Egypt Update

Following two car bombing attacks on 11 September, the Egyptian government has redoubled its efforts to eradicate the terrorist elements in the Sinai Peninsula, and stem the flow of radical ideologies in Nile Valley Egypt.

On 11 September, a car bomb was detonated at the Egyptian Military intelligence headquarters in Rafah, on the border of the Gaza Strip in North Sinai, killing nine and wounded several. Reports indicate that the car bomb was detonated by a suicide bomber following an attack by rocket propelled grenades. The two story-building which housed the Sinai branch of military intelligence collapsed, burying an unspecified number of troops. Among the wounded were ten soldiers and seven civilians, three of which were women.

A second attack occurred at an army checkpoint near the intelligence headquarters, targeting an armoured personnel carrier. The remains of both suicide bombers have been recovered. An unnamed authority has described the remains of the attackers as having “darker skin, implying they may have been of African origin,” and adding that the explosives were complicated and unlikely to be made by Sinai-based terrorist groups. However, the Sinai-based militant group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis has claimed responsibility for the attacks in a statement posted on their website. The statement explains that the group had killed at least six soldiers and also claimed responsibility for the assassination attempt against Egypt’s interior minister last week in Cairo. The group vowed to conduct more attacks in revenge for the military operation against supporters of ousted president Mohamed Morsi on 14 August, and called on all Muslims in Egypt to stay away from military and interior ministry institutions.

Meanwhile, another militant group, Ansar Jerusalem, has claimed responsibility for three additional non-suicide attacks which targeted armoured vehicles with explosive devices. The group has also claimed attacks in the past on Israel, and has ties to militants in the Gaza Strip. In a two page statement, the group accused the Egyptian military of conducting a “dirty war, deputizing all anti-Islam forces in and outside Egypt, especially the Jews.”

Recent attacks have also included a thwarted attempt to detonate mortars on a railway between Suez and Ismailia, and the 19 August killing of 25 off-duty policemen who on their way home on leave from Sinai. The policemen were taken off of mini-buses and shot, with their hands tied behind their backs. The attacks have caused widespread outrage. Al-Nour party leader, Galal Murra, said in a press statement that all parties should work toward rescuing Sinai from a dark future. Members of the Dostor party vowed full support for military efforts to save Sinai from terrorism. Egypt’s top Sunni Islamic institution has called for an immediate move to provide security for the citizens and the state’s vital institutions, saying the government should “hit them with an iron hand to protect Sinai and Egyptian sovereignty.”

On 7 September, the Egyptian military began conducting offensive strikes in the Sinai. A spokesman for the military called it Egypt’s “largest military campaign against the terrorists in the Northern Sinai Peninsula” and vowed the operation would continue until the peninsula is “fully cleansed.” The offensive has unleashed helicopter gunships and tanks, as well as foot soldiers. The troops have targeted suspected militant hideouts and weapons caches, particularly in villages south of Rafah, and near Sheikh Zuweid. Authorities have also closed the Rafah border crossing to the Gaza Strip. War Colonel Ahmed Ali announced that since Saturday, the army has targeted 118 suspected terrorist bases, and destroyed three weapons caches and 33 vehicles with heavy guns placed on them. Officers have reported the capture of missile launchers and other weapons, as well as fuel storage sites. In the assault, dozens of militants have been killed and around 30 low- and mid-level operatives have been arrested.  One officer and two soldiers have been killed in the operation.

In previous, smaller sweeps, a significant number of foreign militants were detained, reinforcing the widely-held belief that since 2011, the Sinai has become a safe haven for militants from around the region to train and develop tactics for actions in the area. There are at least six known militant groups comprised of up to 5,000 members in Sinai. The vast desert and mountain region has rugged, harsh terrain, making it difficult to search. Many of the militants operating in Sinai are among those who escaped from Egyptian prisons during the 2011 uprisings, in which approximately 1,000 prisoners were set free.

