MS Risk Blog

The Middle East’s Thriving Illegal Organ Trade

“I exploit people, that’s what I do… Some of my clients would have died anyway.”

Trade in illegal organs is a booming business in Lebanon as desperate Syrian refugees resort to selling body parts to support themselves and their families, according to a report by the BBC. A trafficker who brokers deals from a coffee shop in Beirut, identified as Abu Jaafar, said while he knew his business was illegal, he saw it as helping people in need.

Since the Syrian conflict began in 2011, at least 1.5 million people have moved to Lebanon, where they make up around a quarter of the country’s population. Many have no legal right to work and families are forced to find other ways to pay for food, shelter and healthcare. According to a report published in June, some 70 percent of refugees in Lebanon are living below the poverty line.

“Those who are not registered as refuges are struggling,” Jaafar said, “what can they do? They are desperate and have no other means to survive but to sell their organs.” Jaafar said in the last three years he has arranged the sale of organs from some 30 refugees. “They usually ask for kidneys, yet I can still find and facilitate other organs,” he said. “They once asked me for an eye, and I was able to acquire a client willing to sell his eye.”

The Middle East is becoming a hotspot in international organ trade, where the influx of refugees desperate to earn money is providing a new market for brokers, shifting focus from China and the Philippines, according to the BBC report. Most refugees aren’t allowed to work under Lebanese law, and many families barely get by. Among the most desperate are Palestinians who were already considered refugees in Syria, and so are not eligible to be re-registered by the UN refugee agency when they arrive in Lebanon. They live in overcrowded camps and receive very little aid.

Across the Middle East there’s a shortage of organs for transplant, because of cultural and religious objections to organ donation. Most families prefer immediate burial.

A similar story came to light from Iraq in 2016.

According to a different BBC report, gangs in the country are offering up to $10,000 US for a kidney, and have been increasingly targeted the country’s poor. Almost a quarter of the country’s population live in abject poverty – according to World Bank statistics – and some destitute families are actively seeking out organ traders.

“The phenomenon is so widespread that authorities are not capable of fighting it,” Firas al-Bayati, a human rights lawyer, told the BBC. “I have personally dealt over the past three months with 12 people who were arrested for selling their kidneys. And poverty was the reason behind their acts.”

Under Iraqi law only relatives are allowed to donate organs their organs to one and other. The trafficking of organs is strictly prohibited, with penalties ranging from three years in prison to death.

In January 2017, it was revealed that IS has been recruiting foreign doctors to harvest the internal organs from their own dead fighters and living hostages, including children abducted from minority populations in Syria and Iraq. The organs are then sold on the black market in the worldwide human organ trafficking trade in order to fund their terror operations.

Threat Assessment on Venezuela

Context

Since the arrival of Hugo Chávez to power in 1998, and after 13 years of economic and political reorganization of the country according to his “Bolivarian Revolution”, Venezuela has widely depended on oil revenue, which represented the 93 percent of the country’s exports in 2008, and generated an income between $90 and $100 billion, which helped Chavez with its social projects and the large share of imports.

The global economic crisis hit Venezuela strongly due to the drop in oil prices, altering the Venezuelan trade balance. The economic difficulties Venezuela has been facing since then, with a 475 percent inflation and a 10 percent fall in its GDP for 2016, have led to the current situation of shortage of basic commodities for the population, and political and social crisis affecting the country.

Far from self-criticism, Nicolás Maduro accuses the opposition and citizens who demonstrate against its government of the situation and of being part of an international plot to overthrow him. This has led to the polarization of the Venezuelan society in two blocs, Chavez’s supporters or pro-government seeking to perpetuate the spirit of Chavez’s “Bolivarian Revolution”, and opposition groups, that blame the government of the disastrous economic situation and seek to dismiss Maduro.

The situation has become critical recently, since the opposition appears more united than ever and has received more support from the international community and the citizenship, which gave them the absolute majority in the National Assembly in the past elections, and tries to relieve Maduro from power. Maduro has responded authoritatively delaying regional elections and even dismantling the National Assembly’s powers. The opposition and the population, tired of the growing situation of poverty, take the streets constantly demanding the resignation of the president, who accuses them of coup and responds with brute force by the police, the army and even pro-government paramilitary armed groups, provoking clashes that have caused 28 dead in April.

Objective 

The objective of this analysis is to glimpse the way in which the situation in Venezuela might evolve in the coming months. For that purpose, different scenarios will be generated using the cone of plausibility method according to the key indicators of the Venezuelan crisis, which are: economy, popular support and mobilization, military support, pro-government political forces unity, opposition unity and international influence.

