MS Risk Blog

Renegade General Shuts Down Libyan Parliament

On Sunday May 18, armed gunmen loyal to renegade General Khalifa Hifter stormed Libya’s parliament and announced its suspension. In a televised statement, Colonel Muktar Fernana said, “We, members of the army and revolutionaries, announce the suspension of the General National Congress,” adding that the assembly will be replaced by the 60-member body that was recently elected to rewrite Libya’s constitution. The group then withdrew toward Tripoli’s airport on the southern edges of the city, clashing with rivals and leaving at least 66 dead. By Monday morning, fighting stopped.

Two days prior to the storming of the parliament building, Hifter’s group, using military aircraft and helicopters, targeted armed extremist militias in Benghazi. By Saturday, hundreds of residents fled their homes as clashes escalated. A spokesman for Hifter urged residents in the Benghazi districts of Al-Qawarshah, Sidi Faraj and Al-Hawari to leave their homes for their own safety. In the aftermath, the Libyan Ministry of Health said 70 people had been killed and 141 wounded.

The effort is part of Hifter’s plan, Operation “Dignity of Libya”, which calls for a large-scale campaign targeting militias and suspected extremists in Benghazi. Hifter told a local TV station, “The operation will continue until Benghazi has been cleansed of terrorists.”

Authorities have ordered Hifter to stand down, and consider his actions to be tantamount to a coup. Earlier this year, Hifter called for a military coup against Libya’s interim government but received little support. However, officers loyal to Hifter’s group, called the Libyan National Army (LNA), deny the claim because they do not believe the current Libyan parliament or their newest Prime Minister, Ahmed Maitiq, have legitimacy.

Hifter and the Libyan National Army

Hifter was an army commander under Gadhafi until the 1980s, when he defected and fled to the United States. He stayed in the US for over two decades, leading to accusations that his current actions are being supported, even bankrolled, by Washington. After the death of Gadhafi, the Libyan transitional government appointed Hifter to rebuild the Libyan military; however he was removed shortly after his appointment.

Hifter’s group, the LNA has been comprised mainly of irregular forces, however a number of Libyan army commanders have already defected to join Hifter’s troops. Last week, troops at a military air base in Tobruk reportedly joined Hifter’s forces, and on 19 May, the top commander of the Libyan elite al Saiqa Special Forces announced that his troops had joined forces with the LNA. Some battalions of the border guards have also declared for Hifter. The move is indicative of the rift in the military, with some being loyal to the interim government and others seeking a different solution.

In addition to military support, Hifter appears to have the support of one of the country’s most powerful militias from the western Zintan region. A number of tribes across the east and west have also formed an alliance with Hifter, as have separatists seeking more autonomy for eastern Libya  Hifter is seeking support from tribes in the centre and south of the nation in order to succeed in stopping extremists throughout the nation.

Anti-Hifter Response

In response to the attack on parliament, Libyan head of the legislature Nouri Abu Sahmein ordered the Libyan Army and pro-parliament militias to deploy in Tripoli to resist what he called “the attempt to wreck the path of democracy and take power.” The majority of these militias are based in Misrata. Online footage has depicted hundreds of pickup trucks mounted with anti-aircraft guns, tanks and armoured vehicles making their way into the capital.

Also opposing Hifter are extremist groups, including the al-Qaeda inspired militant group, the Lions of Monotheism. In a video posted on extremist websites, a masked militant calling himself Abu Musab al-Arab, vowed to fight Hifter’s troops, saying, “You have entered a battle you will lose.” Some of the extremist groups Hifter is targeting, particularly Ansar al Sharia, are based in the east.

Warnings Issued

Following the fighting in Benghazi, Benina International Airport, 12 miles east of the city, has been shut down after unknown attackers fired rockets in the area. The head of the Libyan Army’s General Staff issued a ban on flights over the city on Saturday, saying any military aircraft would be fired on by Libyan army units and allied militia. All Egyptian and Tunisian flights to Benghazi have been suspended.

A number of foreign embassies in Tripoli have shut down, including those of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Algeria. Algeria and Egypt have also closed their borders with Libya, and the Egyptian government is contemplating evacuating Egyptian citizens.

Countries Issue Travel Warnings For Kenya as Terrorist Attack Continue

Following a wave of attacks and unrest, which have been linked to Islamist extremists, a number of countries have increased their warnings against travel to Kenya’s port city of Mombasa.  Australia, Britain and France have advised their nationals to avoid the coastal city.  These travel advisories however will also likely deal a new blow to Kenya’s already embattled tourism sector as avoiding Mombasa complicates travel to the nearby beach resorts.

Last week, Britain’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) became the latest country to warn its citizens against “all but essential travel to Mombasa,” citing “recent terrorist attacks and the continuing terrorist threat in the area.”  Australia has also updated its travel advice, urging its nationals to “reconsider their need to travel” to both Mombasa and to the capital city, Nairobi, which has also been targeted by a number of bombings in recent weeks.   Meanwhile France has advised against all non-essential travel to Mombasa city, and has urged extra vigilance during stays in the nearby beach resort of Diani, which is situated to the south of the city.

