MS Risk Blog

India Bombing Highlights Muslim – Buddhist Tensions

The weekend bombing in India of one of Buddhism’s holiest sites showcases the growing problems between Muslim and Buddhist communities throughout South East Asia. Visitors should be aware of the growing troubles across the region and potential for related terrorist incidents, particularly given that the Buddhist pilgrimage season begins in September.

This recent incident happened on Sunday, July 7^th at the Bohd Gaya temple complex in Bihar state, a historic religious site. There were a reported 10 blasts in total throughout the complex between 5:30 and 6am during morning prayers, targeting both statues and areas of religious significance as well as a bus stop. Official sources said the bombs ranged from low to high intensity, and the explosions injured two monks (one from Tibet, another from Myanmar). The temple itself was not seriously damaged. A further 3 unexploded bombs were found at the site over the following days and defused. Security at Buddhist sites in India and throughout the region has been increased as a result.

New Delhi was quick to condemn the incident as a terrorist attack, and blamed the notorious Indian Mujahedeen (IM) organisation, though no group has as of yet claimed responsibility for the attacks. The IM has been responsible for several terrorist attacks throughout India since 2008. It is reportedly related in some fashion with the banned organisation Student’s Islamic Movement of India, and also has connections with Pakistani based Lashkar-e-Taiba, one of the most active terrorist organisations in South Asia. It has been classed as a terrorist group by the British and American governments as well as the Indian authorities.

So far, 1 local person has been arrested in connection with the attack due to his identity card having been found at the scene. Police have however released CCTV images and sketches of two others they are looking for. Named as brothers Sahidur and Saifur Rehman (originally from Bihar but now living in Scotland and Saudi Arabia respectively), authorities believe they are IM members who have slipped into Bihar within the last two months. Currently their whereabouts are unknown. Controversy has also emerged in India about the response of the authorities to intelligence received in the days prior to the incident, with suggestions from opposition politicians that warnings were not heeded and that the attacks could have been prevented.

The Bohd Gaya complex is one of Buddhism’s holiest sites, and includes the Mahabodhi temple, where the Supreme Buddha is said to have gained enlightenment and a UNESCO world heritage site. Yearly, Bohd Gaya attracts many visitors from Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Thailand, Nepal, China and Japan while the Dalai Lama makes frequent trips to the area. This is the first time Bohd Gaya has been successfully attacked, though police say they have foiled attempts in the past.

Nevertheless, attacks on Buddhists are rare in India, and Bihar state is more known for Maoist activity than Islamist attacks. This has led numerous commentators to draw an explicit connection between these attacks and recent problems between Muslim and Buddhist communities throughout the region, particularly in neighbouring Myanmar (Burma).

Myanmar has seen extreme unrest in the past year between nationalist Rakhine Buddhists and the minority Rohingya Muslim people, leaving destruction, chaos and many dead across large swathes of the country. Many Rohingya, not recognised as citizens of Myanmar and officially stateless, have been attempting to flee Myanmar to other countries in the region. There are Muslim militant groups active in Myanmar, and these have been connected with Al-Qaeda and other jihadist terrorist organisations in the past. These ethnic tensions have begun to have a regional impact, particularly in Malaysia and Indonesia who have majority Muslim populations. Ethnic tensions between Muslim and Buddhist communities are also on the rise in Sri Lanka, with the end of the 26 year civil war failing to bridge divides between communities. Further moves attacks on Buddhist sites in India could have extremely serious implications for regional security and stability, risking further exacerbation of ethnic tensions throughout South East Asia.

There are many Buddhist holy sites in India, and they could be potential targets of future attacks, particularly as the Buddhist pilgrimage season begins in September and will see hundreds of thousands of visitors to many sites. Caution and a high degree of security awareness should be maintained at all times.

Explosion in Mogadishu’s Main Market Kills at least One Person

A car has exploded inside the main market in Somalia’s capital city after a hand grenade was thrown into a vehicle which was carrying four police officials.  At least one person has been killed in the attack, proving that despite recent infighting inside al-Shabaab, including the recent killing of top leaders, the extremist group is far from defeated and continues to be a severe threat to security within Mogadishu and the rest of Somalia.  The attack comes just one day after Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s plane caught on fire, forcing the president to route back to Mogadishu.

According to police officials, the four-wheel drive vehicle caught fire after a homemade bomb was detonated at about 10:30 local time (07:30 GMT) in the capital’s main market.  Sources on the ground have indicated that officers from a nearby police station rushed to the scene, shooting in the air in order to disperse the crowd.  A police source in Mogadishu has confirmed that four of the police officers inside the vehicle were wounded.  The market was partially closed for several hours while an investigation into the attacks is currently underway.

