EU Leaders Warn of Further Sanctions on Russia

European Union leaders warned Russia on Thursday that it faces further sanctions.  German Chancellor Angela Merkel has stated that Russia will face escalating EU sanctions if it does not take steps to east the crisis over Crimea.  Speaking ahead of an EU summit in Brussels, Mrs Merkel indicated that the current political situation also means that the G8 effectively no longer exists.

Tensions in Crimea remain high after its leaders signed a deal with Moscow to split from Ukraine and to join Russia.  Following Sunday’s referendum, which the West and Kiev have stated was illegal, Crimean leaders signed a treaty with Moscow on Tuesday to absorb the peninsula, which was an autonomous republic in southern Ukraine, into Russia.  Tensions on the peninsula increased Wednesday, after pro-Russian forces took over at least two military bases in Sevastopol and Novo-Ozyorne.  Ukraine’s Navy Commander, Serhiy Hayduk, was also detained, however he has since been released.   Russia’s lower house is set to vote on ratifying the Crimea treaty on Thursday, with the upper house voting on Friday.  The measure is expected to pass with minimal opposition.  In a resolution on Thursday, Ukraine’s parliament indicated that the country would “never and under no circumstances end the fight to free Crimea of occupants, no matter how difficult and long it is.”

Further Sanctions

Western leaders have denounced Russia’s actions in Crimea as a violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and a breach of international law.  The EU has already imposed sanctions on twenty-one people connected to Moscow’s intervention in Crimea, and is expected to discuss expanding the sanctions, when it meets Thursday, to include political and military figures close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Speaking in Berlin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has stated that Russia will face escalating EU sanctions if it does not take steps to ease the crisis over Crimea.  Speaking ahead of an EU summit in Brussels, Mrs Merkel indicated that the current political situation also means that the G8 effectively no longer exists.  She added that the EU would “make clear that we are ready at any time” to increase sanctions against Russia “if there is a worsening of the situation.”  According to the German Chancellor, the EU will also “draw consequences for the political relations between the EU and Russia, as well as for relations between the G7 and Russia….It is obvious:  as long as the political context for such an important format like the G8 does not apply, as is the case at the moment, the G8 doesn’t exist anymore.  While the German Chancellor did not specify what the sanctions will be, it does remain unclear whether Germany expects Russia to undo the integration of Crimea into Russia in order to avoid tough economic measures.  The G8, which comprises of seven of the world’s leading industrialised nations, and Russia, is scheduled to hold a summit in the southern Russian city of Sochi in June.

 The United States has also ordered the freezing of assets and travel bans on eleven individuals, with officials indicating that they are considering expanding these.  However on Wednesday, President Barack Obama ruled out US military involvement in Ukraine, stating “we do not need to trigger an actual war with Russia.”  United Nations General Secretary Ban Ki-moon is expected to meet with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday before travelling to Kiev where he will meet with the Ukrainian interim government on Friday.  The UN Chief has called for a solution to the crisis that will be guided by the principles of the UN Charter, including sovereignty, territorial integrity and the unity of Ukraine.

Pro-Russian Activists Take Over Ukrainian Base

Pro-Russian activists have taken control of the headquarters of Ukraine’s navy in the Crimean city of Sevastopol.

Reports in Crimea have indicated that pro-Russian forces appear to have taken control of the Ukrainian base in Sevastopol, the port city which houses Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.  Television footage depicted around 200 people, some armed, breaking down the gates and going in to negotiate with senior Ukrainian personnel.  On the ground sources have indicated that no shots were fired during the take over however Ukrainian Navy Chief Serhiy Hayduk has reportedly been detained and the Russian flag is now flying over the base.  Although officials in Kiev ordered its troops to stay in place, a number of Ukrainian servicemen were later seen leaving the base carrying their belongings.  Others are believed to still be inside, refusing to surrender.

The reported takeover of the Ukrainian base came one day after Ukraine’s army indicated that a soldier had been killed in an attack on a base in Crimea’s capital, Simferopol.  Russia also indicated that one member of the pro-Russian “self-defence” force in Crimea had also been killed.  The reports however have not been independently confirmed.  Ukraine’s interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk warned Tuesday that “the conflict is shifting from a political to a military stage.”

