MS Risk Blog

China Heightens Security in Xinjiang

Following major ethnic violence and rioting last week, Chinese authorities appear to beginning a security crackdown in the remote and fractious Xinjiang province, in the far west of China. Xinjiang is the site of sporadic violence between the local Muslim Uighur population and authorities.

Paramilitary police and armoured vehicles have flooded the streets of Urumqi, the capital, and access to information in the province is even more strictly controlled than usual. Given that the 4 year anniversary of rioting that killed nearly 200 people is in 3 days, more violence and disorder is expected in the coming week. Though not commonly targeted in attacks, any foreigners in the region should exercise caution at all times and in particular avoid any demonstrations.

The most recent unrest began on Wednesday last week, in the township of Lukqun, about 200km southeast of Urumqi. Reports say a large mob, armed with knives, attacked several police stations and a government building, attacking individuals and setting police cars alight before the authorities opened fire. 35 people, including 9 security personnel, were killed in this incident. This was followed by an incident on Friday, in which more than 100 people riding motorcycles and armed with knives attacked a police station in the town of Hotan, though no-one was killed in this second incident.

Recent months have seen more occurrences of normally sporadic unrest. Of particular note is an incident at the end of April in the town of Selibuya, Kashgar province, in which 21 people died. 12 police officers were reportedly burned alive in this incident. The most serious unrest in recent years was in 2009, when nearly 200 people, mostly Han Chinese, were killed in widespread rioting.

Chinese authorities strictly control all media and information in Xinjiang, and accurately verifying facts surrounding incidents can be very difficult. Officially, Beijing blames ‘terrorists’ for any and all unrest, attributing it to separatist groups who want to establish an independent state of ‘East Turkestan’. It also typically attributes violence to the influence of foreigners in the province. In this recent incident, it has explicitly implicated the Syrian rebel movement, suggesting that the unrest was precipitated by Uighurs who have trained and fought in the Syrian civil war.

Despite the obvious bias of Chinese authorities in this matter, there is some truth to their claims that some Uighurs are connected with jihadist groups and similar. Al Qaeda has in the past threatened to attack Chinese targets following the deaths of Uighurs in Xinjiang, and over 20 Uighurs were detained following the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and held in Guantanamo Bay. The small East Turkestan Independence Movement (ETIM) is reportedly affiliated with Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, and is classed as a terrorist organisation by the United Nations.

Nevertheless, the attitude of the Chinese authorities is also very likely a major contributing factor in ethnic unrest. While Xinjiang province has seen major investment following China’s economic growth, little of this appears to have benefited the ethnic Uighur population. Massive resettlement of Han Chinese has dramatically changed the ethnic demographics of the province, and Uighurs complain of losing jobs, confiscation of their land, an erosion of their traditional culture and of being deprived of their religious rights.

Xinjiang is in the far west of China, and has been controlled by various Chinese empires sporadically throughout history. Following a brief period of independence, it was brought under communist Chinese control in 1949. The province is extremely rich in resources, a fact that has brought increased investment by also increased immigration. Xinjiang’s population is now 43% Uighur and 40% Han.

While not commonly targeted in any unrest, foreigners in Xinjiang should maintain caution while in the province. Any demonstrations or protests should be avoided, particularly as the authorities typically respond harshly to any unrest. Foreigners may also encounter harassment and intimidation from state authorities, and should avoid taking pictures of sensitive incidents or locations.

UN Mission in Mali Deploys While Malian Government Confirms Elections

The United Nations has commenced its military mission in Mali, effectively bolstering the mission in a country that remains to be threatened by militants and which is just weeks away from what many believe could be chaotic elections.  The UN mission, known as MINUSMA, is bringing 6,000 West African troops, who are already in the country, under its command.  The operation will eventually double in size as by December of this year, the UN force will reach its full strength, with 12,600 uniformed personnel under its command.  It will be the world body’s third largest mission.  During the launch ceremony, which was held in Bamako, mission chief Bert Koenders stated that “MINUSMA’s military force will be reinforced gradually in the coming months,” further noting that “contingents will deploy in the main population centers in northern Mali… But MINUSMA cannot do everything.  We are here to support the efforts of the government and its partners.”  The UN force will operate alongside troops from its former colonial power France, some of whom will remain in the country in order to tackle the remaining Islamist militants who continue to pose a threat to the security of the entire country.  There are currently around 6,000 troops, mainly from West African countries, however the UN is still seeking soldiers, helicopters and intelligence support from contributing countries before the mission is fully up and running by the end of this year.

