MS Risk Blog

Clashes continue and hostages taken in the Philippines

Following armed clashes with the military yesterday, a serious security incident is on-going, as it appears members of a rebel faction of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) have taken an unconfirmed number of individuals hostage in the town of Zamboanga, on the southern island of Mindanao in the Philippines. Mindanao has been subject to insurgency and unrest for the past several decades and despite some broadly successful peace efforts in the past remains extremely unstable. MNLF founder Nur Misuari recently declared a commitment to an independent state in the region in an attempt to derail the on-going peace process with other separatist factions.

Zamboanga, the commercial and industrial centre of the Zamboanga Peninsula, is a predominantly Christian area and not part of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), the autonomous province created following a 1996 peace deal with the MNLF. The incident began yesterday, when MNLF members arrived by boat on the coastal city, reportedly wanting to raise their flag of independence above the city hall. Clashes began with security forces that saw at least 6 people killed, 4 of whom were civilians. A robust response from the police and military has seen the MNLF fighters surrounded in the Rio Honda district, a busy area close to the city centre, as well as in other locations on the coast.

Reports indicate The MNLF fighters have taken over 30 civilians hostage as a stand-off with the military has developed, with up to 180 caught in the stand-off in some form. It appears MNLF fighters may have moved into their communities to use them as human shields, though Interior Secretary Mar Roxas said many were not actually bound or being intentionally held captive, instead being trapped by the incident. Negotiations overnight saw 5 hostages released. The exact numbers of individuals concerned, and their exact status as hostages or not, currently remains unconfirmed.

Security forces appear to have the situation largely under control, with large numbers of elite troops rushed to the city and a naval blockade put in place to prevent MNLF reinforcements from arriving. A curfew is in place and thousands of residents have been displaced, with commercial flights in and out of the city cancelled. The incident remains on-going, though the government is reportedly prepared to negotiate. A broadly peaceful resolution seems likely, with the rebels allowed to leave the city if the civilians are unharmed. Nevertheless, the situation retains the potential to deteriorate extremely rapidly. While security forces throughout the rest of Mindanao are on alert, no other incidents have occurred thus far.

Mindanao has been scarred by extreme unrest and various insurgencies over the past decades. Muslim separatists the MNLF concluded a peace deal with the government in 1996 that led to the establishment of the ARMM, though the MNLF rapidly splintered following this. The largest splinter faction, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, has recently begun to conclude its own peace deal with the government, a process that has led factions of the MNLF to renew their campaigning for full independence due to fears of being side-lined. There are currently numerous armed groups operating in Mindanao, ranging from kidnapping gangs to the local Al Qaeda affiliate, Abu Sayyaf. There is also an on-going communist insurgency in addition to Islamic separatism. Bombings and kidnappings are a favoured tactic and extremely common, though Zamboanga has remained relatively peaceful in recent years. Human shields have been used by rebels in the region in past incidents.

The security situation in the southern Philippines remains very complex and fractious. This poses a serious danger for visitors, and an extremely high degree of security awareness should be maintained at all times. In addition to terrorism, violent crime and kidnap for ransom remains a very high risk. Public transport links and places frequented by foreigners throughout the island are particularly vulnerable. All but essential travel to the entirety of Mindanao, and all travel to the ARMM, should be avoided.

Russia’s Proposition to Syrian Regime Seen as a Stalling Tactic

Days after the conclusion of the G20 Summit in Saint Petersburg, where global leaders remained divided on the Syrian crisis, Russia has urged Syria to put its chemical weapons stockpiles under international control in an attempt to avoid US military strikes.  Meanwhile the United States has warned that this recent diplomatic initiative made by Russia may be a form of stalling US air strikes.  The announcement of a proposed destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons comes one day after two foreign hostages were freed after being held captive for five months in Syria.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has announced that an offer to destroy chemical weapons stockpiles was made during talks with his Syrian counterpart, Walid Muallem, who welcomed the initiative.  During talks that were held in Moscow, Mr. Lavrov stated that he had urged Mr. Muallem to “not only agree on placing chemical weapons storage sites under international control, but also on their subsequent destruction.” He also indicated that once this plan is approved and completed, Syria should fully join the Chemical Weapons Conventions.  In response to the proposal, Mr. Muallem indicated that Syria has welcomed Russia’s initiative and has praised its officials for “attempting to prevent American aggression against our people.”

