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Ebola Outbreak in DRC Sparks Fears of Another Major Epidemic

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported on Friday 12 May that an Ebola outbreak has been declared in northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), after the deadly virus causes three deaths in the area since 22 April. Nine suspected infections have been reported.

According to the WHO, the outbreak affects an equatorial forest region in Bas-Uele province, which borders the Central African Republic (CAR). The WHO has disclosed that it is working closely with DRC authorities in order to help deploy health workers and protective equipment in the remote area to “rapidly control the outbreak.” In a television address, Health Minister Oly Ilunga confirmed the outbreak while urging the population “not to panic,” and stating that the country “has taken all necessary measures to respond quickly and efficiently to this new outbreak.”

Logistical Challenge in Latest Outbreak

The remote region in the DRC’s far north poses a logistical challenge for doctors and aid workers, however the sheer remoteness of the area could also help in limiting the spread.

According to the WHO, the zone at Likati, which is located some 1,300 kilometres (930 miles) from the capital Kinshasa, was very difficult to access, stressing however that it was crucial to pinpoint who had had contact with those affected in order to contain the outbreak. While the main city in the northeast, Kisangani, is accessible by air, and then one could travel by road to Buta, which is the capital of Bas-Uele, covering the 150 kilometres that separates Buta and Likati is another matter, combining travel by boat along the Itimbiri river and then using motorbikes to reach Likati. According to Eugene Kabambi, the spokesman for the WHO’s Congo mission, “four-wheel drives wont go through” the narrow forest roads, with Regis Billaudel, the head of mission of the medical NGO Alima, disclosing that “taking heavy equipment in all these zones is a real chilling…There it’s a world of motorcycles, cycles and stretchers.” He went on to say that an Alima team was already on its way to Likati adding “we are studying various possibilities.”

Previous Outbreaks

The last Ebola outbreak in the DRC occurred in 2014 and was quickly contained. According to official figures, it killed 49 people. This latest outbreak is the eight to date. Meanwhile in a separate outbreak that began in 2013, the Ebola epidemic in West Africa killed 11,300 people in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and has left thousands more survivors with long-term health problems. The WHO was criticized at the time for responding too slowly and for failing to grasp the gravity of the outbreak.

Ebola is a viral illness whose initial sysmptoms may include a sudden fever, aching muscles and a sore threat, with subsequent symptoms including diarrhoea and vomiting and, on occasion, internal and external bleeding. Humans can catch the illness from close contact with infected animals. Inter-human transmission occurs through direct contact with infected blood or bodily fluids. Mourners can also catch it if they have direct contact with the bodies of victims at funerals.

Ransomware Global Attack is Largest in History

Experts are describing a global ransomware attack that occurred this month as “the biggest ransomware outbreak in history,” adding that Russia appears to be the hardest hit.

According to some experts, up to 99 countries may have been affected by the ransomware cyberattack that struck the NHS health service in the United Kingdom. It is believed to be the biggest attack of its kind ever recorded.

Russia appears to be the hardest hit nation, with its interior nad emergencies ministries and biggest bank, Sberbank, reporting that they wer targeted. According to Russia’s Interior Ministry, around 1,000 computers had been infected, adding however that it had localized the virus. According to researchers from the Kaspersky Lab, Spain, India and Ukraine were also severely affected, with the group stating that the malware struck at least 74 counties. Research with security software maker Avast however have reported that they had observed 57,000 infections in 99 countries, citing Taiwan amongst the top targets. In the United States, the effect of the hack did not appear to be widespread, at least initially.

Hacking group Shadow Brokers reportedly released the malware last month, after claiming to have discovered the flaw from the US National Security Agency (NSA).