The latest developments in the on going crisis come one day after Crimean leaders signed a treaty with Moscow, effectively absorbing the peninsula into Russia.  Russia’s constitutional court has approved the accession treaty, and there is minimal doubt that parliament will also give its full backing.  The move on Tuesday followed Sunday’s referendum, which approved Crimea’s split from Ukraine.  The vote, which showed 97% of voters in favour of joining Russia, has been widely condemned by the West.  The West and the Ukrainian government in Kiev have indicated that the hastily organized referendum was illegal and will not be recognized.  UK Prime Minister David Cameron has stated that the EU must send “a clear warning” to Russia, adding that the G8 group should discuss whether to expel Russia “if further steps are taken.”

The US and the EU are amongst those who have already imposed sanctions on several officials from Russia and Ukraine who have been accused of being involved in Moscow’s actions in Crimea.  Brussels and the White House have stated that the sanctions will be expanded, with Moscow warning that this move was “unacceptable and will not remain without consequences.”

Amidst the growing tensions, Ukrainian Defence Minister Ihor Tenyukh and First Deputy Prime Minister Vitaly Yarema travelled to Crimea on Wednesday to try to defuse the tensions however they wee prevented from entering.  United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is heading to the region, and will meet with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday and with Ukraine’s interim leaders in Kiev on Friday.

Militant Fighters Attack Hotel in Strategic Central Town in Somalia

Security officials in Somalia confirmed Tuesday that a suicide bomber had struck a vehicle packed full of explosives into a hotel in a southern town, just days after it was recaptured by Government forces from al-Shabaab.   According to security official Sulieman Adam, “there was a suicide attack involving terrorists at a hotel in Buulo Burde,” where African Union (AU) peacekeepers and Somali army commanders were staying.  According to the official, the blast happened at 02:00 local time (23:00 GMT) with fighting continuing until about 07:00.  About fourteen people, mainly fighters from both sides, were killed, with another twenty-four wounded and taken to hospital.

A spokesman for al-Shabaab has confirmed that the militant group was behind the attack, stating that thirty AU and army commanders had been killed.  Authorities however have yet to comment on the attack.  Reports have indicated that communications to the central Hiran region went down not long after the fighting and gunfire ended.

The attack on the hotel in the strategic central town comes after the militants lost control of Buulo Burde last week.  It was captured as part of an on going AU and government offensive against al-Shabaab, which continues to control much of southern and central Somalia. On the ground sources have indicated that al-Shabaab had occupied Buulo Burde for more than five years.  The town, which has a strategic bridge over the River Shabelle and is at a crossroads linking various regions of the country, was an important base for al-Shabaab.

The incident in Buulo Burde came as a convoy of African Union’s AMISOM force was targeted by a car bomb just outside the Somali capital on Monday.   The attack took place near a checkpoint on the road linking Mogadishu and the town of Afgoye.  A witness reported that “…a suicide bomber rammed his car into an AMISOM convoy,” adding that “there was a heavy explosion at the Alamada area…, we don’t know about the casualties but I saw military ambulances rushing to the scene.”  A Somali military official, Omar Adan, confirmed the attack however declined to give the number of casualties.  Mr. Adan blamed militants from al-Shabaab, stating “al-Qaeda linked militants, who have lost ground, are attempting desperate attacks.”

Although al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that seven Burundian peacekeepers and five American nations travelling in the vehicles were killed on Monday afternoon, AMISOM spokesman Col. Ali Adan Humad has denied that there were any casualties.  Monday’s attack came just days after a car bomb went off in central Mogadishu near a hotel popular with government officials and businessmen.  Saturday’s attack injured at least one person, however so far no claims of responsibility for the attack have been made.

In February alone, major attacks in Mogadishu have included a car bomb at the gates of the airport, a major suicide attack on the presidential palace and a car bombing on a café located close to the intelligence headquarters.

Meanwhile, Kenyan police authorities indicated Monday that they had arrested two men who were driving a vehicle packed with explosives in the Indian Ocean resort city of Mombasa.  According to Henry Ondiek of the Mombasa Criminal Investigation Department, “we have not established where the target was, but we have detained two terror suspects who were in the vehicle,” adding “we were tipped off that the two were headed for an attack on an unspecified place and we laid an ambush and got them.”  One police source indicated that the two men were of Somali origin, signalling that they were likely members or supporters of Somalia’s al-Shabaab militant group.  According to Kenyan police, two homemade bombs were found in the vehicle, along with a mobile phone, which could have been used as a detonator.   The arrest of the two suspected terrorists comes after Kenya’s top security chiefs warned last month of “increased threats of radicalization” from home-grown Islamists, singling out Mombasa’s Musa mosque as a specific centre encouraging extremism, along with two others.  Over the past several years, Kenya has suffered a string of attacks, which have all been blamed on al-Shabaab, including the September 2013 massacre in Nairobi’s Westgate mall in which at least sixty-seven people were killed.

