justify their shooting with false allegations.
No group has claimed the attempted attack so far, and no link to extremism was found during a search of the apartment. Moreover, after few days, Hamamy has broken the silence about his intentions, claiming that he acted of his own will and intended only to damage works of art at the gallery as a symbolic attack on France.
However, investigators do not fully believe his statements after they found out a series of tweets posted in Arabic few minutes be fore the assault was launched. In those posts, in which he exalted Allah and the creation of an Islamic State, he does not refer to ISIS by its Arabic acronym, Daesh, but used the phrase “Dawlat al-Islam”, which is commonly used to refer to the group’s territories by its supporters.
Egyptian officials, who are collaborating with French authorities, have declared that local security agencies are gathering information to help establish if he was a member of any militant groups or had been radicalised in the past. In the meantime, President Francois Holland has labelled the act as “clearly an act of terrorism” and prosecutors in Paris said they would ask judges to file preliminary charges of “attempted terrorist murder” and “terrorist criminal conspiracy”.
Since 2012 the country has struggled against Islamic terrorism, which has already caused 250 victims. A French mayor and member of the French National Assembly, Jaques Myard, has blamed the Schengen agreement, which allows traveling throughout much of the EU without border-controls. According to Mayard, France is in a dark place, as it has to face to threats: the threat of terrorists coming from abroad, and an internal threat, because of its large Muslims community. He reiterated that, although not all Muslims of course are radicals, over 10,000 of those could be radicalised across France. In those conditions it is impossible to really prevent anything, since it is impossible to have 100 per cent security everywhere. The only possible thing for citizens to do, Mayard added, is to be vigilant and always on guard, alerting the police every time they see something suspicious.

Security Advisory: Maritime – Gulf of Guinea (9 February 2017)

 Executive Summary

On 8 February 2017, the LPG tanker GAZ PROVIDENCE was attacked and boarded by pirates in the Bight of Bonny, 40 nautical miles south of Bonny Island, Nigeria. The vessel was approached by a motor skiff with armed men on board. The crew on board the vessel managed to send out a distress signal to the local authorities and the Nigerian Navy. The Nigerian navy dispatched the navy ship Okpabana to the scene, rescuing the vessel and all 21 crewmembers on board. All crewmembers have been reported safe. The pirates managed to flee the scene after stealing some valuables and cash. They did not cause sufficient damage to the vessel. The vessel headed to Port Harcourt, where it will be inspected before returning to service. An investigation of the incident is currently underway.

This incident comes after pirates kidnapped seven Russians and one Ukrainian crewmember after they attacked the cargo vessel BBC CARIBBEAN off the coast of Nigeria. The attack was confirmed late on 7 February 2017. 

Security Advisory

MS Risk continues to warn that the Gulf of Guinea region, and particularly waters off Nigeria, remain dangerous, and the threat of attack, hijacking and kidnapping remains very high.

Any vessels transiting this region are advised to remain on high alert at all times. Masters should increase watches and identify national assets in the region, such as warships or coast guard vessels that could be contacted in the event of an emergency. Crewmembers should remain vigilant and on the look out for any suspect vessels and actions should be taken in order to prepare all crewmembers in the event of an attack.

After several weeks of relative calm in this region, these two attacks are likely to encourage other pirate incidents.