MS Risk Blog

2014 Ebola Outbreak – Security Review for Travellers and Companies in West Africa

Summary

The current Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa is the most severe in terms of the number of human cases and fatalities since the virus was discovered in 1976. Cases of the virus have been confirmed in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone. On 25 August, the Democratic Republic of Congo confirmed two Ebola deaths however officials believe the cases are unrelated to the outbreak in West Africa.

On 8 August 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) formally designated the outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. This designation invokes legal measures pertaining to disease prevention, surveillance, control and response.

The WHO has announced that the current Ebola outbreak is likely to continue for another six months before it is completely contained.

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD)

Genus Ebolavirus is a virological taxon that is included in the Filoviridae family (filovirus), order Mononegavirales. Genus Ebola virus comprises of five distinct species in which four of these cause the EVD in humans: Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV); Ebola virus, formerly known as Zaire virus (EBOV); Reston ebolavirus (RESTV); Sudan ebolavirus (SUDV); Taï Forest ebolavirus (TAFV).

The five known virus species are named for the region where they were originally identified. Although Bundibugyo, Reston, Zaire, and Sudan ebolavirus have been associated with the large Ebola virus outbreaks in Africa, Zaire ebolavirus is the virus with the highest mortality rate of the ebolaviruses and is responsible for the largest number of outbreaks of the five known members of the genus, including both the first documented outbreak in 1976 and the outbreak with the most deaths (2014).

Symptoms

EVD is a severe acute viral illness that is often characterized by the sudden onset of fever (greater than 38.6°C/101.5°F), intense weakness, muscle pain, severe headache, abdominal pain, lack of appetite and sore throat. This is then followed by vomiting, diarrhoea, rash, impaired liver and kidney function, and in some severe cases, both internal and external bleeding. The incubation period, which is the time interval between infection with the virus to the onset of symptoms, is 2 to 21 days however symptoms commonly appear between 8 – 10 days.

The virus is believed to originate in fruit bats, which carry and spread the virus without being affected. EVD is believed to occur after the ebolavirus is transmitted to an initial human by contact with an infected animal’s body fluids. Human-to-human transmission occurs via direct contact with bodily fluids, including blood, faeces and sweat. Transmission can also occur by touching an infected deceased person during embalming, or by contact with contaminated medical equipment, particularly needles and syringes. Spreading of the virus through air has not been documented. People are infectious as long as their blood and secretions contain the virus.

Laboratory tests must be carried out in order to confirm an Ebola virus diagnosis as the virus displays similar symptoms to malaria, typhoid fever, shigellosis, cholera, leptospirosis, plague, rickettsiosis, relapsing fever, meningitis, hepatitis and other viral haemorrhagic fevers. Samples taken from possibly infected patients pose an extreme biohazard risk; therefore testing should be conducted under maximum biological containment conditions.

Treatment

No specific treatment for EVD is available and the disease has a high risk of death, killing between 50% and 90% of those infected with the virus. Severely ill patients require intensive supportive care. ZMapp is an experimental biopharmaceutical drug that is currently under development as a treatment for EVD. It has been given to several patients infected with the virus however it is not widely available. 

2014 West Africa Ebola Virus Outbreak

Unlike previous Ebola outbreaks, which have occurred in isolated areas, the current West Africa epidemic erupted in places where there is more traffic, trade and freedom of movement, effectively making it easier for the disease to spread. Myths about the Ebola outbreak have also made combatting the disease more difficult.

Guinea

Guinea was the first nation to report cases of Ebola in the current outbreak. Researchers believe that the first Ebola case emerged in late 2013 however it was not reported, nor confirmed, to international authorities until March 2014. This lag period effectively enabled measures to not be enacted and resulted in the outbreak spreading throughout the country and then into Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Land borders with Liberia, Senegal and Sierra Leone have been closed. Health screenings at all border crossings have been set up and all travellers displaying a fever, or EVD-like symptoms, will be subject to quarantine and/or denied entry, or exit, from the country. Expect to experience delays at land border crossings. Enhanced screening measures have been introduced for outbound passengers at Conakry airport.