The military assault has caused conflicting emotions among local residents. On the eve of the offensive, the Egyptian army deactivated all communication facilities in the region, including land line telephones, mobile phones and the internet. This loss of communication, coupled with accusations of military personnel targeting homes and arresting innocent people, has caused frustration. Officials targeted approximately 40 homes in the village of al-Mahdiya, seeking a wanted militant who is known to be in the area. While no one was killed in the search, villagers were “terrorised” by the destruction of property. Some fear that the military’s heavy-handed actions will result in open war with Bedouin tribes in the region; still others support the military efforts.

Ansar Jerusalem is attempting to use the unease to its advantage. In the 11 September statement, they declared that the military had killed civilians, set fire to homes, torched private cars, bombed mosques and stolen possessions, adding that Israeli drones were backing the offensive.

Meanwhile, in Nile Valley Egypt, Minister of Religious Endowments, Mohammad Mokhtar Gomaa has barred nearly 55,000 unlicensed clerics throughout Egypt from preaching in mosques. Gomaa explained that the clerics lack licenses to preach, and are considered a fundamentalist threat to Egypt’s security. The ban will target unlicensed mosques and random praying areas in hopes of delivering moderate messages and preventing radicalised ideologies from affecting the nation.

Finally, Egyptian Minister of Civil Aviation, Abdel Aziz Fadel, has released a press release reassuring that Cairo International Airport is safe following a tip of a possible bomb attack on the plane from Cairo to London on 7 September. An anonymous caller reported to state security that two passengers on the EgyptAir flight were suicide-bombers. The flight’s passengers were de-boarded and searched, and luggage was taken off the plane to be checked by sniffer dogs.

Fadel states that the Cairo airport, as well as those in Sharm el-Sheikh and Borg el-Arab, is equipped with sophisticated equipment to detect explosives, and identify the content of passengers’ luggage, and has a staff of efficient security forces from the Ministry of Interior. The equipment will soon be provided to Hurghada airport as well.

Tagged as: Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, Cairo, Egypt, Gaza Strip, Ismailia, Nile Valley, North Sinai, Rafah, Sinai Peninsula, Suez

Update on the Suez Canal, Egypt

In continuing efforts to maintain the protection of the Suez Canal Zone, Egyptian authorities issued unprecedented increases to security. Egyptian armed forces have erected checkpoint every 20 kilometres, and have deployed army helicopters to monitor the Canal Zone. In addition, there are increased mobile security patrols, and the military has installed more security cameras in and around the waterway. The government has also been working with local tribes in the Sinai Peninsula to ensure cooperation in the region’s security.

Analysts surmise that hitting and sinking a vessel in the Canal Zone would be extremely difficult; such an endeavour would require a suicide boat attack, floating mines, or missiles. While the former two options would be almost inconceivable to get through Suez security, the option that remains is to build a small battery in a deserted area, capable of delivering a missile to attack a ship. However, the development of such a system would likely be detected by electronic or satellite surveillance, or one of the many military battalions stationed in the Suez region.

Experts have ensured that Egyptian authorities were fully capable of securing the Suez Canal and preventing potential terrorist attacks, however there is the possibility of “minor” limited attacks in the near future. Military expert Ahmed Ragae said, “I expect to see limited and ineffective attacks that aim only to raise doubts about the canal among western countries.”

Western countries are already keeping a close eye on the turmoil in Egypt. Earlier today in Nile Valley Egypt, a car bomb targeted the convoy of Egypt’s Interior Minister Mohammed Ibrahim in a suspected assassination attempt. The bomb did not harm Ibrahim; however, as many as 10 people have been injured in the blast. The bombing occurred in Nasr City near the home of the Minister, and in a stronghold region of the Muslim Brotherhood. No party has claimed responsibility for the attack. Egyptian police have reportedly killed two of the attackers.

Ibrahim is the head of the country’s police force, which worked with other security forces to clear out two Muslim Brotherhood protest camps last month, resulting in a deadly crackdown that left hundreds dead and thousands injured. The protesters are seeking the return of deposed president Mohamed Morsi, who was removed from office on 3 July.