In the wake of the British Foreign Office’s heightened travel alert, officials and tour operators confirmed Friday that hundreds of British tourists were being evacuated from beach resorts near Kenya’s coastal city of Mombasa.  Special charter flights have been organized just days after Australia, Britain, France and the United States issued new travel warnings for Kenya’s coast following a wave of attacks and unrest, which has been linked to al-Shabaab militants.

Meanwhile Thomson and First Choice, which are owned by London-listed TUI Travel, Europe’s largest tour operator, has also indicated that they have decided to cancel all flights to the coastal city until November 2014.  A statement released by Thomson and First Choice stated “as a result of the change in FCO advice, the decision has been taken to cancel all our outbound flights to Mombasa, Kenya up to and including 31 October,” adding “as a precautionary measure, we have also taken the decision to repatriate all customers currently on holiday in Kenya back to the UK.”

In the wake of these new warnings, the Kenyan government has expressed “disappointment” and has accused countries that are telling tourists to stay away of “unfriendly acts.”

On Thursday, Kenya’s Foreign Ministry gave an angry response to the warnings.  A statement released by the Kenyan government stated that “the advisories…are obviously unfriendly acts coming from our partners who have equally borne the brunt of global terrorism and no doubt understand the repercussions of terror,” adding “issuance of such travel advisories only plays to the whims of bad elements in society whose aim is to spread fear and panic.”  Last month, Kenyan officials confirmed that the number of foreign visitors to the country, which is a top safari and beach destination, had declined by 11 percent in 2013.  The current year is expected to also see a massive drop, particularly in the wake of the September 2013 attack on the Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi, which was claimed by al-Shabaab.

Despite opposition from the Kenyan government, the threat of terrorist attacks in Kenya remains high, as evidenced by the latest attack, which was carried out on Friday.

Kenya’s National Disaster Operation Centre confirmed Friday that at least ten people have been killed and seventy others wounded in two explosions that occurred in a busy market area of Nairobi.  According to officials at the center, the first blast occurred on a 14-seater matatu, or public minibus, while the second occurred inside Gikomba Market, which is situated to the east of Nairobi’s central business district.  Sources have indicated that two people have been arrested near the scene of the explosions.

President Goodluck Jonathan Cancels Trip to Chibok

Despite announcing earlier this week that he would visit the town where more than 200 schoolgirls were abducted, Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan confirmed Friday that that he has cancelled his trip to Chibok, a move that is likely to anger the Nigerian public and further derail his potential re-election bid.

Sources earlier this week indicated that President Goodluck Jonathan would stop in Chibok, located in north-eastern Nigeria, while on his way to a conference in France, which is set to focus on the on going threat from Boko Haram militants.  However on Friday, a senior government official indicated that the president, who is under pressure over his government’s failure to rescue the girls, will fly directly to Paris, citing that the visit was called off for security reasons.  The president will take part in a summit in Paris convened by French President Francois Hollande.  The leaders of Nigeria’s neighbours, including Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger, are also scheduled to attend the summit on Saturday, which will also include representatives from the EU, UK and US.  A statement released by the French President’s office indicated that the delegates will “discuss fresh strategies for dealing with the security threat posed by Boko Haram and other terrorist groups in west and central Africa.”  The cancellation of this visit also underlines just how fragile the security situation is in the north-east despite the on-going military operations, which were launched last May.  It is also likely to result in further criticism of the president.

The cancellation of the President’s visit to Chibok comes days after the Nigerian government ruled out negotiations with Boko Haram, over a possible release of prisoners.  At a meeting on Wednesday, UK Africa Minister Mark Simmonds indicated that President Jonathan had “made it very clear that there will be no negotiation.”

State of Emergency Extended

On Thursday, the lower house of Nigeria’s parliament, the House of Representatives, approved an extension of the state of emergency in the north eastern states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe.  Earlier this week, President Jonathan had requested a six-month extension, calling the security situation in the region “daunting” and stating that he was concerned by the mounting loss of life among civilians.  The state of emergency, which still needs to be approved by the Senate, effectively provides the military with widespread powers such as detaining suspects, imposing curfews and setting up roadblocks.

The announcement of the extension of the state of emergency came as reports of fresh attacks by suspected Boko Haram militants emerged on Thursday.  Witnesses have reported that there had been explosions in Gamboru Ngala, where some 300 people were killed last week in a massacre that has been blamed on Boko Haram militants.

Poppy Cultivation grows in the Absence of Tourism in Sinai

In the absence of tourists in the Sinai Peninsula, Bedouins are becoming increasingly involved cultivating poppies to produce raw opium for income. Poppies have been cultivated in Egypt for decades, conducted by a minority of residents. In the aftermath of the Arab spring, more desperate

Prior to 2011, Egypt’s tourism industry employed 3.7 million people. Egyptian Bedouins in Sinai were among those employed in the tourism industry in Sinai for decades; offering historical tours, camel rentals, and Bedouin experience holidays. However in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, the number of tourists has shrunk considerably, causing a sever decrease in tourism jobs. Between 2011 and 2013, tourism revenues have been reduced by over 50%. The first quarter of 2014 has already seen a 43% decrease from the previous year.