Hospital response and isolation/treatment centres:

• Conakry: MSF is running the ETU in Donka Hospital
• Gueckedou: MSF treatment centre in Guinee forestiere
• Macenta: The WHO and MOH have set up a transit centre. Confirmed EVD patients are transferred to Conakry or Gueckedou for treatment.
• Telimele: The MSF treatment centre in Basse-Guinee was closed in July after no new cases were reported for twenty-one days.

Due to the Ebola outbreak, general medical facilities throughout the country are currently under strain and are unable to provide the same standard of healthcare as in Western countries. Dedicated healthcare facilities for Ebola are also under pressure.

Liberia

Liberia has experienced two Ebola outbreaks in 2014. The first was reported in late March in Foya district, Lofa county. The virus later spread to Monrovia and Margibi and by early April, cases were reported in Nimba and Bong counties. Although in mid-April, suspected or confirmed cases were reported in six counties: Bong, Grand Cape, Moount, Lofa, Margibi, Montserrado and Nimba, by mid-May there were no reports of new suspected or confirmed cases. The country at this time was on track to declare the outbreak over. Although 42 days passed with no new cases reported, at the beginning of June, suspected cases were again reported in Lofa county. This effectively launched a second outbreak of the deadly virus, with cases being reported in Foya and Monrovia.

The Liberian government has declared a state of emergency and since 20 August, security forces are enforcing a nationwide curfew. Between 9PM and 6AM every night no movement is allowed anywhere in the entire country. Liberian authorities have set up road blocks in a bid to restrict movement around the country while security forces have been deployed in order to enforce quarantine for certain areas, including Lofa county. In Monrovia, the army and police have sealed off the neighbourhood of West Point with the area being placed under quarantine. There have been a number of outbreaks of violence, with civilians rioting at hospitals and attacking health workers.

All borders of Liberia have been closed, with the exception of major entry points, including the Roberts International Airport and James Spriggs Payne Airport. The Bo Waterside Crossing to Sierra Leone remains closed along with the Foya Crossing to Guinea. Any remaining border crossings may be closed with minimal notice. The Liberia Airport Authority has introduced enhanced screening measures for both inbound and outbound travellers at airport facilities.

Hospital response and isolation/treatment centres:

• Foya, Lofa County: Borma Hospital Ebola Treatment unit is being run by MSF.   It has a capacity of 40 beds, with expansion to 80 beds currently underway. A mid-level isolation unit has been established in Telewowan Hospital, Voinjama. It is also managed by MSF. The centre will expand to 40 beds however no estimated date for completion has been set.
• Monrovia: ELWA Hospital Ebola Treatment Unit (ETU) is run by MSF. The new 120-bed facility was opened on 17 August. There are plans to expend it to 300 beds by 2 September. The facility in JFK hospital is functioning as a full ETU.
• Montserrado: West Point holding unit has been established.
• Nimba: Renovation of the holding facilities at G.W. Harley and Ganta Hospitals is underway as of 20 August.
• Bong: As of 22 August, a new ETU is being constructed however it has not been determined how the clinic services will be run.
• Bomi: Bomi county Health Team (CHT) opened three, two-room, quarantine units with a 12-bed capacity.

The Ministry of Health and Social Welfare has established hotlines for the public to get basic information on Ebola: Call 0770198517 or 0777549805 or 0886530260 or 0886549805.

General medical facilities throughout the country are currently under severe strain as a result of the Ebola outbreak. Dedicated healthcare facilities for Ebola are overwhelmed and may not accept further cases.

Nigeria

Nigeria’s first Ebola case was an imported one. In July a Liberian man, Patrick Sawyer, flew from Monrovia, Liberia to Lagos, Nigeria, via Lome, Togo, despite displaying Ebola-like symptoms. He arrived in Nigeria on 20 July and died five days later while in quarantine. In response to his death, which was later confirmed to have been the result of Ebola, the Nigerian government placed all of those who had contact with the man under observation.  All confirmed Ebola cases have been linked to Mr Sawyer. On 28 August, Nigerian authorities confirmed that a doctor has died from Ebola in the south-eastern city of Port Harcourt. This is the first case of the deadly virus to be reported outside of Lagos.

On 8 August 2014 Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan declared a national state of emergency. Since then, the Nigerian government has introduced measures for passengers departing from and arriving at all airports.

