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IS Suicide Attacks on the Rise

A report by the Hague’s International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) has revealed the extent of suicide attack tactics by IS. The report concluded IS is carrying out more suicide bombings than ever before as “utterly brainwashed” militants continue to battle in Iraq and Syria.

Charlie Winter, the author of the report, said that while al-Qaeda’s suicide attacks were mainly carried out by foreigners on civilians, IS mainly sends local operatives against military forces. “This reflects a new phase of operationalisation for suicide warfare; a tactical shift with strategic implications that will change the insurgent and terrorist landscape for years to come,” he said. “The suicide attack, that most shocking tactic of terrorists and insurgents, has never been more commonplace than it is today.” He found at least 923 suicide operations were carried out by IS in the 12 months from December 2015 to November last year and predicted that number would continue to increase. Around 84 per cent were military operations, while 16 per cent targeted civilians. Most of the attacks use vehicles packed with explosives, sometimes with the addition of guns, and others used fighters wearing vests or carrying guns and belts to detonate during combat. IS has long used suicide bombings as a military tactic to kill and intimidate enemy fighters, but the number of such attacks has rocketed as it continues to lose territory in Iraq and Syria, more than doubling from 61 operations in December 2015 to 132 in November.

Lina Khatib, head of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, said the trend was a sign of “military weakness”. “Suicide bombers are individuals who can be deployed using the minimum available explosives, whereas anything larger scale would require more sophisticated weaponry,” she said. “The fact they are increasingly relying on suicide bombers means they do not have the kind of military capacity they used to have to enable them to use heavy weapons.” Khatib believes the group’s supply of weaponry and ammunition seized from overrun Iraqi and Syrian government forces and opposition fighters is drying up, as its supply lines are closed off by tightening border controls and enemy advances. Khatib also discussed how IS’ use of suicide bombers was initially offensive, with the group deploying them in a similar way to how a conventional army would use artillery in ground assaults on a military target, but the tactic has now become a last line of defence. This does not mean, however, that the tactic is unsuccessful. “It has managed to intimidate their targets,” Khatib said. “IS continues to use them knowing that targets are unlikely to use the same tactic.”

IS propaganda claims 90 suicide bombings were carried out by the group in January alone, mainly in areas of Iraq where the group is under attack. Winter said that although the bombings occur most frequently where IS is under military pressure, they are used tactically and the group does not waste fighters on cities like Fallujah that it considers a lost cause. “It is apparent from the scale of IS’ suicide industry that there exists a dedicated infrastructure for manufacturing would-be martyrs and it is only increasing in efficiency,” he warned. “IS’ suicide tacticians have perfected their art, not only developing explosives that are more powerful and reliable than ever, but creating what appears to be a sustainable stream of utterly brainwashed would-be suicide fighters.”

“Superspreaders” Behind Ebola Outbreak in West Africa

Researchers reported last month that most of the people infected with Ebola in the West Africa epidemic, which began in 2014, got sick through contact with a small number of “superspreaders” with the disease. The West African Ebola epidemic was the largest in history and killed more than 11,300 people, with many of the cases involving people infected while caring for a sick person or burying a body.

The study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences indicates that such “superspreaders” can be extremely dangerous when it comes to infectious disease outbreaks. According to co-author Benjamin Dalziel, an assistant professor of population biology in the college of Science at Oregon State University, “we now see the role of superspreaders as larger than initially suspected,” adding “it was the cases you didn’t see that really drove the epidemic, particularly people who died at home, without making it to a care centre.”

At the time, researches counted cases according to those seen in medical centres, however they later realized that these were a small fraction of the total. According to Dalziel, “there wasn’t a lot of transmission once people reached hospitals and care centres,” adding “in our analysis we were able to see a web of transmission that would often track back to a community-based superspreader.”

Researchers are now reporting that 61 percent of those infected with the disease caught it from people accounting for just three percent of those who got sick. The report went on to say that if superspreading had been completely under control, then about two-thirds of Ebola cases could have been avoided.

Superspreaders have also played a role in the epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 and Middle East respiratory Syndrome in 2012.

The study involved researchers from Princeton University, Oregon State University, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, the Imperial College London and the US National Institutes of Health.

Operation Car Wash and The Future of Latin Americas Political Landscape

A dominant theme in the Latin American press for a while now has been the corruption probes that have instigated the downfall of quite a few members of the Latin American financial and political ruling class. The saga started initially as a money laundering investigation in Brazil in 2014. Operation Car-Wash has since ballooned into a multinational corruption probe that has contributed to the impeachment of a President, to the jailing of billionaires, helped stall the worlds ninth-largest economy and led to a $3.5 billion corporate fine, a world record in a graft case. At the center of attention is Odebrecht, Latin Americas largest construction company whose former CEO has been sentenced to nineteen years in prison last year. New developments are coming out every day as indicted executives and politicians are spilling the beans amid plea bargaining and spiraling media coverage. February was no exception. In Argentina the head of the National Intelligence Agency, Gustavo Arribas, a close ally to President Macri, is under investigation for taking bribes. In Peru former President Alejandro Toledo is alleged to have received $20 million in kickbacks in return for green-lighting Odebrechts bid to build sections of the Interoceanic Highway, which now links Brazil with Perus Pacific ports. Peru has issued an international arrest warrant for Toledo. In Panama thousands of people have taken to the streets in protest over a bribe paid by Odebrecht to former President Ricardo Martinelli in exchange for public contracts. US authorities say Odebrecht paid $59m in bribes 2010 and 2014. Interpol has issued a Red Notice for two of Martinellis sons. Guatemala, which saw its ex-President Otto Perez Molina jailed for corruption, faced the arrest of a Supreme Court Judge in February as part of a nation-wide anti-corruption drive. Odebrechts activities are heavily scrutinized in the Central-American country. Venezuelan authorities raided the Caracas offices of Odebrecht, as prosecutors deepened a probe into the Brazilian construction firm that has admitted paying some $98 million in bribes to obtain government contracts in Venezuela. Amid the fall from grace of many members of the once powerful and rich ruling elite, it remains to be seen where justice starts and politics eventually end. Accusations are rife, however in some countries it takes place during election time. In Ecuador, where the lead opposition candidate is offering a sharp break with ten years of leftist rule, it is not hard to imagine a huge political influence of the continent-wide corruption scandal. Put into the mix Trumpian isolationism, Chinese and Russian bids for influence and the ongoing effects of a massive commodities downturn, the future of the Latin American political landscape might again become volatile.

