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Algerian Militant Believed Killed in French Air Strike

On Monday, reports emerged that militant Mokhtar Belmokhtar, who is one of al-Qaeda’s most notorious allies in North Africa, has been killed in a French air strike.

A US official confirmed a report in the Wall Street Journal that US intelligence helped France target the veteran jihadist. The news comes as French defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian was in Washington for talks with his US counterpart Secretary of Defense Ash Carter. However neither top official confirmed the strike, which is said to have taken place in southern Libya earlier this month. Furthermore, while the Algerian militant, commander of an al-Qaeda-linked faction of the al-Murabitoun group, has been reported killed on a number of previous occasions, the official disclosed that the latest strike is believed to have finally hit the elusive militant, who was once known for kidnapping Europeans for multi-million dollar ransoms. Citing experts and unnamed officials, the Wall Street Journal reported that the strike reflects closer US and French intelligence cooperation. In the wake of the November 2015 Islamist attacks in Paris, which killed 130 people, US President Barack Obama promised that closer intelligence cooperation with Paris would begin. In 2013, Belmoktar became one of the world’s most wanted men after an attack on the In Amenas gas plant in Algeria, which left at least 38 hostages dead. Over the past few years, his group has continued to carry out deadly attacks and this year it claimed responsibly for an attack on a luxury hotel in Burkina Faso that killed another twenty people, most of them foreigners. Washington has put a US $5 million bounty on the 44-year-old head, dubbing him the leader of the Khaled Abu al-Abbas Brigade, also known as the “Signatories in Blood.” More recently, reports that he is in Libya have fuelled concern that jihadists will take advantage of the political turmoil there to establish a base of operations.

Colombian Government and FARC to Sign New Peace Deal

President Juan Manuel Santos disclosed on 22 November that a new peace accord between the Colombian government and Marxist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebels will be signed on Thursday 24 November, effectively bringing a formal end to the 52-year civil war ever closer.

The revised document will be signed in Bogota between FARC leader Rodrigo Londono and President Santos, who won the Nobel Peace Prize last month for his efforts to end the conflict with the insurgent group.   During a televised address on Tuesday, President Santos stated, “We have the unique opportunity to close this painful chapter in our history that has bereaved and afflicted millions of Colombians for half a century.

Over the last four years, the Colombian government and the FARC have been in talks in Havana, Cuba in a bid to agree on a peace deal to end a conflict that has killed more than 220,000 and displaced millions in the Andean country. In a bid to build support, after the original draft was rejected in a 2 October referendum amidst objections that it was too favourable to the rebels, the government published the revised version last week. The expanded and highly technical 310-page document appears to make only small modifications to the original text, such as clarifying private property rights and detailing more fully how th rebels would be confined in rural areas for crimes committed during the war.

President Santos and London had signed the original deal two months ago in a ceremony before world leaders and United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. This time however it has been decided that the revised accord will be ratified in Congress instead of holding an other referendum – a move that will likely anger members of the opposition, particularly former President Alvaro Uribe who spearheaded the push to reject the original accord. The former Colombian leader wants deeper changes to the new version and he has already criticized it as just a slight altered version of the original. Furthermore, he wants rebel leaders to be banned from holding public office and for them to be jailed for crimes. In his televised address, President Santos stated that “this new accord possibly wont satisfy everybody, but that’s what happens in peace accords. There are always critical voices; it is understandable and respectable,” warning that another plebiscite could divide the nation and put in danger the bilateral ceasefire.

The FARC, which began as a rebellion fighting rural poverty, has battled a dozen governments as well as right-wing paramilitary groups. An end to the war with the FARC is however unlikely to end violence in the country as the lucrative cocaine business has given rise to dangerous criminal gangs and traffickers that operate throughout the country.

Tensions on the Rise Between NATO and Russia

Britain has disclosed that it will send fighter jets to Romania next year while the United States has promised troops, tanks and artillery to Poland in what is NATO’s biggest military build-up on Russia’s borders since the Cold War.

NATO’s aim is to make good on a July promise by NATO leaders to deter Russia in Europe’s ex-Soviet states, after Moscow orchestrated the annexation of the Crimea peninsula in 2014. During a defense ministers meeting in Brussels in late October, several NATO allies joined the four battle groups led by the United States, Germany, Britain and Canada to go to Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia. Canada has stated that it was sending 450 troops to Latvia, joined by 140 military personnel from Italy. Britain’s Defense Secretary Michale Fallon disclosed that Britain would send an 800-strong battalion to Estonia, supported by French and Danish troops, starting from May. London is also sending Typhoon fighter aircraft to Romania to patrol around the Black Sea, partly in support of Turkey. Fallon noted that “although we are leaving the European Union, we will be doing more to help secure the eastern and southern flanks of NATO.” Meanwhile Germany has stated that it was sending between 400 and 600 troops to Lithuania, with additional forces from the Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Croatia and Luxembourg.

According to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, allies’ commitments would be “a clear demonstration of our transatlantic bond.” Meanwhile diplomats have disclosed that the move would also send a message to US Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who has complained that European allies do not pay their way in the alliance.