Hospital response and isolation/treatment centres:

• Lagos:   Infectious Disease Hospital, Yaba, has an isolation facility for Ebola cases.
• Delta State: Seven hospitals have been identified to be isolation centres for Ebola Cases. These include Warri Central Hospital; Ughelli Central Hospital; Sapele Central hospital; Agbor Central Hospital; Oleh Central Hospital; Eku Baptist Government Hospital and Delta State University Teach Hospital Oghara.
• Niger State: A quarantine centre is being established in Minna, with containment centres being established in the three Senatorial districts.

Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone’s first Ebola case occurred in late May, in Kailahun district near the border of Guinea. The deadly virus later spread to Port Loko district and then to Kenema, Kono and the Western Area. Kenema and Kailahun have been the most affected areas. Ebola affects twelve out of thirteen districts in Sierra Leone however the epicentres of the deadly disease are in the Eastern Province, near the borders with Guinea and Liberia.

On 30 July, President Koroma declared a state of public emergency, which is expected to last between 60 – 90 days. This measure effectively enables the military to enforce quarantine zones, restrict public movements and limit public gatherings. There is currently a nationwide ban on public gatherings. Increased restrictions on movement of people and vehicles have been placedin the districts of Kailahun and Kenema. All land borders with Guinea and Liberia have been closed. Health screenings have been introduced at all border crossings and all travellers displaying a fever or EVD-like symptoms will be subject to quarantine and/or denied entry, or exit, from the country. Over the weekend of 25 – 27 July, reports emerged that demonstrations and local disturbances had occurred in Kenema and Freetown and were related to the Ebola outbreak. Further such demonstrations cannot be ruled out at this time.

Hospital response and isolation/treatment centres:

• Kenema: The isolation facility in Kenema Government Hospital is to be relocated outside the township of Kenema, a few miles from Hanga. All new cases will be treated at the centre in Kailahun until the new facility is open. The Red Cross is establishing a new facility, with officials reporting on 22 August that it is expected to be functional soon.
• Kailahun: There is an 80-bed facility that is operated by MSF. The villages of Koindu and Buedu have referral units, where patients displaying symptoms of Ebola are isolated and evaluated for the disease. If it is determined that they have Ebola, they are then transferred to the isolation facility.
• Freetown: An isolation unit has been established at Connaught Hospital.
• Bo: MSF is constructing a 35-bed isolation centre that is expected to be functional by 28 August. A transit centre in Gondama is run by MSF.
• Western Area: A holding facility is being established in Lakka and a facility is being constructed in Kerry Town. Monrovia: ELWA Hospital ETU is run by MSF. The new 120-bed facility was opened on 17 August. There are plans to expand it to 300 beds by 2 September

Democratic Republic of Congo

Authorities in the DRC have confirmed two deaths related to the Ebola virus. Officials have disclosed that two of eight samples from the northwest Equateur province have come back positive for the deadly disease, with officials believing that Ebola has killed 13 people in the region, including five health workers. An epidemic has been declared in the region of Djera, in the territory of Boende in the province of Equateur. Officials however believe that the infections are of a different strain to those in the outbreak in West Africa.   One of the two cases tested positive for the Sudanese strain of the disease, while the other tested positive for a mixture between the Sudanese and the Zaire strain. The outbreak in West Africa is due to the Zaire strain.

 Ebola Myths and Impact on Outbreak

A number of myths that have materialized over the past few months have greatly impacted the spread of the current outbreak. In turn, a lack of understanding about what causes Ebola and how it is passed on has effectively resulted in the region developing into a fertile ground for speculation and mistaken beliefs.

Officials at the WHO have confirmed that the already difficult conditions are made more difficult by public misunderstanding caused by “rumours on social media claiming that certain products or practices can prevent or cure Ebola Virus Disease.” In Nigeria, at least two people died as a result of drinking salt water after stories circulated that doing so would protect against the deadly disease. Other supposed cures for the virus include raw onions, coffee, condensed milk and holy water. Some civilians have opted to hide infected family members at home, or prefer to take them to local doctors instead of to an Ebola treatment centre. Health officials in Sierra Leone disclosed in August that the Ebola outbreak spread from Guinea after an herbalist in the remote eastern border village of Sokoma claimed to have powers to heal the deadly virus. Officials have confirmed that the virus spread in Sierra Leone after cases from Guinea crossed over the border, seeking treatment.

