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Evaluating President Moon’s electoral “success” in South Korea

South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in, and his left-of-centre Democratic Party, in tandem with an affiliate Party created for the elections, gave the Conservative opposition United Future Party – a shellacking in the April 15^thParliamentary Elections, winning three-fifths of the 300 House of Assembly seats. The stellar performance of the Progressives gained it 51 seats, and a super-majority to potentially grant President Moon’s reform agenda an easier ride through legislature. This was the largest legislative election victory by any party since South Korea’s Democratic dispensation in 1987.

The new reality for leaders and governments across the globe, seems that Citizenry judge them writ large through the lens of Public Health Policy – in the face of the scourge and terror that Covid-19 has unleashed. The question was how President Moon’s government and Health officials were dealing with the Virus? The Election results seems to have justified his handling of the Health crisis.

“The challenge for us has been how to protect the suffrage of the people and at the same time install safeguards to minimize the danger of infection that could happen during the election,” said Kim Gang-lip, a vice health minister and senior coordinator for the government’s war against the coronavirus.

Mr Gang-lip’s comments puts matters into some perspective. Luminaries in the practice of Democracy like Britain and France postponed elections; and America is in the grip of a political feud over mail-in voting versus in-person voting during the up coming Presidential elections in November. It sounds like Democracy is in perilous times – at risk as the Coronavirus lets reap.

In February, South Korea was second to China in the number of Covid-19 infections recorded. But through the policy of widespread testing, isolation, and treatment, managed to significantly flatten its curve. It turns out President Moon’s government’s handling of the pandemic imbued the electorate with confidence in his leadership, and rewarded his Democratic Party, and its affiliate. The elections against this backdrop, took on added significance – to preserve Democracy, and to keep the public safe.

Strict safety measures were put in place to forestall any potential spread of the Virus. Voting officials screened Voters for high temperature, and requested them to stand at three-foot distance from one another, wear face masks, use hand sanitizer and wear disposable gloves before casting their ballots. The New York Times reported that more than 13,000 South Koreans serving the mandatory 14-day quarantine who wanted to cast their ballots were escorted by officials to do so after polling stations closed officially at 6pm, and many others with mild symptoms used mail voting. Voter turn-out was 66.2 percent – the highest it’s been since 1992.

Observers of Politics in the Korean peninsula would concur that President Moon’s Legislative election victory, and the laudatory assessment his public health policies have both received – is the easier part of the equation.

The next set of hurdles ostensibly are steeper, and the question is how President Moon Jae-in would parlay his increased political capital from the election towards improving security and economic ties with North Korea. President Moon has been an unwavering crusader and instigator of diplomatic rapprochement between Washington and Pyongyang. The dichotomy in South Korea over relations with North Korea runs along party lines, and was at play in the elections. Mr Moon’s liberal party favouring a détente, while the Conservatives prefer the status quo – with South Korea’s security enmeshed in its bilateral security cooperation with Washington.

President Moon’s hand is strengthened by this crushing electoral victory of the Conservative alliance. His hankering for North Korea’s leader Kim Jung-un and President Trump to reach a denuclearization deal feeds into his vision for a Joint Inter-Korean economic venture – believing that South Korea’s security is best served under the aegis of a bilateral economic cooperation between both sides of the peninsula.

“South Korean conservatives will intensify their criticism of President Moon’s engagement policies for going too far, too fast with North Korea,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

To make matters fraught for President Moon, his détente strategy is substantially dependent on President Trump and Kim Jung-un of North Korea reaching an agreement – two leaders with capricious characteristics. Commentators see that as walking on eggshells.

The economy is expected to face critical head winds from Covid-19 induced global recession. Bloomberg reports a 1.4% contraction of GDP on last Quarter, and there is more bad news to come from the Labour market.  How does the President address the misstep of a controversial close cabinet member Cho Kuk, who was dogged by ethical and financial malfeasance that sparked rallies demanding the resignation of the Justice Minister late in 2019?

Former Governor of New York State, Mario Cuomo once said: “We campaign in Poetry, and govern in prose”. That aphorism well applies in the aftermath of President Moon’s electoral success. Despite a sequence of wins in Presidential, Local, and Legislative elections, failure to take a pragmatic approach governing domestic and International affairs, throw-in the mix a potential for the resurgence of Covid-19 infections, and a perfect storm emerges. That could come at a heavy political price. South Korea’s political climate can be that volatile.