Although the UN force is expected to eventually take over security duties from the French forces, which led an operation to oust Islamist militants from the northern region of the country back in January, its first mission will be to secure the north so that Mali can hold nationwide presidential elections on 28 July.  Despite weeks of uncertainty pertaining to the elections, the interim Malian government confirmed on Tuesday that the elections will go ahead as planned.  The decision to hold the first round of elections on 28 July, which will possibly be followed by a second round on 11 August, was taken by the Malian government which was increasingly under pressure from the international community, and especially from former colonial power France, to set an election date.  However Mali’s election commission, which is organising the vote alongside the government, has stipulated that the distribution of polling cards was seriously behind schedule and that it would be “extremely difficult” to get nearly eight million cards out in a country where 500,000 people have been displaced by the conflict which has lasted more than a year.  Furthermore, the election commission also highlighted the ongoing instability that is taking place in the northeastern town of Kidal, which continues to be occupied by Tuareg separatists and which still has seen no army presence despite a ceasefire being signed between the transitional government and the rebels on 18 June in Burkina Faso.  In response to the confirmation of elections, UN Secretary-General Ban-Ki-moon stated that holding a poll on July 28 that was credible, peaceful and accepted by Malians would be “an enormous undertaking.”

Egypt: Army Gives Politicians 48 hours to Reach Agreement

The Egyptian army told President Mohamed Morsi and his opponents that they have 48 hours to address the demands of Egyptians, who have been out in the millions in a scheduled protest since 30 June, the one year anniversary of the election of Morsi. Some estimates claim as many as 14 million civilians have taken to the streets.

Military chief Abdul Fattah al Sisi made the announcement of the ultimatum as the ministers of tourism, environment, communication and legal affairs handed in their letters of resignation together to Prime Minister Hisham Qandil.

The statement from the Army reads, “The Armed Forces repeat its call for the people’s demands to be met and give an ultimatum of 48 hours as a last chance to shoulder the burden of a historic moment for a nation that will not forgive or tolerate any party that is lax in shouldering its responsibility. The Armed Forces calls on all sides that if the people’s demands are not answered, then the Armed forces, based on its national responsibility, and out of respect of the demands of the people, find it necessary to declare a road map for the future, and certain measures to be executed under supervision with the participation of the whole patriotic spectrum, including the youth.”

As Egyptian Army circles Cairo’s Tahrir Square with Apache Helicopters, protesters have welcomed the Army’s position, erupting into cheers at the announcement, and waving the Egyptian flag, as well as flags from various factions of the military, vowing to keep up the protests. One protester was seen taking the Muslim Brotherhood sign off the headquarters’ front wall.

Anti-government protestors believe that Morsi has done nothing for the country as a whole, rather tailoring his presidency and his cabinet to serve the ultra-conservative Muslim community, evidenced by providing several top political and judicial positions to supporters of his party, and pushing through a highly contested constitution. Opposition leaders have created a petition, called “Tamarod” (Rebel) demanding the removal of Morsi, and claim to have signatures from over 22 million people, nearly half of the voting population.

Pro-government counter-protesters believe that Egyptians haven’t given Morsi a chance, and are therefore circumventing the diplomatic process. Some believe the anti-government protesters are plotting the return of Hosni Mubarak’s regime, which was ousted in February of 2011. The Muslim Brotherhood and its more militant allies have vowed to defend Morsi’s position. Conservative clerics have gone as far as calling non-supporters “kafirs” an Islamic term for individuals who know a truth but refuse to accept it, and thus condemning themselves.

The Army has called the 48 hour ultimatum for fear that further delay will increase the rifts in the already heavily divided nation. In Alexandria and Port Said, violent protest has left three people dead and over 70 injured. In Alexandria, two people were killed, including a 21 year old US citizen who was looking on at the protests, and was killed from a stab wound to the chest in a scuffle between pro and anti-Brotherhood parties. Top Egyptian clerics have issued warnings of civil war as a result of the last week’s violence.

On Sunday, the Cairo headquarters of Morsi’s party, the Muslim Brotherhood, was attacked by dozens of anti-Brotherhood protesters. The civilians fired shotguns and threw stones and petrol bombs. The compound in Cairo has been fortified, however Several provincial offices of the movement have been attacked in the days leading up to the scheduled day of protest. Police were not present during the attacks.