At the earliest stages of the Egyptian revolution, the Sinai became a lawless place as heavily armed residents drove security forces almost completely out of the region. Over the years since Mubarak’s ouster, tourists have been replaced slowly by militant groups seeking shelter in the absence of security forces, particularly in North Sinai. Egyptian Bedouins who were normally hired within the tourism industry found their opportunities –and incomes– shrinking.

Bedouin tribes have already suffered marginalisation by the Egyptian government. In the absence of gainful employment or support from Cairo, many have turned to poppy cultivation as a means of income. It is not a decision they wilfully make; one Bedouin man, father of four, asserts that it is “illegal, dangerous, and shameful.” Further, the income from the risky endeavour is low. Many of the Bedouin would prefer to raise legitimate fruits or vegetables, but the government has been unwilling to give them the mandatory permits necessary to raise such crops. So in its place the Bedouins raise the poppies. The harvested raw opium is not processed into heroin in Egypt; rather it is sold in its raw form on the black market. The raw opium is smoked or absorbed by placing it under the tongue.

Since 2013, the Egyptian Armed forces have returned to the Sinai, focused on an extensive campaign to eliminate terrorist cells in the region. As a secondary effect, forces have identified and burned hundreds of acres of poppies. The problem remains, however, that development plans for legal cultivation of crops are on hold until the peninsula regain stability, and anti-drug campaigns are sporadic.

Some Bedouins have been offered the opportunity to return to their ancestral income of cultivating herbs and honey. However, some fear that overproduction of the commodities could drive their price down and result in diluted profits. So far, only 60 families in the Sinai have returned to this business, and all await the return of tourists in the region.

Nigeria Ready to Hold Talks with Boko Haram

Despite previously indicating that the Nigerian government would not negotiate with Boko Haram militants, on Tuesday, cabinet minister Tanimu Turaki stated that Nigeria is ready to talk to the Islamist militants in a bid to release the more than 200 schoolgirls who were abducted one month ago.  The decision comes just one day after a video of Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau was released.  In the 27-minute video, Shekau states that captured girls who had not converted to Islam could be swapped for jailed fighters.

As the schoolgirls begin their second month in captivity, Nigeria’s cabinet minister Tanimu Turaki, who is the special duties minister and chairman of a committee established by President Goodluck Jonathan and tasked with finding ways of reaching an agreement with Boko Haram, stated Tuesday that if Shekau was sincere, he should send people he trusted to meet the standing committee on reconciliation.  He has added, “dialogue is a key option” in bringing the crisis to an end and that “an issue of this nature can be resolved outside of violence.”

Tuesday’s announcement by the government’s cabinet minister demonstrates that the Nigerian government appears to be changing its stance in relation to dialogue with the militant group.  The Nigerian government had initially suggested that there would be no negotiations with Boko Haram, however with increasing national and international pressure to locate the girls, who are believed to have been split up into smaller groups, it appears that the government is now looking at all the options in a bid to secure their release.

In terms of a possible prisoner swap, such arrangements have been organized before.  In July 2013, one of the wives of Boko Haram’s leader Abubakar Shekau was released, along with the wives of other top commanders.  Nigerian authorities have jailed several commanders, thousands of alleged fighters as well as wives and children fighters, all of which could be used to negotiate the release of the girls.

On Monday, a new Boko Haram video emerged, showing about 130 of the girls wearing hijabs and reciting Koranic verses.  The governor of northeastern Borno state, Kashim Shettima, has indicated that those seen in the 27-minute video have been identified as the abducted schoolgirls from Chibok Secondary School.

While the more than 200 schoolgirls on Wednesday began their second month as Boko Haram hostages, lawmakers in Abuja are set to debate a request from President Goodluck Jonathan for a six-month extension to a state of emergency, which was first imposed in three northeastern states exactly one year ago.   Given the apparent lack of progress in curbing the violence, after the state of emergency was imposed on 14 May 2013, President Jonathan is currently facing calls to explore a negotiated settlement.  Despite initial gains from a surge of troops in the states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, tighter security along with measures including curfews and cutting the mobile phone networks appear to have been lost.  Attacks have increased in the rural areas of the northeast, resulting in mounting civilian casualties.  This year alone more than 1,500 civilians are estimated to have been killed.  The Nigerian government has now been urged to improve its counter-insurgency tactics, including an increase in the use of intelligence, instead of just conventional means to defeat the militant fighters.  Sources have also indicated that the head of the US Africa Command, General David Rodriguez, met with Nigeria’s top brass in Abuja on Monday in order to discuss the search as well as the overall military cooperation.