Air Strikes in Somalia; Dozens Die in Niger

According to residents, an air strike in southern Somalia has killed two senior al-Shabaab commanders.  Meanwhile in Niger, a number of travellers are feared to have died of thirst while attempting to cross the Sahara on their way to Europe.

According to local residents, an air strike destroyed the vehicle of al-Shabaab militants who were travelling in between the towns of Jilib and Barawe, which is seen as a major base of al-Shabaab.  A Kenyan military source has indicated that their troops raided Jilib however it is unlikely that they carried out the airstrike.  Reports have indicated that the strike was probably a drone attack.  Jilib is located some 120 kilometers (75 miles) north of the port city of Kismayo.  The air strike comes weeks after the US launched a failed raid in Barawe earlier this month.  The US was believed o have sought to capture al-Shabaab commander Abdukadir Mohamed Abdukadir, also known as Ikrima, whoever US commands were forced to retreat after meeting heavy resistance.  Ikrima is an al-Shabaab leader who is responsible for logistics.  According to residents of Barawe, he is known to be usually accompanied by about twenty well-armed guards.

The US has previously carried out a number of air strikes in Somalia.  In 2008, a US strike killed al-Shabaab commander Aden Hashi Ayro.  One year later, another strike killed Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan.  He was accused of being involved in the 1998 bombing of the US embassy in Nairobi along with the 2002 attacks on a hotel and airline in Mombasa.

Meanwhile in Niger, officials have stated that dozens of people traversing the Sahara desert, on their way to Europe, are feared to have died of thirst.  According to the governor of Agadez, five bodies have been found while a further thirty-five are missing after a vehicle carrying the passengers broke down, forcing them to set off in order to seek help.  The bodies found are of two women and three girls aged 9 – 11.  The rest of the travellers consisted of “entire families, including very many children and women.”

Reports have indicated that after one vehicle broke down, passengers went to look for spare parts in order to bring them back for repairs.  It is believed that the migrants broke up into small groups.  Days later, the survivors, who reached Arlit, a town known for its uranium mining, alerted the army however the troops arrived too late at the scene.  The authorities have called off the search for the missing.    According to the mayor of Agadex, Rhissa Feltou, two vehicles had left the town of Arlit, which is located north of Agadez, earlier this month.  They were carrying “at least” sixty migrants.    The city of Agadez lies on one of the main migrant routes from West Africa to Europe.

Over the past month, hundreds of migrants have died after their boats sans as they attempted to cross the Mediterranean Sea.

Officials In Kenya Want Somali Refugees Back in Their Own Country

On Friday, officials in Kenya indicating that Somali refugee camps were being used as a safe haven for Islamist militants, adding that the time had come for hundreds of thousands of refugees to go home.  According to the country’s Interior Minister, Joseph Ole Lenku, “for many years, Kenya has been host to the largest refugee community in the world, we are host to almost 600,000 refugees.  We have welcomed, with open arms, refugees fleeing from insecurity in neighboring countries,” adding that “some of these refugees have abused our hospitality and kindness to plan and launch terror attacks from the safety of the refugee camps.  This cannot and should not be allowed to continue.”  In the wake of last months attack on the Westgate shopping centre, a number of Kenyan officials have pointed the finger at Dadaab, a Somali refugee camp located in the northeastern region of the country which is home to over 4000,000 people who have fled instability in neighboring Somalia.  According to these officials, the refugee camp has turned into a “training ground” for Somali extremists.  While the Interior Minister did not indicate that the camp should be immediately lose, he did state that Somalia was “now experiencing relative peace” and that Kenya was now “working closely  with the government of Somalia and UNCHR to ensure that the repatriation process is as smooth and humane as possible.”  Meanwhile the Interior Minister has also confirmed that fifteen immigration officers had been fired in connection with an ongoing tightening of national security after last month’s attack in Nairobi.  According to the minister, fifteen officers were fired for issuing “Kenyan identity documents to illegal immigrants thereby endangering national security.”  The minister also vowed a complete audit of all identity cards and passports issues in the last years in order to “flush out those who have been issued with illegal passports and other identification documents.”

