MS Risk Blog

From bad to worse: Fleeing the Northern Triangle for Mexico

The contemporary security situation in Mexico is affected by various external factors. According to the UNHCRs international protection chief, the stream of refugees from the Northern Triangle of Central America constitutes one of these factors. The UN official, Volker Trk, described the situation as approaching crisis levels. For decades, Mexico has served as a place of transit for Central American migrants heading north. But in the last few years the reality has changed with an increasing number of people from the so-called Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, actually seeking asylum in Mexico. The inflow is increased even more due to the recent crackdown by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE) on illegal immigrants and the resulting increase in deportations back down south to the Northern Triangle and Mexico. Last year, Mexico received almost 9,000 new asylum applications, a 156 per cent increase in comparison to 2015. Since January 2015, the number of asylum applications filed has increased by more than eight per cent per month. Based on this trend, the UN Refugee Agency projects at least 20,000 additional asylum claims in Mexico in 2017. However, for those fleeing from extortion, forced recruitment and human rights abuses perpetrated by transnational organized crime groups and local criminal gangs, Mexico is not necessarily the Promised Land as violence in Americas southern neighbor is not particularly letting up. After years of falling homicide levels, Mexico is suffering a deteriorating security situation not seen since former president Felipe Calderon announced a war on drug gangs in 2007. Veracruz, home to rival cartels such as the Zetas and the Jalisco New Generation saw 1,258 registered homicides last year alone. This month, authorities confirmed the discovery of more than 250 bodies in what appears to be a drug cartel mass burial ground on the outskirts of the city of Veracruz. The clandestine graves are of such an industrial scale that backhoes or bulldozers were likely used in creating them and contain so many bodies that officials arent digging in some places because they dont have space for the remains. Another site south of the city of Veracruz where there were apparently also clandestine graves, is not being explored yet, because the morgues cant handle all the bodies. The industrial nature of the mass graves make it unlikely that authorities did not know about them. Meanwhile, the former governor of Veracruz, Javier Duarte is being sought over allegations he was involved in organized crime and money laundering. Elsewhere in Mexico, hidden graves have been found containing hundreds of bodies. In January, 56 bodies were found in a grave in the northern state of Nuevo Leon, where drug cartels vie for control of the routes toward the US. So, while the refugees are leaving a terrible situation behind, coming to Mexico might mean they are jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.

Syrian War: 465,000 Killed in Six Years of Fighting

This month, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is a British-based war monitor, reported that so far about 465,000 people have been killed and missing in Syrias ongoing civil war.

The war began six years ago on 15 March, with protests against President Bashar al-Assads government. Since then, it has dragged in global and regional powers, allowed the so-called Islamic State (IS) group to gain hold of huge tracts of territory and has caused the biggest refugee crisis since the Second World War.

The Observatory has reported that it had documented the deaths of more than 321,000 people since the beginning of the war, adding that more than 145,000 people have been reported as missing. The Observatory, which has used a network of contacts across the country in order to maintain a count of causalities since near the beginning of the conflict, states that amongst those killed are more than 96,000 civilians, adding that government forces and their allies killed more than 83,500 civilians, including more than 27,500 in air strikes and 14,600 under torture in prison. Rebel shelling killed more than 7,000 civilians. IS has killed more than 3,700 civilians, while air strikes by the US-led coalition have killed 920 civilians. Turkey, which is backing rebels in the northern region of the country, has killed more than 500 civilians. The Syrian government and Russia both deny targeting civilians or using torture or extrajudicial killings. Most rebel groups and Turkey also deny targeting civilians while the US led-coalition states that it tries hard to avoid civilian causalities and always investigates reports that it has done so.

French Election: Leading Candidates Clash in First TV Debate

The two leading candidates in the French presidential election clashed on Monday 21 March during a fiery TV debate.

Five candidates participated in Monday evenings debate: far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, centrist Emmanuel Macron, centre-right contender Francois Fillon, and left-wingers Benoit Hamon and Jean-Luc Melenchon. All five discussed the big issues for France, including jobs, terrorism and the countrys place in Europe.

