MS Risk Blog

Guinea Confirms Health Workers Killed While Raising Awareness About Ebola

Days after a team of officials went missing while visiting a village in Guinea in a bid to raise awareness about Ebola, officials confirmed late Thursday that all nine members were killed by local villagers. In August, MS Risk analysts warned that attacks on Ebola workers in West Africa may spark similar reactions to those carried out against polio workers, in which a number of volunteers have been killed while administering polio vaccinations. This death of nine members of a team attempting to raise awareness about Ebola signifies that the threat to health workers and local authorities trying to combat the disease is high, and will likely intensify as the virus continues to spread. Further such incidents will be likely be reported in the affected countries. Steps to combat myths about the disease, which are common across the region, must be taken in order to ensure health workers’ safety and to curb the virus’ spread.

On Tuesday the group of nine Guineans, which included two journalists, local officials and several health workers, fled the village of Wome, located in the southern Nzerekore region, after their group was pelted with stones. A journalist who managed to escape later told officials that she could hear villages looking for the group while she was hiding. On Wednesday a government delegation, led by the country’s health minister Remy Lamah, had been dispatched to the region however they were unable to reach the village by road as the main bridge was blocked.

Officials disclosed Friday that seven of the bodies were located in a septic tank in a village school near the city of Nzerekore while the other two were located in the bush.   According to officials, the bodies showed signs of being attacked with machetes and clubs. Six people have been arrested, with on the ground sources reporting that the village is now deserted. According to local police officials, at least 21 people were wounded during the unrest. While the motive for the killings has not been confirmed, it is believed that the villagers’ suspicions of officials attempting to combat the disease lead to the group being attacked and its members murdered. Many Guineans believe that local and foreign health workers are part of a conspiracy, which either deliberately introduced the outbreak, or invented it as a means of luring Africans to clinics in order to harvest their blood and organs. Some still do not believe that the disease exists despite more than 2,600 people killed by the virus.

In recent weeks, tensions have been rising across West Africa as the Ebola epidemic continues to rise. A number of incidents of frustrated civilians attacking local officials have been reported however this is the first incident in which officials were killed for attempting to combat the deadly virus. Last month, riots erupted in Nzerekore, Guinea, 50 kilometres (30 miles) from Wome, after rumours emerged that medics who were disinfecting a market were contaminating people. There have also been a number of reports of people in the region refusing to cooperate with health authorities over fears that a diagnosis means certain death.

Myths such as these have emerged over the past few months and have greatly impacted the spread of the current outbreak. Officials at the World Health Organisation (WHO) have confirmed that the already difficult conditions are made more difficult by public misunderstand caused by “rumours on social media claiming that certain products or practices can prevent or cure Ebola Virus Disease.” Such myths have not only impacted Guinea, but other countries, including Nigeria, where at least two people died as a result of drinking salt water after stories circulated that doing so would protect against the deadly disease. Other supposed cures for the virus include raw onions, coffee, condensed milk and holy water. Some civilians have opted to hide infected family members at home, or prefer to take them to local doctors instead of an Ebola treatment centre. Health officials in Sierra Leone disclosed in August that the Ebola outbreak spread from Guinea after an herbalist in the remote eastern border village of Sokoma claimed to have powers to heal the deadly virus. Officials have since confirmed that the virus spread in Sierra Leone after cases from Guinea cross over the border, seeking treatment.

Fears over the deadly virus have also sparked riots and attacks on health workers. As the Ebola outbreak continues, such attacks may spark similar reactions to those carried out against polio workers.

At the start of the outbreak, a team from MSF had to stop working at an isolation ward in Guinea after local residents mistakenly believed that they had brought the virus with them. Groups of health workers from MSF, the Red Cross and from the ministry of health have been pelted with rocks as they attempted to reach Ebola-hit areas. In Liberia, a number of Ebola patients escaped a healthcare facility after it was attacked by rioters. Due to the region’s recent history of bloody civil war, some believe that the army’s deployment to control the affected areas is a sign that the government is deliberately infecting people in a bid to have an excuse to enforce martial law.

Key al-Qaeda Branches Call for Unity Against US-led Strikes on IS

Two of al-Qaeda’s most prominent branches in North Africa and Yemen issued an unprecedented joint statement Tuesday, calling for jihadists operating in Syria and Iraq to join forces against the threat emanating from the US-led coalition that is targeting Islamic State (IS) fighters in the region. The statement comes as a supporter of IS militants warned of attacks against the United States and its allies.

