Regional Spillover of the US-Israel War on Iran: Implications for MENA Security

Key Judgements

• The US-Israeli campaign against Iran, launched on 28 February 2026, has triggered multi-front escalation across Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and the Red Sea corridor, fundamentally reshaping the MENA security environment.
• Iran’s proxy network has been operationalised for retaliatory strikes, but internal fractures and declining public support will likely erode cohesion; Hezbollah’s entry into the war has probably constituted its most damaging strategic miscalculation in decades.
• The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the probable resumption of Houthi Red Sea attacks will almost certainly compound a global energy crisis, with oil prices likely to remain elevated for 60 to 90 days even under a ceasefire scenario.

Objective

This report examines how the US-Israeli war on Iran (Operation Epic Fury) has cascaded across the MENA region in its first twelve days. It assesses the activation of Iran’s proxy network in Iraq and Lebanon, the fracturing of the Lebanese state’s relationship with Hezbollah, the risk of Houthi re-engagement, and the spillover into Syria’s post-Assad order.

Context

On 28 February 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei alongside Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour, and Defence Council secretary Ali Shamkhani. The campaign followed the collapse of Omani-mediated nuclear talks in Geneva on 26 February and came amid the largest anti-government protests in Iran since 1979, which had drawn a violent crackdown killing thousands across over 100 cities. Iran retaliated with over 500 ballistic missiles and nearly 2,000 drones aimed at Israel, US bases in Iraq, and facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. As of 11 March, over 1,300 civilians have been killed in Iran, 634 in Lebanon, 13 in Israel, and eight US service members. The IRGC attempted to mine the Strait of Hormuz before the US Navy destroyed 16 minelayers. Mojtaba Khamenei was elected Supreme Leader on 8 March, signalling hardliner continuity.

Timeline

28 Feb:  US-Israel launch strikes. Khamenei killed in Tehran. Kataib Hezbollah base at Jurf al-Sakhar (Babil province) struck. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz begins to be severely disrupted.

1 Mar:  Iran confirms Khamenei’s death. Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims 21 drone operations against US bases in Erbil. Hezbollah vows retaliation.

2 Mar:  Hezbollah fires rockets at Israel for first time since the November 2024 ceasefire. Israel responds with 250+ strikes across Lebanon. Lebanese PM Salam bans all Hezbollah military activities.

4–5 Mar:  Israel issues evacuation orders south of the Litani River. IDF enters Kfar Kila, Houla, Yaroun, and Khiam. Lebanon orders arrest and repatriation of IRGC Quds Force personnel. US strike kills Kataib Hezbollah commander Abu Hassan al-Fariji in Babil.

7–8 Mar:  Rocket attack on the US embassy in Baghdad. Mojtaba Khamenei elected Supreme Leader. IDF abducts four Syrian children from Quneitra.

10–11 Mar:  Over 760,000 displaced in Lebanon. Iran and Hezbollah conduct joint five-hour attack on 50+ Israeli targets. WHO warns of toxic “black rain.”

Analysis

Iraq as the unwilling frontline. The IRI has claimed over 200 attacks against US positions since 28 February, concentrated on the Kurdistan Region where remaining US forces are based. Unclaimed airstrikes, almost certainly by US or Israeli forces, have hit PMF facilities across Babil, Nineveh, Kirkuk, and Mosul. PM al-Sudani condemned the embassy attacks as “terrorist acts” but lacks the political capital to confront Iran-backed factions embedded in Iraq’s security architecture. If US strikes intensify, al-Sudani will likely face pressure to expel US forces from Kurdistan. If he fails to restrain the militias, Washington will probably expand its target set to PMF leadership, destabilising Iraq’s governing coalition.

Hezbollah’s isolation deepens. The Lebanese government’s ban on Hezbollah’s military activities and expulsion of IRGC advisers is unprecedented. Even Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri was reportedly furious, revealing that the group’s political wing had no control over its military wing and that the IRGC held decisive influence. Israel has exploited the escalation, issuing evacuation orders affecting 800,000+ people and expanding ground operations south of the Litani. The LAF has refused to deploy against Hezbollah while fighting continues, reflecting the risk of a sectarian fracture within its ranks. Lebanon has sought direct talks with Israel via US Ambassador to Türkiye Tom Barrack, but Washington has shown no interest in mediating. If the war continues, a full-scale Israeli ground invasion remains the most dangerous near-term scenario.

The Houthis: a calculated pause. Despite mass demonstrations in Sanaa and threats to resume Red Sea operations, the Houthis have not launched new maritime attacks. This restraint likely reflects internal debate over the risk of renewed US strikes on infrastructure in Hodeida, Hajjah, Sa’adah, and al-Jawf. However, missile launchers and radar have been repositioned along the Red Sea coast. Given the group’s record of calibrating attacks to political timing, the pause is probably strategic, not structural. Re-engagement would compound the Hormuz closure, with major carriers already suspending Suez transits.

Syria under pressure. Israel has expanded incursions into Quneitra and Daraa provinces, establishing checkpoints and detaining civilians. An Islamic Resistance Front in Syria has reportedly begun forming military cells with likely Iranian backing. If Iraqi militias transit Syrian territory toward the Golan, it would probably provoke Israeli strikes on Syrian government positions, collapsing the January security understandings and jeopardising the landmark SDF integration agreement reached in February.

What to watch. The next 30 days will likely be decisive. Iran’s declining missile launch rate suggests stock depletion, which will probably push Tehran toward a ceasefire through intermediaries, potentially Russia. The Houthi decision on Red Sea re-engagement will likely come within two weeks; continued abstention would signal strategic decoupling from Iran. In Lebanon, the government’s viability hinges on whether the LAF can enforce the Hezbollah ban without fracturing along sectarian lines. The broader pattern is a stress test of Iran’s Axis of Resistance: Hezbollah is isolated, Iraqi militias are drawing retaliatory strikes, and the Houthis are hedging. Failure to mount a coordinated response would likely accelerate fragmentation of Iranian influence across the region.