Le Pen and Macron clashed over the full-body burkini swimsuit worn by some Muslim women, with Ms Le Pen stating that multiculturalism must end. Mr Macron accused the National Front leader of making enemies of Muslims in France. Throughout the debate, Mr Macron appeared to be keen to take on Ms Le Pen, arguing that the burkini was a public order matter and not a challenge to Frances tradition of secularism as Ms Le Pen has suggested. Last summer, a number of southern French resorts banned the swimsuit before Frances highest administrative court found that the ban breached fundamental freedoms.

During the debate, Mr Macron stated that he would change the countrys traditional political divisiveness, while Ms Le Pen said that she wanted a France that was not a vague region of the EU or subservient to Chancellor Angela Merkels Germany. She later vowed to stop all immigration. Meanwhile Mr Fillon stated that if was elected, he would be the president of what he called the national recovery. Mr Macron also appeared to take a swipe at Mr Fillon. After accusing Ms Le Pen of defamation, he stated that justice would prevail as it would in the case of certain presidential candidates. That was an apparent reference to the ongoing judicial investigation into allegations that Mr Fillon paid his wife hundreds of thousands of euros for parliamentary work that she did no do. Mr Fillon has denied the allegations and has refused to quit the race, stating that he is a victim of a political assassination. The candidates also clashed over how to tackle the unemployment situation, which has long stood at about 10%. In a bid to broaden her appeal, Ms Le pen called for a patriotic economy, which is a protectionist measure that favours French companies. Mr Fillon however stated that her plans would cause economic chaos. On the left, Mr Hamon called for the introduction of a universal basic income, which he said was the only innovative idea in the election campaign.

Focus groups have suggested that Mr Macron was the winner of the debate.

Voters will go to the polls on 23 April and if no candidate wins more than 50% of the votes, the two top contenders will go into a second round on 7 May. The latest Odoxa poll states that Mr Macron would lead first-round voting with 26.5 percent, just ahead of Ms Le pen on 26 percent, before beating her 64 36 in the run-off. Mr Fillon scored 19 percent of first-round voting intentions in the poll, confirming the task faced by the on-time frontrunner to revive a campaign that has been severely hit by the fraud investigation. A separate poll by Kantar Sofres-Onepoint showed a similar trend for the first round, with Mr Macron and Ms Lepen tied on 26 percent, ahead of Mr Fillon on 17 percent. The polls were taken before Mondays TV Debate.

On Saturday 18 March, the officials campaign period got under way when Frances Constitutional Council announced a list of eleven contenders who had met conditions to stand.

US Charges Russian Spies, Hackers in Yahoo Hack

The United States last week charged two Russian intelligence agents and two criminal hackers with masterminding the 2014 theft of 500 million Yahoo accounts in a move that marks the first time that the US government has criminally charged Russian spies with cyber offenses.

The 47-count Justice Department indictments on Wednesday 15 March included charges of conspiracy, computer fraud and abuse, economic espionage, theft of trade secrets, wire fraud, access device fraud and aggravated identify theft. The charges also paint a picture of the Russian security services as working hand-in-hand with cyber criminals, who helped spies further their intelligence goals in exchange for using the same exploits to make money. Speaking at a press conference to announce the charges, Acting Assistant Attorney General Mary McCord disclosed that the criminal conduct at issue, carried out and otherwise facilitated by officers from an FSB unit that serves as the FBIs point of contact in Moscow on cyber crime matters, is beyond the pale. Russias Federal Security Service (FSB) is the successor to the KGB. McCord further disclosed that the hacking campaign was awarded by the FSB in order to collect intelligence but that the two hackers used the collected information as an opportunity to line their pockets.

The indictment named the FSB officers involved as Dmitry Dokuchaev and his superior, Igor Sushchin, both of whom are in Russia. According to Russian news agency Interfax, Dokuchaev was arrested for treason in December. According to the Justice Department, the alleged criminals involved in the scheme include Alexsey Belan, who is amongst the FBIs most-wanted cyber criminals and was arrested in Europe in June 2013 however he escaped to Russia before he could be extradited to the US. Karim Baratov, who was born in Kazakhstan but also has Canadian citizenship, was also named in the indictment. The Justice Department disclosed that Baratov was arrested in Canada on 14 March. Officials in Toronto have confirmed the arrest. The US does not have an extradition treat with Russia, with McCord stating that she was hopeful that Russian authorities would cooperate in bringing criminals to justice. The US often charges cyber criminals with the intent of deterring future state-sponsored activity.

