MS Risk Blog

French Ex-Prime Minister Offers to Back Macron in Elections, but Told he Must First Join Party

Last week, French president-elect Emmanuel Macron won an offer of support from Socialist ex-prime minister Manuel Valls as he and his aides worked on strategy ahead of parliamentary elections, which are seen as being crucial to his reform plans.

The 39-year-old centrist’s victory over the anti-European Union (EU) Marine Le Pen of the National Front (FN) on 7 May brought relief to France’s EU allies and to financial markets, however he now faces the task of securing a second election victory in June for his start-up party, which has now been renamed “La Republique en marche” or “Republic on the Move,” in order to get the majority needed to implement his plans for economic recovery.

On 9 May, former prime minister Manuel Valls offered to stand for “En March” in the two-stage legislative elections in June, in what is the first high-profile defection since Mr Macron’s election win. The move could also be a boost for him. The following day, the president-elect’s camp announced that if the former prime minister wants to run for parliament, under its banner, he must officially join the party. The news effectively sends a signal to politicians to the left and the right of Mr Macron’s party that they cannot sit on the fence as they seek to position themselves for the elections, which will complete the political landscape for the next five years.

Successive centre-right and centre-left governments in the country have failed to pull France out of deep economic malaise, which includes slow growth, high unemployment of around 10 percent and dwindling competiveness.

While Mr Macron’s “En March” party currently has no seats in parliament, an opinion poll earlier this month predicted that it would emerge as the largest in the parliamentary elections, due to take place next month. A majority in parliament would provide Mr Macron with a decent chance of implementing a blueprint for lower state spending, high investment and reform of the tax, labour and pensions systems.

While candidates from both the right and the left failed to secure any wins in the general election, some leading centrist Republicans appear to be ready to override the party hierarchy and work closely with Mr Macron. One of them is former conservative prime minister Alain Juppe who recently told journalists in his power base in Bordeaux, “I am not envisaging systematic obstruction and head-on opposition (to Macron). We have to help France succeed and help vital reforms succeed.” However a strong element in The Republicans have a different strategy, as they hope to win a majority in the June elections and be able to name a conservative prime minister with whom Mr Macron would have to share power in a so-called “cohabitation.” However on past form in French politics, this has left an incumbent president unable to exert control over economic policy.

Ebola Outbreak in DRC Sparks Fears of Another Major Epidemic

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported on Friday 12 May that an Ebola outbreak has been declared in northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), after the deadly virus causes three deaths in the area since 22 April. Nine suspected infections have been reported.

According to the WHO, the outbreak affects an equatorial forest region in Bas-Uele province, which borders the Central African Republic (CAR). The WHO has disclosed that it is working closely with DRC authorities in order to help deploy health workers and protective equipment in the remote area to “rapidly control the outbreak.” In a television address, Health Minister Oly Ilunga confirmed the outbreak while urging the population “not to panic,” and stating that the country “has taken all necessary measures to respond quickly and efficiently to this new outbreak.”

Logistical Challenge in Latest Outbreak

The remote region in the DRC’s far north poses a logistical challenge for doctors and aid workers, however the sheer remoteness of the area could also help in limiting the spread.

According to the WHO, the zone at Likati, which is located some 1,300 kilometres (930 miles) from the capital Kinshasa, was very difficult to access, stressing however that it was crucial to pinpoint who had had contact with those affected in order to contain the outbreak. While the main city in the northeast, Kisangani, is accessible by air, and then one could travel by road to Buta, which is the capital of Bas-Uele, covering the 150 kilometres that separates Buta and Likati is another matter, combining travel by boat along the Itimbiri river and then using motorbikes to reach Likati. According to Eugene Kabambi, the spokesman for the WHO’s Congo mission, “four-wheel drives wont go through” the narrow forest roads, with Regis Billaudel, the head of mission of the medical NGO Alima, disclosing that “taking heavy equipment in all these zones is a real chilling…There it’s a world of motorcycles, cycles and stretchers.” He went on to say that an Alima team was already on its way to Likati adding “we are studying various possibilities.”