Latin America Ignorance and Fear Spread as they Face the COVID-19 Pandemic

Origins of Covid-19

On December 31^st Chinese authorities informed the World Health Organisation (WHO) of pneumonia cases in the city of Wuhan, China. On January 3, China reported that 44 suspected patients have this unknown illness. On January 7, it was identified that the cause of the outbreak was a form of coronavirus which eventually became known as COVID-19. This virus soon began to spread rapidly with the number of confirmed cases in China growing drastically with the country reporting 44 cases at the beginning of January and having 11,791 confirmed cases by January 31^st with people dying from the virus. Cases of COVID-19 begin to crop up across countries in Asia with Thailand, Japan and South Korea all reporting confirmed cases. Before the end of January, America, Australia and Germany also reported confirmed cases and by January 31, there were 11 confirmed cases in the United States. By February 24, the WHO announced that the world must stay focused on containment and prepare for a potential pandemic. However by late February, countries from across the globe were all reporting confirmed cases of the COVID-19 virus, with a February 27 report of 3,474 cases globally and 54 deaths, outside of China across 44 countries. On March 9, the WHO declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic, with the number of cases and deaths increasing every day and with some of the hardest hit countries being in Europe, notably Italy and Spain.

Outbreak in Latin America

The first case of COVID-19 in Latin America occurred in Brazil, on 26^th February 2020. As of April 1, Latin America reported 20,081 cases and 537 deaths across the region. The response to the COVID-19 outbreak in Latin America has overall been in line with global health recommendations with exceptions in Brazil and Mexico.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, has come under fire since the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in his country due to his attitude towards the pandemic. He has continuously stated that the virus is no worse than the flu and has continued to go against social distancing measures due to the effect it could have on the country’s economy. He has become the centre of an argument for spreading misinformation regarding the COVID-19 outbreak and underplaying the severity of the virus and pandemic which has killed thousands of people across the globe.

Similarly in Mexico President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador had a very blasé attitude towards the pandemic. The first two cases of COVID-19 in Mexico were confirmed on February 28, with the numbers steadily growing over the next few weeks. In the early stages of the virus in Mexico, the health ministry expressed hesitancy to closing the boarders as they had few cases and closing the borders with the US would greatly affect the economy. However, by March 17, Mexican authorities were seen to be dragging their feet towards stricter measures. with the President himself attending meet and greets, hugging surging crowds of supporters and kissing babies. On March 24, President Obrador, whilst attending a rally, stopped to pull out two religious amulets and stated that they were protective shields which were protecting him from the disease. Mexico temporarily closed its border with the United States for 30 days on March 20. The number of confirmed cases in Mexico by the end of March was at 475 with six deaths however by April 15 the number of confirmed cases had risen to 5,399 and 406 deaths.

Along the same lines as Mexico and Brazil however, reported in more extremity is the reaction to the pandemic by Nicaragua with President Daniel Ortega going into isolation from March 12, leaving his wife Vice President Rosario Murillo to contain the pandemic. However, the response from Nicaragua has gone against all global health regulations, with no lockdown or social distancing being in place. Even to the point where they are not reporting any cases the current figures that are available show the number of cases at nine with one death.

However, the majority of countries in Latin America have taken the advised steps of social distancing and followed suit with the widespread lockdowns as seen across Europe and the United States. As of March 26 almost all countries in Latin America have closed their borders and instructed residents to go into lock down in a measure to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Chile was one of the first countries to enact closures of schools and begin a total lockdown, along with Bolivia, Colombia and Honduras. All have been using their police and armies to maintain the pandemic and to help provide resources of water, food and medicine to their residents in lockdown.

Indigenous communities across South America have also gone into lockdown as the pandemic could wipe out a whole tribe if it was to enter the community. Tribes have closed their reserves to visitors and have also ordered the suspension of schools and community meetings. They have also instructed their people to practice social distancing to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 and potentially wipe out large numbers of their population.

Struggling due to COVID-19

Despite the early actions of most Latin American countries, they have seen a gradual increase of the virus however, it is likely that the figures could have been worse if these actions were not taken to prevent the further spread of COVID-19. The health care systems across Latin America are facing the pressure.  Some countries, whose health care systems prior to the outbreak of COVID-19 were already struggling, have seen these systems worsen. Mexico’s health care system was severally damaged prior to the outbreak and was rebuilding when the pandemic hit. There was a lack of medical staff and equipment across the board.