 Meanwhile on Thursday, authorities in Kenya pledged to boost security for the Nairobi marathon, which is due to take place this Sunday.  According to Nairobi deputy police chief Moses Ombati, “we have taken this function very seriously, putting into consideration all the threats we have in the country right now,” adding that “we don’t want a repeat of what happened at Westgate, which took all of us by surprise.”  According to the police chief, “we have enhanced security right along the 42 kilometer (26 mile) route, both from the air and on the ground, with restrictions at all the key points.  There will also be screening of all the participants.”  Over 20,000 local and international athletes are expected to take part in the annual marathon race through the streets of the capital.  With security forces on high alert, Nairobi is still reeling from the four-day siege on the upmarket Westgate shopping mall.

MENA Update

Algeria

UNHRC: Polisario camps becoming a recruiting ground for terrorists and traffickers

A report released by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has found that refugee camps run by the separatist Polisario Front near Tindouf, Algeria, may have become a recruiting ground for terrorists and traffickers in North Africa.

Reports spanning back to 2009 show Polisario involvement in drugs and arms trafficking throughout the Sahel and Sahara; armed incursions in Mali; mercenary work under Gadhafi in Libya; and kidnappings and collaboration with  AQIM. According to reports, the Polisario camps in Algeria have become a recruiting ground for AQIM, a hub for Polisario traffickers, and a threat to the region. Analysts are concerned about an “arc of instability” stretching across Africa, linking militants from AQIM, Boko Haram in Nigeria, al-Shabaab in Somalia, and the Polisario. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon recently warned, “inaction could be catastrophic.”

Since 1990, international support for the camps has exceeded $1 billion. The UNHRC report recommends that support for the camps be used for durable solutions to resettle refugees, remove security threats, and improve humanitarian conditions.

Bahrain

Leaked report reveals Bahraini bid to replenish tear gas

A leaked report has revealed that in June, Bahrain’s interior ministry tendered bids for the provision of 1.6 million tear gas projectiles, 90,000 tear gas grenades and 145,000 stun grenades. The bid would replace nearly all of Bahrain’s projectiles used since 2011. The document does not reveal how much money Bahrain is prepared to spend on replenishing its supplies.

Bahraini forces have used tear gas extensively since 2011, as the minority Sunni government struggles faces daily low-level confrontations from a predominantly Shia population. Tear gas is among the most commonly-used methods to disperse protesters. In 2012, the US barred exports of tear gas to Bahrain, citing human rights concerns. Activists claim South Korean companies may be preparing to meet Bahrain’s tear gas requirements. The rise in global activism has spurred sales for non-lethal weapons as governments shift spending from counter terrorism to counter-activist policies.

Egypt

Bombings in Suez, Sinai; police sent to trial

Two people were killed, and five wounded, when militants set off four roadside bombs targeting a security convoy in the Sinai Peninsula on 22 October. The convoy was travelling from Rafah, on the Gaza border, towards El Arish. The militants then exchanged fire with the security forces and fled. No one has yet claimed responsibility. The same day, militant group Ansar Beit Al Maqdis claimed responsibility for a car bombing on 19 October in Ismailiya that wounded six.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s public prosecutor has sent policemen to trial on charges of manslaughter over the deaths of 37 Islamist prisoners that were tear-gassed in a transport truck in August. The trials will be the first of policemen accused of killings in a massive crackdown of pro-Muslim Brotherhood supporters since army’s July 3 removal of president Mohamed Morsi.

Iraq

Sectarian violence continues

At least 17 people were killed and 20 wounded in bombings and shootings on 22 October, when Iraqi forces clashed with an Al Qaeda militant hideout in the Himreen Mountains. The clashes resulted in the killing of four militants and the capture of seven others, all of whom were wanted for terrorism charges. A helicopter pilot was also wounded by the gunmen during the operation.

Earlier in the day, a suicide bomber blew up an explosive-laden car at the entrance of the home of Waqass Adnan, mayor of the city of Aana, some 250 km west of Baghdad. The blast was followed by a coordinated attack on the guards of the house, in an attempt to break in. In the process, four policemen and the brother of the mayor were killed, and four policemen were wounded. The mayor himself unharmed.

Meanwhile, in separate incidents, another suicide bomber rammed his explosive-packed car into the entrance of Aana police station and blew it up, killing two policemen and wounding three others. Gunmen fired mortars at a police station in Rawa city, west of Baghdad, killing a policeman and wounding seven others; a farmer was killed and his relative wounded when gunmen fired at them near a bridge northeast of Baquba, and a worker in a Sunni mosque was wounded by gunmen who fired at him in front of his house, about 20 km northeast of Baquba.

