MS Risk Blog

Tuareg Rebel Movements in Mali Announce Merger

Three Tuareg and Arab rebel movements announce their merger.  Meanwhile insecurity continues to destabilize the country with a new attack occurring in northern Mali.

On Monday 4 November 2013, three Tuareg and Arab rebel movements in northern Mali announced their merger to form a united front in peace talks with authorities in the Malian capital city Bamako.  According to reports, after several days of talks in Burkina Faso, which is the regional mediator for the conflict, representatives of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) along with the Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) and the High Council for the Unity of Azawad (HCUA) adopted a “political platform,” a “negotiating committee,” and a joint “decision-making body.”  The three rebel movements further indicated that the decision to merge was “guided by a common political will to prioritize the best interests of the people” of the vast northern desert region they call Azawad, adding that a political solution was the only option in securing peace.  According to the groups, the merger will go ahead “within 45 days” after the membership of each of the groups had approved the move, adding that no name has yet been chosen for the new movement.

Meanwhile in the latest insecurity to hit the country, on Monday four people were killed in northern Mali after their truck ran over a land mine.  According to a local government official in Menaka, four passengers were killed when a pick-up, which was transporting thirty-eight people between the desert towns of Ansongo and Menaka in the region of Gao, drove over the explosive device.  Ibrahim Ag Moha further indicated that ‘four people died on the spot and eight others were injured, and are currently being taken to hospital in Menaka.”  Two of the injured are reported to be in critical condition.  The truck was a public transport vehicle.  It currently remains unknown who is responsible for laying the mine however a report released by the United Nations earlier this year indicated that unexploded ordnance and land mines littering the West African nation remained a “significant threat.”

The latest unrest comes as the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon arrived in Mali late on Monday to begin a regional tour that will highlight the battle against poverty.  The Secretary General, along with World Bank President Jim Yong Kim and top officials from the African Union, African Development Bank and European Union are scheduled to meet in Mali on Tuesday before travelling to Niger later that day and Burkina Faso and Chad on Wednesday.  They are scheduled to meet the presidents of each country.    Ahead of his visit to Mali, Mr. Ban stated that eleven million of the 80 million people living in the Sahel countries lack sufficient food.‘  According to a statement released by World Bank chief Jim Yong Kim, “the people of the Sahel region desperately need more secure living standards, and our hope is this funding helps build a new path for economic growth in the region.”  The European Union and the World Bank have pledged more than US $8 billion in fresh aid for the Sahel region countries which have been affected by conflict.

The Secretary General’s official visit to Mali comes at a time when French and Malian troops are searching for the killers of Ghislaine Dupont and Claude Verlon, who were kidnapped and shot dead by suspected terrorists on Saturday in the northeastern town of Kidal.  The deaths of the two French journalists have further highlighted the ongoing security threat just three weeks ahead of parliamentary elections which are meant to mark the completion of Mali’s transition back to democracy following a military coup in March last year.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Leader Killed by Drone Strike; New TTP Leader Chosen