Also on Sunday, four people were killed in Assiut and Beni Suef, south of Cairo. The Egyptian Health Ministry says that nearly 200 people have been injured in clashes in several provincial towns. The Suez Canal has been placed under “maximum security”.

Before the military announcement, organisers of the protests have gave Morsi until 5pm on Tuesday to step down, calling on the police and military to support for “the popular will”.

Police and military troops are protecting key buildings around the country, and hospitals have been placed on high alert.

Morsi may pursue an exit strategy in exchange for salvaging the reputation of the Muslim Brotherhood in the region. If this is the case, it is likely that the group will begin to develop strategies coming elections. The Brotherhood in Egypt was abolished following a military coup by Gamal Abdel Nasser in 1956, however the organisation never disbanded; it stayed quietly intact while dong community service. Because the Brotherhood remained organised, the group was ready to reincarnate its political capabilities and place itself in a strong political position, particularly when compared to diverse and weak political parties that have emerged since 2011, with few viable potential leaders. Thus salvaging the reputation of the Muslim Brotherhood could be the best option for the party. However, the possibility remains that even if Morsi peacefully steps down, militant allies will resort to violent, reactive protest unless a conservative cleric addresses potential reactionaries.

Should Morsi actually step down, the military would more than likely take over as they did after Mubarak. This puts Egypt at risk of repeating the cycle of political leadership stemming from the military as it did in 1956.

A third potential option is that the Army simply provides a road map and uses their might to enforce it, by forcing opposing groups to work together and taking measures to ensure the success of their plan. Ultimately, it is not a coup, but would create a system whereby the political parties answer to the military.

It is still unknown how the Egyptian army intends to proceed should the parties fail to come to an agreement by Tuesday.

Mali Security Update

Mali’s ex-junta leaders has asked for forgiveness a year-and-a-half after the coup he led destabilized the entire country.  Presidential elections in Mali remain to be uncertain while the United Nations Security Council has confirmed that a UN peacekeeping force will be deployed to Mali at the start of July.

Captian Amadou Sanogo, the military chief who led the coup that destabilized Mali last year, indicated during a reconciliation ceremony between rival army factions that he wanted “to ask for forgiveness from Malians as a whole.”  The event which was held on Wednesday was aimed to heal the split between the rival army factions.  Amongst those who attended the event was Mali’s interim President Dioncounda Traore, where he announced that all the soldiers who had been arrested after trying to stage a counter-coup in May 2012 have since been released.

In March 2012, Captain Sanogo headed the forces that would eventually overthrow the regime of President Amadou Toumani Toure.  Political and economic instability followed while a French intervention was launched in January 2013 in order to combat an advancing Islamist militant threat.  International troops quickly moved in to tackle al-Qaeda militants and their allies who took advantage of the chaos and gained control of the country’s vast northern desert region.  The coup also created a rift amongst the pro-junta soldiers and those who were loyal to the former president.

Although France has began a gradual troop withdrawal in April this year, and has started to hand over security operations to a regional African force that was set up in order to help the Malian army provide security, Islamist militants have continued to lead guerrilla-style attacks, leading many regional and international states to have doubts about the security level in the country.  Furthermore, although Tuareg rebels signed a peace deal, which was intended to help pave the elections on 28 July, with the interim Malian government, doubts about the upcoming elections have also increased, as many believe the country is not yet ready and stable enough in order to hold nationwide elections.  Even as political parties rushed to meet the deadline for submitting their candidates, Mali’s electoral body voiced its doubts on Friday over the feasibility of holding the much-anticipated presidential poll in July as planned.  President of the National Independent Election Commission Mamadou Diamoutene indicated on Friday that there were a number of challenges that remain to be resolved, stating that “the deadline for candidates to file expires today at midnight.  An yet there are many obstacles for us to overcome.  I have said it before and I will say it now:  it will be very difficult to stick to the date of July 28.”  Amongst the challenges is the fact that electoral ID cards only began being distributed on Friday, one month before the scheduled poll.  Mali is a nation twice the size of France, and the country’s vast northern regions remains to be cut off from the rest of the country, consequently making it unlikely that the cards will be able to be distributed to all precincts in time.  The cards are also missing key information, such as voters‘ polling locations.

