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Brexit: What Occurs When Article 50 is Triggered?

If the UK government sticks to its timetable, then Article 50 will be triggered by the end of this month. But how and when? And what happens next?

What is Article 50?

The referendum last June was the UK’s signal that it wants to leave the European Union, and Article 50 is the format notification of the UK’s intention to leave – effectively it is the start of the leaving process, which will last two years.

The article itself is a short, five-point text that was enshrined into EU law as part of the Lisbon Treaty in 2009. Prior to that, there was no process for leaving the EU. The text is vague, brief and is open to interpretation. Furthermore, it has never been tested before as no member has ever left the EU. Likewise there is no precedent, no patter to follow and therefore the process and procedures for leaving the EU are unclear.

How is Article 50 Triggered?

Due to the lack of precedent, the mechanics of triggering Article 50 are only now being discussed by officials in both London and in Brussels. The only requirement is that the notification is made in writing to the President of the European Council. Therefore it could be as simple as one line and sent in the form of an email, however given the enormity of the decision and the symbolism of the moment, it is likely that the UK government will make more of it. The notification letter may therefor include a reference to the UK government’s repeated desire that the EU remain a strong partner for Britain after Brexit. The letter could also be hand-delivered to the European Council building in Brussels. However by who it remains unclear, although it could be by Britain’s Ambassador to the EU, Sir Tome Barrow, or the Brexit Secretary, David Davis MP.

When Will Article 50 Be Triggered?

When to pull Article 50 is entirely up to the country that is planning to leave the EU. In the case of the UK, Prime Minister Teresa May has repeatedly indicated that she will do it by March. Time however is quickly running out, and the process have been further complicated by politics and sensitivities both in the UK and in Europe.

Domestically, politics between the House of Lords and the House of Commons has deployed the process. Only once the Brexit bill has been cleared by both houses and received royal ascent, will Prime Minister May be in a position to trigger it. However there are several dates which have been deemed as being inappropriate for a triggering.

• 15 March – All eyes will be on the Dutch election, which could be a potentially tricky day for the EU if anti-EU far-right candidate Geert Wilders does well. Triggering Article 50 on that day would also dominate the news agenda and could, potentially, influence Dutch voters. The result of the election will trickle in on 16 March, which will be another bad day to trigger Article 50.
• 25 March – This day marks the 60^th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, which laid the foundations of the present-day EU. The heads of state from all EU members, with the exception for now at least the UK, will gather in Rome for a weekend of celebrations.

IS the UK Still a Member of the EU After Article 50 Has Been Triggered?

Yes, the UK will remain a member of the EU for precisely two years from the day the article is triggered. Therefore if Article 50 is triggered on 31 March 2017, then the UK would case to be a member of the EU at the end of the day on 31 March 2019. During this two-year period, the UK will remain bound by EU laws and regulations. It will also be entitled to near-full membership rights, however it must also honour its commitments as a member and those include financial. The only areas in the two-year period where the UK is excluded from EU affairs are when the 27 remaining countries are discussing the UK withdrawal or where they are discussing internal EU business.

Once Article 50 Has Been Triggered, Is there Any Turning Back?

Article 50 does not state whether it is reversible and EU lawyers have never pronounced on the issue.

Will Negotiations Between the UK and the EU Begin As Soon As Article 50 is Triggered?

No. There is a common misconception that in the first week after the triggering of Article 50, the two negotiators – Michel Barnier for the EU and David Davis MP for the UK – will face off across a table and begin negotiating Britain’s exit. It will not work like this for a number of reasons. Firstly, the EU side will need at least two months in order to draw up guidelines. The remaining 27 states will also decide on negotiating topics and re lines, which they will then feed into the EU Council. While the EU has already presented a united front on Brexit, it will quickly become clear that many of the negotiating topics and red lines are unique to individuals states. Subsequently things will become more granular, complicated and divided as the process goes along. It will be up to the European Council’s behind-the-scenes Brexit negotiation, Belgian diplomat Didier Seewus, to co-ordinate with the member countries and try to keep negotiations on track. Secondly, while Mr Barnier is the chief negotiator on behalf of the EU Commission, the negotiations will be carried out by large teams on both sides.

 What if the Withdrawal Process Takes Longer than the Designated Two Years?

 The exit clock to leave the EU effectively begins the moment that Article is triggered. Precisely two years later the UK ceases to be a member of the EU. During that period, the negotiations for the exit must be concluded. However this is an extremely unrealistic timetable to conclude such complicated negotiations and in reality, because of the time taken at the beginning and the end for the process to wind up and wind down the negotiations, the actual negotiating time will probably be only 15 months at best. The two-year Article 50 period can however be extended, and the UK continue to be an EU member, however only if all 27 remaining countries agree to it unanimously.

US Announces Decline in Illegal Immigrant Crossings

The United States government announced this month that the number of illegal immigrants crossing into the US from Mexico went down by 40% from January to February.

