MS Risk Blog

Egypt Update

Following two car bombing attacks on 11 September, the Egyptian government has redoubled its efforts to eradicate the terrorist elements in the Sinai Peninsula, and stem the flow of radical ideologies in Nile Valley Egypt.

On 11 September, a car bomb was detonated at the Egyptian Military intelligence headquarters in Rafah, on the border of the Gaza Strip in North Sinai, killing nine and wounded several. Reports indicate that the car bomb was detonated by a suicide bomber following an attack by rocket propelled grenades. The two story-building which housed the Sinai branch of military intelligence collapsed, burying an unspecified number of troops. Among the wounded were ten soldiers and seven civilians, three of which were women.

A second attack occurred at an army checkpoint near the intelligence headquarters, targeting an armoured personnel carrier. The remains of both suicide bombers have been recovered. An unnamed authority has described the remains of the attackers as having “darker skin, implying they may have been of African origin,” and adding that the explosives were complicated and unlikely to be made by Sinai-based terrorist groups. However, the Sinai-based militant group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis has claimed responsibility for the attacks in a statement posted on their website. The statement explains that the group had killed at least six soldiers and also claimed responsibility for the assassination attempt against Egypt’s interior minister last week in Cairo. The group vowed to conduct more attacks in revenge for the military operation against supporters of ousted president Mohamed Morsi on 14 August, and called on all Muslims in Egypt to stay away from military and interior ministry institutions.

Meanwhile, another militant group, Ansar Jerusalem, has claimed responsibility for three additional non-suicide attacks which targeted armoured vehicles with explosive devices. The group has also claimed attacks in the past on Israel, and has ties to militants in the Gaza Strip. In a two page statement, the group accused the Egyptian military of conducting a “dirty war, deputizing all anti-Islam forces in and outside Egypt, especially the Jews.”

Recent attacks have also included a thwarted attempt to detonate mortars on a railway between Suez and Ismailia, and the 19 August killing of 25 off-duty policemen who on their way home on leave from Sinai. The policemen were taken off of mini-buses and shot, with their hands tied behind their backs. The attacks have caused widespread outrage. Al-Nour party leader, Galal Murra, said in a press statement that all parties should work toward rescuing Sinai from a dark future. Members of the Dostor party vowed full support for military efforts to save Sinai from terrorism. Egypt’s top Sunni Islamic institution has called for an immediate move to provide security for the citizens and the state’s vital institutions, saying the government should “hit them with an iron hand to protect Sinai and Egyptian sovereignty.”

On 7 September, the Egyptian military began conducting offensive strikes in the Sinai. A spokesman for the military called it Egypt’s “largest military campaign against the terrorists in the Northern Sinai Peninsula” and vowed the operation would continue until the peninsula is “fully cleansed.” The offensive has unleashed helicopter gunships and tanks, as well as foot soldiers. The troops have targeted suspected militant hideouts and weapons caches, particularly in villages south of Rafah, and near Sheikh Zuweid. Authorities have also closed the Rafah border crossing to the Gaza Strip. War Colonel Ahmed Ali announced that since Saturday, the army has targeted 118 suspected terrorist bases, and destroyed three weapons caches and 33 vehicles with heavy guns placed on them. Officers have reported the capture of missile launchers and other weapons, as well as fuel storage sites. In the assault, dozens of militants have been killed and around 30 low- and mid-level operatives have been arrested.  One officer and two soldiers have been killed in the operation.

In previous, smaller sweeps, a significant number of foreign militants were detained, reinforcing the widely-held belief that since 2011, the Sinai has become a safe haven for militants from around the region to train and develop tactics for actions in the area. There are at least six known militant groups comprised of up to 5,000 members in Sinai. The vast desert and mountain region has rugged, harsh terrain, making it difficult to search. Many of the militants operating in Sinai are among those who escaped from Egyptian prisons during the 2011 uprisings, in which approximately 1,000 prisoners were set free.

The military assault has caused conflicting emotions among local residents. On the eve of the offensive, the Egyptian army deactivated all communication facilities in the region, including land line telephones, mobile phones and the internet. This loss of communication, coupled with accusations of military personnel targeting homes and arresting innocent people, has caused frustration. Officials targeted approximately 40 homes in the village of al-Mahdiya, seeking a wanted militant who is known to be in the area. While no one was killed in the search, villagers were “terrorised” by the destruction of property. Some fear that the military’s heavy-handed actions will result in open war with Bedouin tribes in the region; still others support the military efforts.

