MS Risk Blog

West Africa Piracy Report

Hijacks

• 12 August 2013 – About 11 pirates armed with guns boarded and hijacked a Marshall Islands-flagged chemical tanker, the SP Atlanta, at anchor at 0330 LT in Lagos Anchorage, Nigeria.  They stole the crew members personal belongings and caused minor injuries to those on board the tanker.  Update (13 August 2013) – The vessel was released and safely arrived at Lagos anchorage.  No further details have been released.

Unsuccessful Attacks/Robberies

• 15 August 2013 – About 8 – 10 robbers in a speed boat tried to place a hook to the railings of a chemical tanker at 0240 UTC at Lagos anchorage, Nigeria.  Robbers were spotted by the crew and the alarm was raised.  Other ships were informed on the VHF Radio.  Local authorities were informed and a naval patrol arrived at the location and conducted a search, resulting in the boat moving away from the vessel.  The vessel has been reported safe.
• 12 August 2013 – Nigeria-flagged OSV came under attack at 2140 UTC, about 35 nautical miles off the Nigerian Coast.  Two gunboats with approximately 7 – 8 pirates on board fired upon the OSV.  A patrol boat was in the location and responded to the emergency calls.  Patrol boat exchanged fire with the pirates.  Pirate boats then headed north at a high speed.
• 11 August 2013 – Robbers in a small skiff approached an anchored Liberia-flagged product tanker, FPMC 25, at 0005 LT, Lagos anchorage, Nigeria.  Master raised the alarm and all crew members were mustered into the citadel.  The armed security team on board the vessel fired warning shots, resulting in the skiff moving away.
• 31 July 2013 (Late Report) – Robbers boarded an anchored Cayman Islands UK-flagged bulk carrier, the Athos, at 2300 LT while in Abidjan anchorage, Cote d’Ivoire.  The robbers used a long pole with a hook in order to board the vessel.  The crew members on board the bulk carrier spotted the robbers and raised the alarm.  Upon hearing this, the robbers escaped on a wooden boat.  All crew has been reported safe and nothing was stolen.
• 30 July 2013 (Late Report) – A gunboat claiming to be a Nigerian boat called a Hong-Kong-flagged chemical tanker, the High Jupiter, on VHF, requesting details of the tanker, cargo, last and next ports.  The call was made at 1345 LT while the tanker was about 45 nautical miles south of Brass, Nigeria.  This information was passed to the gun boat.  Around fifteen minutes later, the gun boat approached the tanker at a high speed, demanding that the tanker stop and permit boarding.  The Master informed that he would not be stopping as the area was a high risk for piracy attacks.  The gunboat threatened and followed the tanker for 20 minutes during which two shots were fired in the air.  The Master of the chemical tanker raised the alarm over VHF and requested ships in the vicinity to relay its message to port control which was not responding to its calls.  Upon hearing the VHF alarm, the gunboat moved away from the chemical tanker.  The tanker and its crew members has been reported safe.

 Weather Analysis

• Gulf of Guinea – South-southwest winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 4 – 6 feet.

• Extended Forecast – South-southwest winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 4 – 6 feet.

• Synoptic Discussion – The Gulf of Guinea is under the influence of high and low pressure systems, bringing strong southerly winds and moisture into the area.  Expect mostly cloudy conditions with rain showers and possible thunderstorms.

Keita Officially Announced as President Of Mali

Officials in Mali have announced that Ibrahim Boubacar Keita is the new leader, confirming that the ex-Prime Minister had won a landslide victory.