Homeland Security Chief John Kelly disclosed that the “change in trends” was the result of President Donald Trump’s tough policies. Mr Kelly disclosed that the number of “inadmissible persons” crossing the US-Mexico border had dropped this year from 31,578 to 18,762 in January to February – a period when the number of arrests of illegal immigrants usually increases. He disclosed that “since the administration’s implementation of executive orders to enforce immigration laws, apprehensions and inadmissible activity is trending toward the lowest monthly total in at least the last five years.”

New rules announced by the Trump Administration last month included plans to send undocumented people to Mexico, even if they are not Mexicans, and expand the criteria for immediate deportations. The government disclosed that the new guidelines would not usher in mass deportations, but were instead designed to empower agents to enforce laws that are already on the books. The president has also signed an executive order for an “impassable physical barrier” on the US-Mexico border and has insisted that Mexico will pay for it, despite its repeated refusals. The measures have been condemned by Mexico as being “hostile and “unacceptable.”

The president made immigration and border control a key part of his election campaign, promising to protect Americans from “bad dudes.” An estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants live in the US, many of whom are from Mexico.

Meanwhile on Monday 6 March, President Trump revised his travel ban, barring people from six mainly Muslim countries. The ban however has since faced its first legal challenge from the state of Hawaii. State lawyers have asked for an emergency block on the order, stating that the measure will harm its residents, businesses and schools.

While the revised measure removed some of the more controversial language on religious minorities, Hawaii Attorney General Doug Chin disclosed that it still constituted a “Muslim ban” due to the countries involved and past statements from the administration.

The directive, which includes a 120-day ban on all refugees, will take effect on 16 March. Citizens of Iran, Libya, Syria, Somali, Sudan and Yemen, the other six countries on the original 27 January order, will once more be subject to a 90-day travel ban. Iraq, which was listed on the original order, has since been removed from the list.

President Trump’s previous order was halted by the US federal courts amidst concerns that it unfairly targeted Muslims. It caused chaos at airports and mass protests.

Wikileaks Offers Tech Firms First Pick at CIA Files

Last week, Wikileaks announced that technology firms will get “exclusive access” to details of the CIA’s cyber-warfare programme. The statement comes after the anti-secrecy website published thousands of the US spy agency’s secret documents, including what it says are the CIA’s hacking tools.

On Thursday 9 March, Wikileaks founder Julian Assange stated that, after some thought, he had decided to give the tech community further leaks first. Mr Assange disclosed that “once the material is effectively disarmed, we will publish details.” US federal agencies have already launched a criminal investigation into the release of the documents.

In its first tranche of leaks, Wikileaks alleged that the CIA had developed what Mr Assange called “a giant arsenal” of malware to attack “all the systems that average people use.” Tech firms, including Apple and Google, have since stated that hey are developing counter-measures to combat any malware that the CIA may have developed. Mr Assange has disclosed that his organization had “a lost more information on the cyber-weapons programme,” noting that while Wikileaks maintained a neutral position on most of its leaks, in this case it did make a strong stance, stating “we want to secure communications technology because, without it, journalists aren’t able to hold the state to account.” Mr Assange also claimed that the intelligence service had known for weeks that Wikileaks had access to the material and done nothing about it.

On Thursday, Mr Assange also spoke more about the Umbrage programme, which was revealed in the first leaked documents. He stated that a whole section of the CIA is working on Umbrage, a system that attempts to trick people into thinking that they have been hacked by other groups or countries by collecting malware from other nation states, such as Russia. He noted that “the technology is designed to be unaccountable,” and claimed that an anti-virus expert, who was not named, had come forward to say that he believed sophisticated malware that he had previously attributed to Iran, Russia and China, now looked like something that the CIA had developed.   Mr Assange went on to say that “the type of attack system corresponds to a description we published of that attack system unless of course China has already got hold of these parts of the CIA arsenal and is using it to pretend to be the CIA,” adding that the intelligence agency could potentially be causing the tech industry “billions of dollars of damage.”

North Korea’s History of Kidnappings and Foreign Assassinations

In February, local police reported that Kim Jong-nam, the half-brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, was killed in Malaysia. Over the past several weeks, some South Korean media outlets have reported that North Korean agents were responsible for his death, so far there has been no evidence provided. However, since Kim Jong-un took power, he has made no compunction in execution officials perceived as being a threat to his authority. In one of the most high-profile incidents, his uncle and senior mentor, Chang Song-thaek, was executed. The country itself has also had a long history of sending agents overseas in order to carry out assassinations, attacks and kidnappings. Below are five such incidents.

Raid on the Blue House (1968) 

A team of thirty-one elite, handpicked North Korean commandos were sent to the south with a mission to infiltrate the Blue House, which is South Korea’s presidential residence, and assassinate President Park Chung-hee. While hiding out in the mountains above Seoul, they were discovered by a group of civilians however they decided that instead of killing them, they would teach them about communism and release them with a warning not to tell anyone. Their plan however was foiled as police and the military were notified, although the North Korean commandos managed to evade detection. They entered the capital, dressed in South Korean army uniforms, and marched to the Blue House disguised as the very soldiers tasked with locating them. At a checkpoint 100m away from the Blue House, they were questioned and a gunfight erupted. While many of the commandos managed to flee, most were later killed or committed suicide as they tried to get back to the North. One was captured. In that incident, more than ninety South Koreans wee killed, including a large group of civilians who were reportedly on a bus.