MENA Update

Algeria

Algeria builds military zone along Tunisian Border

9 June 2013- Algeria has made plans to build 20 military zones along the Algerian-Tunisian border to minimize terrorist infiltration and arms smuggling. The move comes after success following similar efforts along the Libyan and Malian borders. The military zones are off-limits to civilians without a permit.  In mid-May, Algerian military leadership began implementations of plans to protect over 80 border crossing points, covering 956 kilometres. Algerian-Tunisian Security agreements include military cooperation and exchanges of information, and well as tracking of suspects and mutually aiding in investigations related to “Jihadist” networks.

Bouteflika Suffered Full Stroke

13 June 2013- A statement released by the Algerian government admits that President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika suffered a full stroke, rather than the “mini-stroke” that was officially reported. Bouteflika suffered the event on 27 April and was immediately flown to France for treatment at Val de Grace Hospital. In early June, he was relocated for recuperation. Algerian Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal and Army Chief of Staff, General Gaid Salah have visited Bouteflika, and report he is in good condition. The Algerian president gave orders to ensure that markets have adequate food supplies as the month of Ramadan approaches in three weeks time. A portion of the meeting was released on Algerian national television in order to show that Bouteflika is improving, in hopes of quelling growing rumours that the president was in grave condition. Despite the images of Bouteflika’s improving condition, speculation is increasing that he will not run for election in April of 2014.

Bahrain

44 Terror Suspects arrested

13 June 2013- The Bahraini Interior Ministry announced the arrest of forty-four suspects, including two women, for committing terrorist activities in Bahrain. The investigation led to the identification of members and leaders of the terrorist group, the February 14^th organization, as well as the “Al Imam Army”, which has trained others in the use of weapons and explosives with the aim of disrupting security and endangering lives.

The arrested individuals are suspected of a list of charges including: conspiring to plant a bomb during the recent Formula One race, blowing up ATMs, conducting arson attacks on car showrooms, and placing explosives around Manama, which have resulted in the deaths of two Asian expats. Three were arrested for using a homemade bomb planted in a car near the Bahrain Financial Harbour.

The February 14 organisation was created following incidents stemming from the uprising in Bahrain in February 2011. The Bahraini Interior Ministry have also named the cell’s masterminds in Bahrain and in London. The masterminds are known to frequently travel between Iran, Iraq and Lebanon to obtain financial and moral support.

Egypt

Nationwide Protests Scheduled for 30 June; Interior Ministry Closes Routes between Sinai and Mainland

18 June 2013- Egypt’s Interior Minister has announced the closing of tunnels and ferries across the Suez Canal and the halt of any traffic between the Sinai Peninsula and mainland Egypt ahead of the upcoming anti-government protests on 30 June. The move is an effort to prevent the crossing of militants into the mainland of Egypt.

Nationwide protests against president Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood are expected across Egypt on 30 June, the anniversary of his first year in power. Opposition groups have joined together to call for his removal.

Interior Minister Mohamed Ibrahim is specifically concerned with the possible invasion of prisons and subsequent release of prisoners, which has occurred several times during protests since the ousting of former president Hosni Mubarak in 2011. Ibrahim is also concerned with securing Itihadiya Palace, where the president resides, and pre-empting clashes between supporters and opposition to President Morsi.

Security forces will also be deployed to the Egyptian Media Production City on the outskirts of Cairo, however national security services will not be provided to offices of any political parties.

Opponents of President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood come from both liberal and secular movements, and believe that the 30 June protests are the last opportunity to drive him from power. Public discontent is widespread, ranging from concerns over failed infrastructure, food shortages, high prices and lack of security. One protest campaign has started a petition drive called “Tamarod” (Translation: “Rebels”) which has collected over 15 million signatures calling for Morsi to step down and early elections to be held.

