MS Risk Blog

Libyan Government no longer in control of Tripoli

4 September, 2014: On Sunday, the Libyan government announced that it no longer had control of Tripoli. A government issued statement read, “Ministry and state offices in Tripoli have been occupied by armed militias who are preventing government workers from entering and are threatening their superiors.” Fajr Libya has called on the outgoing government– the Islamist dominated General National Congress (GNC) – to resume operations.

The announcement comes nearly two weeks after Fajr Libya (Dawn of Libya), an Islamist militia group from Misrata, announced the capture of Tripoli International Airport after over a month of fighting. Prior to the capture, the airport, and the city of Tripoli were under the control of Al-Zintan Revolutionaries’ Military Council, a pro-government group and one of the largest and most disciplined militia groups in Libya. Fajr Libya’s capture of Tripoli effectively gave the group control of the seat of the nation, which has had serious implications for Libya’s faltering government.

The fighting between Zintan and Fajr Libya, which began in July, has caused significant damage to Tripoli airport and a number of aircraft. The airport has been closed since mid-July. Prior to the fighting at the airport, the Libyan Airlines fleet included seven Airbus 320s, one Airbus 330, two French ATR-42 turboprop aircraft, and four Bombardier CJR-900s. Afriqiyah Airways held three Airbus 319s, seven Airbus 320s, two Airbus 330s, and one Airbus 340.

The oil-rich nation is at risk of becoming a failed state as competing militias and terrorist groups are able to take advantage of the weakened political and security infrastructures. The fighting has caused a number of diplomats, NGOs and foreign nationals to evacuate Libya, often through its borders with Tunisia and Egypt.

Neighbouring countries fear that Libya could become a safe haven for terrorist organisations. Recent airstrikes have been conducted against Fajr Libya, and have been attributed to a joint operation between Egyptian and the United Arab Emirates. The UAE has not commented on the strikes, and Egyptian President Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi has vehemently denied the claims but has suggested that suggested that military action is being considered. US Secretary of State John Kerry announced last week that the US would be delivering Apache attack helicopters to Egypt. The U.S. is taking a more conservative role in the country, but it is not known whether the helicopters would be used on objectives in Libya.

Unconfirmed rumours have gained traction that an Islamist militia group in Libya has reportedly taken control of eleven commercial jetliners in Tripoli. The report was said to have been initially issued by a Moroccan military expert named Abderrahmane Mekkaoui, who reported the airline theft on 21 August. In the report, Mekkaoui states that “credible intelligence” indicated the Masked Brigade “is plotting to use the planes in attacks on a Maghreb state” on the 9/11 anniversary. Rumours of the stolen plains are gaining traction in social media, however neither the US State Department nor any other government has confirmed the reports of the stolen jetliners.

Al-Shabaab Leader “Likely” Killed in US Operation

The United States military on Tuesday confirmed that it carried out air strikes in Somalia, which targeted the leader of al-Shabaab.

On Wednesday, a US security source reported that the death of the leader of al-Shabaab in a US air strike carried out Monday night is a “very strong probability,” however still unconfirmed. According to the source, “there is a very strong probability that he is dead…. This requires verification on the ground, which is not simple.” A senior Somali security official has echoed this comment, stating “we believe that the Shabaab leader is dead, though we don’t have his body. Most probably he is dead.” The source further indicated that he believes that al-Shabaab is currently “talking about a successor” however Somali security officials are “…still assessing the situation.”

On Tuesday, officials at the Pentagon confirmed the operation, which was carried out by US Special Forces using manned and unmanned aircraft, however they noted that it remained unclear whether al-Shabaab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane was hit.  Abdukadir Mohamed Nur, governor of southern Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region confirmed, “the Americans carried out a major air strike targeting a gathering by senior al-Shabaab officials, including their leader….” According to Mr Nur, although al-Shabaab fighters had largely fled the area in the face of the AMISOM offensive that began Friday, the US airstrikes targeted al-Shabaab commanders as they gathered for a meeting “…to discuss the current offensive in the region.” A spokesman for al-Shabaab has disclosed that Godane was in one of two vehicles hit by the US military strikes. While the spokesman confirmed that six of the group’s fighters were killed in the attack, which occurred 240 km (150 miles) south of the capital Mogadishu, he did not confirm whether Godane was among those killed. According to Abu Mohammed, the group’s leader had been travelling in the convoy, which was on its way to the costal town of Barawe, however he has refused to confirm whether Godane was among the victims.