Ecuador has also been highly affected by the COVID-19 outbreak with hospitals and cemeteries collapsing under the numbers of ill and dead. The system is struggling to the point where authorities are having difficulty in removing the bodies of those who have died from their homes, leaving families living with their dead love ones and even bodies being left abandoned on the streets.

Venezuela, which continues to be impacted by its political crisis – with two presidents Juan Guaido who is self-proclaimed and supported globally and another President Nicolas Maduro who was elected and inaugurated in January 2019 – has been hit as well by the outbreak. At the end of March, in a bid to curb the growing outbreak, Venezuelan authorities ordered a national quarantine. However, figures are unclear as they have not reported data regarding epidemics for years. The latest COVID-19 figures put the total number of cases in Venezuela at 204 as of April 15.

As of April 15 across Latin America there have been over 72,000 confirmed cases with the number continuing to grow. At least 3,241 fatalities have been recorded, with a large percentage of this being reported in Brazil,s Peru, Chile and Ecuador.

Health Care Workers Targeted

With the growing number of cases and deaths across Latin America, fear has begun to spread and has caused people to react to the pandemic with ignorance. Medical staff across Latin America have begun to face hostility and aggression from the local populations and have even been accused of spreading COVID-19. There have been reports of nurses being attacked, with some being shoved to the ground, incidents of medical staff having bleach thrown on them in order to disinfect them, as well as aggression towards them on public transport and even not being able to use public transport.

A nurse reported she was attacked by a group of children who squirted fruit juice and soda on to her white nurses’ uniform, shouting at her “it’s COVID! Stay away from us.” She was then hit in the face by a mother of one of the children, knocking her to the ground. All in the process of her defending herself for wearing a uniform of a nurse, she broke two fingers in the altercation and is no longer able to do her job. She also reported that at the time of the incident she had not treated any COVID-19 patients. This however is not the first case of hostility towards health care providers. Others have reported that despite being praised as heroes by officials and media outlets for fighting the virus with limited resources they are facing increasing hostility.

Nurses make up 80% of the health care workers across Latin America and play a crucial role in treating COVID-19. These people are not only trying to help but in the process are also putting their own health at risk by working with infected patients. However with now facing the threat of being attacked when they are commuting to and from work, health staff are being advised to travel in plain clothes in a bid to prevent such attack. Due to the rising hostility medical staff and health care workers in Mexico City are being transported to and from work on private hire coaches to prevent attacks. Elsewhere in the region, notably in Panama and Colombia, there have been incidents of drivers banning nurses from public transport while those that have allowed nurses on board have seen reports of these individuals stating that they were given dirty looks by other passengers.  Another, health care professional reported that his building administration have banned him from using the elevator and the common areas of his apartment building because he might give other residents COVID-19. As a result, he has to climb six flight of stairs to get to his home every day. With every case of aggression that is reported there is room to believe that a lot of cases are going unreported over fear of retaliation for reporting these attacks.

It is not just medical workers who are facing such aggression, normal residents and television presenters are also facing such acts. Television producer Rodrigo Fragoso in Mexico City reported that when he had tested positive for COVID-19, he faced hostility from his neighbours with them throwing bleach at his front door to disinfect it and them preventing his friends and family from delivering food, or water. It got to the point where he reported the neighbour’s actions to the authorities, resulting in an apology from his neighbours.

Ignorance, worry and collective panic is spreading just as quickly as COVID-19 cases are across Latin America. The actions of these people are most often due to them wanting to protect their families however, it is being carried out in wrong way. The populations need to be educated on COVID-19 and that health care workers need to be respected and protected by the authorities whether that be in tighter controls or providing private travel. Every day, health care workers are trying to protect the populations in Latin America and prevent the further spread of COVID-19, while at the same time putting themselves at risk, which could cost them their health and life.

Cabo Delgado: Old insurgent, New tactic

In recent weeks insurgent terror has once again besieged Cabo Delgado, Mozambique’s northernmost province, in what has been a spectacular display of brazen attacks, marking a notable shift in tactics by the shadowy insurgent group.