Bombing in Burma (1983)

If the incident in Malaysia is indeed an assassination attempt that occurred in a third country, then this is nothing new. A bomb hidden at the Martyrs’ Mausoleum in Rangoon, the capital of Myanmar, exploded just minutes before then South Korean President Chun Doo-hwan arrived to lay a wreath on 9 October. Mr Chun’s car had been delayed in traffic, which ultimately saved his life, however seventeen South Korean nations, including four ministers were killed, and four Burmese nationals also died. Three North Korean agents were involved in the attack and are said to have detained one of three bombs early, after hearing the sound of a bugle that mistakenly signalled the president’s arrival. They managed to flee the scene, however one was later killed nad the two others were captured.

Overseas Abductions (1970s – 1980s)

North Korea has admitted to kidnapping Japanese citizens in the 1970s nad 1980s in a bid to train its spies in Japanese customs and language. Some were kidnapped from coastal areas in Japan by North Korean agents while others from overseas. The youngest was a thirteen-year-old girl who was abducted in 1977 while on he way home from school. Pyongyang has since retuned five of the abductees, stating that eight more died. Japan however does not believe that hey are dead, adding that far more people were abducted. South Koreans have also been targeted in abduction cases, with the most high profile case being that of a film director and his actress wife, who were taken in Hong Kong to North Korea so that they could help the country build its firm industry.

Killing in Vladivostok (1996)

It is estimated that thousands of North Koreans are living in Russia, and South Korean consular official Choi Duk Keun’s job was to monitor those who were living in Vladivostock. He was found bludgeoned in October 1996, with South Korean media later reporting that he was killed to avenge the deaths of twenty-two North Korean commandos whose submarine ran aground on a beach in South Korea a month earlier.

Targeting Defectors

North Korean defections have led to assassination attempts. In 2016, when North Korea’s deputy ambassador to the United Kingdom defected, South Korea warned at the time of possible revenge assassinations and kidnappings. There is precedent to this as when Hwang Jang-yob, a senior politician, defected to South Korea in 1997, another prominent defector, Yi Han-yong, was shot in the head by suspected North Korea assassins. He was the nephew of Song Hye-rim, who is the mother of Kim Jong-nam. Thirteen years later, two North Korean military officials posing as defectors were jailed in South Korea for an unsuccessful plot to kill Mr Hwang.

IS Suicide Attacks on the Rise

A report by the Hague’s International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) has revealed the extent of suicide attack tactics by IS. The report concluded IS is carrying out more suicide bombings than ever before as “utterly brainwashed” militants continue to battle in Iraq and Syria.

Charlie Winter, the author of the report, said that while al-Qaeda’s suicide attacks were mainly carried out by foreigners on civilians, IS mainly sends local operatives against military forces. “This reflects a new phase of operationalisation for suicide warfare; a tactical shift with strategic implications that will change the insurgent and terrorist landscape for years to come,” he said. “The suicide attack, that most shocking tactic of terrorists and insurgents, has never been more commonplace than it is today.” He found at least 923 suicide operations were carried out by IS in the 12 months from December 2015 to November last year and predicted that number would continue to increase. Around 84 per cent were military operations, while 16 per cent targeted civilians. Most of the attacks use vehicles packed with explosives, sometimes with the addition of guns, and others used fighters wearing vests or carrying guns and belts to detonate during combat. IS has long used suicide bombings as a military tactic to kill and intimidate enemy fighters, but the number of such attacks has rocketed as it continues to lose territory in Iraq and Syria, more than doubling from 61 operations in December 2015 to 132 in November.

Lina Khatib, head of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, said the trend was a sign of “military weakness”. “Suicide bombers are individuals who can be deployed using the minimum available explosives, whereas anything larger scale would require more sophisticated weaponry,” she said. “The fact they are increasingly relying on suicide bombers means they do not have the kind of military capacity they used to have to enable them to use heavy weapons.” Khatib believes the group’s supply of weaponry and ammunition seized from overrun Iraqi and Syrian government forces and opposition fighters is drying up, as its supply lines are closed off by tightening border controls and enemy advances. Khatib also discussed how IS’ use of suicide bombers was initially offensive, with the group deploying them in a similar way to how a conventional army would use artillery in ground assaults on a military target, but the tactic has now become a last line of defence. This does not mean, however, that the tactic is unsuccessful. “It has managed to intimidate their targets,” Khatib said. “IS continues to use them knowing that targets are unlikely to use the same tactic.”

IS propaganda claims 90 suicide bombings were carried out by the group in January alone, mainly in areas of Iraq where the group is under attack. Winter said that although the bombings occur most frequently where IS is under military pressure, they are used tactically and the group does not waste fighters on cities like Fallujah that it considers a lost cause. “It is apparent from the scale of IS’ suicide industry that there exists a dedicated infrastructure for manufacturing would-be martyrs and it is only increasing in efficiency,” he warned. “IS’ suicide tacticians have perfected their art, not only developing explosives that are more powerful and reliable than ever, but creating what appears to be a sustainable stream of utterly brainwashed would-be suicide fighters.”