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US Military Official: IS “Has Lost 50,000 Fighters” Over Two Years

According to a US military official, at least 50,000 militants from the so-called Islamic State (IS) group have been killed since the US-led coalition was launched in Syria and Iraq two years ago.

The senior official has described the figure as a “conservative estimate,” adding that it showed that air power and a small number of US figures supporting local forces were having an impact. He further disclosed that the ongoing US campaign was beginning to damage IS. The US however has repeatedly warned that IS can replace fighters quite quickly.

While the US has often been reluctant to provide figures on enemy causalities, in August, Lt Gen Sean MacFarland was quoted by the AP news agency as stating that about 45,000 enemy combatants had been killed. Meanwhile in February, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest disclosed that IS had about 25,000 fighters operating in Syria and Iraq, citing a US intelligence estimate.

The senior US military official further disclosed that coalition airstrikes could be intensified in places such as Mosul, which Iraqi troops are now battling in order to recapture. He notes however that this would have to be offset against the risk of civilian casualties.

New MI6 Chief Warns of Terrorist Threat to UK

This month, the new head of MI6 disclosed that the scale of the terrorism threat to the United Kingdom is “unprecedented.”

According to Alex Younger, UK intelligence and security services have disrupted twelve terrorist plots since June 2013, adding that many of the threats came from ungoverned spaces in the Middle East – namely Iraq and Syria. He further warned that “hybrid warfare,” which included cyber attacks and subverting democracy, was becoming an “increasingly dangerous phenomenon,” noting, “the risks at stake are profound and represent a fundamental threat to our sovereignty…They should be a concern to all those who share democratic values.”

In his first public speech since taking up the post of “C,” Mr Younger warned of the impact of Russia’s alliance with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in casting all opponents of President Assad as terrorists. He disclosed, “I believe the Russian conduct in Syria – allied with that of Assad’s discredited regime – will, if they do not change course, provide a tragic example of the perils of forfeiting legitimacy.” He went on to say that “in defining as a terrorist anyone who opposes a brutal regime they alienate precisely that group that has to be onside if the extremists are to be defeated,” adding “we cannot be safe from the threats that emanate from that land unless the civil war is brought to an end.”

Speaking to journalists at MI6 headquarters in London, Mr Younger disclosed that the so-called Islamic State (IS) group had exploited the situation in Syria to fortify its stronghold in the region and to wage a war on the West, adding that IS had a “highly organized external attack planning structure” that was plotting attacks against the UK and its allies “without ever having to leave Syria.”

In describing the risks that MI6 agents face in the field, Mr Younger disclosed that “encountering terrorism, some of our agents operate in the most dangerous and hostile environments on earth,” adding, “they know that the result of being identified as an MI6 agent could be their death. But they do what they do because they believe in protecting their country – and religion – from the evil that Daesh (IS) and other terrorist organizations present.”

Since August 2014 the threat level for international terrorism in the UK has been severe, effectively meaning that an attack is highly likely. There are five threat levels – low, moderate, substantial, severe and critical – which are set up by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre.

UN Launches Record $2.7 Billion Aid for Sahel Region

The United Nations has reported that poverty, conflict and climate change will leave fifteen million people across Africa’s Sahel region in need of life-saving aid next year.

The UN has now launched a record UD $2.7 billion humanitarian appeal for the region in 2017. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), around 40 percent of the money will be used in order to help some seven million people in Nigeria, who have been affected by Boko Haram’s seven-year insurgency. OCHA has increased its appeal for eight countries in the semi-arid band that stretches from Senegal to Chad more than tenfold in as many years, however each year the funding has fallen short. This year’s US $2 billion appeal had been less than half-funded to date. According to the UN’s regional humanitarian coordinator, Toby Lanzer, “the lack of funding this year has worsened the humanitarian needs of 11 million people in the Lake Chad Basin, where the crisis is most acute.” Figures released by the OCHA have indicated that one in six people across the Sahel region are hungry, while in many communities throughout the region, a fifth of children under the age of five are malnourished. Aid workers say that in addition to violence involving militant groups, climate change is also becoming a major factor behind the growing number of vulnerable people across the region. This is due to increasingly unpredictable rainfall patterns, which disrupt local food production. Arame Tall, Africa regional coordinator for the UN-led Global Framework for Climate Services, states, “we are adapting by equipping farmers and policymakers with climate information and early warning forecasts, and being prepared not just weeks, but months and years ahead.”

The United Nations has also reported that the vast number of vulnerable people, and those who have been forced from their homes by violence across the Sahel region, some 4.5 million, is fuelling migration to Europe and driving more young men to join militant groups. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that this year, Nigeria has been the main country of origin for migrants arriving in Italy by sea. IOM data shows that at least 34,000 Nigerians have crossed from Libya so far in 2016, up from 22,200 last year. According to Anne Moltes, regional director of the peacebuilding group Interpeace, “families and communities are separated and split, education is disrupted and dreams of success dashed,” adding, “if there is no structure, young men leave to find figures of authority elsewhere.”

Europol Warns of Further IS Attacks in Europe

The European Union (EU) police agency Europol warned early this month that the so-called Islamic State (IS) group is likely to launch more attacks in Europe, noting that several dozen militants are already in place and more are possibly arriving as IS continues to face setbacks in Iraq and neighbouring Syria.