Many of Morsi’s backers are planning counter-protests, calling the planned demonstrations an attempt to overturn democracy. A senior Brotherhood leader has stated that the protests are not actually backed by genuine popular support, and believes that the Tamarod signatures are forged. Some hard-line clerics have also issued fatwas, calling organizers and participants in the protests “kuffar,” or non-believers, who deserve to be killed.

Egyptian police, who have been angry with Morsi’s administration for being treated like a “tool of the political party”, have intoned that they wish to stay out of the conflict. The Egyptian military has not voiced an opinion, but has been visibly at odds with the ruling party.

Morsi names ex-militant as governor of Luxor

17 June 2013- Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has appointed Adel el-Khayat as the new governor of the ancient city of Luxor, raising anger among Egyptian tourism workers and residents. El-Khayat is a member of the political arm of ex-Islamic militant group Gamaa Islamiya. In 1992, the group staged an insurgency against the state, attacking police, tourists, and Coptic Christians. In 1997, Gamaa Islamiya claimed responsibility for what became known as the “Luxor Massacre”, when 58 tourists and four Egyptians were killed at the 3,400 year old Temple of Hatshepsut outside Luxor. In the 2000s, Gamaa Islamiya renounced violence and in 2011, the group turned to politics, aligning themselves closely with Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood. Leaders of the organization have threatened an “Islamic revolution” if liberals try to unseat the Islamist president.

Workers and political opposition to the appointment have planned to seal off the governor’s office to prevent Adel el-Khayat from entering. Tourism workers fear that el-Khayat’s ties to the former militant group and his hard-line Islamist stance will deter tourists, which are the lifeblood of the region.

El-Khayat’s appointment is one of several new appointments for provincial governor positions. On 16 June, Morsi made seventeen appointments, including eight from his party, the Muslim Brotherhood. The appointments mean that the Brotherhood controls 10 of Egypt’s 27 provinces. Nine additional provinces are still run by military and police, stemming from the Mubarak era.

Iran

Hassan Rouhani wins Iranian election, replaces Ahmadinejad

14 June 2013- In a relatively calm election process, Hassan Rouhani has won the Iranian elections, and will be replacing outgoing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Rouhani was a participant in the Islamic Revolution of the 1970s and was linked to Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic republic. Rouhani was the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council for 16 years, and the nation’s chief nuclear negotiator from 2003 to 2005. Rouhani won just over 50% of the vote, and called his election a “victory of moderation over extremism.” After his victory was announced, Iranians took to the streets in tens of thousands, wearing purple, the colour of Rouhani’s election campaign.

Rouhani’s election brings a shift in Iran’s power structure, as he ushers in a mix of both conservative and moderate beliefs. As the former chief nuclear negotiator, Rouhani is supportive of Iran’s nuclear agenda, pledging in the run-up to elections to try to ease international sanctions imposed over Iran’s nuclear programme. His dealings with the West are expected to be significantly different from those of Ahmadinejad, whose brand of ultimatums and threats increased tensions with the West, resulting in heavy sanctions and economic strain for Iran. Rouhani is expected to take a more pragmatic tact in dealing with both foreign and domestic powers.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintains that Iran’s nuclear program should be stopped “by any means.” He added, “The international community should not fall into wishful thinking and be tempted to ease pressure on Iran to stop its nuclear programme.” Israeli President Shimon Peres is more hopeful, believing that Rouhani will not go toward extreme policies.

Although Israel will still consider military action if Iran continues its nuclear program, Western powers have indicated that they are willing to engage with Rouhani, providing he lives up to his obligations under the UN security council resolutions.

Rouhani has already begun discussions on his cabinet with Ali Larijani, speaker for Iran’s parliament. The Iranian Parliament must approve his selections when he takes office in August. 

Iraq

Suicide Bombers Target Mosque; 24 dead, 52 wounded

17 June, 2013- Two suicide bombers blew themselves up inside and near a Shiite mosque in Baghdad, killing 24 people and wounding 52. The bombing is the latest in a string of escalating sectarian violence over recent months. Since April 2013, nearly 2,000 have been killed, including over 220 in June.