Sectarian tension between Sunni and Shiite Muslims in the Diyala province has increased, resulting in violence and reprisal killings. Sunnis and Shiites accuse each other of supporting extremists and militiamen. Across the nation Iraq is witnessing its worst escalation of violence in recent years, causing analysts to fear that the country is returning to the civil conflict that peaked in 2006 and 2007, when monthly death toll sometimes exceeded 3,000.

Lebanon

Missiles from Syria Target Eastern Lebanon City

On 21 October, four rockets launched from Syria hit Hermel. The source was unable to confirm casualties. Hermel and other border areas of Lebanon have suffered frequent attacks since Syria’s uprising escalated into a civil war, sometimes impacting neighbouring Lebanon.

The eastern Lebanese city is a Hezbollah stronghold. Hezbollah, which supports the Syrian government led by Bashar al Assad, has been openly involved in Syria’s war, sending fighters to support the loyalist army on the battlefield.

Lebanon had been dominated politically and militarily by Syria for 30 years, until 2005. The country is heavily divided on pro and anti Assad lines. As a result, the war in Syria has served to escalate Lebanon’s sectarian and political divisions.

Libya

Disabled veterans break into Libyan parliament building

On October 22, several disabled former rebels from the Libyan War broke into the parliament building and vandalised parts of the building. The event occurred on the day before the second anniversary of the rebel victory over Gadhafi forces, days after the dictator was killed in Sirte.

The protesters came from the town of Ajdabiya, between Tripoli and eastern Libya. The city was a major battleground in the 2011 war.

An MP stated, “They got into the Congress chamber and smashed some fittings.” The chamber was empty at the time but the act was decried as a “new assault on a state institution.” The vandalism is the latest in a series of security breaches at the General National Congress building.

In an effort to increase security and gain acceptance from rebel groups, the government has given some militia units varying degrees of official recognition. However, their control over the units is minimal. Analysts are concerned about the interim government’s ability to assert its control over militias and security throughout the country. Former rebels units, some sympathetic to Al-Qaeda, have refused to surrender their arms.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia announces “major shift” in relationship with United States

On 22 October, Saudi Arabia’s intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan told European diplomats that the kingdom will make a “major shift” in its relations with the United States.

The prince criticised actions and inactions taken by the United States, including failing to act effectively on the Syria crisis and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; growing closer to the government in Tehran; and failing to back Saudi support for the Bahraini government when it crushed an anti-government revolt during the 2011 uprising. As a result, Prince Bandar has stated that he plans to limit interaction with the US, reportedly adding that there would be no further coordination with the United States over the fighting in Syria.

The report is consistent with Saudi Arabia’s reasons for refusal of a seat on the UN Security Council as a rotating member. Though they have not openly broken ties with the US, Saudi leaders have been quietly critical of several recent US actions in the Middle East.

Prince Bandar’s announcement marks a serious setback to the relationship between the two nations; it spotlights that Saudi and US interests are not aligned on several top issues driving instability in the Middle East. In particular, the Saudi’s point to the US shift toward a containment strategy regarding Iran’s nuclear program, and the US goal of driving Assad out while leaving a Baathist government in Damascus.  The Saudi’s have vocally stated that both Assad and his government should be replaced. The US treats Syrian issues as separate from Iranian nuclear issues. The Saudis perceive them as inseparable. The differences in these world views are deep, and unlikely to be overcome easily.  The change in stance could result in a strong shift in relations between the Middle East and the West.

Syria

Snipers targeting heavily pregnant women

Snipers are playing a “targeting game,” and heavily pregnant women are on the target list. David Nott, a British surgeon who volunteers with charity Syria Relief, says that up to 90% of the surgeries he performs daily are for sniper wounds. In the case of pregnant women, “Most of the children removed were seven, eight, nine month’s gestation, which meant it was fairly obvious to anybody that these women were pregnant.” He added that young children are also being targeted, and on some days, the wounds were “suspiciously similar”, with several victims coming in with shots to the same part of the body on the same day. The similarities suggest a game between the snipers.

Knott says he was told by other local doctors that snipers may receive little presents for people they’d shot during the day.

Tunisia

Mourning period announced for downed officers; Transition negotiations continue

In a televised speech on 23 October, Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki announced three days of national mourning for eight officers killed by suspected militants in the central Sidi Bouzidi province. The announcement was made on the second anniversary of the country’s first free elections. Members of the National Guard were securing a building in the village of Sidi Ali Bououn after receiving a tip-off that a suspicious group was hiding there. A gun battle ensued, killing both security forces and militants.