Fears over the deadly virus have also sparked riots and attacks on health workers. As the Ebola outbreak continues, such attacks may spark similar reactions to those carried out against polio workers.

At the start of the outbreak, a team from MSF had to stop working at an isolation ward in Guinea after local residents mistakenly believed that they had brought the virus with them. Groups of health workers from MSF, the Red Cross and from the ministry of health have been pelted with rocks as they attempted to reach Ebola-hit areas. In Liberia, a number of Ebola patients escaped a healthcare facility after it was attacked by rioters.

Due to the region’s recent history of bloody civil war, some believe that the army’s deployment to control the affected areas is a sign that the government is deliberately infecting people in a bid to have an excuse to enforce martial law.

Economic Impact

While the Ebola epidemic has been an urgent health crisis, it has also had a devastating impact on the economies of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Due to travel restrictions, and a growing fear of human contact, markets and shops throughout Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone have been forced to close, leading to the loss of income for producers and traders. The Ebola crisis has also resulted in many people moving away from the affected areas, which in turn has disturbed agricultural activities.  Road blocks and quarantines manned by police and military have prevented the movement of farmers and labourers as well as the supply of goods, resulting in the cost of farm produce doubling in a matter of weeks. Officials at the UN are now warning of a looming food crisis in eastern Sierra Leone because of the acute shortage in farm labour.

Tourism within the affected countries and regionally has also been directly impacted. Despite WHO officials advising against suspending flights to the affected region, several airlines have temporarily suspended flights to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone while a number of airlines have opted to suspend flights to regional countries where no Ebola cases have been reported. In early August, Korean Airlines chose to suspend flights to and from Kenya in a measure aimed at preventing the spread of the Ebola virus. The closure of borders and the suspension of flights have had a detrimental effect on trade as the move has severely limited the ability of countries to export and import goods. A number of foreign companies have chosen to withdraw non-essential personnel.  Some mining companies in the region have imposed travel restrictions on their workers, deferred new investments and cut back their operations.

The Ebola epidemic has had a severe impact on the three West African nations, especially Liberia and Sierra Leone, which are still in the process of emerging from civil wars and are attempting to rebuild their economies.

Forecasts of economic growth in the region have been reduced as the outbreak has strained the finances of a number of governments. An initial World Bank-IMF assessment for Guinea projected a full percentage point fall in GDP growth from 4.5 percent to 3.5 percent. While Liberia’s economy had initially been expected to grow by 5.9% this year, the country’s Finance Minister has disclosed that this was no longer realistic as the Ebola crisis has slowed down the transport and service sectors and has resulted in the departure of a number of foreign workers. Sierra Leone’s Agriculture Minister has also disclosed that the country’s economy has deflated by 30% because of the Ebola outbreak, noting that the agricultural sector was the most impacted as 66% of the country’s population are farmers.  On 26 August, the African Development Bank disclosed that the worst-ever Ebola epidemic could cut the economic output of Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and the Ivory Coast by between 1 percent and 1.5 percent of gross economic product.

 Advice for Companies/Employees in Affected Regions

MS Risk currently advises all to reconsider their need to travel to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. This is due to the current Ebola outbreak, the challenges in containing it, the limited emergency care options that are available and the increasing travel restrictions, which have significantly reduced the freedom of movement throughout the region. MS Risk advises all those in the affected countries to consider leaving while limited commercial flights continue to operate.

MS Risk advises all travellers and those working in the affected countries to closely monitor the advice provided by local health officials and the WHO. MS Risk advises all to maintain strict standards of hygiene, including following strict hand washing routines; avoiding contact with symptomatic patients and their bodily fluids; avoiding contact with corpses and/or bodily fluids from deceased patients; avoiding contact with any objects that may have been contaminated with bodily fluids. Travellers should also avoid close contact with live or dead animals and should not eat or handle raw or undercooked animal products, such as blood and meat. Travellers should avoid consumption of bush meat. All companies should be aware of the symptoms of Ebola and should brief all workers. Whenever possible, companies should implement screenings for workers, especially in highly affected areas. These include enforcement of regular hand washing routines and the measuring of temperature. If an employee develops symptoms, he/she must be quarantined immediately and a healthcare provider must be contacted.