Shortly after Russia’s announcement, United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon also called for the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons in internationally supervised safe zones.  During a brief meeting with journalists on Monday, Mr. Ban told reporters that he may propose the zones to the UN Security Council if UN inspectors confirm that such banned weapons were in fact used.  He further noted that such a decision may also aid the Security Council’s “embarrassing paralysis” over the Syrian crisis.  While the UN’s leader has welcomed Russia’s proposal, and has urged Syria to “agree to these proposals,” adding that there would be “very swift action” by the international community to ensure that the stocks are destroyed, he warned that “first and foremost Syria must agree positively to this.”  In turn, Mr. Ban stipulated that if UN inspectors confirm the use of sarin gas in an August 21 attack, the Security Council would have no choice but to act.

Currently a UN team, which is led by Swedish expert Ake Sellstrom, is working on a report on whether chemical arms, which are banned under international law, were used in the August 21 attack that occurred near Damascus.  If the use is confirmed by the team, then according to Mr. Ban, “this would be an abominable crime, and the international community would certainly have to do something about it.”  Officials in Britain, France and the United States have already stated that Assad’s forces carried out the attack in which more than 1,400 people died.

Meanwhile the United States on Monday indicated that while it would take a “hard look” at Russia’s plan for Syria to hand over its chemical weapons, US officials expressed skepticism over the credibility of the initiative.  Deputy State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf stated that “we’ll look at this new development, we’ll take a hard look at it,” cautioning that “clearly we don’t want this as I said, to be another stalling tactic.  The Russians for months and years have stood up for the Syrian regime at the UN and in the international community.”  In turn, Ben Rhodes, a US deputy national security advisor, indicated that despite Russia’s proposal, Washington would not ease pressure on President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.  During an interview, he stipulated that the US “will just have to follow up with them and with other countries going forward to assess the seriousness of this proposal,” adding that “at the same time, it is going to be very important that we don’t take the pressure off.”

UK Prime Minister David Cameron has also stated that a destruction of the weapons would be a “huge step forward,” however he warned that such a proposition should not be used as a “distraction tactic.”

Assad’s Warning to US

Meanwhile Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad recently gave an interview to US network PBS in which he warned the US against any military intervention, cautioning that the Middle East was “on the bring of explosion,” and that the US would “…pay the price if you’re not wise with dealing with terrorists.  There are going to be repercussions.”  During the interview, Mr. Assad also stated that the US “should expect everything.  The government is not the only player in this region.  You have different parties, different factions, different ideologies.  You have everything in this decision now.”  The Syrian leader however did not specify whether or not his comments were a threat that Syrian backed groups, such as Hezbollah, would launch retaliation attacks, or whether the comments were a warning that such strikes would bolster al-Qaeda-linked groups.  He also denied that he was responsible for the chemical weapons attack, adding that there was “no evidence” to hold his government responsible for the 21 August attack.

Hostages Freed From Syria

On Monday, freed Italian journalist Domenico Quirico and Belgian teacher Pierre Piccinin spoke about the “very tough” conditions they lived through while being held hostage for five months in Syria.  The two men, who were released on Sunday, stated that during the five-month kidnap ordeal, they had been subjected to violence, humiliation and mock executions.  While both men indicated that they had overheard their captors discussing a possible rebel involvement in a poison-gas attack near Damascus, Mr. Quirico stated that they had no way of verifying the information.  Although minimal details have emerged in regards to the circumstances of the ordeal, reports indicate that Italy’s secret services had stepped up its efforts in order to secure their freedom ahead of the possible US military strikes.

A gaunt and tired Quirico and a heavily bearded Piccinin were first seen late on Sunday after stepping off an Italian government plane in Rome.  They later stated that “we are okay despite the torture suffered,” adding that “there was sometimes real violence…humiliation, bullying mock executions, Domenico faced two mock executions, with a revolver.”

According to a statement made by Mr. Quirico, he and Mr. Piccinin were initially picked up in April by the Western-backed Free Syrian Army who then handed them over to the Abu Ammar brigade.  The veteran reporter further noted that “the first days we were blindfolded.  There were maybe three groups that handled us…the conditions in which we were held were very tough from the start.  We were given food at best once a day.”  Although the two men tried to escape twice, once while their captors were at prayer, the were tracked down after two days and “seriously punished.”

Mr. Quirico has also been quoted as casting doubts on claims made by Mr. Piccinin relating to an alleged conversation they overheard about the alleged rebel role in the use of chemical weapons.  Mr. Quirico has stated that “from a room where we were being held and through a half-open door one day we overheard a conversation in English via Skype involving three people whose identities I do not know,” further stating that “in the conversation, they were saying that the gas operations in two suburbs of Damascus was carried out by rebels as a provocation to force the West to intervene military.”  He has since indicated that he is not able to say whether or not this conversation was based on real facts or on hearsay.  In turn, a source close to the Belgian government has indicated that Mr. Piccinin’s comments “engage only him personally.”