Yesterday, Friday November 1st, Hakimullah Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban, or TTP) was killed by an American drone strike. Though Mehsud’s death has been inaccurately reported in the past, in this instance the TTP has confirmed he was killed and has been buried. Pakistani officials have reacted furiously to the strike, as they were on the verge of beginning peace talks with the TTP in the hope of ending the insurgency. A particularly high degree of security awareness should be maintained in Pakistan, as the TTP has responded ferociously to the targeted killings of leaders with revenge attacks in the past, including against foreigners. Mehsud, reportedly in his mid-30s, was on his way home from a TTP meeting at a local mosque when the car he was travelling was hit, killing him along with 4 others in the vehicle. The attack took place in North Waziristan, part of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), a series of provinces dominated by militant groups. Mehsud had loose control over the more than 30 groups that comprise the TTP. He took over from the group’s founder, Baitullah Mehsud, who was killed in a drone strike in 2009. The United States had placed a $5 million bounty on his head if captured alive. Hakimullah Mehsud’s leadership saw a noticeable expansion of TTP activities in Pakistan, and intensified the insurgency that has claimed tens of thousands of lives across the country. This has increased further in recent months, with regular and major attacks in Pakistan, including those targeting non-traditional victims, such as Pakistan’s tiny Christian minority. The TTP under his leadership was also responsible for the attempted bombing in Times Square in 2010, and the attack that killed 7 CIA employees in Afghanistan in 2009. Pakistani officials are furious about Mehsud’s death, with the killing threatening to further damage already strained US-Pakistan relations. The new government of Nawaz Sharif has been pursuing peace talks with the TTP in a bid to end the country’s security situation, already extremely problematic and spiralling out of control in recent years. Reportedly, a three man negotiation team was travelling to meet Mehsud and begin peace talks today. Pakistani officials have accused the United States of attempting to sabotage the nascent peace process, and the two nation’s already troubled relationship will likely deteriorate further as a result. Some local leaders in the FATA have also pledged to cut crucial supply lines to ISAF forces in Afghanistan. However, the peace talks may actually benefit from Mehsud’s death. Though he was in favour of opening negotiations, his conditions and views were seen as relatively harsh and conservative. His successor, Khan Said Sajna, was appointed today and is the leader of a strong TTP faction that is notably more open to discussions with the government in Islamabad. In the long term, the ascendance of more peaceable TTP factions may play in Pakistan’s favour. In the short term however, serious challenges remain. Some TTP factions are reportedly already unhappy with the new leadership, claiming not enough time was taken over the decision. Factionalism in the group may intensify, as it is already a very factional and decentralised organisation facing serious questions surrounding its future and talks with the government. Immediate effects to TTP operations are also unlikely, as the group operates largely without a centralised leadership and has an amorphous organisational structure. The TTP has pledged to carry out revenge attacks for the death of Mehsud, and it is very likely to carry this out. The group possesses a formidable capability for targeted and indiscriminate attacks throughout the country, and security has been stepped up across Pakistan as a result. Particularly concerning, the TTP has reportedly formed a new sub-group designed to target foreigners in revenge for the deaths of leaders in drone strikes – the killing of senior leader Wali-ur Rehman in June prompted the execution of 10 foreigner climbers at the base of Nanga Parbat. An extremely high degree of security awareness should be maintained in Pakistan, as the likelihood of revenge attacks for Mehsud’s death is very high.

UN Security Council to Vote on Increasing AMISOM Troops in Somalia

Diplomats indicated on Wednesday that the UN Security Council is expected to soon authorize 4,000 more troops in order to boost the African force that is battling resurgent al-Shabaab militants in Somalia.  According to reports, the council is likely to allow a new upper limit of about 22,000 troops for the African Union force, which is known as AMISOM.  During a recent Security Council meeting on Somalia, which specifically focused on efforts to support the country’s interim government, UN Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson stated that advances made by the African force, along with the Somali army, had “ground to a halt” because it lacked a sufficient number of troops.  According to the UN Deputy, al-Shabaab “is mobile and is training and recruiting substantial numbers of frustrated, unemployed young men.”  During the meeting, the UN Deputy reaffirmed an earlier call made by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the African Union for “a significant temporary boost” to AMISOM’s numbers.  In a recent report to the Security Council, the Secretary-General indicated that there is an urgent need to reinforce AMISOM in order to move into southern Somalia to “deny Shebaab the opportunity to raise resources and to forcefully recruit and train personnel.”  Britain is drawing up a resolution on increasing the force, which is expected to be voted by the Security Council in mid-November.  The resolution would effectively allow for an increase of about 4,000 troops in order to allow an upper limit for AMISOM of about 22,000 troops.  The call for an increase in troops comes amidst mounting warning pertaining to al-Shabaab’s increasing threat after the Nairobi shopping mall attack last month.  While the AMISOM force, along with the Somali army, have pushed al-Shabaab militants out of the capital city, along with other major cities, over the past eighteen months, al-Shabaab has been able to regroup and stage large and elaborate attacks, such as the one on Westgate Mall in Nairobi on September 17.  In turn, suicide bombers have been able to stage attacks in Mogadishu, which is government controlled.  If the increase in troops is to pass in a Security Council vote, the new deployment of troops will likely be tasked with focusing on removing al-Shabaab militants from the southern region of Somalia, particularly from their new stronghold of Barawe.  In recent weeks, the town has been the focus of two missions carried out by US forces.  The first focused on targeting a senior al-Shabaab commander, known as Ikrima, while the second, a drone strike, killed three al-Shabaab commanders, including the militant group’s top bomb-maker.  In turn, sources indicate that al-Shabaab militants stationed in Barawe have been planning attacks not only throughout the rest of the country, but regionally as well.