The first bomb was detonated at a security checkpoint near a mosque in Baghdad’s Qahira district, a predominantly middle class, Shiite-majority neighbourhood. It is believed the first bombing was an attempt to distract the authorities as a second bomber went into the mosque and blew himself up while worshippers were performing midday prayers.

While no party has claimed responsibility yet, al Qaeda’s Iraqi division has conducted suicide bombings and attacks against Shiite citizens frequently.

On 16 June, 51 people were killed in coordinated bombings. On Monday, fifteen people were killed in bomb attacks, including deaths caused by a suicide bomber who set off his explosives among a group of policemen in Fallujah.

Bombings kill 13 ahead of vote

19 June, 2013– A provincial party leader and four of his relatives were killed in a suicide bombing attack in northern Iraq. Yunus al-Ramah, the leader of the United Iraq party, was hosting an event at his home in Al-Hadhr when a suicide bomber targeted people gathering in his garden. The attack happened just days before local elections are to be held on Thursday in Sunni-majority Nineveh and Anbar provinces, where polls had been delayed since 20 April due to security concerns. Ramah was not running in the upcoming election, although several members of his party are.

Later in the evening, back-to-back roadside bombs killed eight youths and wounded 25 near a football pitch in Muqdadiyah.

No group has claimed responsibility for the attack; however Sunni militants linked to Al-Qaeda previously attempted to intimidate candidates in order to derail elections in majority Sunni provinces.  Analysts believe that Shiite-led authorities are not exerting enough effort to address the underlying causes of the demonstrations. This lack of action has given militant groups opportunities to carry out terrorist tactics.

Libya

Libyan Judge Assassinated; Clashes in Benghazi

17 June, 2013- Unidentified militants have assassinated Judge Mohammed Naguib in a drive-by shooting in front of a courthouse. Naguib was a senior Libyan judge in the eastern city of Derna, which is a known stronghold of Islamic militants, including Ansar al-Shariah, the group suspected of involvement in the September 11 attacks on the US mission in Benghazi.

In Benghazi, Libya’s General National Congress has postponed the vote on a new president following another round of clashes in Benghazi, which erupted in the early hours of 15 June near the city centre. Libyan Special Forces battled gunmen, resulting in six soldiers dead and several injured. An explosion also occurred at the headquarters of the National Oil Corporation. Authorities are working to identify perpetrators of the pre-dawn assault, through license plates and photographs. One group has been identified; investigations are on-going.

Some Libyan activists believe that the national congress lost credibility by adopting the political isolation law at gunpoint and that the government was now losing its credibility as well, as “the state has failed Benghazi.” Locals say the city has become a place to settle accounts, and call on the government to come and conduct affairs in the city. One witness stated, “If Benghazi does not settle down, then Libya will not settle down. The state must meet its responsibilities.”

Qatar

US- Taliban Talks Cancelled in Doha

20 June, 13- Talks scheduled for Thursday between US officials and Afghan Taliban representatives in Doha have been cancelled due to the Afghan government’s anger at the opening of a Taliban office in Qatar.

The opening of the Taliban office was intended to be a step toward paving the way for peace talks, however, protesters in Kabul argued that the office would develop into a Taliban government-in-exile. US Secretary of State, John Kerry, has been in talks with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who accused the Obama administration of duplicity. Karzai was particularly infuriated by Taliban officials displaying white Taliban Flag and referring to the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan”, and suspended talks on a long-term security deal to keep US troops in Afghanistan after NATO leaves in 2014. The US has asked the Qatari government to remove the sign outside the new office in Doha that claims to represent the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan”.

Though the office in Doha is meant only as a base for talks rather than a political platform, Karzai felt the Tuesday press conference was a violation of that agreement. Further, the Afghan government prefers the US to refrain from broad negotiations with the Taliban. Although Washington agrees that the process must be Afghan-led the delegates want to discuss issues including renouncing violence, links with al-Qaida and women’s rights in the country.