Ansar Jerusalem is attempting to use the unease to its advantage. In the 11 September statement, they declared that the military had killed civilians, set fire to homes, torched private cars, bombed mosques and stolen possessions, adding that Israeli drones were backing the offensive.

Meanwhile, in Nile Valley Egypt, Minister of Religious Endowments, Mohammad Mokhtar Gomaa has barred nearly 55,000 unlicensed clerics throughout Egypt from preaching in mosques. Gomaa explained that the clerics lack licenses to preach, and are considered a fundamentalist threat to Egypt’s security. The ban will target unlicensed mosques and random praying areas in hopes of delivering moderate messages and preventing radicalised ideologies from affecting the nation.

Finally, Egyptian Minister of Civil Aviation, Abdel Aziz Fadel, has released a press release reassuring that Cairo International Airport is safe following a tip of a possible bomb attack on the plane from Cairo to London on 7 September. An anonymous caller reported to state security that two passengers on the EgyptAir flight were suicide-bombers. The flight’s passengers were de-boarded and searched, and luggage was taken off the plane to be checked by sniffer dogs.

Fadel states that the Cairo airport, as well as those in Sharm el-Sheikh and Borg el-Arab, is equipped with sophisticated equipment to detect explosives, and identify the content of passengers’ luggage, and has a staff of efficient security forces from the Ministry of Interior. The equipment will soon be provided to Hurghada airport as well.

Mali Begins to Form New Government

Mali’s first post-war Prime Minster began to form a new government as both France and the United States pledged their support and gave an early vote of confidence to the new administration.  Oumar Tatm Ly, who was named as head of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita’s government last week, will be taking over the role from interim premier Diango Cissoko.  The newly appointed Prime MInister will be expected to deliver the promises put forth by the President, which include reuniting a deeply divided nation and cracking down on corruption.  Following the selection of the new Prime Minister, Mali’s new administration received a significant boost on Friday when the US State Department indicated that Washington would resume development aid to Mali, which had been suspended after the ex-president was ousted in a coup last year.  A statement released by the State Department indicated that the transition means “a democratically elected government has taken office in Mali,” adding that Washington would continue to assess the situation prior to renewing military assistance.  US support of the new administration came shortly after French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius welcomed Ly’s appointment.  In a statement released by his office, Mr. Fabius stated that “alongside President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, the competence of Oumar Tatam Ly will be a valuable asset in confronting the challenges facing Mali and the Sahel,” adding that “as Mali opens a new page, it can count on France, which will be its partner, ally and friend.”  The newly appointed Prime Minister has spent most of the last two decades as a central bank functionary and is therefore expected to rely on advisers who have greater political experience.  He will also be responsible for selecting colleagues for a cabinet that has been charged with returning stability to a country that was upended by a military coup and Islamist insurgency last year.  While Mr. Ly began consultations with potential ministers immediately after being appointed to the post on Thursday, officials have not indicated who was in consideration for the major portfolios.  Born in Paris, France, Mr. Ly quickly became a promising academic, gaining degrees in history and economics from a number of prestigious French universities, including the Sorbonne, and ESSEC, which is one of Europe’s top business schools.  He began his career at the World Bank before moving via the general secretariat of the president of Mali to the Central Bank of West African States in 1994.  He rose to become national director for Mali and then adviser to the governor.  While he has never held high public office, Mr. Ly comes from a family that has been deeply involved in West African politics and is considered to be a close confidante of the current president.

Clashes continue and hostages taken in the Philippines

Following armed clashes with the military yesterday, a serious security incident is on-going, as it appears members of a rebel faction of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) have taken an unconfirmed number of individuals hostage in the town of Zamboanga, on the southern island of Mindanao in the Philippines. Mindanao has been subject to insurgency and unrest for the past several decades and despite some broadly successful peace efforts in the past remains extremely unstable. MNLF founder Nur Misuari recently declared a commitment to an independent state in the region in an attempt to derail the on-going peace process with other separatist factions.

