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Islamic State has Lost Territory in Iraq and Syria This Year

According to a defense consultancy, the so-called Islamic State (IS) group has lost 12% of the territory it controlled in Iraq and Syria in the first half of this year.

IHS has found that the “caliphate,” which was proclaimed by IS two years ago, has shrunk to 68,300 sq km (26,370 sq miles). According to IHS, in January 2015, just six months after IS declared the creation of a caliphate, the terror group controlled some 90,800 sq km of Iraq and Syria, adding that by December, that had shrunk by 12,800 sq km to 78,000 sq km, a net loss of 14%. According to IHS, since then IS has lost a further 9,700 sq km and now controls 68,300 sq km, which is roughly the size of the Republic of Ireland or the US state of West Virginia.

In Syria, IS has come under pressure from Syrian government forces, who are backed by Russia and Iran, and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters who are supported by a US-led multinational collation.   In February, the SDF captured the eastern town of Shaddadi, which was a major hub for IS, while in March, the ancient town of Palmyra was retaken by government forces. In neighbouring Iraq, troops and allied militiamen are preparing a long-awaited offensive to retake the northern city of Mosul, which is IS’s last remaining urban stronghold there.

IHS has reported that the losses of land in Iraq and Syria had led IS to set up its attacks on civilian targets elsewhere in the Middle East and in Europe, noting that such attacks are likely to intensify. Last week, almost 300 people died in an IS suicide bombing in Baghdad, Iraq. The attck came just days after the Iraqi government declared that it had retaken full control of the city of Fallujah, which is located just west to the capital.

Peruvian president-elect, who takes up office this month is likely to face an uphill battle to enact his political agenda, with a bitterly divided parliament

At the end of July, the 77 year old president-elect Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (head of the centre-right Peruvians for Change Party) will be sworn into office in Peru’s capital, Lima. The country is still recovering from the political polarisation that marked the presidential election and the new government face an uphill challenge as they take power with a marginal representation in Congress and strong opposition from both fellow right-wing parties and the left-wing opposition.

The political polarisation during the bitterly fought campaign was partly fuelled by Keiko Fujimori’s presence, who was leading in the polls and won the first round vote. Keiko is a controversial political presence in Peru, both loved and hated and inextricably linked to the legacy of her father, former-president Alberto Fujimori, who left office in the 1990s and was sentence to prison charged with corruption and human rights abuses during his time in office.

In this context, the eventual election of the uncharismatic, fiscally conservative technocrat Kuczynski, was at heart an anti-Fujimori vote. Members of the left and right wing formed a rare united front to back the president-elect in the second round vote and block Fujimori from becoming president. However, the extremely tight race saw the president-elect win by minuscule margins with the final count declaring his presidency with 40,000 additional votes.

The effects of such a tight margin? Kaczynski is likely to face constant blockages from all sides as he tries to enact his campaign pledges and develop a strong political agenda.

A challenging agenda ahead

Kuczynski’s government will face significant battles in Congress where Fujimori’s Party (Fuerza Popular) hold the majority of the 130 parliamentary seats. However, opposition from fellow-right wing Fuerza Popular is not the only challenge. Leader of the left-wing Frente Amplio, Verónika Mendoza, only supported the president-elect in the second round vote to keep Fujimori from office and has already declared that she will not form a government with the president’s party. Amid the current political uncertainty as to how the minority government will rule, there has been much media speculation around the Executive Committee in Congress and Fujimori’s future position.

The challenges for Kuczynski will be apparent from day 1, as the president attempts to focus on his two key campaign topics: the economy and citizen security. He will focus on increasing economic investment in the country, particularly in the controversial extractives sector and has campaigned to decrease regulation to lessen the burden for investors, though arguably also lessening the guarantees for those protecting environmental, social and cultural rights.

His vision of citizen security focuses on increasing the number of police and their capacity to fight organised crime by giving them more power. This, in a region that is experiencing the effects of the militarisation of police in the fight against organised crime and the subsequent abuses of power, has been viewed as problematic by many, while his supporters highlight the need for a Mano Dura (heavy hand) to protect citizens.