The group that goes by several monikers which include, Ahlu Sunna Wa-Jamma (ASWJ) and Al-Shabaab; though there is no formal connection to the Somalian regional terror group of the same name, has been responsible for up to 1,000 killings and the displacement of approximately 100, 000 people since October 2017. Since the rise of the insurgency, the violence has mainly been concentrated in the district of Mocimboa da Praia and the surrounding towns and territory within the province of Cabo Delgado, in what would have been described as a brutal low-intensity conflict. The operational tactics that marked this conflict had previously favoured the targeting of civilians with a penchant for widespread human rights abuses, relegating its modus operandi to a fairly unsophisticated and opportunist execution. The insurgents most recent activities point to a more pronounced ambition for territorial acquisition and infamy parallel to established terror groups like ISIS. The feasibility for ASWJ to achieve such a feat within the next 6 months to a year is unlikely. However, ASWJ’s demonstrated ability to widen its tactics and range of targets is indicative of a growing confidence and with the growing confidence is the increased likelihood for further brazen attacks against the state or other symbolic targets that help reinforce their newly stated ambitions for Sharia Law in Mozambique.

The 23 and 26 March pre-dawn attacks on Mocimboa da Praia and Quissanga respectively, were notable for a variety of reasons; first, they were the most daring assaults ASWJ had ever mounted since the beginning of their campaign of terror in October 2017.  In an audacious attack, the group struck Mocimboa da Praia by land and sea, hoisting its flag over police headquarters and exercising control over the area for one day. ASWJ launched a similar attack on the district capital of Quissanga. The violence which resulted in the death of about 20- 30 members of Mozambique’s security forces and the occupation of Mocimboa da Praia for a day, was largely focused on targeting government forces and property. There was a visible effort not to harm civilians and instead win their hearts and minds by redistributing stolen food, medicine and fuel to ‘loyal’ residents. The exercise seems to have been less of a violent escapade, but more of a coordinated PR stunt to demonstrate strength in taking on government forces and garner potential sympathy from the community which is likely to lead to success in recruiting more members. The timing of the attacks from a cynical standpoint could not have come at a more opportune moment; the amalgamation of a variety of factors, not necessarily connected to ASWJ, have enabled the group to stage their attacks and further their aim with relative impunity.

There have been a series of security issues that have competed for the Mozambican government’s priority leading to a lack of sustained focus in any one area, namely the COVID-19 pandemic which has resulted in the confirmation of at least 28 positive cases, with 14 cases in Cabo Delgado. The economy of Mozambique, much like others in Southern Africa, has not fared well in the wake of the virus outbreak, particularly the delayed launch of major Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) projects by oil companies like ExxonMobil and Total which is estimated to be worth $60 billion, is potentially a major setback to the economy. The practicality of lockdown in the country has not translated well with the local population where demographics, social structures and behaviours, and set-up of the economy mean more problems are being created rather than solved. Cabo Delgado is historically an economically challenged province and the uncertainty that the coronavirus breeds has distracted the government’s ability to focus wholeheartedly on the growing ASWJ crisis. Other factors that have resulted in a competing set of priorities for the government have been the two major Cyclones in 2019, that have left tens of thousands of people still in need of aid, one of the worst hit areas from Cyclone Kenneth in April 2019 was Cabo Delgado. The slow government response in addressing the matter of rebuilding the affected communities is likely to engender local support for ASWJ, as people seek to vent frustrations and garner quick solutions for their woes. The hearts and minds operation between 23 and 26 March stands as an example of ASWJ attempts to garner fealty from disenfranchised communities.  Furthermore, despite the government managing to broker a peace deal in August 2019 with the formerly hostile opposition party Renamo, its breakaway militant group, Renamo Military Junta, has sustained its own campaign of violence which has also been escalating in recent weeks and days. None of these secondary factors that the Mozambican government has to contend with are the result of any concerted effort in strategic sabotage or ambush by ASWJ, rather it appears as though this is another serendipitous set of circumstances that have enabled ASWJ  the opportunity to cause maximum damage as efficiently as possible in order to further their cause.

The 23 and 26 March attacks were significant also because the normally reclusive insurgent group made known  its aims by filming a video in front of the police headquarters in Quissanga where they rejected “the wealth of this world” and called for the fall of the Mozambican government with the implementation of Sharia law in the area. Prior to the ISIS flag hoist on 23 March, ASWJ’s affiliation with ISIS Central Africa Province had remained inconclusive, and apart from openly affiliating itself to ISIS, there is still very little that is known about ASWJ, its ultimate aims or how extensive this newly affirmed connection to ISIS is. It cannot be determined whether the group shares the same largescale territorial acquisition ambitions as ISIS. However, what is highly likely is that ASWJ has its sights set on controlling Cabo Delgado, access to its oil and gas reserves and being perceived as the benevolent alternative to an inattentive government in the local community. The donning of ISIS regalia does not necessarily translate to a complete merger with ISIS’s remaining core, rather more of a means to an end for ASWJ aims that remain largely ambiguous despite their latest public announcement.