On Monday, local citizens reported hearing three loud explosions and seeing black smoke rise from the area of the attack. Others have reported that there was a brief exchange of fire that occurred immediately after the explosions took place. Local residents also reported that shortly after the US strikes, a number of masked Islamic militants arrested dozens of people who they suspected of spying for the US, and searched a number of nearby homes.

Monday’s attack came just hours after a senior US army commander visited Mogadishu, where he held talks with Somali military chiefs. It also comes at a time when African Union (AU) troops and Somali government forces have launched new operations to push al-Shabaab out of the remaining areas they control. Sources have indicated that the troops are now closing in on the coastal city of Barawe, which has been the main stronghold of al-Shabaab since they were driven out of Kismayo in 2012. The US strikes also come just one day after al-Shabaab attacked a detention centre in Mogadishu in an apparent effort to free other militants detained there.

If Godane has been killed, his death will likely deal a significant blow to the militant group. According to Navy Rear Adm. John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, Godane has no heir apparent and his death would be a “significant blow” to al-Shabaab’s organization and abilities. Some however believe that Godane’s death could also lead to a complete shift in the group’s ideology, noting that they may abandon its association al-Qaeda and align itself with another terrorist group in a bid to garner more international attention. While last September, al-Shabaab gained international notoriety after its militants attacked the upscale Westgate Mall in Nairobi, Kenya, killing at least 67 people, in recent months, the militant group’s activities have largely been overshadowed by those carried out by Nigeria’s Boko Haram and the Islamic State (IS) group in Syria and Iraq. With the death of Godane, some commanders may look towards putting in place a new leader that will garner momentum and international attention for the militant group.  There are also reports of a rift within al-Shabaab over which global terror group to align with. Godane’s death, if confirmed, could lead to further splits within the group.

Godane, 37, was reportedly trained in Afghanistan with the Taliban and took over the leadership of al-Shabaab in 2008 after then chief Adan Hashi Ayro was killed by a US missile attack. Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri has recognized Godane as the head of the “mujahedeen” in East Africa, however letters released after Osama Bin Laden’s death have indicated that the Islamist leader had a lower regard for al-Shabaab’s capabilities. Godane is one of the US State Department’s most wanted men, with a US $7 million (£4.2 million) reward for his capture.

In recent years, the US has carried out a number of air strikes in Somalia, targeting those areas controlled by the militant group. In January, a missile strike killed a high-ranking intelligence officer for al-Shabaab while last October, a vehicle carrying senior members of the group was hit in a US attack that killed al-Shabaab’s top explosives expert.

Fiji peacekeepers held hostage in Syria, Demands Issued

On 24 August, al Nusra Front, a Syrian-based militant group, stormed the Quneitra crossing on the border between Israel and Syria in the Golan Heights. A day later, the insurgents kidnapped 45 Fijian UN peacekeepers. The hostages are currently being held at an undisclosed location the Golan Heights.

Al Nusra has posted a statement online, claiming that the peacekeepers “are in a safe place and in good health, and everything they need in terms of food and medicine is given to them.” The statement was accompanied by a photo, believed to be the captured Fijians in their military uniforms, along with 45 identification cards. The soldiers were part of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), and were stationed in a buffer zone to monitor a 1974 ceasefire agreement between Syria and Israel.