Baseline scenario

Low oil prices are still devastating the Venezuelan economy, which is unable to provide commodities to the people, which demands, along with the opposition groups, the resignation of Nicolás Maduro for his handling of the crisis. The president, supported by the ruling party and the military, refuses to resign and accuses the opposition of coup attempt, which translates into strong repression of the demonstrations that causes casualties; meanwhile, the government is criticized by the international community, and tries to find an exit to the economic situation the country is facing.

Plausible Scenario 1

The discontent of the population, which starts to live in poverty conditions ever seen in Venezuela, has grown at an astonishing rate and has shown the little support Maduro has in the streets. Considering the popular discontent, the army begins to show itself increasingly neutral in the situation and, although it promises to maintain peace, it does not swear loyalty to the president. At the same time, members of the ruling party have created a current that seeks the internal overthrown of Maduro to save the image of the party for future elections.

Plausible Scenario 2

The implementation of negotiations between the government and the opposition, made the parties conforming the opposition to dissent around the demands they should ask the president. While some were clamouring for his resignation, others accepted other gestures such as the call for regional elections. The opposition’s division led to a demobilization of the population, which showed distrust to the parties asking only for the dismissal of Maduro at all costs. The social situation remains tense, but stable and contained, while the government has obtained more time to improve the economic situation at the expense of some regional governments that have fallen into the hands of opposition groups.

Plausible Scenario 3

The aggravated situation of poverty, because of a government that still does not know how to alleviate the economic crisis, has led to larger protests on the streets and has reduced popular support of president Nicolás Maduro. The president, who has the loyalty of the military and the ruling party, hardest repressed protests, increasing the number of dead to hundreds. Violent clashes and the refusal of the president to call for elections have led certain opposition groups and population to face the police and military by armed means. The government foresees an escalation of the situation after losing certain localities at the hand of such groups, which declared themselves free from central government’s control. The international community is already talking about civil war and the situation is being taken to the Security Council, with Venezuelan traditional allies, such as Russia, considering its neutrality on passing sanctions against the Caribbean country.

Wildcard Scenario

Social protests rise and president Maduro’s immobility led a sector of the army to question its generals and prepared a coup that overthrew pro-government commands. Straightaway, they ousted Maduro from power and maintain the status quo in the streets because of the strong protests of Maduro supporters and pro-government paramilitary forces. New commanders of the army have instituted the state of emergency until further notice.

After 6 Years, US Troops End Search for Kony

US Special Forces announced on 26 April that they will being pulling out of the Central African Republic (CAR), where they deployed in 2011 in a bid to hunt the brutal Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) warlord Joseph Kony. The move, which was first announced in March, will se US troops pulling out of the country’s eastern region, where they have been helping Ugandan forces track down rebels from the feared LRA.

During a telephone briefing in mid-April, General Thomas Waldhauser, head of the US military’s Africa Command (AFRICOM), disclosed that “the time has come to move forward because the organization itself is really in a survival mode.”

In 2010, the US passed a law to deploy around 100 Special Forces to work with regional armies in hunting down Kony. While it is withdrawing, despite the rebel leader remaining at large, Kony’s power has much diminished. His current whereabouts remain unknown but his forces have been hit by a constant stream of defections, deaths and surrenders of both foot-soldiers and commanders. Small LRA groups continue to carry out attacks, mostly on villages in the border regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), CAR, South Sudan and Sudan.

Joseph Kony

For the past three decades, rebel commander Kony has sowed terror across four African countries, evading capture by US and Ugandan soldiers. The former Catholic altar boy became one of Africa’s most notorious rebels at the head of his LRA, combining religious mysticism with an astute guerrilla mind and bloodthirsty ruthlessness.

A member of Uganda’s northern Acholi ethnic group, Kony attended primary school before taking up arms in and around 1987. He would follow in the footsteps of another rebel, Alice Auma Lakwena, a former prostitute who is believed to have been either his cousin or aunt. Lakwena, who died in exile in Kenya in early 2007, believed that she could channel the spirits of the dead. She also told her followers that the holy oil she gave them could stop bullets.

Kony has claimed that the Holy Spirit has issued orders to him on everything from military tactics to personal hygiene, terrifying his subordinates into obedience.