The absence of a coherent government-led counterinsurgency strategy against the growing Islamist insurgency in Cabo Delgado may be the catalyst that is enabling the ASWJ’s growth in confidence.  The need for a restructured Mozambican military and security forces has never been more apparent as they face a complex, multi-layered and asymmetrical conflict. Although President Nyusi has acknowledged a need for foreign assistance, the type that been provided in the form of private contractors like the Russian mercenaries, the Wagner group, has proven ineffective, as they too have underestimated the complexity of the growing insurgency.  While there are no quick wins to solving the threat of increased Islamist insurgent activities in Cabo Delgado, a holistic government -led counterinsurgency strategy will need to be developed, and areas where foreign assistance would be most effective will need to be identified. What is emergent is that ASWJ is taking notes on the current shortcomings of the Mozambican government and using that to its advantage in order to find increasingly innovative and bolder tactics to further its aims.

COVID-19: Cybercriminals are Profiting from the Pandemic

On March 11, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the outbreak of COVID-19, a respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus, a global pandemic. On March 13, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom stated that Europe had become the “epicentre” of the outbreak and that, apart from China, Europe had more reported cases and deaths than the rest of the world combined. In response, most countries declared a state of emergency and enacted emergency laws in order to limit the spread. Among other things, measures introduced included closing borders; banning large public gatherings; and giving police powers to fine and arrest those violating these measures.

This biological threat naturally distracts from the prospect of virtual threats. As Europe’s focus is drawn towards containing the spread of COVID-19 infections, cybercriminals take advantage of the distraction to spread online infections and scams to profit from the public’s fear. Europol has received reports of intensifying cyber-attacks in almost all 27 member states. Spokesman Jan Op Gen Oorth said they had seen an increase in malware and ransomware attacks seeking to profit from the global crisis. According to Romanian cybersecurity leader Bitdefender, there was an increase of more than 475 percent in the number of malicious reports related to COVID-19 by March 16, as compared to February. In addition, we have seen an increase in the creation of COVID-related domains. Fitspatrick, director of HPCsec, said that as much as 650 domain names associated with the coronavirus were identified in the small period of March 19-23. The majority were considered very likely to be used in phishing messages.

During the crisis cybercriminals are taking advantage of people’s desire to keep up to date with new developments. Many criminals are therefore impersonating entities such as the WHO, NATO, or UNICEF. Their “phishing” e-mails specifically mention COVID-19 related information to encourage people to click on links or files that download malware. For instance, an e-mail might claim to have a list of pharmacies that distribute protective drugs where anyone opening the attachment has their computer infected with viruses. Some viruses, like spyware, can steal information like usernames and passwords, and even turn on your microphone and camera. Other viruses, like ransomware, can be used to blackmail you by locking down your computer. It encrypts files which render the data they contain inaccessible until a ransom is paid for the decryption key. If you don’t pay you lose all your data.

Over the coming weeks and months, attackers are expected to continue to exploit the pandemic to launch ransomware attacks. Targets range from individuals, to small and medium businesses, to larger organisations. Almost one-third of attacks related to COVID-19 target public authorities and healthcare institutions. Health organisations are especially vulnerable. Because they are under significant time constraints and find themselves pressed at capacity due to COVID-19 they are more likely to pay the required ransoms. This is exactly what the hackers are counting on. In addition, many hospitals lack the necessary cyber security to ward off such attacks.

The consequences of these attacks can be particularly devastating for the health sector. For instance, these attacks can lock down computers that hold electronic medical records. This leaves doctors and nurses without access to critical information about their patients’ medical histories and dosages of drugs required. One example is the recent cyber-attack launched at the Brno University Hospital, which has one of the largest COVID-19 testing facilities in the Czech Republic. The attack caused an immediate computer shutdown which forced the hospital to cancel surgeries and relocate patients. A week later, the hospital still had no means of storing data which slowed processes and potentially endangered lives. In this way, the attacks do not only have economic consequences but can actually put lives at risk.