On Wednesday, the US suspended plans to attend the talks. Meanwhile, the Taliban also claimed responsibility for a rocket attack on the Bagram air base that killed four Americans on the same day that the tentative deal about talks was announced.

Yemen

Yemen market suicide bomber kills two

A suicide bomber has struck a market in the north Yemen town of Saada, about 80 miles north of Sanaa. The bomber detonated a bomb-laden motorbike in the town, killing himself and at least two civilians, and injuring eight.

Saada is a mainly Shia city in the north of majority Sunni Yemen. The town has been controlled by the Houthi Shia rebels for years. Fighting between the rebels and government forces had killed thousands of people over the course of a decade, until a truce was agreed upon in 2010. The rebels are involved in a national dialogue, however tensions have recently escalated as the Sunni-dominated government makes claims that the Houthi are backed by mainly Shia Iran. The rebels, who are also in conflict with AQAP, feel they are politically and socially marginalised.

Understanding Sinai: Smuggling and Radicalism in the Sinai Peninsula

Since the ouster of Hosni Mubarak in 2011, the Sinai Peninsula has become a hotbed of radicalized activity. Many indigenous Bedouin, who have long been disenchanted by the Egyptian government, have turned to smuggling as a lucrative financial endeavor. The system of tunnels, created to transport illicit goods, have also served as for radicalized individuals and groups to enter the region. The desert terrain, largely uninhabited, provides hidden shelter among road-less paths and desert caves.  This combination results in a prime opportunity for mujahedeen to build bases from which to carry out organized crimes and terrorist activities throughout the Maghreb and into the Sahel regions.

Impact of Bedouin Disenfranchisement

Since ancient times, the Egyptian Sinai has been home to several nomadic Bedouin tribes. During the Six-Day war in 1967, Israel took control of the Sinai Peninsula, providing job opportunities for Bedouin, particularly in the tourist industry.  The Bedouin had become accustomed to a cash economy and material wealth during Israeli occupation. Following the end of the occupation in 1982, the Cairo-based government perceived the Bedouin as collaborators with the Israel to destabilize Egypt. Consequently, the Bedouin have been perceived as second-class citizens, facing human rights hardships and severe economic blows.

Twenty percent of Bedouin in the Sinai are denied Egyptian citizenship. They cannot join the police or military, or study in police or military universities. Bedouin tribesmen cannot hold government positions or form political parties, nor can they own land, for fear they would re-sell it to Israelis. Employment opportunities in the Sinai are preferentially given to non-Bedouin Egyptians, and corporate developments have created boundaries that impact the nomadic tribes’ ability to travel throughout their historic territories. Finally, Bedouin tribesmen are often blamed for violence in the region, held without cause or evidence by Egyptian Police. These factors generate great animosity against the Egyptian government; outcries have been met with meager financial assistance and empty promises.

In order to retain wealth and material goods, members of some tribes have turned smuggling as a lucrative opportunity to generate income. Since the 1990s, smuggling rings have expanded to include items of higher value, including drugs, weapons, cars, and people (kidnap for ransom). Concurrently, Bedouin traffickers have enlarged their networks, with weaponry becoming the new expression of wealth.

Smuggling in the Sinai

It is important to note that not all members of tribes have resorted to smuggling, rather, certain members of specific tribes. The dominant tribes involved in smuggling on the Sinai Peninsula are the Sawarka, Tihaya, and Tarabin tribes, which have traditional boundaries bordering Israel and/or the Gaza Strip. Connections also exist between Bedouin Rashaida of Eritrea and Sudan, who predominantly engage in human trafficking, and the Tuareg tribes of Libya, who transfer weaponry throughout the Maghreb. Bedouin tribes do not have a sense of national loyalty—only to tribe— nor do they ascribe to an ideology that prevents them from dealing with particular groups, even if they are deemed dangerous or radical, as long as they can afford the price. Daniel Kurtzer, former US Ambassador to Egypt and Israel wrote, “…terrorists, both from Gaza and reportedly al-Qaeda, have used the territory to smuggle arms and plan operations.”