Zamboanga, the commercial and industrial centre of the Zamboanga Peninsula, is a predominantly Christian area and not part of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), the autonomous province created following a 1996 peace deal with the MNLF. The incident began yesterday, when MNLF members arrived by boat on the coastal city, reportedly wanting to raise their flag of independence above the city hall. Clashes began with security forces that saw at least 6 people killed, 4 of whom were civilians. A robust response from the police and military has seen the MNLF fighters surrounded in the Rio Honda district, a busy area close to the city centre, as well as in other locations on the coast.

Reports indicate The MNLF fighters have taken over 30 civilians hostage as a stand-off with the military has developed, with up to 180 caught in the stand-off in some form. It appears MNLF fighters may have moved into their communities to use them as human shields, though Interior Secretary Mar Roxas said many were not actually bound or being intentionally held captive, instead being trapped by the incident. Negotiations overnight saw 5 hostages released. The exact numbers of individuals concerned, and their exact status as hostages or not, currently remains unconfirmed.

Security forces appear to have the situation largely under control, with large numbers of elite troops rushed to the city and a naval blockade put in place to prevent MNLF reinforcements from arriving. A curfew is in place and thousands of residents have been displaced, with commercial flights in and out of the city cancelled. The incident remains on-going, though the government is reportedly prepared to negotiate. A broadly peaceful resolution seems likely, with the rebels allowed to leave the city if the civilians are unharmed. Nevertheless, the situation retains the potential to deteriorate extremely rapidly. While security forces throughout the rest of Mindanao are on alert, no other incidents have occurred thus far.

Mindanao has been scarred by extreme unrest and various insurgencies over the past decades. Muslim separatists the MNLF concluded a peace deal with the government in 1996 that led to the establishment of the ARMM, though the MNLF rapidly splintered following this. The largest splinter faction, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, has recently begun to conclude its own peace deal with the government, a process that has led factions of the MNLF to renew their campaigning for full independence due to fears of being side-lined. There are currently numerous armed groups operating in Mindanao, ranging from kidnapping gangs to the local Al Qaeda affiliate, Abu Sayyaf. There is also an on-going communist insurgency in addition to Islamic separatism. Bombings and kidnappings are a favoured tactic and extremely common, though Zamboanga has remained relatively peaceful in recent years. Human shields have been used by rebels in the region in past incidents.

The security situation in the southern Philippines remains very complex and fractious. This poses a serious danger for visitors, and an extremely high degree of security awareness should be maintained at all times. In addition to terrorism, violent crime and kidnap for ransom remains a very high risk. Public transport links and places frequented by foreigners throughout the island are particularly vulnerable. All but essential travel to the entirety of Mindanao, and all travel to the ARMM, should be avoided.

Russia’s Proposition to Syrian Regime Seen as a Stalling Tactic

Days after the conclusion of the G20 Summit in Saint Petersburg, where global leaders remained divided on the Syrian crisis, Russia has urged Syria to put its chemical weapons stockpiles under international control in an attempt to avoid US military strikes.  Meanwhile the United States has warned that this recent diplomatic initiative made by Russia may be a form of stalling US air strikes.  The announcement of a proposed destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons comes one day after two foreign hostages were freed after being held captive for five months in Syria.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has announced that an offer to destroy chemical weapons stockpiles was made during talks with his Syrian counterpart, Walid Muallem, who welcomed the initiative.  During talks that were held in Moscow, Mr. Lavrov stated that he had urged Mr. Muallem to “not only agree on placing chemical weapons storage sites under international control, but also on their subsequent destruction.” He also indicated that once this plan is approved and completed, Syria should fully join the Chemical Weapons Conventions.  In response to the proposal, Mr. Muallem indicated that Syria has welcomed Russia’s initiative and has praised its officials for “attempting to prevent American aggression against our people.”

Shortly after Russia’s announcement, United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon also called for the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons in internationally supervised safe zones.  During a brief meeting with journalists on Monday, Mr. Ban told reporters that he may propose the zones to the UN Security Council if UN inspectors confirm that such banned weapons were in fact used.  He further noted that such a decision may also aid the Security Council’s “embarrassing paralysis” over the Syrian crisis.  While the UN’s leader has welcomed Russia’s proposal, and has urged Syria to “agree to these proposals,” adding that there would be “very swift action” by the international community to ensure that the stocks are destroyed, he warned that “first and foremost Syria must agree positively to this.”  In turn, Mr. Ban stipulated that if UN inspectors confirm the use of sarin gas in an August 21 attack, the Security Council would have no choice but to act.