Experts have indicated that criminal organizations were probably behind the attack, given how quickly the malware spread. Ransomware is malicious software that infects machines, locks them by encrypting data and then attempts to extort money to let users back in. The software used in the latest attacks is called WannaCry, or Wanna Decryptor, and exploits a vulnerability in the Windows operating system. It effectively allows the malware to automatically spread across networks, so that it can quickly infect large numbers of machines at the same organization. Cyber extortionists tricked victims into opening malicious attachments to spam emails that appeared to contain invoices, job offers, security warnings and other legitimate files. The ransomware then encrypted data on the computes, demanding payments of US $300 to US $600 to restore access. Security researchers have indicated that they observed some victims paying via the digital currency bitcoin, though they did not know what percent had given in to the extortionists.

Security Advisory: Cote d’Ivoire (15 May 2017)

Security Advisory

Military protests continued in cities across Cote d’Ivoire over the weekend as the revolt over bonuses gathered momentum – now entering its fourth day. Tensions began late last week in Bouake, spreading quickly to other cities and towns and mirroring an uprising that occurred back in January, which paralyzed parts of the country. Gunfire was heard in Bouake, Abidjan and in other cities after a national television broadcast ceremony on Thursday 11 May, in which a soldier presented as a spokesman for 8,400 former rebels said that they wished to apologise to President Alassane Ouattara for the mutiny. As well as apologizing the rebel spokesman, named as Sergeant Fofana, stated that they were giving up all their financial demands. However this has been rejected by about half of the mutineers. Tensions are likely to further continue in the coming days as President Ouattara has announced that the country funds are limited.       

MS Risk continues to advise anyone currently in the country to avoid military barracks, military installations, large crowds and demonstrations. We advise that you remain vigilant at all times, monitor the local media and follow instructions given by local police and security personnel.   In order to prepare for civil disorder in the event that tensions continue, we recommend the following immediate actions:

• Have a weeks supply of life support, including fuel
• Keep vehicles out of site in repair shops and stripped of valuables
• Be prepared to hand over vehicles if forced
• Keep a manifest of all staff members and report daily
• Do not go out before 0900 and be back by 1500 in order to avoid peak traffic and obvious car jacking times.
• Ensure all staff members have emergency numbers and control post numbers to hand
• Establish a Duty Manager roster so that there is always a responder ready
• Email all movements to a central point so that there is a running record
• You should expect to see increased government forces traffic and presence if intensions increase.

MS Risk continues to closely monitor the situation in Cote d’Ivoire and we will issue further bulletins as more information becomes available.

Incident Summary

Abidjan

• The northern road corridor is blocked and the Abobo district is very tense as it is a rebel stronghold.
• Sporadic gunfire was heard around 5 AM (0500 GMT) on Monday 15 May at military camps in Abidjan.
• A march against the ongoing army mutiny was held in the Abidjan on Saturday 13 May.

Bouake

• Gunfire was heard at dawn on Monday 15 May in the city.
• On Sunday 14 May, at least five people were wounded by gunfire during protests against the army mutiny. Heavy gunfire erupted on Sunday as soldiers sought to disperse crowds of residents who were attempting to organize a march against the mutiny.
• On Sunday, mutinous soldiers opened up access to the city, effectively allowing vehicles to move in and out for the first time since Friday 12 May, when they cut off access, defying the army chief who threatened severe punishment if they did not return to barracks.

Daloa

• Heavy shooting was heard in the city on Monday 15 May.
• A march against the ongoing army muting was held on Saturday 13 May in Daloa.

Korhogo

• A march against the ongoing army mutiny was held in the city of Korhogo on Saturday 13 May.
• On Saturday 13 May, mutinous soldiers shot and wounded two residents. According to witnesses, the two young men, who were travelling on a motorcycle, tired to force their way through a roadblock erected near the city’s main military base when the soldiers opened fire, wounding them in the legs.
• Shooting was heard overnight (12 – 13 May) in the town.

France Has Chosen the EU: Next Challenges for President Elect Macron

Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron won the second round of the presidential election on 7 May. The first official results from the Interior Ministry show that Macron received around 62 percent of the vote, versus 34 percent for nationalist candidate Marine Le Pen. This victory can be seen as a breath of fresh air for Europe, as had Le Pen prevailed in Sunday’s vote, she could have helped set in motion the bloc’s crumbling, even if her most radical proposals, such as holding a referendum on France’s Eurozone membership, would have been difficult to implement.