Concerns on the part of Italian authorities had mounted as the possibility of US-led air strikes on Syria increased.  However in the wake of the release of these two men, media rights watchdog Reporters Sans Frontieres (RSF) has stated that thirteen journalists are still missing in Syria.  Amongst the kidnapped are two French journalists, Didier Francois and Edouard Elias, and US journalist James Foley.  Italy is also still attempting to free another one of its nationals who has been missing in Syria since July.  Father Paolo Dall’Oglio, a Jesuit priest who has lived in Syria for a number of years.

Bangladeshi Piracy Raises Concerns

In South East Asia, the vast majority of piracy incidents, and commensurately the level of law enforcement response and international attention, currently occur around the Straits of Malacca, in the numerous islands of the Indonesian archipelago and the South China Sea. However, Bangladesh has seen a continuing, and significant, level of piracy as well, though the most serious incidents are primarily targeted against local fishermen and similar. This has included two extremely serious incidents within the past month. Of particular concern is the pirate’s methodology – kidnap for ransom and a high degree of violence is extremely common.

Incidents against foreign vessels in Bangladesh take much the same form as in the rest of South East Asia. This involves opportunistic armed robbery against ships, almost always berthed in the Chittagong anchorage. Robbers, sometimes armed, board ships and attempt to steal stores, cargo and valuables. They commonly flee when confronted by crewmembers. The overall rate of piracy against foreign vessels however remains relatively low, with a small number of incidents each month, particularly when compared with Indonesia, by far the most afflicted country in the region. Rates have remained relatively stable and even seen a slight decrease in the past few years. A high degree of security awareness on behalf of law enforcement and shipping is widely credited with helping keep the situation under control.

It is attacks against local fishermen and trawlers in the Bay of Bengal that are a potentially a much more concerning phenomenon. There are numerous active pirate gangs that operate in Bangladeshi waters, particularly around the Sundarbans mangrove forest which was home to at least ten separate pirate gangs late last year. Other regions throughout the country, including along rivers far from the coast, are also plagued by pirate activity.

As opposed to the opportunistic ‘smash-and-grab’ robberies that target foreign vessels in port, piracy targeting local fishermen tends to involve kidnap for ransom as standard. The most common period for attacks is between April and August, the fishing season. The scale of this activity is also dramatic. In addition to regular demands for protection money, often from numerous different gangs, attacks are commonplace. According to the local District Fishing Trawlers Owners Association (DFTOA), between January 2011 and November 2012 over 1000 fishing trawlers were attacked, with thousands of fishermen taken hostage for various periods. This reportedly led to ransom payments totally $1.28 million. In August 2012, over 60 fishermen were taken hostage in a single incident, while the first 3 months of this year reportedly saw 90 attacks in one coastal region alone. Last month, (August, 2013) in two separate incidents over 30 fishermen were taken hostage. Attacks of this scale are standard, and occur monthly.

The law enforcement response to these activities is of varying effectiveness. Last year, a large co-ordinated operation between the Coast Guard and Navy led to the release of nearly 40 hostages, while police operations in the past weeks in response to recent incidents saw several pirates killed in shootouts and secured the release of two-thirds of the hostages. However, the long term effectiveness of this law enforcement activity remains doubtful – many locals report that the pirates simply remain dormant and re-emerge after the operations. Alternatively, they flee across the border into India, where a lack of regional co-operation makes it difficult to apprehend them. The Bangladeshi navy and coast guard are weak – the coast guard has only 11 boats, most nearly 3 decades old and several unusable during the monsoon season. The effect on the economy can be huge – with coastal fishing contributing 30% of the nation’s total catch, during 2012-2013 this had dropped from 108’000 metric tons to 39’000.

Particularly concerning is the high level of violence that occurs in these incidents. Pirates are usually armed, and beatings of captive fishermen are a common occurrence. Murder of hostages is also frequent, with many killed every year either during or after attacks. In a single incident in April of this year, 31 fishermen were tied up and tossed overboard to drown after being robbed by pirates.

While currently this activity does not commonly target international vessels, the trend is particularly concerning. With growing rates of low-level, violent hostage taking and piracy throughout the Bay of Bengal, combined with a lower level of international attention and a weaker law enforcement presence than in other regions of South East Asia, the phenomenon has the potential to evolve into one of substantially greater threat. Some analysts believe Bangladeshi pirates will become a threat to global shipping within the next two years. While currently the threat to international vessels does still remain relatively low, a high level of security awareness should be maintained by all vessels in the Bay of Bengal.