Meanwhile, for the first time, Somalia’s President visited the southern port city of Kismayo on Thursday, which is a former al-Shabaab stronghold that is now controlled by a warlord who has long been opposed to the region being controlled by the central government in Mogadishu.  While no further details of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s visit have been released by his spokesman, Abdirahman Omar Osman, the trip does signal a step forward in relations with the breakaway region.   Shortly after the President’s visit, al-Shabaab spokesman Abdulaziz Abu Musab boasted that the group’s militants fired dozens of artillery and mortar rounds at the “infidel leader,” however officials have dismissed this claim.  The president’s spokesman later confirmed that “there was no mortar attacks at Kismayo airport contrary to al-Shabaab claims.”  The visit also comes amidst efforts to increase support for the central government and is seen as a bid to combat the threat from al-Shabaab militants who continue to control large areas around the port city.  Kismayo, which is patrolled by Kenyan and Sierra Leonean troops from the African Union force, is controlled by the Ras Kamboni militia of warlord Ahmed Madobe, who has claimed leadership over the southern semi-autonomous region of Jubbaland.  The region lies in the far south of Somalia, bordering both Kenya and Ethiopia, and its control is split between multiple forces including clan militias, al-Shabaab and Kenyan and Ethiopian troops.  Al-Shabaab forces currently control their last major port at Barawe, which is located some 250 kilometers northeast of Kismayo.  However African Union forces are moving closer to capturing control of the town.    Taking Barawe would result in al-Shabaab loosing a vital area and in turn, it would link up AU forces who are currently split between Jubbaland and Mogadishu.

US Drone Strike in Somalia Kills al-Shabaab Bomb-Maker

Days after a drone strike, carried out by US forces, targeted al-Shabaab militants in the southern Somali town of Jilib, government officials have confirmed that three senior al-shabaab commanders, including an explosives expert, have been killed.

On Tuesday, one day after the attack, residents near the site of the strike reported three people dead in a vehicle, which had burst into flames shortly after the sound of an aircraft was heard overhead.  The drone strike had targeted a Suzuki four-wheel-drive as it made its way along a road leading rom Barawe, the site of failed night-time assault that was mounted by US special forces earlier this month, to Jilib in southern Somalia.

Amongst those killed in Monday’s drone strike was Ibrahim Ali Abdi, also known as Anta-Anta.  According to Somalia Interior Minister Abdikarin Hussein Guled, Somalia’s intelligence services had been tracking him for some time before the drone strike was carried out.  During a government radio interview, the minister stated that “the operation in which this many had been killed was very important for the government.  This man had a major role in the death of many innocent civilians and his death will help in brining back peace.”  The two other men who were killed in the strike were Abdikarim Kibi-Kibi and Warsame Baale, deputy commanders of two al-Shabaab units that control large areas of southern Somalia.

Somalia’s government officials have described Abdi as being the head of al-Shabaab’s bomb-making division.  He was well-known for making suicide bomber vests and preparing car bombs that had been used regularly by militants in order to attack government officials and African Union peacekeepers.  According to the Prime Minister’s spokesman, who noted that the Somali government had welcomed the strike, “he was al-Shabaab’s chief suicide bomb-maker, he was responsible for numerous bomb attacks which claimed the lives of many Somalis,” adding that “it is a victory for the Somali people that such dangerous individuals should be taken out.”  So far, there have been no comments released by al-Shabaab, however the death of a top bomb-maker will likely force the group to reconfigure its operations as they train new militants to take over the role.