The private sector is also at risk. By analysing previous attacks during global epidemics and contemporary phishing campaigns based on COVID-19, security firm RiskIQ predicts that attackers will target large corporations relying on markets and supply chains that originate in coronavirus-affected regions. “Personnel at these organisations have heightened interest in news and developments related to the virus, potentially making them more susceptible to social engineering that tricks them into clicking on malicious links,” the company says. In this way, cybercriminals rely on people to make a mistake. They take advantage of human traits such as curiosity and concern about the ongoing emergency situation.

Some of the best protective measures are therefore to prevent them from getting to you in the first place. Firms like Autostore use antivirus software, which looks for abnormal activity and removes malicious software, and web filter, which can filter out suspicious e-mails. In the event that a phishing e-mail still somehow finds its way into their inbox, employees know what to look for as the firm regularly conducts awareness training. For instance, Autostore has conducted simulated phishing attacks to help employees distinguish these e-mails from authentic ones.

In terms of what to look for, the National Cyber Security Centre recently gave the following examples of phishing e-mail subject lines: “2020 Coronavirus Updates”, “2019-nCov: Coronavirus outbreak in your city (Emergency), “2019-nCov: New confirmed cases in your City”.  Another red flag is poor spelling and grammar. These e-mails will also often imply a sense of urgency to scare a person into downloading a file or clicking the link. For instance, it might say that the attachment has urgent information about the coronavirus. It is also a common tactic to put two very similar looking characters by each other so that you don’t spot the mistake. The link might for example start with https; instead of https:. In addition, if you hover over the link without clicking on it, you’ll be able to see that the real address it leads to is different than what it first appears to be.

Managing the real-life virus is difficult enough without having to worry about cyber “viruses”. Indeed, that is what hackers are counting on. “In the past, cybercriminals have found success using disasters and global epidemics in ransomware and other malware attacks and developed a pattern we expect will continue with the coronavirus,” says Aaron Inness, Protective Intelligence Analyst at RiskIQ. The cost to attackers is low and the gain potentially high. Consequently, the risk of cyber-attacks is now higher than usual. It is therefore important that both individuals and organisations remain vigilant and practice good cyber hygiene throughout the pandemic.

Attrition in Iraq: Explaining Rocket Attacks Against US-led Coalition Forces and US Assets

On March 12^th 2020 eighteen small rockets hit Iraq’s Camp Taji military base situated north of Baghdad hosting United States-led coalition troops fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. The rocket attack killed one British and two American soldiers in addition to wounding 12 others. On March 14^th a new wave of attacks targeting Camp Taji for the second time injured three coalition troops and at least two Iraqi soldiers. At least three rockets struck Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone near the American Embassy on the 17^th of March and on the 26^th of March two rockets again hit Baghdad’s Green Zone landing near Baghdad’s Operations Command which coordinates Iraq’s police and military forces. Rocket attacks against US-led coalition forces and US assets are not new.  On the 16^th of February 2020 several rockets landed near the US Embassy striking an Iraqi base hosting coalition forces in Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone. Prior to this, on the 13^th of February 2020 a Katyusha rocket hit an Iraqi base hosting US troops in the remote province of Kirkuk. Two separate rocket attacks occurred in January 2020 and in December 27^th 2019 a barrage of 30 rockets targeted the Iraqi base in Kirkuk killing a US contractor. No group has claimed responsibility for these attacks, but the US places the blame on militia groups within the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces such as Kataib Hezbollah and have in the past retaliated against Kataib Hezbollah in particular.

For instance, after the March 12^th rocket attacks, the US retaliated on March 13^th with airstrikes targeting five weapons stores used by the militia group including facilities housing arms which were reportedly used in previous attacks. Instead the strikes killed three regular Iraqi soldiers, two police officers and a civilian as well as damaging an unfinished civilian airport in Karbala. Moreover, after the December 27^th attacks in Kirkuk, the US retaliated via airstrikes killing 25 Kataib Hezbollah fighters. There is reason to assume PMF militia groups are behind such attacks. For example, hours before the attack on the 16^th of February, one PMF militia leader from Harakat al-Nujuba announced a countdown for ejecting US forces from Iraq. The PMF are mainly backed by Iran. Iran wields considerable influence in Iraq and is generally hostile to the US. On the 3^rd of January 2020 the US killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and leader of Kataib Hezbollah and PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Furthermore, credible news sources such as Aljazeera and Foreign Policy are also claiming that Iraqi militia groups within the PMF are to blame for the rocket attacks. If elements of the PMF are involved in such attacks, then not claiming responsibility may be advantageous. Given the umbrella group’s ties to Iran it is possible that they are attempting to shield Iran from US political and military retaliation.