Al-Shabaab spokesman Abdulaziz Abu Musab has indicated that the militant group’s fighters had set off an improvised explosive device which targeted security officials in Mogadishu’s Bakara market.  The militant group has claimed to have killed three officials and wounded three others.

Business has been booming in Bakara market over the last two years.  Although insecurity remains to be an issue throughout the capital city there have not been many recent attacks in Bakara market.  The attack was carried out on the eve of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which is one of the busiest shopping days.  The Somali Federal Government has also warned the public that Islamist militants may increase their activity over the following month.  In previous years, the month of Ramadan, which is expected to start this week, has witnessed a surge in al-Shabaab attacks as gunmen have been urged to carry out attacks by their extremist preachers.  In a bid to topple the internationally-backed Somali government, al-Shabaab militants have launched a string of attacks, including a daylight attack last month on a fortified United Nations compound.

Meanwhile a plane carrying the Somali president was forced to make an emergency landing in Mogadishu after one of its engines reportedly caught fire.  A spokesman for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed confirmed the incident, stating that it was not immediately clear why the engine had stopped working.  According to local reports, the President was not injured however fire fighters quickly arrived at the scene in order to put out the flames.  The President was flying to the South Sudan capital of Juba when his flight was forced to turn round.

News of the incident was first reported on a Twitter feed that is run by al-Shabaab, however the report did not indicated that the militant group had attacked the plane.

Violent Clashes Between Army And Pro-Morsi Protesters

8 July, 2013 – An investigation has begun into deadly clash in Cairo earlier today which left 42 civilians and one soldier dead, and 322 civilians and 40 soldiers injured. The clashes occurred between the Egyptian Army and supporters of ousted president Mohamed Morsi at the Republican Guard headquarters. Pro-Morsi supporters have been staging planned protests and sit-ins around the country since Friday in hopes of returning the ousted president to power.

Conflicting reports have emerged regarding how the clashes started. The Egyptian army has released an official statement claiming that an armed terrorist group attempted to break into the headquarters of the Republican Guard early on Monday and attacked security forces.  However, the Muslim Brotherhood has released a contradictory statement claiming that peaceful protesters were performing the Fajjr (dawn prayers) when the army fired tear gas and gunshots at them, “without any consideration for the sanctity of prayers or life.” The Brotherhood goes on to state that women and children sought shelter in a nearby mosque, which was besieged by security forces who then “arrested anyone who came out of it.”The army states that it arrested 200 people who had “large quantities of firearms, ammunition and Molotov cocktails.”

The  pro-Morsi umbrella group, the National Alliance for Supporting Legitimacy, is continuing sit-ins at Rabaa Al-Adawiya Mosque in Nasr City, and other groups are protesting in several other locations, including Nahdet Misr Square in Giza.

Following today’s events, Strong Egypt Party leader Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh, a critic of former President Morsi, called on interim president Adly Mansour to step down. The Salafist Nour Party, which had initially backed the ouster of President Mohamed Morsi, announced that it will withdraw from the political process in response to the incident. The party released a statement saying, “We wanted to avoid bloodshed, but now blood has been spilled. So now we want to announce that we will end all negotiations with the new authorities.”

Constitution Party leader, Mohamed El Baradei, has called for an independent investigation into clashes. El Baradei was set to be appointed as interim Prime Minister for Egypt but the appointment has been delayed after heavy backlash from Morsi supporters.

Also on Monday, two army soldiers fled from kidnappers, accusing pro-Morsi supporters of capturing them in Cairo’s Ain Shams district. The army says a group of armed Morsi supporters kidnapped soldiers Samir Abdallah and Azzam Hazem. They forced the soldiers to chant pro-Morsi slogans and insults to the army, and beat them. The soldiers say the incident was filmed.

The Islamic month of Ramadan begins today. Generally, this month sees quiet mornings, with people engaging in social activities in the evening after breaking fast. It is likely that evening activities will continue to center around political differences, which may result late night/early morning clashes centered around areas near mosques.

Accidental Release of Diplomatic Letter Confirms Rift Between Somali Government and Kenyan Forces

An apparently accidental publication of a diplomatic letter has exposed a rift between the Somali Federal Government and Kenyan troops. The letter accuses the Kenyan army of causing recent faction fighting, which has left at least sixty-five dead in the southern port city of Kismayo. Kenyan troops are in Somalia as part of the African Union (AU) force who is currently battling Islamist militants in support of the United Nations-backed government. Kenyan authorities have yet to comment on the letter.