Throughout the election campaign, the role of narco-trafficking was bizarrely rarely mentioned considering Peru is facing an uptick in coca production. Moreover, with rising domestic consumption South America is now a key target for widespread narco-trafficking operations. However, it is likely that the president-elect will incorporate this into his “citizen security” plan, to enhance confidence in the police and develop intelligence capabilities to destroy crops and trafficking operations, particularly in key commercial hotspots.

Security Programmes – more snooping?

The new president has yet to outline his plan to increase prison capacity but has criticised Fujimori’s claims to build prisons above 4000 metres, claiming such measures were insufficient to address the roots of the problem around violent crime.

Kuczynski has voiced his support for former-Colombian president Álvaro Uribe’s security strategies during his time in office. Uribe focused on regionalising security and intelligence capabilities to oversee activities across the country. Peru’s president-elect has outlined his plans to develop relations with local villagers and regional authorities to create security watch dogs to “police” at a local level. What is not clear is whether these types of security programmes will necessitate special presidential powers to effectively allow more snooping. Such special powers are likely to be contested by other groups in parliament who will see this as a breach of citizen rights.

The president-elect’s security programmes include reforms to the National Intelligence Directorate, who are responsible for developing strategic information and running the National Intelligence System, overseeing military and police intelligence. This underlines that there will be transfer of inception communication with the national police forces who are responsible for fighting organised crime. In the same way it’s thought that the Financial Intelligence Unit will increase its powers and open investigations against those people and companies involved in crime and corruption.

What does this mean? The new president is likely to push for increased “snooping” to keep organised criminals at bay, whether this is an effective method or not is highly disputed. Whatever the outcome, he is unlikely to pass such special guarantees without a fight in parliament. For investors, due diligence into local partners will be critical to ensure that companies are compliant with local, state, federal and international regulations.

Who investigates who?

Another polemical discussion taking place is over which party will oversee the Fiscal Commission, responsible for carrying out anti-corruption and fraud investigations against members of parliament and government. This body recently required notoriety following its investigation into the role of drug-trafficking within Peruvian political elites. Members of Fujimora’s Fuerza Popular claim that they should lead the Commission as they have the majority in parliament. However, considering their party is currently under investigation on the grounds of illicit financing for Fujimori’s election campaign in 2011, many members of parliament are suspect about their independence to lead such a body.

Eyes on the road ahead

The political balancing act that Peru is now facing means that in the medium and long term the president elect will have to try and create a cross-party consensus on key issues to develop his political agenda. While at their heart the PPK and the Fuerza Popular, both conservative parties, have relatively similar policy angles when it comes to security and the economy, there are likely to be constant tensions between the majority Fujimoristas and the governing party. This will threaten Kuczynski’s ability to consolidate his political project and will seriously hamper his ability to follow through on his election promises.

While he has not finalised his government, it looks like the new president will bring together a group of experts and technocrats, highlighting that he will pick from those who were not part of his campaign. What is still unknown is whether the Peruvian Congress will pass the rights for the president to carry out reforms in the security and economic sector in the short term.

While investors might greet his plans to cut the red tape and deregulate some key industries to increase competition and investment, he is likely to face significant opposition from some quarters on environmental and social grounds. Investors looking at Peru, particularly in the extractives sector, should pay close attention to the president’s first three months in office to gage how he is likely to move ahead on this campaign pledge. Peru has faced significant challenges in its extractives sector and investors must be aware of the propensity for social activism if they do not develop cohesive operating plans with the local community.

Finally investors should be aware of the links between political elites at both a local, state and federal level and narcotrafficking activities and companies are advised to carry out due diligence to ensure they are aware of the risks within future operating environments.

Sahara Mining Services Limited and MS Risk Limited Announce Joint Venture for Services to the Extractive Sector in West Africa

Sahara Mining Services Limited and MS Risk Limited 

Announce Joint Venture for Services to the Extractive Sector in West Africa 

London, UK: MS Risk, a leading security and crisis response company serving the Lloyd’s of London specialty risk market, has announced it has last month signed a joint venture agreement with West African based Sahara Mining Services Limited to deliver security management and consultancy services to the extractive sector across the Sahel region of Africa. The agreement formalises pre-existing relationships that both businesses utilise. MS Risk has been performing tasks for clients across the turbulent Sahel region of West Africa for several years delivering security solutions to exploration, mining and energy clients throughout countries such as Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Cote d’Ivoire. Sahara has been operating in the exploration and mining sector across West Africa since 1996 and offers MS Risk an extensive logistical base to enhance and support existing projects. Sahara is also able to offer opportunities for the JV with its growing client base.