A number of airlines have changed or suspended flights to West Africa as a result of the Ebola outbreak. These include:

• Arik Air and Gambia Bird – Suspended services to Liberia and Sierra Leone
• Asky Airlines – Suspended flights to and from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
• Air France – Suspension of flights to Freetown, Sierra Leone beginning 28 August.
• British Airways – Suspended flights to Liberia and Sierra Leone until the end of this year.
• Ceiba Intercontinental – Suspended flights to West African countries
• Emirates Airlines – Suspended flights to Guinea
• Kenyan Airways – Temporarily suspended flights from Liberia and Sierra Leone into Nairobi
• Korean Airlines – Suspended flights to and from Kenya
• Royal Air Maroc and Brussels Airlines are still operating however on modified routes and schedules
• Delta continues to operate as normal however the airline is due to cease flying to Monrovia, Liberia at the end of August.

Libya Update: 28 August, 2014

On 24 August, a group called Fajr Libya (translation: Dawn of Libya) an Islamist militia group from Misrata, announced the capture of Tripoli International Airport after over a month of fighting. The airport’s capture effectively gives them control of the nation’s capital.

Since the 2011 fall of Libyan dictator Moamar Gadhafi, Tripoli and its airport had been under the control of the government-allied liberal Zintan militia, one of the largest and most disciplined militia groups in Libya. The capture of the region served as a huge blow to the Zintan militia and the government. Fajr Libya has also announced their control of cities adjacent to Tripoli, adding that they have pushed Zintan nearly 60 miles out from the capital.  The weeks of fighting in Tripoli have seen the worst violence in the country since 2011, destroying large parts of the airport and causing chaos in the city. Many diplomats, NGOs, foreign nationals and Libyan citizens have evacuated the country.

Early on 24 August, fighters from Fajr Libya also attacked the Tripoli-based studios of private television station Al-Assima, which supports the Zintan nationalists. The militiamen destroyed station equipment and kidnapped some of the staff, according to Al-Assima.

Government Turmoil

Fajr Libya’s capture of Tripoli International Airport effectively gave the group control of the seat of the nation, which has serious implications for Libya’s faltering government. The group has refused to recognize the transitional Libyan government that was elected in June. Rather, Fajr Libya has called on the outgoing government, the Islamist dominated General National Congress (GNC) to resume operations. The militant group summoned the GNC to meet in Tripoli.

This action essentially created two rival and hostile centres of government power, both of whom consider the other to be illegitimate. Mohamed Bouyassir, a senior adviser to the Libyan army, said there could be “two parliaments and two governments.” The western government would be dominated by Islamists, including members the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, a militia group that has been designated as a terrorist organization by the US and was sanctioned by the UN. Supporters of the GNC government  have been accused of “rejecting the democratic process,” calling the GNC “remnants of the post Gadhafi leadership who were refusing to surrender their hold on power.” One official adds that under the GNC, state funds were diverted to Syria and Iraq, and that “the whereabouts of huge amounts of money were not known to anyone apart from them.”

In the East, the government would be controlled by the House of Representatives (HoR), which was elected in June to replace the GNC, reportedly to put an end to political dominance by factions linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. The House of Representatives has fled to Tobruk in eastern Libya to conduct government operations; among the first orders of business was their declaration of Fajr Libya as a terrorist organization. The HoR is relying on support from ‘rogue’ General Khalifa Hiftar’s and his Libyan National Army (LNA) to combat the militants in the region. On 24 August, the Tobruk government issued a statement calling the LNA “the official army of the state.” The statement represents a huge shift; the GNC had accused Hiftar’s group of attempting to stage a coup. The LNA has focused primarily on combating militias in Benghazi; however they claim to have launched a series of airstrikes against Fajr Libya fighters. The LNA is reportedly increasing their capabilities in hopes of restoring national security.

Adding to the friction, on 25 August, the GNC appointed a new prime minister over Libya. The group elected Islamist-backed Omar al-Hassi as prime minister, a parliamentary spokesman and lecturer in political science at the University of Benghazi. Hassi has been charged with forming a “salvation government”. Local television stations reported that 94 politicians attended the meeting, a sufficient number for quorum.