Welcome to Russia: Crimea Declares Independence and Applies to Join Russia

Following Sunday’s referendum in Crimea, the European Union (EU) has agreed to impose travel bans and asset freezes against twenty-one officials from Russia and the Ukraine.  The EU announced its new sanctions after a meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels, with Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Linas Linkevic indicated that further measures were expected to be taken in the upcoming days.

The move comes just one day after Crimea’s referendum, in which officials indicate that 96.6% of voters backed breaking away from Ukraine and joining Russia.  On Monday, Crimea declared its independence and applied to join Russia.  This is the most radical redrawing of the European map since Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence from Serbia.

The Ukraine’s interim president Oleksandr Turchynov denounced the vote as a “great farce.”  Ukraine’s lawmakers also approved a partial mobilisation of the army, which is aimed at countering Russian troops’ effective seizure of Crimea.  The defence minister also insisted that Ukrainian troops would stay in the strategic Black Sea region.

Although EU officials have not released any names of the twenty-one officials, who will have travel bans and asset freezes imposed on them, they will reportedly affect top Russian ministers and presidential aids, however not Putin himself, and are mean to demonstrate the West’s united resolve to punish Kremlin for its overt show of post-Soviet might.  Despite the sanctions, Putin has signalled that he has no intentions of turning back on what he describes as his defence of ethnic Russians who have come under increasing attack from Ukrainian ultranationalists.  Other authorities in Moscow and ordinary Russians have also appeared unfazed by the threat of Western sanctions and international isolation.

The latest crisis follows the ousting on 22 February 2014 of Ukraine’s pro-Moscow president Victor Yanukovych, who had sparked months of street protests by rejecting a planned EU trade deal in favour of closer ties with Moscow.  Pro-Russian forces have been in control of Crimea since late February however Moscow has on a number of occasions stipulated that the troops are pro-Russian self-defence forces and are not under its direct control.

Most of the international community has rejected the referendum, calling it illegal because Russia had vowed to respect its neighbour’s territorial integrity under a 1994 agreement that saw Ukraine renounce its Soviet-era nuclear arms.  The White House indicated over the weekend that US President Barack Obama had warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that Washington and its allies would “never” recognize Crimea’s breakaway vote.  However the government in Crimea has announced a series of measures that are aimed at severing its ties with Ukraine.  Amongst these are seizing Ukrainian institutions and plans to set the peninsula on Moscow time.

On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin will address both houses of Parliament over Crimea’s vote to leave Ukraine and become a part of Russia.  According to Ivan Melnikov, the first deputy speaker of the lower house, the State Duma, “the speech of the president with an address on Crimea has been scheduled for 3 PM (1100 GMT).  The Kremlin has confirmed the statement however the contents of Putin’s address have not been revealed.  State Duma speaker Sergei Naryshkin indicated that Russia will recognize Crimea’s independence from Ukraine in a special treaty, with lawmakers also stating that they would accelerate procedures to allow Crimea to join Russia and fast-track bills to give out Russian passports to local residents.

Examining Libya: Regionalism, Oil, Conflict and Nation Building

As Libya strives toward national stability, the nation is met by conflicts stemming from regional and tribal divisions. Last month, only 14% of eligible Libyan voters went to the polls to elect the body responsible for drafting their new constitution. In the past week, rebel held oil ports conducted illegal trade with an oil tanker, and days ago, Libya’s prime minister was ousted in a vote of no confidence. Despite the strides taken toward progress, national stability has been slowed by the tribal loyalties and the resurgence of federalist desires.

Understanding Regions and Tribes in Libya

There are over 140 tribes present in Libya, broken up by twenty major tribal groups across three Libyan states, Tripolitania in the west, Cyrenaica to the east, and Libya’s oldest province, Fezzan, in the south. A tribe is essentially a social organisation with its own ethics, system of justice, and internal politics. Tribal borders between are not easily distinguished, sometimes leading to conflict based on historical claims to territories. However the regional borders of Libya’s states have existed as early as the 7^th century BCE.