Marzouki said the militants were retaliating for attacks on 17 October, when nine suspected militants were killed. Authorities say the militants had carried out an attack on police patrols.

The interior ministry believes that the militants belong to the Salafist Ansar al-Sharia group, who were linked to the murders of prominent left-wing figure Chokri Belaid in February and opposition politician Mohammed Brahmi in July.

Their deaths triggered mass protests against the government, and crippled progress between the ruling party and its opposition. While Ennahda condemned the killings, the opposition accused the leading party of failing to rein in radical Islamists.

Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Ali Larayedh addressed the nation to confirm that the government would resign after talks with the opposition on appointing a caretaker administration were complete. Larayedh stated that Ennahda, the current ruling party in Tunisia, is committed to the “principle of relinquishing power in line with the different phases envisaged in the roadmap”.

Larayedh’s speech came following anti-government protests in Tunis, who demanded that the Islamist-led ruling coalition government leave immediately. Ennahda has been accused of stalling talks in order to maintain power in the government. Both Ennahda and the opposition have set a three weeks deadline to appoint the interim cabinet, and a one month deadline to adopt a new constitution, electoral laws and set an election date.

Fresh Fighting in Mozambique Sparks Fears of a New Civil War

Just days after the Renamo movement ended its peace accord, Zimbabwe has urged that the ex-rebel group in Mozambique end its fighting.

In what is an attack that has sparked fears across Mozambique of a possible return to civil war, on Tuesday, gunmen attacked a police station just after Renamo declared that the 1992 peace accord was no longer valid.  The attack on the police station, which occurred in the central town of Maringue, prompted officers to flee their posts.  According to Maringue’s administrator, Antonio Absaloa, there were no reported casualties however schools in the region remain closed in fears that further clashes may occur.

The town of Maringue is located about 35 kilometers (20 miles) from Renamo’s base in the central Gorongosa mountains.  The Renamo base was seized on Monday by Mozambique’s military, however the ex-rebels have indicated that the operation was aimed at killing its leader, Afonso Dhlakama.  Mozambique’s President Armando Guebuza however has stated that country’s soldiers acted in self-defence after Renamo militants fired at them.  The military raid on the bush camp prompted the Renamo to end the peace accord late on Monday.

Although the attack, and subsequent end of the peace accord, has sparked fears throughout the country and region that the ex-rebels may launch another civil war, on Tuesday an independent negotiator indicated that Mozambique’s President and representatives of Renamo were determined to avoid a return to war.  Lourenco do Rosario had indicated that Renamo “reaffirms that it does not want to return to war,” instead the opposition group has demanded that government forces pull back from its base in the Gorongosa mountains.  According to the independent negotiator, Renamo has also pledged that in exchange, it will not restart hostilities.”  In turn, Mozambique’s President Guebuza has also renewed his commitment, stating that “dialogue is the best way forward despite the skirmishes.”

Founded one year after Mozambique gained its independence from Portugal in 1975, Renamo (the Mozambican National Resistance Movement) was formed as an anti-Communist rebel group that was backed by South Africa’s former white-minority regime.  The group opposed the newly formed Marxist-leaning government, which was led by the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo), resulting in tensions between the Frelimo and Renamo which later escalated into a civil war that was fought between 1977 and 1992.  Backed by colonial Rhodesia, Renamo was used in order to destablize the Frelimo government, which supported the Zimbabwe liberation fighters.  Once Zimbabwe gained its independence in 1980, Renamo formed an alliance with South Africa’s apartheid regime, which would later supply the group with arms.  During the sixteen year bush war, more than a million people were killed.  The 1992 Rome peace accord ended the war and paved the way for multi-party elections, which were held in 1994.  During the nationwide elections, Renamo lost, later becoming Mozambique’s official opposition.  During the 2009 polls, Renamo had attained only 16.5 percent of the vote, losing to President Armando Guebuza.  This loss prompted Renamo’s dejected leader, Afonso Dhlakama, to threaten fresh fighting.  By October 2012, in the face of dwindling political support, Dhlakama set up a camp in the Gorongosa mountains, where he undertook the training of former guerrilla fighters,who at the time, numbered no more than a thousand.  In November of last year, Dhlakama indicated to the public that he was willing to “destroy Mozambique” if Renamo did not get a larger share of the country’s growing wealth.  Although the rebel group, turned opposition, has repeatedly insisted it gain greater inclusion in the Frelimo government, including an overhaul of electoral laws, the Frelimo government has rejected its pleas, including a plea to renegotiate the terms of the 1992 peace accord.  Currently, the Renamo movement is though to have about 1,000 fighters and fifty-one MP’s.