The Popular Mobilization Forces, also known as the Popular Mobilization Units or Hashd al-Shaabi in Arabic, is a state sponsored umbrella group for approximately forty Iraqi militia groups, the majority of which are backed by Iran. Although predominantly Shia, the PMF includes some Sunni, Christian and Yazidi groups. The PMF has its roots in the war against the Islamic state of Iraq and Syria. At the beginning of the conflict with ISIS in 2014, the powerful Shi’ite cleric Ayatollah Ali Sistani issued  a fatwa, an Islamic ruling on a point of law given by a recognised authority, rallying 100,000 young men to join the organization. The then Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki used these militia groups to combat ISIS and maintain his influence in predominantly Sunni areas. A good number of the PMF militia groups have their roots in older organizations such as the Badr Brigade led by Hadi al-Amiri who fought alongside Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980’s. Due to the war against ISIS,  The PMU’s presence in Iraq ballooned and their influence expanded owning their own warehouses for munitions and allegedly prisons. The turning point for the PMF came in 2017 when  it was officially integrated within Iraq’s security forces. Instead of merging the militia groups with regular forces the PMF was successful in solidifying its status as a distinct force. The militia groups preserved their former ties especially with Iran who backs the PMF. Thus, escalating tensions between the US and Iran meant that tensions would also rise between the US and PMF militia groups.

Although the group or groups responsible for the series of rocket attacks are not making themselves known, the strategy behind such attacks is quite clear; to force the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. This resembles the strategy of attrition, one of five strategies used by groups engaged in terrorism in order to achieve political goals according to Andrew Kydd and Barbara Walter in their 2006 paper The Strategies of Terrorism. For Kydd and Walter, terrorism is a rational choice for groups seeking to achieve a political goal through violence and can yield results. They point to various incidents in which groups engaged in terrorism achieved their political goals. For instance, the US withdrew from Lebanon after the 1983 suicide attack against the US marine barracks in Beirut, the US pulled its troops out of Saudi Arabia two years after the 9/11 attacks and the Philippines recalled its forces from Iraq after a kidnapping. Kydd and Walter’s five strategies of terrorism are intimidation, provocation, spoiling, outbidding and attrition. The strategy of attrition is intended to inflict costs in order to persuade the enemy to yield to the demands of the group conducting the attack. Attrition is considered the most important strategy used by groups engaged in terrorism because the greater the costs the organization is able to inflict the more credible its threat to inflict future costs according to Kydd and Walter.

Attrition strategies compels either the government or occupying forces to reconsider its objectives. Continuing their objectives means incurring greater costs in financial, material and human resources. Thus, groups engaged in terrorism seek to inflict the highest costs on life, infrastructure and other resources. Hamas’s late master bombmaker Yahya Ayyash wrote in a letter to the organization’s leadership. He said “we paid a high price when we used only sling shots and stones. We need to exert more pressure, make the costs of the occupation that much more expensive in human lives, that much more unbearable”. The outcome of attrition strategies is dependent on three variables: the state or occupying force’s interest in the disputed matter, constraints regarding the state or occupying force’s ability to retaliate and its sensitivity to the cost of violence. For example, democracies, such as the US, are far more sensitive to the cost of life primarily due the importance of public opinion within democracies.

The security implications of the use of this strategy by the PMF could be significant. At face value it seems as if attrition is working. None of the 5000 US troops in Iraq have so far left the country but the US has pulled out of three key military bases including al-Qaim and the K1 airbase located in the remote northern province of Kirkuk, the latter base having been targeted previously. The US now plans to consolidate its forces in two locations in Iraq. However, the danger of continuing such attacks is the possibility of a military confrontation between the US and Iran that can lead to a full-scale war. This will mean a greater amount of US presence within Iraq and the Middle East as whole running contrary to PMF and Iranian desires. Moreover, the last military confrontation the US and Iran have had was sparked by the US killing of Qassem Soleimani who led the Quds force of the IRGC responsible for extra-terrestrial clandestine operations which included supporting the PMF militia groups in Iraq. Iran responded by firing missiles at a base in Iraq hosting US troops causing a hundred US soldiers to have brain injuries. It is likely that another confrontation between the two states could occur again if the attacks continue.