Highlights:

• MS Risk has deployed experienced expatriate consultants into the region permanently, using the Sahara logistics network for complete support centred from Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. MS Risk suppliers and key local service providers will benefit from increased mentoring as part of the agreement. Having these qualified and experienced consultants in theatre will dramatically improve response times to serious incidents, enhance the operational planning processes for events such as evacuations and other dynamic security tasks, and mitigate all risks through informed local insight and preventative procedures.

• A central feature to the new and enhanced joint service is the introduction of the MS Risk Security Alert Database which will be used externally for the first time to provide up-to-date alerts to client subscribers on security conditions in their localities to aid planning and monitoring of security atmospherics. Developed over the previous six years it contains the details of some 8,700 known security incidents in the region involving terrorism, banditry, kidnapping and civil disorder threat events. It has been painstakingly compiled by the analyst team at MS Risk. The industry links of Sahara along with their internal GIS mapping and GPS tracking capabilities has propelled the benefits even further for commercial client advantage.

About Sahara Mining Services: A West African based group, Sahara Mining Services has been providing specialist exploration and mining services internationally since 1996. It offers a range of mining services aimed at providing local support at an international standard. It maintains permanent bases in Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso and Ghana and has field offices across a half dozen countries. Services include Exploration, Drilling (auger), Geotechnical, Surveying, Hydrogeology, Telematics, Training, Mining Consulting, and Logistics Support. Further contact: Beau Nicholls, CEO, beau@saharaminingservices.com , www.saharaminingservices.com.

About MS Risk Limited: domiciled in Douglas, the Isle of Man, the company is retained as a crisis responder and security adviser by leading insurers at Lloyd’s of London. MS Risk’s consultants have been working in West Africa supporting the extractive sector for 20 years. The company provides Security Consulting, Project Management, Advisory, Due Diligence, Investigations, Training and Crisis Response Services. This is done directly for corporates and also through specialty risk insurance. This marks the second planned expansion in this calendar year after it established a permanent office in Mexico City in Q1 to support the growth of sales and assist on-going projects in Latin America. Further contact: Liam Morrissey, CEO, liam.morrissey@msrisk.com, www.msrisk.com.

Detention of teacher union leaders sparked clashes between protesters and authorities in southern Mexican state of Oaxaca, tensions likely to remain high in coming weeks

Clashes are likely to continue and intensify in coming weeks as CNTE protests take place across the country, particularly in the union’s stronghold states such as Oaxaca. As a key tourist hotspot those travelling to Oaxaca are likely to experience disruption to travel as protests block main entrances into and out of the city. 

The CNTE was founded in 1979 as a dissident union to the mainstream SNTE and has since been particularly strong in poor southern rural states such as Oaxaca, Chiapas and Guerrero. They are strongly opposed to the government’s 2014 education reform. Despite constant pressure in the last two years the CNTE has refused to stand down to government demands to enact the education reform and are particularly concerned about losing their right to keep a seat at the table with government in determining how teachers are hired. They have constantly asked that the union be included as a partner on education, which the government has rejected.

Over the weekend federal forces detained the secretary general of the National Education Teacher’s Union (CNTE), Rubén Nuñez Ginez, in the state of México, as well as Francisco Villalobos, the leader of the Oaxacan Section 22 of the CNTE. Supporters of the CNTE are calling the detention a “kidnapping” by the state on political grounds. The Attorney General’s Office (PGR) claim that the two union leaders are being held for alleged money laundering, aggravated robbery and illicit enrichment.

The detentions underline the highly politicised nature of the government’s relation with the CNTE, who have maintained pressure on the government to negotiate the terms of the 2014 education reform, which they outright reject. While teacher protests are a regular occurrence in the capital Mexico City, particularly during school holidays, and in other major cities in the south, protesters have upped the ante since the arrests this weekend, constructing road blocks and preventing the federal authorities from entering Oaxaca state by the official highway. 