Stoltenberg has disclosed that the troop contributions to a new 4,000-strong force in the Baltics and Eastern Europe were a measured response to what the alliance believes are some 330,000 Russian troops that are stationed on Russia’s western flank near Moscow. NATO’s plan is to set up four battle groups with a total of some 4,000 troops from early next year, backed by a 40,000-strong rapid-reaction force, and if need be, follow-on forces. According to US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, as part of that, a “battle-ready battalion task force” of about 900 soldiers would be deployed to eastern Poland, as well as another, separate force equipped with tanks and other heavy equipment to move across eastern Europe, adding “it’s a major sign of the US commitment to strengthening deterrence here.” Stoltenberg has disclosed that “this month alone, Russia has deployed nuclear-capable Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad and suspended a weapons-grade plutonium agreement with the United States.” Those ballistic missiles can hit targets across Poland and the Baltics however NATO officials have declined to disclose whether Russi had moved nuclear warheads to Kaliningrad. He further accused Russia of continued support for rebels in Ukraine.

The decision to deploy additional forces in Eastern Europe came on the same day that two Russian warships armed with cruise missiles entered the Baltic Sea between Sweden and Denmark, underscoring East-West tensions. Russian media reported in late October that Russia is sharply upgrading the firepower of its Baltic Fleet by adding warships armed with ling-range cruise missiles to counter NATO’s build-up in the region. While so far there has been no official confirmation from Moscow, the reports will raise tensions in the Baltic region, and will particularly cause alarm in Poland and Lithuania, which border Russia’s base there. NATO and the Swedish military have confirmed that the two warships have entered the Baltic.

Russia’s daily Izvestia newspaper cited a military source as stating that the first two of five ships, the Serpukhov and the Zeleny Dol, had already entered the Baltic Sea and would soon become part of a newly formed division in Kaliningrad, which is Russia’s European exclave that is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. Another source familiar with the situation told the Interfax news agency that the two warships would be joining the Baltic Fleet in the coming days. According to the source, “with the appearance of two small missile ships armed with the Kalibr cruise missiles the Fleet’s potential targeting range will be significantly expanded in the northern European military theatre.”

US Air Strikes on the Rise in Afghanistan as Struggles Against Taliban, IS Continues

This year, American air strikes in Afghanistan have already significantly surpassed the total number of strikes that were carried out last year, in what is a stark indicator of the United States’ struggle to extricate itself from the conflict and to stick to its declared “non-combat” mission.

According to US military officials, between 1 January and 20 October this year, American warplanes conducted around 700 air strikes compared to about 500 in total carried out last year. Furthermore, about 240 were under rules that were approved by President Barack Obama in June, which effectively allowed US forces to more actively support Afghan troops during strategic combat operations. Also a similar number were conducted against “counter terrorism” targets, including about fifty against al-Qaeda and 190 against the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. Other air strikes can be conducted in defense of US and international military advisors, as well as some Afghan troops. American air strikes have been credited with helping to prevent Taliban forces from completely overrunning cities like Lashkar Gah, the capital of embattled Helmand province. However despite the air strikes, militants continue to contest or control as much as a third of the country.

This rise in strikes signals a deeper role for American forces that is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. While ending US involvement in Afghanistan was one of President Obama’s signature promises, with him going on to declare the combat mission over at the end of 2014, in the last year of his presidency, however, rising violence has led President Obama to keep more US forces in the fight, both to target a growing IS presence, but also to back up Afghan troops who have been struggling to combat IS and Taliban militants. This year, top American military commanders in Afghanistan successfully pressed the president to reverse an earlier restriction on the use of air strikes, therefore clearing the way for a rise in attacks on IS and Taliban targets.

In a statement, US military spokesman Brigadier General Charles Cleveland disclosed that “the increase in strikes is due to the additional authorities US forces received and due to the Afghan change in strategy to offensive operations.” The statement goes on to say that “the new authorities have allowed the US to be more proactive and deliberate in supporting this year’s Afghan offensive operations and in aggressively targeting (Islamic State).”

With no end in sight for one of America’s longest wars, any decisions on the future of the I strikes, and the nearly 9,000 US troops who will remain in Afghanistan, will be up to the winner of the 8 November American presidential election. In a report release in October outlining challenges for the next president, a dozen former US military commanders and ambassadors to Afghanistan wrote that “it will be important to ask if the relaxation of rules of engagement that President Obama provided to American/NATO forces in Afghanistan in 2016 should go further, allowing even more substantial use of their air power against the Taliban.”

Colombia Delays Peace Talks with ELN

Colombia has announced that it is delaying peace talks with Marxist National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels until they free a politician who has been held captive for six months. President Juan Manuel Santos made the announcement on 27 October as he struggles to salvage a peace agreement with the FARC that was rejected in a referendum.

Reiterating a condition he set months ago, President Santos disclosed that the ELN, which is the country’s second-biggest insurgent group, must release Odin Sanchez to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) before talks can begin in Ecuador. The opening ceremony had been scheduled to take place in Ecuador’s capital on 27 October at 6 PM ED (2200 GMT) however it was cancelled at the last minute.

Furthermore, recent remarks by ELN members have posed a setback to the talks. Member of the ELN Negotiating Team Pablo Beltran has disclosed that the group has the right to “deprive liberty” from people in the armed conflict in Colombia, effectively meaning that the group claims that kidnapping is their legal right. Statements by Pablo Beltran have also caused problems for the negotiations to release Mr Sanchez.

The 2,000-strong ELN, which is considered a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union (EU), had kidnapped hundreds of people during its 52-year insurgency in order to raise funds and use hostages as bargaining ships with the Colombian government.

The talks with the ELN are likely to mirror those, which were held with the FARC. The peace agreement was signed on 26 September with the FARC and while it was internationally lauded, it was criticised by many in Colombia for being too lenient on the rebels. Former President Alvaro Uribe is now leading the effort to change the agreement that would have given the FARC guaranteed congressional seats and immunity from traditional jail sentences.