Le Pen’s performance in the election suggests that although Euroskepticism is strong in France, the prospect of leaving the bloc still frightens more voters in the country than it attracts. Nevertheless, the fact that the National Front secured 34 percent of the vote means that the economic and financial risk will continue to be of primary concerns among the most part of the citizens. Macron has a formidable task ahead of him. His presidency will test whether a centrist, pro-European leader can govern France and whether an inexperienced politician can perform better than the professional politicians his campaign criticized.

As far as domestic reforms are concerned, overhauling France’s economy is vital to the Macron plan. In the next five years he wants to make budget savings of €60bn (£51bn; $65bn), so that France sticks to the EU’s government deficit limit of 3% of GDP (total output). Public servants would be cut in number by 120,000 – through natural wastage. Concerning the Labour market, he would not scrap France’s famed 35-hour work week, but he would try to introduce further flexibility around a basic legal framework of labour rights and rules, allowing firms to negotiate deals with their staff on hours and pay.  He would try to introduce further flexibility around a basic legal framework of labour rights and rules, allowing firms to negotiate deals with their staff on hours and pay. On immigration, he aims at creating a 5,000-strong force of EU border guards, make fluency in French the main qualification for obtaining French nationality and give all religious leaders comprehensive training in France’s secular values.

However, some of Macron’s proposals, especially those aimed at further liberalizing France’s economy, reducing the public sector and introducing more flexible labor laws, will meet with resistance from some parts of French society, including unions and student groups. If En Marche! fails to win a majority in the National Assembly in the country’s legislative elections next month, the president will have an even harder time enacting domestic reform. His predecessors Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande found it difficult to introduce economic reforms even with control of the legislature because of opposition, not only from the public but also from their own parties at times.

On Europe, preserving France’s alliance with Germany, will be a priority for the next administration in Paris, and for Berlin as well. The two countries will probably be on the same page on the Brexit issue, defending the indivisibility of the European Union’s single market and ensuring that the United Kingdom doesn’t get too favorable a trade deal from the bloc. They will also work together to increase defense and security cooperation across the European Union, focusing on protecting its external borders, Macron is also a critic of Russian policy and backs EU sanctions put in place after the Ukraine crisis.

Still, Germany and France will have plenty of room for disagreement, especially where the Eurozone is concerned. Paris, broadly speaking, is willing to tolerate inflation and a cheap euro to keep Europe’s exports competitive. France also tends to take a flexible stance on deficit and debt targets, while espousing protectionism to defend vulnerable sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, against external competition. Many of these ideas go against Germany’s interests. For example, Macron has already proposed creating a separate budget for the Eurozone, financed by jointly issued debt, to pay for investment programs across the currency area. He also wants more shared responsibility within the eurozone and believes Germany’s big trade surplus has to be rebalanced.

There are many challenges ahead for the new President, and it is going to be a long way to go. Most of his success both nationally and internationally will depend on the French Assembly’s support and on the reestablishment of the traditional strong alliance with Germany.

US Issues Travel Alert for Europe

On 1 May, the United States State Department issued a travel alert for Europe, stating that US citizens should be aware of a continued threat of terrorist attacks across the continent.

In the alert, the US State Department cited recent attacks in France, Sweden, the United Kingdom and Russia, stating that the so-called Islamic State (IS) group and al-Qaeda “have the ability to plan and execute terrorist attacks in Europe.” The alert went on to say that malls, government facilities, hotels, clubs, restaurants, places of worship, parks, airports and other locations are all possible targets for attacks.

On Monday, a State Department official disclosed that the latest alert was not prompted by a specific threat, but rather recognition of the continuing risk of attacks, particularly ahead of the summer holidays.

The State Department’s previous travel alert for Europe, which had been issued ahead of the winter holiday season, expired in February. This latest alert expires on 1 September 2017.