In a report on the threat that IS poses to the EU, Europol disclosed that the most probable forms of attack would be those used in recent years – ranging rom the mass shootings and suicide bombings that were seen in Paris and Brussels to stabbings and other assaults carried out by ‘lone wolfs,’ effectively radicals who are acting alone. In the report, Europol officials warn that car bombs and kidnappings, which are common in Syria, could emerge as tactics in Europe. It notes however that protected sites, such as power grids and nuclear power stations, were not seen as being top targets. The agency went on to say that essentially the entire EU is under threat as almost all of its governments back the US-led coalition in Syria, warning that IS was likely to infiltrate Syrian refugee communities in Europe in an attempt to inflame hostility to immigrants that has shaken many EU governments.

In a statement, Europol disclosed “if IS is defeated or severely weakened in Syria/Iraq by the coalition forces, there may be an increased rate in the return of foreign fighters and their families from the region to the EU or to other conflict areas.” It went on to say that IS was also likely to start planning attacks and sending militants to Europe from Libya and that other groups, including al-Qaeda and its affiliates, also continue to pose a threat to the European continent.

While Europol Director Rob Wainwrigth has disclosed hat EU states have increased their security cooperation in the wake of IS attacks in the last couple of years, which in turn has allowed for more plots to be thwarted, he noted that “nevertheless…Today’s report shows that the threat is still high and includes diverse components which can b only tackled by even better collaboration.”

Gambia’s Jammeh Rejects Presidential Election Results a Week After Admitting Defeat

In a shocking move, Gambian leader Yahya Jammeh on 9 December rejected the result of the presidential election held earlier this month, a week after he admitted defeat. He has called for new elections to be held and the ruling party has announced that it will challenge the results of the 1 December election at the Supreme Court. They have until 13 December to submit a challenge to the court.

The announcement, which was made on state television, throws the future of the West African country into doubt after the unexpected election result ended Jammeh’s 22-year rule. Last week, he had conceded defeat on state TV, in a move that resulted in celebrations over the defeat of a government that human rights groups accused of detaining, torturing and killing opponents during the president’s rule. Opposition leader Adama Barrow had been announced as the winner of the election by the country’s electoral commission. However on Saturday Jammeh has since stated that “after a thorough investigation, I have decided to reject the outcome of the recent election. I lament serious and unacceptable abnormalities, which have reportedly transpired during the electoral process,” adding, “I recommend fresh and transparent elections, which will be officiated by a god-fearing and independent electoral commission.” On the ground sources have reported that overnight the capital city Banjul remained quiet, however there was a particular nervousness about the president’s statement that he would deal harshly with any troublemakers who took to the streets.

International reaction to his statement has also been swift, with the United States State Department saying in a statement that Jammeh’s rejection of the results was an egregious attempt to undermine a credible election and remain illegitimately in power. Meanwhile Senegal’s foreign minister disclosed on Saturday that Gambian authorities have refused entry to the chair of regional body Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Ellen Sirleaf Johnson, in a move that has dampened hopes for a political solution after President Yahya Jammeh rejected the results of the election he lost on 1 December. Sirleaf Johnson had hoped to put back on track Gambia’s first democratic transition to power in over fifty years, however those plans appeared thwarted on Saturday when her plane was denied landing access at Banjul. Senegalese foreign minister Mankeur Ndiaye disclosed “Johnson Sirleaf was supposed to fly in today, but Jammeh said ‘not at the moment.’” It was not clear if the plane had already taken off.   Also on Saturday the African Union (AU) weighed in on Yahya Jammeh’s refusal to accept the 1 December presidential election results, calling his statement “null and void.” Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma disclosed that “the Chairperson of the Commission strongly urges President Yahya Jammeh to facilitate a peaceful and orderly transition and transfer of power.” She also called on Gambia’s security forces to remain neutral. The United Nations Security Council on Saturday condemned Gambia President Yahya Jammeh’s rejection of election results announced last week that saw him lose power after 22 years. The Council has urged all parties to refrain from violence. In a statement, the Council disclosed “(Security Council members) called on him to respect the choice of the sovereign People of The Gambia, as he did on 2 December 2016, and to transfer, without condition and undue delay, power to the President-elect, Mr Adama Barrow.”

The head of Barrow’s transition team has disclosed that the president-elect and his staff members are safe. Mai Ahmad Fatty went on to say “we are consulting on what to do, but as far as we are concerned, the people have voted,” adding “we will maintain peace and stability and not let anyone provoke us into violence.” What is certain is that Jammeh’s shock announcement will present an unexpected and severe challenge to the incoming Barrow administration, which is already grappling with how to take the reins of power and deal with an army that for the past two decades has been loyal to the same present. While last week, army chief General Ousman Badjie had called Barrow in order to pledge his allegiance, diplomatic sources have disclosed that they expect a faction from Jammeh’s Jola ethnic group to remain loyal to him.

Official election results from the electoral commission gave Barow 45.5 percent of the vote against Jammeh’s 36.7 percent. The Independent Electoral Commission however later corrected the results to give Barrow a slimmer lead with 43.3 percent of votes, or fewer than 20,000 more than Jammeh.