Mysterious airstrikes, Egyptian proposal

Further complicating matters, airstrikes by unidentified warplanes have struck the positions of Islamist militias in Tripoli, killing 13 fighters. The Fajr Libya militia accused Cairo and United Arab Emirates of being behind the airstrikes. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi has vehemently denied those claims, adding, “There are no Egyptian aircraft or forces in Libya, and no Egyptian aircraft participated in military action inside Libya.” Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukri echoed Sisi’s denials, calling the accusations “unsubstantiated rumours,” and adding that Egypt “respects Libya’s popular will and elected parliament.” Emirati officials have not commented.

Despite the denials, Western officials believe that the airstrikes were conducted in a joint Egypt-UAE effort. In a joint statement, the United States, Britain, France, Germany and Italy cautioned, “outside interference in Libya exacerbates current divisions and undermines Libya’s democratic transition.” Though the statement did not directly accuse any country of the airstrikes, one anonymous official said that Washington was aware of the plans for an Egyptian-Emirati operation and warned the countries against following through. The US said they had no prior notification of the attacks, nor do they believe it was conducted with authorisation from the Libyan government.

Meanwhile on 25 August, a day after the accusation of airstrikes against Tripoli, the Egyptian government presented a proposal to disarm rival militias in Libya. The proposal was backed in a Cairo-based ministerial meeting with leaders from Algeria, Tunisia, Sudan, Niger and Chad. All attendees agreed to back Libya’s “legitimate institutions, especially the parliament”, including in the rebuilding of the country’s military and police.

In a press conference after the meeting, Shoukri said, “The initiative reached a number of governing principles, the most important of which is respecting Libya’s unity and sovereignty, rejecting any intervention in its domestic affairs, abiding by a comprehensive dialogue, renouncing violence, and supporting the political process.”

The Egyptian proposal, which will be submitted to the United Nations and the Arab League, provides a framework for Libyan militias and armed factions to gradually lay down their arms. It adds that foreign parties should refrain from exporting and supplying the “illegitimate factions” with weapons, and foreign intervention “should be avoided.”

Libyan lawmakers, for their part, have voted to ask the United Nations to intervene in the ongoing militia battles. Libyan Ambassador to Egypt, Faid Jibril said, “Libya is unable to protect its institutions, its airports and natural resources, especially the oilfields.” Leaders in Libya have also added that they do not necessarily require military intervention; Foreign Minister Mohamed Abdelaziz called on assistance in training Libyan troops in order to prepare the Libyan army to combat the armed elements. Further, they seek international assistance in preventing the violence from spreading to other nations.

Boko Haram Claims Creation of Islamic Caliphate

In a new video made public on Sunday, Boko Haram’s leader has claimed to have created an Islamic caliphate in a northeastern Nigerian town that was seized by the militant group earlier this month. While the declaration is in line with the militant group’s desire of carving out an Islamic state in Nigeria, the timing of the announcement was likely prompted by the recent attention garnered by Islamic State (IS) militants in Iraq and Syria.

In the new 52-minute video, Abubakar Shekau states “thanks be to Allah who gave victory to our brethren in the town of Gwoza and made it part of the Islamic caliphate,” adding that Gwoza, in Borno state, now has “nothing to do with Nigeria.” Earlier this month, the United Nations humanitarian office (OCHA) confirmed reports that Gwoza was under the control of the rebel group. While Boko Haram is now believed to be in control of other areas near Gwoza, in southern Borno, as well as large swathes of territory in northern Borno state and at least one town in neighboring Yobe state, mapping the precise areas that have fallen under the control of the Islamist militants will be nearly impossible as there are few humanitarian workers on the ground in the northeast, travel to the region remains dangerous and there is poor mobile phone coverage.

Links to IS

Boko Haram’s declaration of a caliphate in Nigeria has drawn comparisons with a similar declaration that was made by IS in June. While Boko Haram desires to create an Islamic state, it is believed that this premature declaration is a move to remain relevant in the region and in competition with IS.