Since the end of the civil war, Renamo has repeatedly contested the country’s elections, however it has failed to dislodge Frelimo from power.  In turn, they have complained that the Frelimo government is determined in holding on to power, which has resulted in the failure to create conditions for free and fair elections.  While the Renamo have pulled out of the peace accord, its fifty-one MP’s have not withdrawn from parliament.  Mozambique is due to hold local elections in November, with presidential and parliamentary elections set to take place next year.

Al-Shabaab Turns To A More Regional Focus

One month after Somalia’s al-Shabaab militants stormed Kenya’s Westgate shopping centre, killing sixty-seven people during a four-day siege, the threat from the militant group, and local sympathizers, remains high as officials in Somalia and in the African Union (AU) look towards increasing troop numbers in a bid to completely destroy a group which has transformed itself into a regional threat.

Posters reading “if you haven’t learnt the lesson Westgate, more is coming,” which were posted up last week during rallies held in the southern Somali port of Barawe, an al-Shabaab stronghold, confirm what is already going on throughout the country.  Over the past number of months, al-Shabaab has significantly increased its attacks, both within Somalia and near the border regions with Kenya and Ethiopia, both countries which have deployed troops to Somalia in order to combat the militant group.  While these attacks will not stop any time soon, recent remarks made by commanders within the group have indicated that al-Shabaab may increasingly place pressure on those states that have deployed troops in Somalia in a bid to force their withdrawal.

While over the past two years, AMISOM forces throughout Somalia have dislodged al-Shabaab from a number of its strongholds, including from the capital city of Mogadishu and the surrounding regions, as well as from the southern port city of Kismayo, the militant group has continued to carry out assassinations of politicians and journalists along with a number of suicide bombings that have targeted troops and security officials.  While most of the groups‘ previous attacks have typically been small in scale, al-Shabaab has carried out large scale attacks in Somalia and in the region, such as the June 2013 attack on a UN compound in Mogadishu or the 2010 bombings in Kampala which killed seventy-six people.  However this more recent attack on the Nairobi mall has demonstrated a significant and worrying step up in al-Shabaab’s operations, with the group now seemingly increasingly concentrating on attacks that require longer periods of planning and surveillance.  Uganda’s announcement last week that it had increased its security level in the capital city of Kampala, after officials from the US Embassy indicated that they had credible information of a possible terror attack linked to al-Shabaab, also signified that the terrorist group may now increasingly focus on targeting regional interests, especially in those countries which have deployed troops to battle the militant group in Somalia. This recent move may also signify that al-Shabaab is turning its focus from Somalia’s internal politics to a more global agenda, similar to al-Qaeda, which the group is aligned with.

The battle to defeat al-Shabaab will now likely have to concentrate not only within Somalia, but also throughout the wider region, including in the countries that have deployed their armies in Somalia, such as Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda.  While the AU force in Somalia has requested that its size be increased by a quarter, which will amount to 23,000 troops, preventing al-Shabaab from attaining territorial gains within Somalia will not eliminate the group entirely.  A UN report recently indicated that “al-Shabaab continues to pose a regional and international threat through its affiliates,” noting that as AU troops have seized more territory throughout Somalia, there has been an “increasing exodus” of foreign fighters, some of whom left “with the intention of supporting jihad in the region.”  Last week’s announcement that a Norwegian citizen of Somali origin, 23-year-old Hassan Abdi Dhuhulow, was suspected of being one of the attackers in the Westgate incident confirmed what United Nations experts have already noted.  That dozens, if not hundreds, of young men from countries across the Horn of Africa travel to Somalia in order to train with al-Shabaab militants.  In turn, it remains unknown whether the Westgate attackers were sent specifically from Somalia, or whether they were a “homegrown” team recruited within Kenya.  Consequently increasingly focusing on fighters coming from Western or Arab nations, along with local sympathizers and groups aligned with al-Shabaab across eastern Africa, will be a necessary step in fighting the militant group.