The three provinces of Libya existed as loosely connected autonomous states until King Idris passed a constitutional amendment in 1963 to abolishing the federal system in favour of a unified government. When Idris was overthrown by Gadhafi in 1969, the unification remained in place. Despite the shift in power, tribal groups were still treated as second class citizens, for example, in the southern town of Ubari in the Fezzan region, nearly 14,000 Tuareg families have been denied Libyan ID numbers, and thus have no access to state benefits. Many tribes complain of racial discrimination or poor access to government resources. As a result, tribal and regional identity often supersedes national identity. Tribal relations with their national leaders are considered matters of “foreign policy.”

Impact on Libya

In the post-Gadhafi era in Libya, tribal and regional groups have sought to regain and protect their autonomy and identity. In some cases, this desire has lead to tension between regions and the national government, and resulted in armed clashes and threats to break away from the state.

During the 2011 civil war, many tribal militias formed to support or oppose Gadhafi’s regime. In the post-Gadhafi era, the transitional government restructured some allied militias into an ersatz security apparatus. However, other militias formed during the war remained in place to secure their own tribal or regional aims.

Strife stemming from tribal and regional affiliations has become most visible since the summer of 2013. In the Fezzan region, regional and tribal militias slowed—and in some cases halted—production of oil due to disputes with the national government. In the east, a federalist group called the Cyrenaica Transitional Council (CTC) declared self-government in June 2013. The CTC desires to create an autonomous state and take control of a portion of national oil revenues.

In July, Ibrahim Jedhran became the leader of the self-styled Political Bureau of Cyrenaica. By July 2013, his group had successfully seized three oil terminals in al-Sidra, Ras Lanuf, and Zueitina. Together, these ports accounted the export of nearly 700,000 barrels of oil per day.

Federalism in the East

Libyan Prime Minster Ali Zeidan said in December 2013, “We are producing oil at perhaps a fifth of our capacity and are carrying out some limited exporting operations. The issue is that the guards [the Petroleum Facilities Guard] who were assigned to protect the oil facilities betrayed their homeland and seized control of the facilities.”

The Petroleum Facilities Guard were members of the armed militias formed to fight the Gaddafi regime, but were not disbanded. They are loyal to Jedhran and Cyrenaica, not Libya. Jedhran formed his own oil company, the Libyan Oil and Gas Corporation (LOGC). Despite battles with the Tripoli government, the Cyrenaica separatists were able to maintain control of the ports. By October 2013, Jedhan and the federalists announced a government for Cyrenaica, including a prime minister, deputy prime minister, and 24 other ministers. The Cyrenaica government is also planning to recruit and train a Cyrenaican Defence Force.

Prime Minister Zeidan declared intentions to stop vessels from trading with Jedhran’s company, issuing threats to bomb any ship that attempts to export oil without the approval of Libya’s National Oil Company (NOC). Ignoring this threat, on 6 January, 2014, the LOGC prepared to provide crude oil to Maltese flagged vessel. The Libyan navy fired on the ship, causing them to turn away.

The LOGC had not attempted trade again until Saturday (8 March), when a North Korean-flagged tanker docked in al-Sidra port and loaded 234,000 barrels of crude, worth about $36 million US. The ship, called the Morning Glory, became the first vessel to load oil from a rebel-held port. By Sunday, warships were deployed to block the Morning Glory, and Culture Minister Amin al-Habib warned that the tanker would be “turned into a pile of metal” if it tried to leave port. However, the ship successfully manoeuvred into international waters, as the small patrol boats sent to follow the ship were hindered by bad weather.

The Morning Glory’s escape served a humiliating blow to the national government in Tripoli. On Monday the Libyan parliament ordered the formation of a military force, comprised of soldiers and allied militia groups to “liberate the ports within weeks.” That same day, a no-confidence motion was approved by 124 of the 194 members of the General National Congress (GNC), and Prime Minister Zeidan was removed from office, replaced by Defence Minister Abdullah al-Thani, until a permanent replacement can be chosen within two weeks.

Can the Government Regain Control?

The inability of Libya’s national government to intervene is indicative of their lack of power.  The government has used ultimatums in an attempt to control tribes and militias, but ultimatums are largely ignored or met with violence. It appears that the tribes and militias in Libya do not have faith in the central government, as indicated by the low turnout in February’s polls. The GNC continues to work on writing a new national constitution, and hopes to have higher turnout for the referendum. However, the lack of a formalised security apparatus, failure to address militias in the region, continued avoidance of dealing with disenfranchised groups, and an emerging desire for federalism has weakened the central government.  It is likely that the three regions of Libya will undergo more duress before they can achieve consensus enough to build a sustainable national system.