Kony’s insurgency claimed to be fighting to overthrow the Ugandan government and impose a regime based on the Bible’s Ten Commandments. He claims that it was launched to defend the Acholi people against Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, who seized power from northern military rulers at the head of a rebel army in 1986. The insurgency has killed more than 100,000 people and abducted 60,000 children who were forced to become sex slaves, soldiers and porters. Despite widespread northern resentment against President Museveni, Kony’s policy of abductions soon lost him the support of local groups, who suffered during the government’s brutal war against the LRA. While Kony, who is thought to be in his 50s, has said that he has not committed any atrocities, ex-LRA abductees say that they were forced to maim and kill friends, neighbours and relatives and participate in gruesome rites such as drinking their victims’ blood.

During the 1990s, the LRA conflict split into neighbouring countries after the Sudanese government in Khartoum began backing the group in retaliation for Uganda’s support of southern Sudanese rebels battling for independence. When Sudan signed a peace deal with the southern rebels in 2005, support for the LRA effectively dried up, after and after being force into the neighbouring DRC by the Ugandan army, Kony agreed to peace talks. In 2005, the self-proclaimed prophet, and four of his deputies, were the first people to be indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague for war crimes and crimes against humanity. This move however impacted attempts to reach a peace agreement. Negotiations dragged on and, amidst mutual distrust and anxiety over the ICC warrant, Kony repeatedly failed to turn up to sign the deal. Since the 2005 indictment, only one commander, Dominic Ongwen, is currently on trial while the three others are believed to have been killed.

In late 2011, following growing pressure from US campaigners, President Barack Obama deployed US Special Forces troops to help regional armies track down Kony. While in March the following year, Kony surged to unexpected worldwide prominence as a result of a hugely popular Internet video, the Kony2012 film, which called for his capture, popular interest quickly waned and despite the increased pressure, after more than thirty years in the bush, Kony remain a master of evasion. He has ditched satellite telephones in favor of runners to communicate and has lived off wild roots and animals.

Two Years and No End in Sight to Burundi’s Political Crisis

Two years after Burundian President Pierre Nkurunziza plunged the country into turmoil, the regime shows no sights of easing up on a crackdown, which has forced hundreds of thousands to flee. In April 2015, President Nkurunziza sought a third term in office, effectively politically destabilizing the country in a move that continues to be felt today, both within and regionally. His move not only violated the country’s two term-limit, as set by the constitution, but it also violated a 2006 peace deal, which ended a dozen years of civil war. At the time, he claimed that his first term in office did not count as he was appointed after the war and not directly elected. More recently, he has suggested a possible change to Burundi’s constitution, which would let him run again in 2020.

During this period, President Nkurunziza’s ruling CND-FDD party has unleashed its feared youth wing, known as the Imbonerakure, who now reign with impunity across much of the country. According to Florent Geet of the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), “the Imbonerakure have become the spearhead of the repression, they have spread out across the country identifying and harassing the opposition.” The United Nations has estimated that at least 500 people have been killed since April 2015, with aid groups warning that as many as 2,000 people have died. The UN rights chief condemned the youth wing in April for repeatedly calling for the rape and murder of opposition supporters, stating that it amounts to a “campaign of terror.”

The Burundian government however has rejected all of the UN’s reports on the violence and calls for inquiries, as well as a Security Council resolution seeking the deployment of 228 police officers. It has also attempted to play down the security issues, with the country’s first vice president, Gasont Sindimwo stating, “the crisis is behind us, security is assured, peace has retuned to Burundi and everyone is going about their business.” This however is in stark contrast to what opposition leaders as well as NGO’s have said, noting that this claim of “peace” is the result of brutal repression, which has left hundreds dead. Witnesses have also reported that the Imbonerakure often set up roadblocks to search vehicles heading north into Rwanda or south into Tanzania, arresting scores of “suspects.” One resident of the capital, Bujumbura, has disclosed that “the entire population is terrorised because anyone can arrest you in the street and you wont be heard from again,” adding that “the fear is so strong that sometimes a father wont dare ask the security services for news of his missing son.” A UN diplomat in Geneva has also reported that “the regime in Burundi has grown more radicalized, but it has taken advantage of the growing divisions on the Security Council as well as the paralysis of the African Union, which has allowed it to act with incomplete impunity.”

The political opposition, and many elements of civil society in general, have fled the country, making it even more difficult for a solution to the political crisis. An opponent of the regime has disclosed that the opposition has also been weakened by internal divisions and “inflated egos among some of us.” Furthermore, negotiations between the regime and the CNARED, an umbrella of opposition groups, have stalled despite international pressure and financial sanctions imposed by the European Union (EU). A foreign diplomat in Bujumbura has also disclosed that the government is worried about rebel groups forming in neighbouring countries, including the Republican Forces of Burundi (Forebu), which mainly consists of deserting police and soldiers.