The charges announced last week are not related to the hacking of Democratic Party emails during the 2016 US presidential election. US intelligence agencies have stated that they were carried out by Russian spy services, including the FSB, in order to help the campaign of Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Yahoo disclosed when it announced the then-unprecedented breach last September, that it believed that the attack was state-sponsored. On Wednesday, the company stated that the indictment unequivocally shows that to be the case.

According to the indictment, in the 2014 breach, at least thirty million of the Yahoo accounts were the most seriously affected, with Belan being able to burrow deep into their accounts and taking user contact lists that were later used for a financially motivated spam campaign. The indictment went on to say that Belan also stole financial information, such as credit card numbers and gift cards. Yahoo had previously stated that about 32 million accounts had fallen victim to the deeper attack, which it said leveraged forged browser cookies to access accounts without the need for a password. According to Wednesdays indictment, FSB officers Sushchin and Dokuchaev also directed Baratov to use the information gained in the Yahoo breach to hack specific targets who possessed email accounts with other service providers, including Google. The incitement charged that when Baratov was successful, Dokuchaev would reward him with a bounty.

In December 2016, Yahoo announced another breach that occurred in 2013 and which affected 1 billion accounts. At the time, Special Agent Jack Bennett of the FBIs San Francisco Division disclosed that the 2013 breach is unrelated and that an investigation of that incident is ongoing. The hacks forced Yahoo to accept a discount of US $350 million in what had been a US $4.83 billion deal to sell its main assets of Verizon Communications Inc.

The charges come amidst a number of controversies relating to alleged Kremlin-backed hacking of the 2016 US presidential election and the possible links between Russian figures and associates of US President Donald Trump, as well as uncertainty about whether President Trump is willing to respond forcefully to aggression from Moscow in cyberspace and elsewhere.

EU Breathes Easier After Dutch Vote

Late on Wednesday 15 March, Prime Minister Mark Rutte stated that Dutch people rejected the wrong kind of populism, as he celebrated victory in the election.

The Prime Ministers centre-right VVD party lead positioned him for a third successive term as prime minister and easily beat the anti-immigration Freedom party of Geert Wilders. With all but two vote counts complete, the prime ministers party won 33 out of 150 seats a loss of eight seats from the previous parliament. The Freedom party came in second place with 20 seats, a gain of fiv, while the Christian Democrats (CDA) and the liberal D66 party, tied for third with 19 seats each. The Green-left party gained 14 seats, an increase of 10. The Labour Party (PvdA), which is the junior party in the governing coalition, suffered a historic defeat by winning only nine seats a loss of 29. Labours defeat appeared to signal that voters were shifting to the right, as many of the seats it lost did not go to other left-wing parties. Voter turnout was 80.2% – the highest for thirty years, with analysts saying that this may have benefited pro-EU and liberal parties.

The Dutch race was seen as a test of support for nationalist parties that have been gaining ground across Europe. Mr Wilders however has insisted that the patriotic spring would still happen.

Fellow eurozone countries France and Germany also face elections this year. France will hold its first round of voting in its presidential election on 23 April, with the second round being held on 7 May. The far right National Front is forecast to increase its vote dramatically. Meanwhile, Germany will hold its general election in September, where the popularist Alternative for German (AfD) may win seats in parliament for the first time. Mr Rutte had already spoken of the election as a quarter-final against populism, ahead of the French and German polls, and his victory was warmly greeted by other European leaders and politicians. French President Francois Holland stated that Mr Rutte had won a clear victory against extremism, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel hailed a very pro-European result, a clear signaland a good day for democracy. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy praised Dutch voters for their responsibility, while Martin Schulz, president of the European Parliament until earlier this year, stated that he was relieved that the Freedom Party had lost, adding we must continue to fight for an open and free Europe.