Heading west, tribes transfer goods and materials through the Maghreb and Sahel Regions, taking advantage of porous borders and lax security. From the south, tribes use a system that goes from Kassala, Sudan to the Egyptian border, then north into Sinai. Toward the east, Bedouin smugglers use an intricate system of tunnels to deliver materials through Gaza and beyond. At Sinai’s eastern border, commonly used routes are the Heth and Philadelphi routes, which go between Gaza from Sinai. Tunnel systems that are known by Egyptian and Israeli law enforcement have been bombed or flooded. However, to keep their trading systems open, tribesmen will pay up to $100,000 for the creation of new tunnels.

In addition to smuggling, some tribesmen charge for extensive knowledge of safe and desolated areas within the Peninsula, where smugglers or radicals entering the region can hide while fleeing from law enforcement.

Hideout for Radicalized Groups

Increased lawlessness in the Sinai results directly from the 2011 Egyptian Revolution. Bedouins were among the first to ignore national curfews, and rising vehemently against Egyptian police. In February 2011, the police left the Sinai Peninsula, and returned in August 2011 with limited presence. In that time, Al Qaeda inspired militants penetrated the region, and continue to increase presence. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the militant faction of Hamas, as well as Al Qaeda inspired networks, are known to be operating quasi-military training camps in the Sinai. Due to this threat, the Egyptian Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) received permission to send 3,500 military troops into the demilitarized zone, yet the small number of troops is unable to secure the vast, unfamiliar region.

Increased Radical Activity

This week, Egypt’s interior ministry told police in the Sinai Peninsula to raise a state of emergency, after obtaining intelligence that jihadist fighters might attack their forces. Last August, fifteen Egyptian policemen were killed in an assault on a police station bordering Egypt and Israel. The militants seized two military vehicles and attempted to storm the border.

In early January, Egyptian authorities issued a security alert for the Sinai as intelligence services received information about potential attacks by extremist groups in the Sinai. On 15 February, the authorities announced the seizure of two tons of explosives headed to the Sinai from Cairo, followed by the discovery of a weapons cache in Al-Arish two days later. The seized weapons include 21 anti-aircraft shells, six anti-tank mines and an anti-aircraft gun. The same day, one ton of explosives was found in a car headed from Cairo toward the Sinai. On 27 February, Egyptian security forces confiscated 60 antitank missiles south of Cairo that were being transported in two pickup trucks from Libya. And on 5 March, a cache of weaponry, including antitank mines, was seized in el Arish

Egyptian President Mohamed Mosri has pledged to get a grip on security in Egypt but as he struggles to assert control over an entrenched security establishment, this appears to be another empty promise. Morsi administration and Egyptian security forces are hindered by several factors, including poor resources and coordination, and conflicting views on counter-smuggling and counterterrorism strategies. A failure to cultivate Bedouin allegiance and intelligence will also decrease Egyptian security forces ability to identify lairs of suspected jihadists.

Update on MENA (22 January 2013)

Egypt – On Sunday, Egyptian authorities seized one ton of explosives that were in route to the Sinai Peninsula. The driver of the truck has been detained, along with the 50 crates of explosives. Egyptian officials are concerned that militants from Algeria and Libya are now operating in the Sinai Peninsula.

In recent weeks, Egyptian authorities have seized a number of weapons, including short range rockets, anti-craft and anti-take missiles believed to be destined for the Gaza Strip.

On 10 January, Egyptian security forces arrested four people in the Matrouh province bordering Libya for attempting to smuggle arms to the Sinai Peninsula. Security forces found in the vehicles 2,084 rounds for anti-aircraft guns, 15 rocket-propelled grenades, 12 RPG launchers, and 12 TNT charges.

The smuggling of weapons has been prevalent since the 2011 Libyan Revolution. Officials estimated that during the revolution, approximately 20,000 missiles went missing from Libya’s weapons cache, while at the same time an influx of missiles appeared on the Sinai black market.