The East African Community is planning a summit meeting in May, with many officials seeing it as the last chance to find a diplomatic solution to a crisis that has prompted more than 400,000 people to flee the country.

Deadly Attacks in Western Europe Since 2014

Below are some of the deadly attacks that have occurred in Western Europe in the past three years.

• 7 April 2017 (Sweden) – A truck drives into a crowd on a shopping street and crashes into a department store in central Stockholm. Four people are killed and a further 15 are wounded, with police calling the incident a terror attack.
• 22 March 2017 (United Kingdom) – An attacker stabs a policeman close to parliament in London after a car ploughs into pedestrians on nearby Westminster Bridge. Six people are killed, including the assailant and the policeman he stabbed, and at least twenty people are injured.
• 18 March 2017 (France) – A man attempts to snatch a gun from a female soldier on patrol at Orly airport south of Paris. According to an interior ministry spokesman, the man had earlier fired a shot at police during an identity check before fleeing the scene. He was shot dead in the Orly incident by other members of the soldier patrol unit.
• 3 February 2017 (France) – A machete-wielding man, shouting “Allahu Akbar” (God is greatest), attacks soldiers in a shopping mall on the edge of the Louvre museum in Paris. He is shot and seriously wounded. Security sources in Cairo, Egypt later identify the man as Abdullah Reda al-Hamamy, who was born in Dakahliya, a province located northeast of Cairo.
• 19 December 2016 (Germany) – A truck ploughs into a crowded Christmas market in central Berlin, killing 12 people and injuring 48. German Chancellor Angela Merkel says that authorities are assuming it was a terrorist attack.
• 26 July 2016 (France) – Two attackers kill a priest with a blade and seriously wound another hostage in a church in northern France before being shot dead by police. French President Francois Hollande later discloses that the two hostage-takers had pledged allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group.
• 24 July 2016 (Germany) – A 21-year-od Syrian refugee is arrested after killing a pregnant woman and wounding two people with a machete in the southwestern city of Reutlingen, near Stuttgart. Police later state that “given the current evidence, there is no indication that this was a terrorist attack.”
• 24 July 2016 (Germany) – A Syrian man wounds fifteen people when he blows himself up outside a music festival in Ansbach in southern Germany. IS claims responsibility for the attack. The 27-year-old had arrived in Germany two years ago and had claimed asylum. He had been in trouble with the police repeatedly for drug-taking and other offences and had faced deportation to Bulgaria.
• 22 July 2016 (Germany) – An 18-year-old German-Iranian gunman apparently acting alone kills at least nine people in Munich. The teenager had no Islamist ties however he was obsessed with mass killings. The attack was carried out on the fifth anniversary of twin attacks by Norwegian mass murderer Anders Breivik, who killed 77 people.
• 18 July 2016 (Germany) – A 17-year-old Afghan refuge wielding an axe and a knife attacks passengers on a train in southern Germany, severely wounding four, before being shot dead by police. IS claims responsibility for the attack.
• 14 July 2016 (France) – A gunman drives a heavy truck into a crowd celebrating Bastille Day in the French city of Nice, killing 86 people and injuring scores more in an attack claimed by IS. The attacker is identified as a Tunisian-born Frenchman.
• 14 July 2016 (France) – A Frenchman of Moroccan origin stabs a police commander to death outside his home in a Paris suburb and kills his partner, who also worked for the police. The attacker told police negotiators during a siege that he was answering an appeal by IS.
• 22 March 2016 (Belgium) – Three IS suicide bombers, all Belgian nationals, blow themselves up at Brussels airport and in a metro train in the Belgian capital. Thirty-two people are killed. Police find links with the November 2015 attacks in Paris, France.
• 13 November 2015 (France) – Paris is rocked by multiple, near simultaneous gun-and-bomb attacks on entertainment sties around the city, killing 130 people and wounding a further 368. IS claims responsibility. Two of the ten known perpetrators were Belgian citizens while three others were French.
• 7 – 9 January 2015 (France) – Two Islamist militants break into an editorial meeting of satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo on 7 January and rake it with bullets, killing seventeen people.. Another militant kills a policewoman the following day and takes hostages at a supermarket on 9 January, killing four people before police shoot him dead.
• 24 May 2014 (Belgium) – Four people are killed in a shooting at the Jewish Museum in central Brussels. The attacker was French national Mehdi Nemmouche, 29, who was subsequently arrested in Marseille, France. He has since been extradited and is awaiting trial in Belgium.