Previous Outbreaks

The last Ebola outbreak in the DRC occurred in 2014 and was quickly contained. According to official figures, it killed 49 people. This latest outbreak is the eight to date. Meanwhile in a separate outbreak that began in 2013, the Ebola epidemic in West Africa killed 11,300 people in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and has left thousands more survivors with long-term health problems. The WHO was criticized at the time for responding too slowly and for failing to grasp the gravity of the outbreak.

Ebola is a viral illness whose initial sysmptoms may include a sudden fever, aching muscles and a sore threat, with subsequent symptoms including diarrhoea and vomiting and, on occasion, internal and external bleeding. Humans can catch the illness from close contact with infected animals. Inter-human transmission occurs through direct contact with infected blood or bodily fluids. Mourners can also catch it if they have direct contact with the bodies of victims at funerals.

Ivory Coast Soldiers Agree to Deal with Government

On Tuesday, two spokesmen for soldiers behind a mutiny that has impacted Ivory Coast in the past five days have indicated that their leaders have accepted a government proposal on bonus payments and have agreed to return to their barracks, effectively ending the five-day revolt.

While so far neither the country’s defense minister nor government spokesman have confirmed the details of the agreement, a witness in Bouake, the epicentre of the uprising and Ivory Coast’s second largest city, disclosed that soldiers had withdrawn into their bases.

Reports have emerged that some Ivory Coast soldiers who participated in the five-day mutiny received notification from their banks that bonus payments wee credited to their accounts. According to Sergeant Seydou Kone, a mutiny spokesman, “some of them are getting messages from their banks. The transfers are being made. Its 5 million CFA francs (US $8,400) that’s arrived.”

The renegade soldiers, who have paralyzed cities and towns across the country since Friday 12 May, rejected an earlier deal that was announced by Defense Minister Alain-Richard Donwahi late on Monday 15 May. Leaders of the uprising however later disclosed that the agreement had been amended overnight, with Kone confirming in Bouake that “we accept the government’s proposal…We are returning to barracks now.” According to Kone, the proposal accepted by the soldiers means that 8,400 mutineers, mostly from rebel fighters who helped President Alassane Ouattara to power, will receive an immediate bonus payment of 5 million CFA francs (US $8,400), with another 2 million CFA franc being paid at the end of next month.

Back in January, in a separate mutiny, soldiers received 5 million CFA francs (US $8,400) each in order to end that revolt, with the government struggling to pay remaining bonuses of 7 million CFA francs, after the collapse in world prices for Cocoa, which is the country’s main export, squeezed finances. This most recent uprising erupted after a delegation representing the 8,400 troops announced that it had dropped the demand for further bonuses, angering other members of the group, who aid that they had not been consulted.

Residents in towns and cities across the country affected by the latest mutiny disclosed on Tuesday that calm had largely returned. Scattered gunfire was reported overnight in the commercial capital Abidjan and the western port city of San Pedro however it had petered out by dawn. According to locals, many schools in Abidjan remained closed. The African Development Bank also told its employees to remain home. While the situation was calm in San Pedro, a cocoa exporter and an official from the cocoa marketing board, the CCC, disclosed that businesses remained closed.

For up to date incidents in Ivory Coast and West Africa, please go to https://www.d-riskalert.com

Ransomware Global Attack is Largest in History

Experts are describing a global ransomware attack that occurred this month as “the biggest ransomware outbreak in history,” adding that Russia appears to be the hardest hit.

According to some experts, up to 99 countries may have been affected by the ransomware cyberattack that struck the NHS health service in the United Kingdom. It is believed to be the biggest attack of its kind ever recorded.

Russia appears to be the hardest hit nation, with its interior nad emergencies ministries and biggest bank, Sberbank, reporting that they wer targeted. According to Russia’s Interior Ministry, around 1,000 computers had been infected, adding however that it had localized the virus. According to researchers from the Kaspersky Lab, Spain, India and Ukraine were also severely affected, with the group stating that the malware struck at least 74 counties. Research with security software maker Avast however have reported that they had observed 57,000 infections in 99 countries, citing Taiwan amongst the top targets. In the United States, the effect of the hack did not appear to be widespread, at least initially.