Syrian Crisis Dominates the G20 Summit in Russia, Where World Leaders Remained Divided

World leaders meeting at the G20 Summit in Russia remained divided over military action in Syria.  The Syrian crisis, and prospect of military action, has overshadowed the official agenda of the summit, which was intended to focus on the world’s top economies and emerging markets in order to stimulate growth and battle tax avoidance.  While talks on Syria dominated the first day of the summit, it was not immediately clear if the leaders would have another chance to discuss the issue on the summit’s second day or if the main session would focus on purely economic issues.  What does remain clear is that tensions between the United States and Russia have reached a new low.

Despite not being on the original agenda of the summit, which is hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg, global leaders discussed the Syria crisis over a working dinner on Thursday, which lasted into the early morning hours.  However there was no breakthrough during the dinner as leaders, including US President Barack Obama, presented their positions on the Syria crisis.  The discussions, which failed to bridge the divisions over US plans which are seeking military action against the Syrian regime, also confirmed the extent of global divisions on the issue.  A Kremlin spokesman was quoted as saying that “some states were defending the view the rushed measures should be taken, overlooking legitimate international institutions.  Other states appealed not to devalue international law and not to forget that only the UN Security Council has the right to decide on using force.”  While a high-ranking source close to the talks indicated that there was a disappointing lack of ambition at the dinner on the Syria issue, noting that Putin as host was keen not to aggravate tensions further, a French diplomatic source highlighted that while discussions indicated a sharp divide amongst the leaders, the overall objective of the dinner “was an exchange between the top world leaders and not to come to an agreement.”  Outside of the summit, several Western states share Mr. Putin’s opposition to military action, and after last week’s vote in the British parliament, which resulted in the UK government voting against strikes, France is the only power to have vowed that it will join American intervention if US officials go ahead with military action.

Mr. Putin has emerged as one of the most inflexible critics of military action against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which has been accused of allegedly using chemical weapons in an attack that was carried out on 21 August.  Putin’s comments that any move without the UN’s blessing would be an aggression, remained unchanged throughout the Summit.  China also insists that any action without the UN would be illegal.

Meanwhile on Friday, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon warned that military strikes could spark further sectarian violence in the country which he said is suffering from a humanitarian crisis “unprecedented” in recent history, adding that “I must warn that ill-considered military action could cause serious and tragic consequences, and with an increased threat of further sectarian violence.”  The UN is also appealing for more aid for the estimated two million Syrians who have fled their country, in which another 4.25 million are internally displaced.  UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced on Friday that the UK would provide an additional £52 million (US $80 million) in aid for Syrian, in which much of it will go towards medical training and equipment in order to help those civilians who have been targeted by chemical attacks.

Update on the Suez Canal, Egypt

In continuing efforts to maintain the protection of the Suez Canal Zone, Egyptian authorities issued unprecedented increases to security. Egyptian armed forces have erected checkpoint every 20 kilometres, and have deployed army helicopters to monitor the Canal Zone. In addition, there are increased mobile security patrols, and the military has installed more security cameras in and around the waterway. The government has also been working with local tribes in the Sinai Peninsula to ensure cooperation in the region’s security.

Analysts surmise that hitting and sinking a vessel in the Canal Zone would be extremely difficult; such an endeavour would require a suicide boat attack, floating mines, or missiles. While the former two options would be almost inconceivable to get through Suez security, the option that remains is to build a small battery in a deserted area, capable of delivering a missile to attack a ship. However, the development of such a system would likely be detected by electronic or satellite surveillance, or one of the many military battalions stationed in the Suez region.

Experts have ensured that Egyptian authorities were fully capable of securing the Suez Canal and preventing potential terrorist attacks, however there is the possibility of “minor” limited attacks in the near future. Military expert Ahmed Ragae said, “I expect to see limited and ineffective attacks that aim only to raise doubts about the canal among western countries.”

Western countries are already keeping a close eye on the turmoil in Egypt. Earlier today in Nile Valley Egypt, a car bomb targeted the convoy of Egypt’s Interior Minister Mohammed Ibrahim in a suspected assassination attempt. The bomb did not harm Ibrahim; however, as many as 10 people have been injured in the blast. The bombing occurred in Nasr City near the home of the Minister, and in a stronghold region of the Muslim Brotherhood. No party has claimed responsibility for the attack. Egyptian police have reportedly killed two of the attackers.

Ibrahim is the head of the country’s police force, which worked with other security forces to clear out two Muslim Brotherhood protest camps last month, resulting in a deadly crackdown that left hundreds dead and thousands injured. The protesters are seeking the return of deposed president Mohamed Morsi, who was removed from office on 3 July.