Figures for Sunday’s second round of voting were announced on live television by the Interior Minister, showing that Mr. Keita had won an overwhelming 77.6 percent of the vote, with his rival Soumalia Cisse gaining 22.4 percent.  According to Interior Minister Sinko Coulibaly, the turnout for the presidential elections was recorded at 45.8 percent, while just 93,000 ballots were spoiled, compared with 400,000 in the first round.  Former Finance Minister Cisse had already conceded the run-off vote to Mr. Keta after it became apparent on Monday morning that victory was beyond his grasp.  The 68-year-old will now oversee more than US $4 billion (£2.6 billion) in foreign aid promised to rebuild the country after a turbulent eighteen months.  The new government which he will lead will also be obliged to open peace talks with the separatist Tuareg rebels within two months following a ceasefire that enabled voting to take place in the northern regions of the country.  Cementing national reconciliation will likely be a challenge for the newly formed government as many in the southern regions of the country continue to be hostile towards funneling more of Mali’s already scarce resources to a region they see as being responsible for the country’s plight.  In turn, there is a continued unease between a number of ethnic groups, not only between the north and south, but also within the north itself.

While these elections are expected to provide the conflict-scarred nation a fresh start, Mr. Keita’s regime begins already mired in controversy after it emerged on Wednesday that Captain Amadou Sanogo, who led a group of fellow mid-level officers to overthrow then-president Amadou Toumani Toure on March 22 of last year, had been promoted.  Just two days after Ibrahim Boubacar Keita emerged as Mali’s president-elect, a defence ministry spokesman confirmed that “today, the cabinet approved the nomination of Captain Amadou Sanogo for the grade of Lieutenant-General.”  Human Rights Watch (HRW) has described Sanogo’s elevation from captain to the rank of lieutenant-general as “outrageous,” further adding that “Sanogo and forces loyal to him have been implicated in extremely serious abuses, including arbitrary detention, enforced disappearances, attacks against journalists and torture.”  Most of these crimes were committed during 2012 in the months after the March coup d’etat.  The HRW also noted that “instead of being rewarded with this promotion, Sanogo should have been investigated for his alleged involvement in these acts.”

Egypt Update

For the first time since 2011, most citizens of Egypt obeyed a 2100h curfew, following the deadliest day since the country’s uprisings began in 2011. The nation has declared a month-long state of emergency following the deadliest day since the start of the 2011 revolution, with curfews in effect in 14 of the 27 provinces.

Following the removal of Egyptian President and Muslim Brotherhood member Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood and pro-Morsi supporters engaged in nearly six weeks of protest. Middle Eastern and Western diplomats attempted to negotiate a political resolution of inclusion, however the attempts failed and protesters remained firmly in place.

Interior Minister Mohamad Ibrahim declared “Zero Hour” yesterday morning (14 August), initializing a plan to remove pro-Morsi protesters from camps at Nahda Square in Giza, and the camp near Rabaa al-Adawiyah mosque in Cairo. Operations began at 7 a.m. local time, with security forces first allowing safe passage for protesters to leave the site voluntarily prior to the clearing operations. Nahda Square in Giza was cleared within three hours; the camp at Rabaa Al-Adawiyah Mosque took 12 hours.

In a televised statement, the Egyptian Interior Minister described a scene in which protesters in Rabaa camp had created barricades, and were armed with weapons ranging from small firearms to “heavy weapons and rocket-propelled grenades.”  Early in the day, over 200 protesters from both camps were arrested for possessing firearms, bladed weapons, grenades, and gas canisters. Ibrahim continued, “Many protesters fired excessively from roof tops on security forces.”

Violence Spreads

Egyptian police troops and anti-riot squads continued with the forcible removal of the protesters. Violence escalated as protesters accused the forces of firing into the crows, igniting a rapid escalation of violence. Throughout the day, mayhem spread across Egypt. Muslim Brotherhood supporters attacked several police stations, including firing a rocket-propelled grenade into a station in Kerdasa, in Giza. A news broadcast showed Muslim Brotherhood supporters pushing an armoured vehicle off Cairo’s October 6 Bridge onto the road below. In addition, at least seven Coptic Christian churches, and over 40 Coptic-owned or operated institutions throughout Egypt were targeted, including bookshops and pharmacies. Coptic rights organizations say the numbers are a low estimate.

