MS Risk Blog

French Parliamentary Election: Oversees Voters Overwhelmingly Back President Macron’s Party

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France’s overseas voters have overwhelmingly backed candidates for the nascent party of its new President Emmanuel Macron.

According to the results, candidates for La Republique en Marche (LREM) came first in ten of the eleven seats given to France’s 1.3 million expatriates. France’s expatriates are divided amongst eleven constituencies, which were created in legislative redistricting in 2010. Their geographical distance means that they vote early. Critics have questioned the wisdom of announcing the results so early, stating that it could affect the domestic vote.

Opinion polls at home in France also give President Macron’s movement a clear lead in elections, which are due to begin on Sunday 11 June. Currently, the LREM has no parliamentary seats and most of the president’s candidates are political novices. On Tuesday, a survey of voter intentions for the coming legislative elections showed that the president’s party is set to win the biggest parliamentary majority for a French president since Charles de Gaulle’s 1968 landslide. The Ipsos Sopra-Steria poll found that the LREM party was seen scoring 29.5 percent of the vote in the 11 June first round. The poll further showed that with a solid lead ahead of other parties, LREM would go on to win 385 – 415 seats out of 577 in the lower house of parliament in a second round of voting, to be held on 18 June. The projected majority fits with a Cevipof survey for Le Monde that was published on 2 June and would be the strongest since voters rallied behind former president De Gaulle in 1968 after student revolts and nationwide general strikes. The conservative Republicans and their allies are seen winning 23 percent, with the National Front (FN) winning 17 percent, the hard-left France Unbowed at 12.5 percent and the Socialists at 8.5 percent. LREM’s first round lead has narrowed from 31 percent the last time the poll was conducted a week after President Macron’s former campaign chief, who is now a cabinet minister, came under investigation for past financial dealings. The investigation into the activities of Richard Ferrand took a new turn on Tuesday as a media report indicated that investigators had raided a business headquarters linked to their inquiries.
Gaining a legislative majority would complete President Macron’s ground-shaking realignment of French politics. Furthermore, it would enable him to begin work on his programme of reforming the French labour market, reviving the economy and pushing for reform of the European Union (EU).