Oaxaca

The CNTE is particularly strong in the poor southern state of Oaxaca, where the union believes rural teachers will be most affected by mass-lay offs and an education reform, which they argue does not respect local teaching practices in rural communities.

The government’s aggressive tactic to detain key leaders saw CNTE members and their families respond with vociferous opposition on Sunday, constructing more than 23 road blocks around Oaxaca city, and disrupting traffic from entering or leaving the city. Entrance and exit to Oaxaca airport and that of the beach town Puerto Escondido have been severely hampered by the roadblocks.  The authorities have responded in a heavy handed manner attempting to clear the protesters, firing tear gas and further inciting tensions between both sides. On Sunday night and Monday night clashes took place between the authorities and protesters throughout Oaxaca city. 

The Oaxaca faction Section 22 of the CNTE has maintained a strong protest movement against the government’s education reform in recent years and at key times – often in the school holidays – the teachers erect makeshift camps in major squares or outside government buildings in protest against the government’s refusal to negotiate on the terms of the reform. Throughout May authorities did not respond to the growing protests and road blocks in the city, likely because they did not want to threaten stability for the major PRI party ahead of the June 5 state election. However, with the PRI winning the state again, the authorities are now more likely to respond in a heavy-handed manner.

As such, tensions are expected to remain extremely strained in the coming weeks with regular clashes unless the government offers an avenue for dialogue or releases the detainees.

The education reform has been a highly contentious element of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s reform agenda. During the June state elections the governing PRI party suffered a series of defeats and the two-year old left-wing group MORENA, led by the charismatic Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador (AMLO) – formerly head of the PRD – made significant strides, notably in Oaxaca. AMLO has come out in support of the protesting teachers, which is likely to intensify the political debate around the education debate. However, with government unlikely to open new routes for dialogue with the CNTE, more disruption and potential violence is likely in the weeks ahead. 

Seven Years On: Chilcot Iraq War Inquiry Report to Finally Be Released

The official inquiry into the Iraq War will be published on 6 July, less than a fortnight after the United Kingdom holds a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union (EU)

An announcement on the inquiry’s website indicated that “Sir John Chilcot and the Prime Minister have agreed that the Iraq Inquiry’s report will be published on Wednesday 6 July 2016.” The news comes after Prime Minister David Cameroon confirmed that the report would not be published until after the 23 June EU referendum, effectively prompting criticism that the delay was to avoid embarrassing key ‘In’ campaigners.

Tony Blair, who was the Labour Prime Minister at the time of the 2003 conflict, is expected to be criticised in the report, along with other members of his government. According to Sir John, the chairman of the inquiry which started work seven years ago, the 2.6 million word report has now been vetted for national security breaches “without the need for any redactions,” adding that British spies had completed the redaction process in mid-May. The delay however was branded a “stitch up” by anti-EU MPs. Former shadow Tory home secretary David Davis MP disclosed that the delay was based on the “thinnest of excuses” and that it looked like the publication of th report had been pushed back deliberately until after the EU referendum. He stated “at long last at least it will give some comfort and closure to the loved ones of the soldiers who made the ultimate sacrifice…Nevertheless it is still outrageous that this vital report should have been delayed for so long for seven years in total,” adding, “even worse it is now delayed on the thinnest of excuses until after the EU referendum and it is the most disgraceful thing of all to put the stitching up the referendum ahead of the rights of the families of the Iraqi war dead.” Matthew Jury, a solicitor who is acting for 29 families of British soldiers who died in the Iraq War, also stated that “if national security checking of the report took two weeks, the Families are bewildered by the Inquiry’s position that it needs another two months for the simple task of proofreading and formatting,” adding, “with all the resources of the state at its disposal, absent an explanation, the Inquiry’s claim that I needs until 6 July is simply not credible.”

Sir John however has defended the two month-delay, stating that “this will allow suitable time for the Inquiry to prepare the 2.6 million word report for publication, including final proof reading, formatting, printing and the steps required for electronic publications.” Sources close to the inquiry have reported that the timing of the referendum had no bearing on the publication date.

Families of British soldiers killed in Iraq have also condemned the decision to delay publication in order to allow for Sir John Chilcot’s report to be proofread and typeset as “appalling.”