Recent gains achieved by IS likely inspired Shekau’s statement, as the militant group has garnered international headlines in recent months by seizing parts of Iraq and Syria in a brutal onslaught. While global focus had initially been placed on Boko Haram’s widely condemned kidnapping of more than 200 schoolgirls in April, in recent months, much of that focus has shifted to the territorial ambitions of IS despite Boko Haram continuing to carry out nearly daily attacks in northeastern Nigeria. Furthermore, in the wake of a video released last week depicting the brutal murder of American journalist James Foley, the United States has described IS as the strongest-ever Islamist threat with its “apocalyptic end of days” ideology, a statement that has further taken attention away from the Nigerian-based militant group, which in comparison, is believed to be a modestly-funded uprising that is composed of poor youths with minimal tactical training. Although Boko Haram has carried out a brutal five-year campaign, by evoking a Nigerian caliphate, Shekau is likely attempting to remain relevant and to raise his own profile in the region, rather than submit to like-minded extremists in the Middle East.

While Shekau has on previous occasions expressed support for IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghadi, and has congratulated IS on its advances in Iraq and Syria, this new video shows no indication from Shekau that he was associating himself with Baghdadi. Furthermore, there is no evidence that the two groups have been working together. Instead, it is likely that the Nigerian militant’s latest video is an attempt at reminding regional governments and the West that Boko Haram is as powerful a threat as IS.

Boko Haram’s declaration of an Islamic caliphate is inline with the militant group’s ideology, as it has long voiced a desire to create a strict Islamic state within mainly Muslim northern Nigeria. The timing of the announcement however is directly influenced by IS’ activities. Boko Haram had previously declared that they should overrun the entire country prior to declaring an Islamic republic, a belief that was reflected in the manner in which they expanded their area of activity. In the wake of a state of emergency in the states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, coupled with the launch of a military offensive, Boko Haram had slowly moved out of the city centers, and into the rural areas of northeastern Nigeria. They have also successfully carried out attacks in Abuja this year and have crossed over the porous border into Cameroon. However in recent weeks, Boko Haram has taken over a number of towns in Borno state, a move that demonstrates a shift from hit-and-run tactics to an apparent holding strategy. It is likely that after watching IS’ gains in Iraq and Syria, and the impact this has had on the group’s global attention, Boko Haram’s plan of achieving its goal are now taking on a more gradual approach.

What remains evident is that Boko Haram is closely monitoring IS operations, its gains, what impact it has on the global stage and how the militant group may be able to benefit. Boko Haram is likely to continue to mirror IS moves in the coming months, continuing to take over areas of northeastern Nigeria and possibly releasing brutal videos similar to those released by IS.

Nigerian Soldiers Refuse to Deploy to Fight Boko Haram Militants

Dozens of Nigerian soldiers have refused to deploy for an upcoming offensive against Boko Haram militants, stating that they will not adhere to military orders until the receive better equipment and weaponry.

 On Wednesday, a number of Nigerian troops revealed that they had been ordered to move out of their barracks in the north-eastern city of Maiduguri towards the Gwoza area of Borno state, where the insurgents have reportedly seized parts of the territory. One soldier disclosed, “we have vowed not to move one inch until our superiors provide us with all necessary weapons to effectively confront and dislodge Boko Haram, who have far better arms.” The troops have indicated that they have set up a camp on the outskirts of Maiduguri. While Defence Ministry spokesman Chris Olukolade indicted Wednesday that there was no mutiny in Borno, stating that Nigerian soldiers “are too disciplined and patriotic to indulge in this dangerous offence,” he did not categorically deny that some of the troops had refused to follow military orders, stating only that any such move by soldiers must be “properly tried in a military court” before it can be classified as a mutiny.

Although the Defence Ministry has repeatedly claimed that “no soldier has been sent on any mission without being armed,” over the past several months, a number of Nigerian soldiers have come forward, stating that the ill-equipped forces were being gunned down by Islamist fighters who were equipped with heavy firepower. Some officials and independent experts have backed these accusations, noting that Boko Haram fighters are better armed than Nigerian troops. One such official is Borno state Governor Kashim Shettima, who was fiercely criticized by the military after he made a similar statement in February. Residents in towns raided by the Islamist militants have also reported that the insurgents are often armed with rocket-propelled grenades and anti-aircraft weapons mounted on trucks and that in some cases they have armoured personnel carriers. In contrast, Nigerian soldiers have at times reportedly lacking ammunition for their AK-47 rifles and have been sent out to the bushlands to fight the militants without basic communication equipment.