While Somali’s Interior Minister did not specify who was behind the drone attack, on official in Washington confirmed that the US army was responsible.  While the official did not indicate where the drone was launched from, the US army operates these devices from its bases located in neighboring Djibouti and Arba Minch, in southern Ethiopia.  Furthermore, the fact that such an operation was authorized by US President Barack Obama, signifies that officials in Washington will likely now go after operatives even if they have not directly targeted American interests.

The latest strike to target Somalia comes weeks after an audacious attack on the Westgate mall in Nairobi, which was claimed by al-Shabaab and which killed sixty-seven people.  The missile strike also follows a raid that was carried out by US Navy SEALs on the southern port city of Barawe in early October.  That mission however failed to hit the alleged target, Abdulkadir Mohamed Abdulkadir, a senior al-Shabaab militant leader who remains on the run.

The strike comes weeks after an audacious attack on the Westgate Mall in Nairobi, which was claimed by al-Shabaab.  It is also the missile strike also follows a raid that was carried out by US Navy SEALS on the southern port city of Barawe in early October.  That mission failed to hit the alleged target, Abdulkadir Mohamed Abdulkadir, a senior al-Shabaab militant leader.

Air Strikes in Somalia; Dozens Die in Niger

According to residents, an air strike in southern Somalia has killed two senior al-Shabaab commanders.  Meanwhile in Niger, a number of travellers are feared to have died of thirst while attempting to cross the Sahara on their way to Europe.

According to local residents, an air strike destroyed the vehicle of al-Shabaab militants who were travelling in between the towns of Jilib and Barawe, which is seen as a major base of al-Shabaab.  A Kenyan military source has indicated that their troops raided Jilib however it is unlikely that they carried out the airstrike.  Reports have indicated that the strike was probably a drone attack.  Jilib is located some 120 kilometers (75 miles) north of the port city of Kismayo.  The air strike comes weeks after the US launched a failed raid in Barawe earlier this month.  The US was believed o have sought to capture al-Shabaab commander Abdukadir Mohamed Abdukadir, also known as Ikrima, whoever US commands were forced to retreat after meeting heavy resistance.  Ikrima is an al-Shabaab leader who is responsible for logistics.  According to residents of Barawe, he is known to be usually accompanied by about twenty well-armed guards.

The US has previously carried out a number of air strikes in Somalia.  In 2008, a US strike killed al-Shabaab commander Aden Hashi Ayro.  One year later, another strike killed Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan.  He was accused of being involved in the 1998 bombing of the US embassy in Nairobi along with the 2002 attacks on a hotel and airline in Mombasa.

Meanwhile in Niger, officials have stated that dozens of people traversing the Sahara desert, on their way to Europe, are feared to have died of thirst.  According to the governor of Agadez, five bodies have been found while a further thirty-five are missing after a vehicle carrying the passengers broke down, forcing them to set off in order to seek help.  The bodies found are of two women and three girls aged 9 – 11.  The rest of the travellers consisted of “entire families, including very many children and women.”

Reports have indicated that after one vehicle broke down, passengers went to look for spare parts in order to bring them back for repairs.  It is believed that the migrants broke up into small groups.  Days later, the survivors, who reached Arlit, a town known for its uranium mining, alerted the army however the troops arrived too late at the scene.  The authorities have called off the search for the missing.    According to the mayor of Agadex, Rhissa Feltou, two vehicles had left the town of Arlit, which is located north of Agadez, earlier this month.  They were carrying “at least” sixty migrants.    The city of Agadez lies on one of the main migrant routes from West Africa to Europe.

Over the past month, hundreds of migrants have died after their boats sans as they attempted to cross the Mediterranean Sea.