Hacking group Shadow Brokers reportedly released the malware last month, after claiming to have discovered the flaw from the US National Security Agency (NSA).

Experts have indicated that criminal organizations were probably behind the attack, given how quickly the malware spread. Ransomware is malicious software that infects machines, locks them by encrypting data and then attempts to extort money to let users back in. The software used in the latest attacks is called WannaCry, or Wanna Decryptor, and exploits a vulnerability in the Windows operating system. It effectively allows the malware to automatically spread across networks, so that it can quickly infect large numbers of machines at the same organization. Cyber extortionists tricked victims into opening malicious attachments to spam emails that appeared to contain invoices, job offers, security warnings and other legitimate files. The ransomware then encrypted data on the computes, demanding payments of US $300 to US $600 to restore access. Security researchers have indicated that they observed some victims paying via the digital currency bitcoin, though they did not know what percent had given in to the extortionists.

Security Advisory: Cote d’Ivoire (15 May 2017)

Security Advisory

Military protests continued in cities across Cote d’Ivoire over the weekend as the revolt over bonuses gathered momentum – now entering its fourth day. Tensions began late last week in Bouake, spreading quickly to other cities and towns and mirroring an uprising that occurred back in January, which paralyzed parts of the country. Gunfire was heard in Bouake, Abidjan and in other cities after a national television broadcast ceremony on Thursday 11 May, in which a soldier presented as a spokesman for 8,400 former rebels said that they wished to apologise to President Alassane Ouattara for the mutiny. As well as apologizing the rebel spokesman, named as Sergeant Fofana, stated that they were giving up all their financial demands. However this has been rejected by about half of the mutineers. Tensions are likely to further continue in the coming days as President Ouattara has announced that the country funds are limited.       

MS Risk continues to advise anyone currently in the country to avoid military barracks, military installations, large crowds and demonstrations. We advise that you remain vigilant at all times, monitor the local media and follow instructions given by local police and security personnel.   In order to prepare for civil disorder in the event that tensions continue, we recommend the following immediate actions:

• Have a weeks supply of life support, including fuel
• Keep vehicles out of site in repair shops and stripped of valuables
• Be prepared to hand over vehicles if forced
• Keep a manifest of all staff members and report daily
• Do not go out before 0900 and be back by 1500 in order to avoid peak traffic and obvious car jacking times.
• Ensure all staff members have emergency numbers and control post numbers to hand
• Establish a Duty Manager roster so that there is always a responder ready
• Email all movements to a central point so that there is a running record
• You should expect to see increased government forces traffic and presence if intensions increase.

MS Risk continues to closely monitor the situation in Cote d’Ivoire and we will issue further bulletins as more information becomes available.

Incident Summary

Abidjan

• The northern road corridor is blocked and the Abobo district is very tense as it is a rebel stronghold.
• Sporadic gunfire was heard around 5 AM (0500 GMT) on Monday 15 May at military camps in Abidjan.
• A march against the ongoing army mutiny was held in the Abidjan on Saturday 13 May.

Bouake

• Gunfire was heard at dawn on Monday 15 May in the city.
• On Sunday 14 May, at least five people were wounded by gunfire during protests against the army mutiny. Heavy gunfire erupted on Sunday as soldiers sought to disperse crowds of residents who were attempting to organize a march against the mutiny.
• On Sunday, mutinous soldiers opened up access to the city, effectively allowing vehicles to move in and out for the first time since Friday 12 May, when they cut off access, defying the army chief who threatened severe punishment if they did not return to barracks.

Daloa

• Heavy shooting was heard in the city on Monday 15 May.
• A march against the ongoing army muting was held on Saturday 13 May in Daloa.

Korhogo

• A march against the ongoing army mutiny was held in the city of Korhogo on Saturday 13 May.
• On Saturday 13 May, mutinous soldiers shot and wounded two residents. According to witnesses, the two young men, who were travelling on a motorcycle, tired to force their way through a roadblock erected near the city’s main military base when the soldiers opened fire, wounding them in the legs.
• Shooting was heard overnight (12 – 13 May) in the town.