Currently a UN team, which is led by Swedish expert Ake Sellstrom, is working on a report on whether chemical arms, which are banned under international law, were used in the August 21 attack that occurred near Damascus.  If the use is confirmed by the team, then according to Mr. Ban, “this would be an abominable crime, and the international community would certainly have to do something about it.”  Officials in Britain, France and the United States have already stated that Assad’s forces carried out the attack in which more than 1,400 people died.

Meanwhile the United States on Monday indicated that while it would take a “hard look” at Russia’s plan for Syria to hand over its chemical weapons, US officials expressed skepticism over the credibility of the initiative.  Deputy State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf stated that “we’ll look at this new development, we’ll take a hard look at it,” cautioning that “clearly we don’t want this as I said, to be another stalling tactic.  The Russians for months and years have stood up for the Syrian regime at the UN and in the international community.”  In turn, Ben Rhodes, a US deputy national security advisor, indicated that despite Russia’s proposal, Washington would not ease pressure on President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.  During an interview, he stipulated that the US “will just have to follow up with them and with other countries going forward to assess the seriousness of this proposal,” adding that “at the same time, it is going to be very important that we don’t take the pressure off.”

UK Prime Minister David Cameron has also stated that a destruction of the weapons would be a “huge step forward,” however he warned that such a proposition should not be used as a “distraction tactic.”

Assad’s Warning to US

Meanwhile Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad recently gave an interview to US network PBS in which he warned the US against any military intervention, cautioning that the Middle East was “on the bring of explosion,” and that the US would “…pay the price if you’re not wise with dealing with terrorists.  There are going to be repercussions.”  During the interview, Mr. Assad also stated that the US “should expect everything.  The government is not the only player in this region.  You have different parties, different factions, different ideologies.  You have everything in this decision now.”  The Syrian leader however did not specify whether or not his comments were a threat that Syrian backed groups, such as Hezbollah, would launch retaliation attacks, or whether the comments were a warning that such strikes would bolster al-Qaeda-linked groups.  He also denied that he was responsible for the chemical weapons attack, adding that there was “no evidence” to hold his government responsible for the 21 August attack.

Hostages Freed From Syria

On Monday, freed Italian journalist Domenico Quirico and Belgian teacher Pierre Piccinin spoke about the “very tough” conditions they lived through while being held hostage for five months in Syria.  The two men, who were released on Sunday, stated that during the five-month kidnap ordeal, they had been subjected to violence, humiliation and mock executions.  While both men indicated that they had overheard their captors discussing a possible rebel involvement in a poison-gas attack near Damascus, Mr. Quirico stated that they had no way of verifying the information.  Although minimal details have emerged in regards to the circumstances of the ordeal, reports indicate that Italy’s secret services had stepped up its efforts in order to secure their freedom ahead of the possible US military strikes.

A gaunt and tired Quirico and a heavily bearded Piccinin were first seen late on Sunday after stepping off an Italian government plane in Rome.  They later stated that “we are okay despite the torture suffered,” adding that “there was sometimes real violence…humiliation, bullying mock executions, Domenico faced two mock executions, with a revolver.”

According to a statement made by Mr. Quirico, he and Mr. Piccinin were initially picked up in April by the Western-backed Free Syrian Army who then handed them over to the Abu Ammar brigade.  The veteran reporter further noted that “the first days we were blindfolded.  There were maybe three groups that handled us…the conditions in which we were held were very tough from the start.  We were given food at best once a day.”  Although the two men tried to escape twice, once while their captors were at prayer, the were tracked down after two days and “seriously punished.”

Mr. Quirico has also been quoted as casting doubts on claims made by Mr. Piccinin relating to an alleged conversation they overheard about the alleged rebel role in the use of chemical weapons.  Mr. Quirico has stated that “from a room where we were being held and through a half-open door one day we overheard a conversation in English via Skype involving three people whose identities I do not know,” further stating that “in the conversation, they were saying that the gas operations in two suburbs of Damascus was carried out by rebels as a provocation to force the West to intervene military.”  He has since indicated that he is not able to say whether or not this conversation was based on real facts or on hearsay.  In turn, a source close to the Belgian government has indicated that Mr. Piccinin’s comments “engage only him personally.”