The letter, which is titled as “Extremely Urgent – Kismayo conflict,” is from the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Fawzia Yusuf Adam. He is also the deputy prime minister to the African Union. The letter accuses Kenyan troops, who are part of the AU’s peacekeeping force, known as AMISOM, of not being neutral peacekeepers and that instead, they are attempting to create a buffer state, known as Jubbaland, within Somalia, which will be run by local politicians that they can control. It further indicates that the Kenyan Defence Force (KDF), which is backed by one Somalia faction against others, arrested a senior Somali government army officer and used heavy weapons in civilian areas. According to the letter, the “incompetence” of the Kenyan commander of AMISOM in southern Somalia is said to have caused an outbreak of recent fighting in the southern port city of Kismayo which has led to a “preliminary” count of 65 dead and 155 injured. According to on-the-ground reports in Mogadishu, the letter appears to have been emailed to journalists accidentally after someone had mistakenly included the Prime Minister’s “press contacts” into the email recipients’ list.

The letter calls for the “immediate deployment” of a multinational African peacekeeping force to take over control in southern Somalia in a bid to calm the situation, which threatens to destabilize a region of the country which continues to be threatened by al-Shabaab militants. Although the Kenyan AMISOM contingent was recently reinforced by several hundred troops from Sierra Leone, Sierra Leoneans are “embedded” inside the Kenyan units. As such, the KDF continues to be the dominating force in this region of Somalia, which has been classified by AMISOM as “Sector 2.” While the letter highlights the need for a multinational deployment in the region, it does not go as far as to say that Kenyan troops should be replaced. Instead, it pointedly states that new “political officers” should be appointed for the area “whose nationalities will be different from the AMISOM contingent in Sector 2.”

Although Kenyan authorities have not yet officially responded or made any comments pertaining to the newly released diplomatic letter, the Kenyan army has previously insisted that it was neutral in its dealing with Somalia and that it was only attempting to bring peace to its neighbor. However this is not the first time that the Kenyan troops have been accused of backing a militia force, which opposed the central Somali government in Mogadishu. Over the past several weeks, authorities in Somalia have accused Kenyan troops of supporting militia soldiers “in violation of their mandate,” as well as attacking civilians and arresting a top government army commander. These accusations culminated in the Somali government demanding several days ago that Kenyan troops stationed in Kismayo be replaced. With the accidental release of this confidential diplomatic letter, it appears that this time the Somali government’s accusation may confirm suspicions in the region that while Kenya’s troops are a part of AMISOM, they may also have their own agenda – to create a buffer zone to prevent further cross-border attacks which have plagued the border region ever since Kenya deployed its troops in Somalia in 2011. Kenyan forces seized Kismayo, which is located 480 km (300 miles) south of Mogadishu, from al-Shabaab in October 2012. Currently, there are several self-declared presidents of Jubbaland and the central government in Mogadishu does not recognize neither one of them. Although Somali and AU forces have driven al-Shabaab militants out of a number of major cities, its fighters still control the smaller towns and rural areas located in central and southern Somalia, where they have been able to launch attacks within government-controlled territory.

Egypt Update: Monsour Sworn in as Interim President

On 4 July, head of the Egyptian High Constitutional Court (HCC), Adli Monsour, has taken the oath of office as Egypt’s Interim president, following yesterday’s overthrow of former President Mohamed Morsi. Immediately following his swearing in, Monsour gave his first speech to the people of Egypt, thanking the youth for leading the charge to gain back the 2011 revolution. “I look forward to parliamentary and presidential elections held with the genuine and authentic will of the people. The youth had the initiative and the noblest thing about this glorious event is that it was an expression of the nation’s conscience and an embodiment of its hopes and ambitions. It was never a movement seeking to realise special demands or personal interests.”

Monsour, who had been deputy head of the Supreme Constitutional Court from 1992, had been chosen by President Morsi to be the leader of the Supreme Constitutional Court upon the retirement of its former leader, effective 30 June.

He had been in office only two days when the army named him leader of Egypt

Monsour is a 67-year-old father of three, French educated at the Ecole Nationale de l’Administration. He was a long-serving judge under the former president Hosni Mubarak, serving in state sponsored religious courts as well as civil and criminal courts. Monsour helped to draft the supervision law for the presidential elections that brought Morsi to power in 2012, which included setting a legal timeframe for electoral campaigning.

Immediate Fallout

As the swearing in proceeded, dozens of Mohamed Morsi-supporters protested outside the High Constitutional Court. Security forces formed a barricade to prevent clashes with celebrating citizens, and arm tanks and soldiers surrounded the HCC.