Calls for Ethics Inquiry Regarding Senior White House Adviser’s Ivanka Trump Promotion

A government ethics advisory body stated last week that Senior White House adviser Kellyanne Conway should be investigated over her promotion of Ivanka Trump’s products. In a letter on 14 February, it advised the White House to investigate and possibly discipline Ms Conway.

The Office of Government Ethics (OGE) found reason to believe that Ms Conway had violated ethnics rules. The statement comes just five days after she urged people to purchase the president’s daughter’s range on Fox News. Her comments prompted complaints from both Democrats and Republicans, who have now been backed by the OGE, which is an independent body.

The inquiry is likely to add pressure to Donald Trump’s administration, in a week where national security adviser Michael Flynn was forced to step down over his contact with the Russian ambassador. So far, the White House has stood behind Ms Conway, who earlier this month urged people to buy after retailer Nordstrom dropped Ivanka’s clothing line, citing a lack of sales. Press secretary Sean Spicer did however disclose that she had been counselled following the incident, however the OGE letter noted that it had received no notice of disciplinary or any corrective action against Ms Conway. The letter notes there is strong reason to believe that Ms Conway has violated the Standards of Conduct and that disciplinary actions is warranted. It recommended that the investigation and any disciplinary action be taken by 28 February.

Ethics rules state officials cannot use their position for personal gain. The letter says that there is no doubt that Ms Conway appeared on television in her official capacity, as she sat in front of the White House seal and next to an American flag.

Republicans Call for Investigation of Flynn’s Contact with Russia

Last week, leading members of the United States Republican Party joined calls for a wide investigation into the former national security adviser’s links with Russia.

On 13 February, Michael Flynn resigned from his post over claims that he discussed US sanctions with Russia before President Donald Trump took office. On 14 February, a White House spokesman disclosed that President Trump knew weeks ago that there were problems with the Russia phone calls, however calls for an independent investigation have encountered a cold response from some senior Republicans.

The development came as the New York Times reported that phone records and intercepted calls show that members of Mr Trump’s presidential campaign, as well as other Trump associates, had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election. However, officials spoken to by the newspaper have disclosed that they had not yet seen evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia on the hacking of the Democratic National Committee or to influence the election. As well as an FBI investigation into the matter, both the Senate and House intelligence committees are already examining Russian involvement in the election, though it currently remains unclear whether the latest claims will be included in their scope.

Mr Flynn stood down over allegations that he discussed US sanctions with a Russian envoy in December 2016, before Mr Trump took office. The conversations took place about the time that then-President Barack Obama was imposing retaliatory measures on Russia following reports that it attempted to sway the US election in Mr Trump’s favor. Mr Flynn could have broken the law, known as the Logan Act, by conducting US diplomacy as a private citizen before he was appointed as national security advisers.

Initially, Mr Flynn, who is a retired lieutenant-general, denied having discussed sanctions with Ambassador Sergei Kislyak, while Vice President Mike Pence publicly denied the allegations on his behalf. While the White House admitted that it had been warned about the contacts on 26 January, President Trump initially concluded that Mr Flynn had not broken any law. According to White House spokesman Sean Spicer, White House lawyers then conducted a review and questioned Mr Flynn before reaching the same conclusion as the president, however by that point the trust had gone. On 14 February, White House Counsellor Kellyanne Conway disclosed that in the end, it was misleading the vice-president that made the situation unsustainable. According to US media, Mr Flynn was also reportedly questioned by FBI agents in his first days as national security adviser.

In an interview conducted with the conservative website the Daily Caller on 13 February, and published on 14 February, Mr Flynn disclosed that he “crossed no lines” in his conversation with the ambassador, adding that he discussed the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats over alleged hacking ahead of of the lection, but “it wasn’t about sanctions.” He went on to say that he was concerned that the apparently classified information had been linked, adding “in some of these cases, you’re talking about stuff that’s taken off of a classified system nad given to a reporters…That’s a crime.”

On 14 February, US House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes told reporters that he wanted to examine the leaks, stating that the FBI should explain why Mr Flynn’s conversation had been recorded. The Senate’s second-ranking Republican, John Cornyn, and other Republican senators have also called for an investigation into Mr Trump’s connection with Russian officials. Republican John McCain, who is the Chairman of the senate Armed Services Committee, disclosed that Mr Flynn’s resignation was a “troubling indication of the dysfunction of the current national security apparatus,” which raised questions about Mr Trump’s intentions towards Russia.

While Mr Flynn has resigned, Democrat Adam Schiff, a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, disclosed that his departure will not end questions about contacts between the president’s campaign and Russia. However there are various ways that these questions could be answered. Two Democratic members of the House of Representatives have demanded a classified briefing to Congress on Michael Flynn by the justice department and FBI. Several House Democrats had already called on Oversight Committee Chairman Jason Chaffetz to launch an investigation into Mr Flynn’s ties to Russia.