Lawlessness in the Sinai resulting from the 2011 Egyptian Revolution generated a sharp increase in radical activities and militant groups seeking covert training grounds. Since June 2011, radicalized foreigners have been known to be present in the region; however, in recent weeks officials have increasingly noted the existence of foreigners among the jihadist groups, estimating several hundred, many of whom are from Yemen and Somalia, operating in the Sinai.

Egyptian authorities issued a security alert for the Sinai as intelligence services received information about potential attacks by extremist groups in the Sinai. Egyptian authorities are worried that Islamist militants in the Sinai may soon resume attacks in response to statements by the Egyptian army proclaiming that it will not stop its operations or negotiate with militants.

Egypt Travel Advice:

The UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) advise against all travel to the Governorate of North Sinai due to the significant increase in criminal activity. The FCO also advises against all but essential travel to the Governorate of South Sinai, with the exception of Red Sea Resorts including those in the entire region of Sharm el Sheikh, Taba, Nuweiba and Dahab; road travel between these resorts; and transfers between the resorts and the airports of Taba and Sharm el Sheikh. Although security is tight throughout the country, especially in resort areas, there is a high threat from terrorism, and there remains a high risk of attacks which could be indiscriminate, including in public places frequented by foreigners. Following French military intervention in Mali, there is a possibility of retaliatory attacks targeting Western interests in the region. Avoid all demonstrations and large gatherings.

“We do not accept at all the military intervention in Mali because it will fuel conflict in the region,” Morsi said.

Morsi’s comments may increase tension between Egypt and France ahead of his visit to Paris on 1 February. Other members of the international community have distanced themselves from the Morsi’s position, offering their support to France.

Morsi’s statement came as Malian and French troops appeared to have recaptured the central towns Diabaly and Douentza from Islamist militants, halting their advance towards the south.

Libya – Weapons looted from Libya were among the arms that militants used to attack Ain Amenas gas facility in Algeria, according to Algerian officials and weapons experts. Assault rifles and hand-held rocket launchers used in the assault came from stockpiles that were looted by Libyan militias and arms traffickers in the chaos following Gadhafi’s overthrow in 2011.

Post-revolution Libya is struggling to transform itself into a faltering democracy, yet it has been deemed an “ammunition supermarket” for al Qaeda-linked militants in the North African deserts linking Libya, Chad, Niger, Algeria and Mali.

Algerian officials have vocalized concern about hundreds of miles of largely unguarded border with Libya. These borders have been frought with arms traffickers and criminal smugglers since the fall of Gadhafi. Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zidan declared the border a closed military zone in December 2012, and this month he met with his Algerian counterpart to work in an effort to increase border surveillance.

A US official sees the weapons transactions as a force multiplier that empowered rebels in Mali and “tipped the balance”. In November 2011, members of AQIM told African journalists that weapons from Libya would give them an advantage in their insurgencies.

Further complicating matters, security concerns are shifting to Libya following the hostage crisis at Ain Amenas gas plant in Algeria, as porous borders and unreliable armed forces leave the oil and gas industry vulnerable. Analysts suggest that while the Algerian government will be able to step-up security and contain threats to their oil and gas complexes, similar attacks are likely in other countries which support French actions in Mali. The most vulnerable of these is Libya, which is just beginning to reach pre-revolution oil output of 1.6 million barrels per day. Libya is still in the process of reassembling security forces.

Libya Travel Advice:

The UK FCO advises against all but essential travel to Tripoli, Zuwara, Az Zawiya, al Khums, Zlitan and Misrata, and the coastal towns from Ras Lanuf to the Egyptian Border, with the exception of Benghazi. The FCO also advises against all travel to all other areas of Libya, including Benghazi. There is a high threat of terrorism, including indiscriminate attacks in places frequented by expatriates and foreign travellers. There is also a threat of retaliatory attacks following French intervention in Mali, as well as a threat of kidnapping. Avoid any demonstrations or large gatherings of people, and be weary that violent clashes between armed groups are possible across the country, particularly at night.