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Chinese Cyber Espionage Against the U.S. Non-State

Allegations of Chinese cyber attacks on U.S. interests, both state and non-state are not new phenomena. Each red dot in the above map shows a successful alleged Chinese attempt between 2010 and 2014 to steal U.S. corporate and military data. Some of the U.S. victims of these attacks have been Google, Lockheed Matin, the U.S. government and the U.S. miitary. Over 600 dots are peppered across the U.S. industrial centers in the northeast and the west coast as well as other places in the country. Nearly 50 cyber attacks have occurred in California alone. Some examples of the kind of data the U.S. has lost to cyber espionage have been specificiations of hybrid cars, formulas for pharmaceutical products, data on critical U.S. infrastructure such as electrical power, telecommunications and internet backbone, and details including U.S. military and civilian air traffic controls systems.

As cyber espionage has been a persistent threat to U.S. enterprises, perhaps, looking at the problem in monetary terms could provide an easily understandable perspective on the magnitude of the matter. Studies show that cyber crime will be a $2.1 trillion dollar problem by 2019. Also, the U.S. dependence on global supply chain and business outsourcing leaves it highly vulnerable to cyber attacks. In 2014, cyber attacks, alone, have cost on average the following to U.S. companies:

• $8.6 million per company in U.S. retail;
• $20.8 million per company in U.S. financial services;
• $ 14.5 million per company in U.S. technology sector
• $12.7 million per company in U.S. communications industry

While this may already look bad enough for U.S. businesses, what could make it worse is the new Chinese cyber security law, which will be effective in June 2017. In the midst of some degrees of ambiguity in the law, the following surface as critical concerns for the U.S. enterprises operatiing in China:

• The law requires that the Chinese government investigators be given full access to companies’ data if wrong-doing is suspected;
• The law requires that business information and data on Chinese citizens be kept in domestic servers and cannot be transferred overseas without prior permission;

Some analysts judge that foreign companies being required to store data in domestic servers leave potentials for the Chinese local industries to gain competitive advantage over their foreign rivals. Although the U.S. and China have struck up a cyber security agreement that forbids theft of intellectual property and economic espionage, analysts cannot entirely dismiss the possibility that the U.S. military will continue to be an attractive target of Chinese cyber espionage.

Colombia and ELN Begin Peace Negotiations

Last week, members of Colombia’s ELN left-wing rebel group and government negotiators began talks seeking to end more than five decades of conflict.

The negotiations were launched at a ceremony in the capital of Ecuador, Quito, where the talks will be held. Ecuador is hosting the first round of negotiations, with Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Norway and Venezuela acting as guarantors.   The chief ELN negotiator, Pablo Beltran, has urged both sides to rally around the points that united them and to leave aside their differences.   He further called on the rebels to officially suspend its kidnapping policy during the negotiations. The ELN relies on the ransom obtained from kidnappings to finance its activities. Mr Beltran disclosed that peace would not be achieved through more repression, adding “we need a political solution. We are willing to take responsibility for the mistakes we have made but we expect the other side to do the same.

The top government representative, Juan Camilo Restrepo, meanwhile disclosed that he expected to draw from the lessons of the negotiations with the FARC in order to reach a peace accord with the ELN. Both officials however agreed that this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the country to achieve peace.

The ELN, or National Liberation Army, is Colombia’s second largest rebel group.   It was founded in 1964 with the stated aim of fighting Colombia’s unequal distribution of land and riches, which was inspired by the Cuban revolution of 1959.   The talks were initially due to begin at the end of October last year however they were delayed as the Colombian government refused to sit down for formal negotiations while the rebels still held Odin Sanchez, a former congressman. Mr Sanchez was released on 2 February 2017 while on 6 February, the group released a solider it had been holding hostage for two weeks. The soldier, Freddy Moreno, was handed over to delegates from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Arauca province.

The talks come just months after the Colombian government signed a peace agreement with Colombia’s largest rebel group, the FARC. In November 2016, the Colombian government signed a revised peace agreement with the country’s largest group, the FARC, after four years of negotiations in the Cuban capital, Havana. Members of the FARC have ben gathering in “transition zones,” where they are to demobilise and lay down their weapons under the supervision of United Nations monitors. According to government officials, the last of the FARC rebels are expected to reach the designated debilitation areas by 15 February.

CIA Releases 13 Million Pages of Declassified Documents Online

This month, the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) released about 13 million pages of declassified documents online. The full archive is made up of almost 800,000 files, which had previously only been accessible at the National Archives in Maryland.