By mid-afternoon, Muslim Brotherhood protesters had attacked the historic Library at Alexandria and the Malawy Museum in Minya, with reports of looting of some of its contents. The attacks sparked an immediate and indefinite shut-down of all ancient or historic sites and museums across the nation. All branches of the central bank were closed, and train services running north and south were suspended to prevent transport of protestors.

According to the Ministry of Health, by 7 am on the 15^th, there were 525 casualties, including 43 policemen, and 3,717 injuries. Representatives from the Muslim Brotherhood have placed the number of death at 2,000. Among those killed were three journalists: Mick Deane, 61, a cameraman for British broadcaster Sky News; Habiba Ahmed Abd Elaziz, 26, a reporter for the UAE-based Gulf News; and Ahmed Abdel Gawad of Egypt’s state-run newspaper, Al Akhbar. Deane and Elaziz were shot to death; however there is no information on how Gawad was killed.

Baradei Resigns

In Cairo, Interim Vice President El Baradei offered his resignation in protest to the violence sparked by the forcible removal of the protests. He had argued for a peaceful solution; allowing the protesters to remain in place and letting the gatherers decrease from attrition, as individuals became more resigned the reality that Morsi would not return, and they turn their focus to other issues, such as returning to work or finding means to support their family. In his resignation letter, he states, “It has become hard for me to keep bearing responsibility for decisions that I did not approve of and warned against their consequences. I cannot be responsible before God for a single drop of blood.”

The announcement caused very mixed reaction; some say the leader abandoned Egypt at a tough time. The Tamarod (rebel) campaign, which spearheaded the 30 June protests which resulted in Morsi’s removal from power, issued a statement on Facebook, calling El Baradei’s resignation an “escape from responsibility,” and adding, “We were hoping that El Baradei would do his role in explaining the situation to the global public opinion and international community and clarify that Egypt is facing organised terrorism, which highly endangers the Egyptian national security.” the statement read. Ahmed Darrag, a high ranking leader of El Baradei’s Constitution Party, denounced the decision and announced his resignation from the party.

Still others praised his decision. Khaled el-Masry, spokesman for the April 6 Youth Movement, says he “completely understands” the decision to resign from his post. In a statement, el-Masry said,
“El-Baradei has humanitarian biases as well as biases for justice and freedom that contradict bloodshed, especially if it happens while he is in a public post.”

International reaction

The military actions received international condemnation and warning. On Wednesday, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned the violence used by Egyptian security forces to “in the strongest terms.” Through his spokesman, Eduardo del Buey, he said, “In the aftermath of today’s violence, the secretary-general urges all Egyptians to concentrate their efforts on promoting genuinely inclusive reconciliation. While recognizing that political clocks do not run backwards, the secretary-general also believes firmly that violence and incitement from any side are not the answers to the challenges Egypt faces.”

In a televised statement, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called the Egyptian military’s actions “deplorable” and ”counter to Egyptian aspirations for peace, inclusion and genuine democracy.” Michael Mann, a spokesman for EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton said, “Violence won’t lead to any solution and we urge the Egyptian authorities to proceed with utmost restraint.”

Turkey President Erdogan has urged the UN Security Council and Arab League to act quickly: “It is clear that the international community, by supporting the military coup and remaining silent over previous massacres, has encouraged the current administration to carry out today’s intervention, instead of protecting democracy and constitutional legitimacy in Egypt.” Leaders from Iran have also warned of the risk of civil war.

The Egyptian Ambassador to the US called it “the least bad option.”

Since the initial uprising, police had largely and deliberately disappeared from the streets. As a result, Egyptians have complained about lax law and order, and an increase in criminal activity. However, since Mursi’s removal, the police have been more visible in the streets, while also implementing a public relations campaign to improve their image, despite Mursi’s failure to develop any police reform during his term in office. Ibrahim’s claim to restore security to the Mubarak era, while well-intended, brought reminders and fear of a notoriously oppressive security force.

Conclusion

The Muslim Brotherhood will not ended its protests, however it is likely that only hard-line protesters will remain resistant and active following the clashes of the 14^th. With the actions taken yesterday, the Egyptian government has essentially established a baseline for what it is willing to tolerate.