Earlier this month, several military wives staged a protest at the gate of a military base in Maiduguri in an attempt to stop their husbands from deploying to Gwoza until they were properly equipped. President Goodluck Jonathan recently requested that Nigerian lawmakers approve a US $1 billion foreign loan that would be utilized to upgrade the capacity of the military. While parliament did not vote on the bill, as it was announced a day before summer recess, many see the President’s request as a tact acknowledgement that his military is being out-matched by the militants.

PKK and the battle against ISIS

The battle against ISIS has created strange bedfellows.  Most recently, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has joined the fight against the militants. The PKK is formally classified as terrorists due decades of fighting against Turkey for an independent Kurdistan. The conflict killed over 40,000 people between 1984 and 2013. Today, the PKK is working on the same side as Turkey to stop the advance of ISIS, while simultaneously lobbying the international community to remove their terrorist designation.  The group has claimed their determination to work with other governments and groups to see the elimination of ISIS.  One PKK fighter said, “This war will continue until we finish off [ISIS).”  Another stated, “ISIS is a danger to everyone, so we must fight them everywhere.” The PKK’s role in battling ISIS presents a mixed bag for Turkey and the international community. While the group is still considered a terrorist threat, and the PKK has accused Turkey of funding fighters against the Kurds in Syria; an allegation that the Turkish government denies. Yet, they are the ‘lesser’ threat in the face of ISIS. PKKs efforts have been successful in fending ISIS off from Erbil, and have sent forces to Kirkuk and Jalawla. Their armed sister group, the People’s Defence Units (YPG) have successfully protected their autonomous region in Syria, and assisted in evacuating thousands of Yazidis from Mount Sinjar, where they had fled from ISIS. The evacuees had been trapped out the mountain with minimal food or water, relying on airdrops for supplies. However, PKK members are not fighting for Turkey, Syria, Iran or Iraq; they are fighting for Kurdistan, a state which is seeking autonomy for lands that cross each of these nations. Further, the PKK represents a threat to the existing Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) which is a long time competitor of the PKK. For now, however, Kurdish Peshmerga, under the KDP umbrella, are working with the PKK and national forces against ISIS, which is heavily armed with weapons from abandoned stockpiles in their captured zones. However KDP leaders fear that PKK involvement in engagement against ISIS will hinder opportunities to gain national autonomy in the long run. In the short run, PKK involvement could prevent nations from sending much needed weaponry to the Peshmerga. Turkish officials have resisted addressing the significance of a resurgent PKK, or the possibility that their involvement will reignite tensions in Turkey, or between Turkey and Kurdistan. One official said, “There is no fear of a division in Turkey or a fear of unification of the Kurdish population outside of Turkey. Since there are no demands through armed conflict or violence from the PKK in Turkey, there is no need to panic.” Currently the PKK is opting for slowly decreasing national powers in the Kurdish region, eventually gaining their autonomy. Further their actions in the fight against ISIS are perceived to be a push toward persuading the international community to remove their terrorist designation. The EU, for its part, will not act without Turkish approval, which is unlikely to be forthcoming. Meanwhile in Syria, ISIS has clashed with Assad’s forces in Aleppo, and Raqqah. ISIS considers Raqqah the ‘capital’ of their state; weapons confiscated in Iraq have been steadily making their way into the city. Raqaa approximately 25 miles from a Syrian-controlled airbase at al Tabaqa, the last remaining government forces in the ISIS controlled zone. Assad’s military has carried out at least a dozen airstrikes, reportedly killing tens of ISIS fighters, and has also sent reinforcements to al Tabaqa. Analysts have differed as to the size of territory ISIS holds. Some believe ISIS has control of approximately 11,000 square miles of territory, roughly the size of Belgium. Others believe ISIS has influence in as much as 35,000 square miles of territory, roughly the size of Jordan. It is believed that 6,300 fighters joined ISIS in July. Among that number, an estimated 5,000 are Syrian, and the remaining are Arab, European, Caucasian, East Asian and Kurdish. It is believed that as many as 1,100 of the 1,300 foreign fighters entered Syria via Turkey. Among ISIS’ most recent recruits, many joined from other radicalised groups such as the al-Qaeda backed Al Nusrah Front, and the Islamic Front. Al Nusrah, the Islamic Front, and Ansar al Din are fighting a battle on two fronts: they are opposed to ISIS and opposed to Bashar al Assad, and clash with both.