The move came after lengthy efforts from freedom of information advocates and a lawsuit against the CIA. Documents that have been released online include the papers of Henry Kissinger, who served as secretary of state under presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, as well as several hundred thousands of pages of intelligence analysis and science research and development.

The more unusual records that have been released are documents from the Stargate Project, which dealt with psychic powers and extrasensory perception. Those include records of testing on celebrity psychic Uri Geller in 1973, when he was already a well-established performer. Memos detail how Mr Geller was able to partly replicate pictures drawn in another room with varying, but sometimes precise, accuracy, leading the researches to write that he “demonstrated his paranormal perceptual ability in a convincing and unambiguous manner.”

While most of the information has technically been publically available since the mid-1990s, it has been very difficult to access ass the records were only available on four computers located in the back of a library at the National Archives in Maryland, between 09:00 and 16:30 each day.

ELN Announces Readiness to Call Bilateral Ceasefire with Government

Late last month, Colombia’s second largest rebel group, the ELN, announced that it was ready to call a bilateral ceasefire with the Colombian government while they negotiate an end to five decades of war.

According to the National Liberation Army’s (ELN) negotiator Aureliano Carbonell, “we are willing to have a bilateral ceasefire from the beginning…That would help create another climate to the peace process; send the nation a positive message.” He went on to say that the ELN would allow former President Alvaro Uribe’s participation in the talks, adding “we agree that Uribe, or a representative, participates at the negotiating table. Peace is made with adversaries and Uribe leads the biggest war mongering sector.” Uribe is the strongest opponent of the FARC accord and demands that rebel commanders are jailed for their crimes.   Juan Camil Restrepo, chief government negotiator, has said that he will seek a “de-escalation” of the conflict.

The government and the ELN will begin formal peace talks in Ecuador on 7 February, once the insurgent group frees a kidnapped politician and authorities pardon two jailed rebels. The sit down will effectively end three years of back and forth between the two sides. Officials are also hoping that it will stop a conflict that has pitted leftist rebels against right-wing paramilitaries and the military, killing over 220,000.

Any early bilateral ceasefire would contrast with the FARC talks, which stretched for four years in Cuba and which were conducted mostly amidst fighting and bomb attacks. A bilateral ceasefire was only called in the final stages of the talks.

The Middle East’s Reaction to President Donald Trump’s Travel Ban

On 27 January, the US president Donald Trump signs an executive order, entitled “Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States”, which places 90-day bans on arrivals from seven Muslim-majority countries: Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen, and suspended the admission of all refugees for 120 days. Trump has said his travel ban is designed to reduce the risk of terror attacks in the US.

Iran has issued a strong statement condemning Trump’s executive order and has warned that it will take legal, political and reciprocal measures. The country’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, warned the ban will only “serve as a great gift to extremists and their supporters.” Iran’s ministry said that the decision by the US government to impose restrictions on the travel of Muslims to the US “though temporarily for three months – is a clear insult to the Islamic world, and especially to the great nation of Iran.” Iran have said they will take “reciprocal measures in order to safeguard the rights of its citizens until the time of the removal of the insulting restrictions of the United States against Iranian nationals.”

Iraq’s Foreign Ministry expressed its “regret and astonishment” over the ban, saying it was unfortunate the decision had been made, despite the two nations achieving victories in their joint fight against IS. “The decision by the US is arbitrary”, Intisar al-Jabbouri, a member of parliament from northern Iraq said. “The Iraqi government has the right to reciprocate.” A reciprocal ban could impact American aid workers as well as contractors and journalists currently working in the nation. Additionally, some 5000 US military personnel aiding in the fight against IS could be affected. A senior analyst at the Institute for the Study of War said, “if Iraq were to ban US citizens from travelling to Iraq, it would have devastating consequences for our fight against IS, al-Qaeda and other terrorist organisations.”

Syria has yet to release an official response, however state-run SANA media has highlighted international criticism of the ban.

Saudi Arabia has not publicly taken a position on the ban, however, its national airline, Saudi Arilines, released a statement saying citizens from the seven affected countries “will not be permitted to travel with Saudi Airlines.”

Turkey’s Deputy Prime Minister, Mehmet Simsek, said refugees are welcome in Turkey. He tweeted “we’d happily welcome global talent not allowed back into USA.”

Yemen’s Saudi-allied government released a statement saying that Trump’s ban supports radicals. The foreign ministry said, “We resent the US ban… such decisions support the stance of extremists and sow divisions.” Authorities controlled by the Iran-allied Houthi group said attempts to “classify Yemen or its citizens as a possible source of terrorism are illegal and illegitimate.” A statement from the Yemeni Embassy in Cairo said the US is now unfairly barring citizens fleeing a country where US forces are engaged in a fierce fight against terror.