The scale of violence during the security operations is likely to have put an end to any hope negotiations between the army-backed government and the Muslim Brotherhood. In fact, allegations of violence on the part of the Brotherhood supporters could be used to reinstate a ban on the group, including its political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party. With less than 20% of Egyptians supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, it is most likely that outrage at this action would emanate from outside of Egypt, rather than inside, posing a threat from radicalised actors entering the nation and acting on behalf of the group.

In order for the existing government to remain effective, it is imperative not only to focus on the security situation, but the economy. Economic improvement, even with incremental change, will assure the Egyptian populace that conditions are trending upward. To many outside of Egypt, this struggle is abuot religious versus secular government. However at the root of the clashes is the dire need for economic stability at all levels of income. If the government is swift in enacting security, economic, and political reforms, internal confrontations are likely to decrease. Yet the threat will still remain in place from those who support the concept of an Islamist party-led nation.

Buddhist Mob Attacks Mosque in Sri Lanka

The Sri Lankan government says a solution has been found to the dispute that led to ethnic violence flaring in Columbo over the weekend, after a mob of Buddhists attacked a mosque and injured worshippers there. Special police units were deployed to deal with the unrest and a curfew was imposed. Despite the supposed resolution, serious security issues remain in light of simmering tensions between Sri Lanka’s majority Buddhist population and minority groups, and come in light of significant clashes between Muslims and Buddhists throughout parts of South East Asia over the past year.

Trouble began on Saturday, August 10^th, when a mob of Buddhists attacked a mosque in the Grandpass area of the capital, Columbo during evening prayers. Hundreds of local Muslims responded by taking to the streets, some armed with sticks, while the authorities sent in police reinforcements, including the Special Task Force commando unit, to try and maintain law and order. A curfew was imposed from Saturday evening until Sunday morning in order to disperse the crowds. 12 people were injured in the disturbances, including 2 police officers.

Muslim ministers in President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s government released a joint statement saying “The lukewarm and ineffective measures taken by law enforcement agencies on previous occasions…seem to have emboldened some extremist groups who seem determined to create chaos in the country”. Police Inspector General N K Ilangagoon called on the populace to “support the police to maintain law and order”. A spokesman for the Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) (or “Buddhist Power Force”), a hardline group that has been trying to win over Sri Lanka Buddhists to support its anti-Muslim campaign, denied his organisation had any involvement in the events.

The incident stems from a dispute surrounding the relocation of a mosque in the area. The old mosque was earmarked for destruction to make way for new construction and after protests from hard-line Buddhists, and the new mosque had only been open a month. It had already seen protests from Buddhist monks, who had however purportedly agreed Muslims could continue praying there throughout Ramadan. Muslims in the area say the Sri Lankan government’s religious affairs ministry had given them permission to continue using the site, and had provided special police protection. Following the weekend’s disturbances, a solution has been reached that allows a return to the site of the old mosque.

However, despite a resolution of this particular issue it is extremely unlikely this will see a reduction in the continuing ethnic disputes in Sri Lanka. The country is 70% Sinhalese Buddhists, with Muslims making up 9% of the population. They were seen as remaining broadly loyal to the state during the war with the Tamil Tigers; however attacks on Muslims have been increasing over the past year led by hard-line groups of monks such as the BBS, which promote an ultra-nationalist ideology that claims Muslims are fostering anti-Sinhalese extremism and attitudes. The president of the Sri Lanka Muslim Council says over 20 mosques have been attacked since last year, while recent months have seen major ethnic unrest surrounding the distribution of halal food and similar. Christian buildings and worshippers have also been attacked.

Muslim community leaders have so far remained broadly conciliatory and have stood on platforms with moderate Buddhists, while many Sinhalese express disquiet about the activities of the BBS. However, there is evidence that the strident nationalism the BBS promotes not only resonates with large parts of the population but enjoys top – level political support – powerful defence minister Gotabhaya Rajapaska (brother of the president), was a guest at the opening of a BBS training school and said in a speech “It is the monks who protect our country, religion and race. No one should doubt these clergy. We’re here to give you encouragement.”