On 2 September, the Fiji government has released he list of demands that have been made for the safe return of the peacekeeper hostages. Fijian Army Chief Mosese Tikoitoga states that the rebels have made four demands:

• The militants want al Nusra front removed from the United Nations list of terrorist organisations
• They seek humanitarian aid for a town outside of Damascus, which is an al Nusra stronghold.
• They demand compensation for three fighters who were recently injured

Unconfirmed reports add that the insurgents have also demanded the release of an al-Qaeda leader, Abu Mussab al-Suri (a.k.a. Mustafa Setmariam Nasar). Al-Suri is an al-Qaeda leader who is currently being held in Syria. He was initially arrested in Pakistan in 2005.

The UN Security Council has condemned the kidnapping and called for the immediate and unconditional release of the hostages. A United Nations negotiations team has landed in the Golan Heights to negotiate with the militants for the return of the hostages, whose location is unknown. Apart from the online statement, the al Nusra kidnappers have provided assurances of the hostages’ safety to the Fiji government, adding that the victims had been taken away from combat areas.

Several nations, including Austria, Japan, and Croatia, have withdrawn peacekeeping forces in light of deteriorating security as the Syrian war rages on, amplified by militant groups combating one another for regional primacy. Tikoitoga believes that rather than pulling out forces, the there should be an increase in forces in Syria, adding, “We will not make any recommendations of pulling out from the UN or any other engagement, because our contribution to UN peacekeeping – if we don’t want to do this, then who else in the world would want to do this?”

Filipino Peacekeepers Escape to Safety

In the Philippines, the government has also decided they will not renew peacekeeping operations in the region following the attack on 75 Filipino peacekeepers over the weekend. On Thursday, the Al Nusra rebels seized the Fijian peacekeepers and surrounded two UN encampments with Filipino troops, demanding they lay down their weapons and surrender. The forces refused, and by Saturday both encampments were engaged in fighting with the rebels. At the Breiqa encampment, over 35 peacekeepers were escorted to safety by Irish and Filipino forces with armoured vehicles.

The remaining 40 Filipino peacekeepers at the Rwihana encampment were surrounded by over 100 militant gunmen attempted to enter the base, where approximately 40 Filipino peacekeepers had been stationed. The gunmen attempted to force entry into the camp by ramming the gates with trucks and firing mortar rounds. The Filipino contingency returned fire in self-defence. Fighting lasted for approximately seven hours, interspersed with Syrian government forces firing upon the militants from a distance, in an effort to distract the militants. Shortly after midnight on Sunday, a ceasefire took hold. The UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) states that the remaining 40 peacekeepers fled the encampment in the cover of night and “arrived in a safe location one hour later.” There were no Filipino casualties in the fighting. The evacuation has been dubbed “The Great Escape”.

Defying Orders

According to the UN peacekeeping mandate, UN peacekeepers must only use force as a last resort. If peacekeepers are acting in self-defence, they ‘may use force at the tactical level, with the authorization of the Security Council.”

The Philippine military, seeks the investigation of a U.N. peacekeeping commander in the Golan Heights who asked Filipino troops to surrender to the al Nusra rebels. Filipino General Gregorio Pio Catapang defied the commander’s orders, telling the 40 Filipino peacekeepers not to lay down their arms.

The UN commander of the UNDOF, whose name has not been released, was overseeing talks with the militants who had captured the Fijian peacekeepers. Catapang refused to agree to any resolution that would put Filipino troops in grave danger. He added, “I told them not to follow the order because that is a violation of our regulation, that we do not surrender our firearms, and, at the same time, there is no assurance that you will be safe after you give your firearms […] Our stand is, we will not allow our soldiers to become sacrificial pawns in order to save the Fijians. They should look for other ways and means to save the Fijians.”

Catapang seeks an investigation in order for the UNDOF commander to explain his request for surrender, while simultaneously allowing the Philippine military to explain why the peacekeepers were told to defy orders. The Philippines have announced that they will not deploy a new contingent when their stint expires in October. Their decision to withdraw has further weakened UN peacekeeping operations in a region where rising militant attacks have caused several nations to remove troops.

New Peace Talks Set to Begin in Algiers

On Monday, a second round of peace talks between the Malian government and separatist militias will begin in Algiers. The talks are aimed at ending a conflict that has continued over this past year despite the country’s efforts to return to a democracy. The two groups signed an interim agreement in June last year, which effectively paved the way for nationwide elections, however since President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was elected to power, negotiations have stalled and northern Mali has seen a spike in violence by Islamist and separatist militants.