Concerns on the part of Italian authorities had mounted as the possibility of US-led air strikes on Syria increased.  However in the wake of the release of these two men, media rights watchdog Reporters Sans Frontieres (RSF) has stated that thirteen journalists are still missing in Syria.  Amongst the kidnapped are two French journalists, Didier Francois and Edouard Elias, and US journalist James Foley.  Italy is also still attempting to free another one of its nationals who has been missing in Syria since July.  Father Paolo Dall’Oglio, a Jesuit priest who has lived in Syria for a number of years.

Bangladeshi Piracy Raises Concerns

In South East Asia, the vast majority of piracy incidents, and commensurately the level of law enforcement response and international attention, currently occur around the Straits of Malacca, in the numerous islands of the Indonesian archipelago and the South China Sea. However, Bangladesh has seen a continuing, and significant, level of piracy as well, though the most serious incidents are primarily targeted against local fishermen and similar. This has included two extremely serious incidents within the past month. Of particular concern is the pirate’s methodology – kidnap for ransom and a high degree of violence is extremely common.

Incidents against foreign vessels in Bangladesh take much the same form as in the rest of South East Asia. This involves opportunistic armed robbery against ships, almost always berthed in the Chittagong anchorage. Robbers, sometimes armed, board ships and attempt to steal stores, cargo and valuables. They commonly flee when confronted by crewmembers. The overall rate of piracy against foreign vessels however remains relatively low, with a small number of incidents each month, particularly when compared with Indonesia, by far the most afflicted country in the region. Rates have remained relatively stable and even seen a slight decrease in the past few years. A high degree of security awareness on behalf of law enforcement and shipping is widely credited with helping keep the situation under control.

It is attacks against local fishermen and trawlers in the Bay of Bengal that are a potentially a much more concerning phenomenon. There are numerous active pirate gangs that operate in Bangladeshi waters, particularly around the Sundarbans mangrove forest which was home to at least ten separate pirate gangs late last year. Other regions throughout the country, including along rivers far from the coast, are also plagued by pirate activity.

As opposed to the opportunistic ‘smash-and-grab’ robberies that target foreign vessels in port, piracy targeting local fishermen tends to involve kidnap for ransom as standard. The most common period for attacks is between April and August, the fishing season. The scale of this activity is also dramatic. In addition to regular demands for protection money, often from numerous different gangs, attacks are commonplace. According to the local District Fishing Trawlers Owners Association (DFTOA), between January 2011 and November 2012 over 1000 fishing trawlers were attacked, with thousands of fishermen taken hostage for various periods. This reportedly led to ransom payments totally $1.28 million. In August 2012, over 60 fishermen were taken hostage in a single incident, while the first 3 months of this year reportedly saw 90 attacks in one coastal region alone. Last month, (August, 2013) in two separate incidents over 30 fishermen were taken hostage. Attacks of this scale are standard, and occur monthly.

The law enforcement response to these activities is of varying effectiveness. Last year, a large co-ordinated operation between the Coast Guard and Navy led to the release of nearly 40 hostages, while police operations in the past weeks in response to recent incidents saw several pirates killed in shootouts and secured the release of two-thirds of the hostages. However, the long term effectiveness of this law enforcement activity remains doubtful – many locals report that the pirates simply remain dormant and re-emerge after the operations. Alternatively, they flee across the border into India, where a lack of regional co-operation makes it difficult to apprehend them. The Bangladeshi navy and coast guard are weak – the coast guard has only 11 boats, most nearly 3 decades old and several unusable during the monsoon season. The effect on the economy can be huge – with coastal fishing contributing 30% of the nation’s total catch, during 2012-2013 this had dropped from 108’000 metric tons to 39’000.

Particularly concerning is the high level of violence that occurs in these incidents. Pirates are usually armed, and beatings of captive fishermen are a common occurrence. Murder of hostages is also frequent, with many killed every year either during or after attacks. In a single incident in April of this year, 31 fishermen were tied up and tossed overboard to drown after being robbed by pirates.

While currently this activity does not commonly target international vessels, the trend is particularly concerning. With growing rates of low-level, violent hostage taking and piracy throughout the Bay of Bengal, combined with a lower level of international attention and a weaker law enforcement presence than in other regions of South East Asia, the phenomenon has the potential to evolve into one of substantially greater threat. Some analysts believe Bangladeshi pirates will become a threat to global shipping within the next two years. While currently the threat to international vessels does still remain relatively low, a high level of security awareness should be maintained by all vessels in the Bay of Bengal.