Following the swearing in, several ministers from Egypt’s Cabinet who belonged to the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) and Muslim Brotherhood presented their resignations in protest. These include the Ministers of Local Administration, Youth, Labour Force, Investment, Supply, Planning and International Cooperation, Education, Information, and Transportation. Declining an offer by Interim President Monsour to work on developing a unified government, Sheikh Abdel Rahman El-Bar, a member of the Brotherhood’s executive board, stated that the group will not work with “the usurper authorities.

In Damanhour and Beni Suef, thousands of Muslim Brotherhood supporters held rallies against what they are calling “a coup against legitimacy,” holding photos of Morsi and chanting, “Down with military rule.” Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood issued a statement Wednesday announcing their refusal of the former president’s removal, calling the military’s move a “coup d’etat.”In Beni Suef, reports say that protesters have stormed and are currently occupying the governorate building.

In a press conference on Thursday, The National Alliance to Support Legitimacy, an umbrella group for several Islamist parties, has issued a call for “peaceful protests on Friday in all of Egypt’s provinces to denounce the military coup against legitimacy and in support of the legitimacy of President Morsi.” The statement was echoed on the Muslim Brotherhood’s official website, Ikhwanweb.

Egyptian Army’s Overnight Actions

In the early hours of July 4, several hundred arrest warrants were issued for Muslim Brotherhood figures who were accused of inciting violence or posing a threat to national security. Among those arrested were the Muslim Brotherhood’s former Supreme Guide Mahdi Akef, and the group’s current Supreme Guide, Mohamed Badie. Badie was arrested for the murder of eight protestors in Marsa Matrouh, near the Libyan border. The army has taken them to Tora Prison on the outskirts of Cairo, where ousted president Hosni Mubarak and his sons are detained.

Security forces also stormed Al Jazeera’s Egyptian offices, arresting five employees for reportedly showing “only pro-Morsi” demonstrations. Several other stations were also taken off the air, including the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist networks in al-Nass, al-Hifaz and al-Amjaad. The Army states that it is a precautionary measure to prevent the media from inciting violence. It is unknown if or when they will resume broadcasting.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s legislative chamber, the Shura council, has been dissolved due to suspension of the constitution, and will not reconvene until a new constitution is drawn.  In June, the council’s election was ruled unconstitutional by the HCC, but was granted immunity from dissolution by the now suspended constitution. The lower council was dissolved earlier in the year by a separate court ruling. Following the draft of the new constitution, new presidential and parliamentary elections will then take place. A timeline is yet to be determined.

Hope for Egypt

Despite these setbacks, Egyptians are in high spirits at the prospects of rebuilding the nation. Protesters celebrated into the night, with fireworks and cheers. In the morning, Egypt’s main stock exchange index, the EGX30, which had been in decline for a month, rose by 7.3 percent, cutting year-to-date losses to just 2.3 percent as the market reacted to the ousting of Morsi from power. Egyptian investors, relieved by the removal of Morsi, purchased a net LE140.3 million worth of stocks, and total turnover reached a relatively high LE459 million. Egypt saw a market capital gain of LE20 billion in the first hours of trading.

International Reaction

There has been mixed reaction to the events in Egypt. In the Middle East, formal congratulations came from Saudi Arabia; however, leaders in Qatar, a supporter of Islamists in the Arab uprisings, sent a more muted statement, saying they would “respect the wishes of the Egyptian people.” Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad called Morsi’s ouster the “fall of political Islam”, and said, “Syria’s people and leadership and army express their deep appreciation for the national, populist movement in Egypt which has yielded a great achievement.”

Rached Ghannouchi, head of Tunisia’s ruling Islamist an-Nahda party, called the removal “a flagrant coup against democratic legitimacy,” and Turkey has lamented the loss of a valuably ally, calling it “unacceptable.” Iran called for respecting the legitimate demands of the people, but warned of “foreign and enemy opportunism”.

In the African Union, an unidentified senior source has stated that the group is likely to suspend Egypt from all its activities following Morsi’s removal from office. Members of the African Union’s Peace and Security Council will meet on Friday, and may implement the AU’s response, which is suspension for any country where an unconstitutional change has taken place.

Western foreign governments are still working through semantics to determine whether Morsi’s removal was a coup, or a military intervention. UK Foreign Secretary William Hague criticized military intervention but called it a popular move, urging fast and inclusive transition: “We have to recognise the enormous dissatisfaction in Egypt with what the president had done and the conduct of the government over the past year.” The United States is considering using the annual $1.3 billion aid package as encouragement for civilian