What is certain is that a UN peacekeeping force will likely deploy in Mali from 1 July.  Earlier this week, the United Nations Security Council agreed that a 12,600 peacekeeping force, known as MINUSMA, should deploy at the beginning of July.  The force will incorporate the 6,000 West African soldiers who are already in the country.  It will aim to provide security for the election and will likely face security and political obstacles and will be deployed in extreme summer heat.  It will also aim to provide security for the presidential elections.

Nanga Parbat Massacre Demonstrates New Dangers

The murder of 11 individuals at the base camp of Nanga Parbat late last week suggests new dangers may be emerging for foreign climbers and tourists in the remote but previously peaceful regions of northern Pakistan. Nanga Parbat is the ninth highest mountain in the world at 8126 metres and a popular destination for Himalayan mountaineers.

On the evening of Saturday, 22^nd June, 16 individuals dressed in the uniform of the Gilget Scouts (a police paramilitary unit based in northern Pakistan) arrived at the base camp of Nanga Parbat. After stealing personal belongings and destroying mobile phones, they killed 11 of the people staying at the camp. 10 of these were foreigners – 3 Ukrainians, 2 Slovakians, 2 Chinese, a dual US-Chinese citizen, a Lithuanian, and a Nepalese. Also among the dead was a local guide, reportedly killed because of his Shia religion, while Sunnis at the camp were spared.

While initially the perpetrators of the attack were unknown, it now appears that the Pakistani Taliban (or TTP) were responsible, claiming responsibility in a press release late on Sunday, 23^rd June. Despite the common name, the TTP share no direct affiliation (and indeed have an at times problematic relationship with) the Afghan Taliban.

Based largely in the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA) of northwest Pakistan, the TTP targets mainly the organs of the Pakistani state. It has been extremely active in terrorist incidents throughout the country – including being implicated in the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Moreover the group has been implicated by US Government officials as being behind the 2010 attempted car bomb in Times Square, New York, and been connected with the 2009 attack on CIA facilities at Camp Chapman in Afghanistan.

The TTP is extremely closely affiliated with Al-Qaeda, with current DCI John Brennan saying in 2010 “They train together, they plan together, they plot together. They are almost indistinguishable.”  Nevertheless, for the most part the TTP acts mainly within Pakistan itself, and past attacks on foreigners have been rare. Indeed, despite the terrorism at times endemic to parts of the country, terrorist attacks on foreigners as a whole have remained unusual, with this incident reportedly the worst in over a decade.

However, in this instance foreigners were deliberately targeted. The attack was reportedly in retaliation for the death of Wali-ur Rehman, a senior TTP commander and spokesman killed with six associates by a US drone strike on 29^th May. It appears that the TTP has recently established a subsidiary organisation, reportedly named Junood-ul Hifsa, with the goal of targeting foreigners in Pakistan in response to drone strikes. The attack at Nanga Parbat was explicitly connected with this new faction.

Reaching the base camp requires at least an 18 hour trek by foot or mule, suggesting this attack required a level of premeditation and planning as opposed to being an opportunistic or random incident. Despite mass detentions of porters and guides, and the apparent identification of the individuals responsible (local militants reportedly trained in the FATA), the perpetrators of this attack remain at large in the wilderness of northern Pakistan.

The region in which this occurred, Gilget-Baltistan, is a very remote self-governing province under the administrative control of Pakistan since the First Kashmir War in 1947 – 1948. Despite its connections with the on-going Kashmir dispute, and the activities of some militant nationalist groups, Gilget-Baltistan has remained broadly peaceful.

Nanga Parbat is an extremely popular destination for climbers, with upwards of 50 foreign mountaineers either preparing to ascend or on the mountain itself at the time of the attack, who have all now been evacuated. Multiple foreign tour operators have reportedly cancelled expeditions, with some commentators believing this incident could cripple Pakistan’s already weak tourism industry.

If, as claimed, this incident represents the beginning of a new strategy of targeting foreign citizens in Pakistan in response to drone strikes and other military action, it is extremely concerning indeed. With many foreign mountaineers and similar flocking to remote parts of the Himalayas in the summer months, they remain particularly exposed and vulnerable to any militant activity. In light of this incident, the British Foreign and Commonwealth office currently advises against all but essential travel to Gilget-Baltistan.