The incidents in Sri Lanka also come in light of continuing ethnic trouble across the broader South East Asian region. Major ethnic violence continues in Myanmar (Burma) between the majority Rakhine Buddhist people and minority Rohingya Muslims which has left many dead and caused chaos across numerous provinces. Last month, a bombing at one of Buddhism’s holiest sites, the Bohd Gaya temple complex in India, was attributed to Islamist extremists and explicitly connected with the broader religious conflict across SE Asia.

Currently, there is no direct threat to individuals, including Muslim ones, in Sri Lanka. It is worth noting that no one has so far been killed due to the ethnic clashes in the country, unlike incidents in Myanmar. The underlying threat from terrorism in Sri Lanka is also currently low. However, an awareness of the potential security risks should be maintained at all times. Any and all demonstrations should be avoided, and local news stations should be monitored in case of unrest or the imposition of curfews.

Cisse Admits Defeat in Mali’s Presidential Elections

Mali’s presidential elections have been won by Ibrahim Boubacar Keita after his rival admitted defeat just one day after the second round of elections were held.

Although official results have not been announced, former Malian Finance Minister Soumaila Cisse conceded defeat against ex-Prime Minister (1994 – 2002) Keita on Monday, announcing that he had “went to see him to congratulate him and wish him good luck for Mali.”  His defeat  came hours after electoral and security sources had indicated that Mr. Keita had pulled ahead with two-thirds of the votes counted after Sunday’s second round of the election.  This was confirmed by Mr. Cisses’ spokesman, who indicated that his candidate had admitted defeat after it became clear the Mr. Keita had won the polls in Gao, which is the largest town in northern Mali.  Both Mr. Keita and Mr. Cisse had lost out in the 2002 presidential elections to Amadou Toumani Toure, who was overthrown by a military junta in March of last year, just weeks before the end of his final term in office.  Mr. Keita will now face the daunting task of rebuilding a country that is still reeling from more than a year of turmoil.

During weeks of campaigning, Mr. Keita became known for his blunt speech, his refusal to compromise and his reputation for toughness.  Throughout his campaign, he vowed to unify Mali if elected, stating that “for Mali’s honor, I will bring peace and security.  I will revive dialogue between all the sons of our nation and I will gather our people around the values that have built our history:  dignity, integrity, courage and hard work.”  His top priority will be to secure lasting peace for northern Mali, which has seen five violent rebellions since the country gained its independence from France in 1960.  The 68-year-old will now oversee more than US $4 billion (£2.6 billion) in foreign aid promised to rebuild the country after a turbulent eighteen months.  The new government which he will lead will also be obliged to open peace talks with the separatist Tuareg rebels within two months following a ceasefire that enabled voting to take place in the northern regions of the country.  Cementing national reconciliation will likely be a challenge for the newly formed government as many in the southern regions of the country continue to be hostile towards funneling more of Mali’s already scarce resources to a region they see as being responsible for the country’s plight.  In turn, there is a continued unease between a number of ethnic groups, not only between the north and south, but also within the north itself.

The European Union’s election observation mission has given the elections a positive assessments, stating that it complied with international standards in “99 percent” of Mali’s polling stations.  European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton has welcomed what she calls “a credible and transparent” election.  A statement released by her office also noted that the EU pledged to support efforts to “build a durable peace and restore national unity” in the West African country.  Meanwhile the United States has signaled that it was prepared to resume aid to Mali following the election.  Marie Harf, deputy spokeswoman at the State Department, hailed Mali’s interim government for “securing a peaceful and orderly environment in which Malians were able to vote,” further adding that “we’ve made clear that following the return of a democratically elected government, we will seek to normalize our foreign assistance to Mali.”  The United States was legally forces to suspend military aid to Mali after the coup in March of last year.