According to sources, the talks will be based on a “roadmap” that was agreed to by the different sides in July. The talks will be overseen by a “college of mediators,” which includes Algeria, the African Union (AU) and the 15-member regional bloc ECOWAS. A “college of facilitators” will be made up of delegates from France, Niger, Nigeria and the European Union. While former Prime Minister Modibo Keita, who is the president’s envoy at the talks, has disclosed “this time in Algiers, participants will get to the bottom of their problems and, it is to be hoped, come to an agreement,” Mali’s Prime Minister Moussa Mara has suggested that despite the government willing to make concessions, a “red line” has been set, noting that Mali’s territorial integrity and secular status will not be up for discussion. While there currently is no set deadline, negotiations between the Malian government and separatist militias are expected to last weeks with the claim for special legal status expected to be the main sticking point.

In the weeks prior to these talks, rival factions amongst the rebels, including members of the MNLA, HCUA, the Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA), the coalition of the People of Azawad, which is a sub-division of the MNLA, along with a vigilante movement in the region, met in Burkina Faso’s capital city, Ouagadougou, in order to sign a broad policy agreement that effectively ensures they will speak with one voice in Algiers. According to sources, the signatories of the document are requesting “special legal status” for their homeland in northern Mali, adding that they want official recognition of the “legitimacy of the struggle of Azawad/northern Mali for 50 years to enjoy a special status in line with the geographical, economic, social, cultural and security realities.” Although these armed groups once fought each other in northern Mali, it now appears that they are increasingly willing to unite together in order to achieve their goals and to negotiate with the Malian government.

In May of this year, clashes erupted between the Malian army and a coalition of rebels from the High Council for the Unity of Azawad (HCUA) and the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), resulting in at least fifty soldiers being killed in the region of Kidal. Although a ceasefire, which was achieved by Mauritanian leader and AU chief Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, has since been in place, the Malian government has expressed alarm over the “concentrations of armed groups” that are present in the desert region.

WHO Reports Highest Increase of Ebola Cases as Senegal Confirms First Ebola Case

The WHO indicated Friday that this past week has seen the highest increase of Ebola cases since the outbreak began, noting that this new data offers more evidence that the crisis is worsening.

In a detailed report on the outbreak released Friday, the WHO disclosed that more than 500 cases were recorded over the past week, by far the worst toll of any week so far. According to the new data, the vast majority of the cases were reported in Liberia however the agency noted that it was also the highest number of cases in one week for Guinea and Sierra Leone. Nigeria also recorded a small number of cases.

According to officials at the WHO, “there are serious problems with case management and infection, prevention and control,” noting that the “situation is worsening in Liberia and Sierra Leone,” as neither of those countries has enough space in treatment centers to handle the tremendous and increasing number of cases. The region where the three most affected countries meet remains the epicenter of the outbreak, as nearly two-thirds of all cases have been reported in the area. The recent spread of the virus into densely populated cities is also now causing concern, with Monrovia, Liberia’s capital city, particularly being hit hard.

The new data comes just one day after the UN health agency warned that the outbreak in West Africa was accelerating, and that it could eventually infect as many as 20,000 people. So far, it has killed more than 1,500 of the 3,000 people it has infected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone. The UN health agency also disclosed Thursday that it assumes that in many of the hard-hit areas, the actual number of cases may be two to four times higher than is currently being reported.

Meanwhile Senegal on Friday confirmed the country’s first Ebola case. During a news conference, Health Minister Awa Marie Coll Seck confirmed that the case was a Guinean national who had arrived from the neighboring West African country, where the deadly virus was first detected in March. According to officials, the man was immediately placed in quarantine. Senegal, which is a major hub for the business and aid community in West Africa had recently closed its border with Guinea in a bid to prevent the deadly virus from spreading. It is now the fifth West African country to be affected by the outbreak.