Al-Qaeda Branches Issue Joint Statement

Two of al-Qaeda’s most prominent branches in North Africa and Yemen issued an unprecedented joint statement Tuesday, calling for jihadists operating in Syria and Iraq to join forces against the threat emanating from the US-led coalition that is targeting Islamic State (IS) fighters in the region.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) urged their “brothers” in Iraq and Syria to “stop killing each other and unite against the American campaign and its evil coalition that threatens us all.” AQIM and AQAP have also called on the citizens of ten Arab countries that have joined the coalition to prevent their governments from acting against the terrorist group, which has recently achieved lightening territorial advances in Iraq and Syria. AQAP and AQIM have also promised “dark days” to the “alliance of infidelity and evil,” and have urged Syrian rebels to keep up their fight against President Bashar al-Assad, warning them to “beware of being tricked by America…and thus being diverted from your path” and becoming its “pawns.”

Tuesday’s joint statement however marked a significant change in al-Qaeda’s strategy as under the leadership of Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s successor, al-Qaeda disavowed IS. Both the Yemeni-based AQAP, which is seen by Washington as the network’s most dangerous branch, and AQIM have rejected IS’ June declaration of an Islamic caliphate, adding that they remained loyal to al-Zawahiri. Al-Qaeda also has its own branch, the al-Nursa front, that operates in Syria. While the network’s joint statement called for differences to be set aside in the face of a new growing coalition, the statement did not explicitly offer support for IS. Instead it is likely an attempt by al-Qaeda’s affiliates to maintain relevant in Washington and within IS. Similar statements of solidarity issued by other Islamist militant groups will likely surface as the US continues airstrikes in the region, however such statements do not necessarily mean that global support for IS is growing.

IS Supporter Warns of Attack Against US and Allies

A supporter of IS militants has warned of attacks on the United States and its allies if they continue to carry out military action against the group in Iraq and Syria. The message, which was posted on the Minbar Jihadi Media website, a well-known Islamist militant online forum, is just one of a few responses from supporters of IS to last week’s announcement by Washington indicating that it was preparing to extend airstrikes against the group into Syria.

The message condemned “intervention in the affairs of other peoples,” adding that “it will lead to an equal reaction of the same strength in targeting the American depth and also the nations allied to it and in all aspects.” The posting, by a supporter referred to as “Amir al-Thul,” also stated “I directed a sternly worded warning to each of those nations involved with America, or that are allied with it in their war against the Islamic Caliphate, that their local and international interests will be legitimate targets.”

While the message also called on the public in the US and its allies to oppose government actions against the group, it remains unclear what influence, if any, the author has on the actions of IS.

CIA revises ISIS numbers

On 12 September, a CIA assessment revealed that ISIS ranged has the capacity to muster between 20,000 and 31,500 fighters across Iraq and Syria. This number is three times higher than the previous estimates, which indicated that there were approximately 10,000 militants fighting for the group. According to the CIA, the sharp increase is the result of stronger recruitment after ISIS conducted a battlefield campaign across northern Iraq, gaining a large swath of territory and declaring a caliphate in Iraq and Syria.

The information released from the report does not appear to specify who is considered a ‘fighter’, such as women or youths. Mowaffak al-Rubaie, a former Iraqi national security adviser and current parliament member said that ISIS is targeting youths “as young as 8 and 9 years old,” giving them AK-47s and brainwashing them with “this evil ideology.” Al-Rubaie added that this was similar to the method that al Qaeda in Iraq recruited in the past, but on a larger scale.

The CIA report does not suggest whether the fighters are actually members of ISIS, or militants currently fighting against the Syrian government, but could be called upon to fight with ISIS. According to the report, approximately 15,000 foreign fighters have joined the militant group, representing some 80 countries. The number includes as many as 2,000 Westerners. Al-Rubaie estimates that among foreign fighters, Iraqis and Syrians comprise over 70%, adding that “thousands” of Iraqis joined ISIS after their capture of Mosul in June.

It is believed that many fighters have crossed into ISIS-controlled territory in northern Iraq through Turkey. It is expected that they could permeate the borders of Lebanon, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, causing elevated national security threats in those nations.

The revised estimate of fighters comes after a series of unmanned reconnaissance flights over the region. The US has increased the number of surveillance flights to nearly 60 per day over Iraq, in order to gather intelligence regarding whether and where to launch airstrikes in the region. The Pentagon has also announced it would begin “armed and manned” flights for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance purposes. The crafts would fly from the Kurdish regional capital, Erbil, as supplements to the unmanned flights.

Pentagon spokesman, Rear Admiral John Kirby, said the increased estimates will not alter how the United States approaches ISIS, stating,” We’re not just simply about degrading and destroying … the 20 to 30,000 (ISIS fighters). It’s about degrading and destroying their capabilities to attack targets, particularly Western targets. It’s about destroying their ideology.” One unnamed US official said the military can launch airstrikes at any time if there is a ‘target of opportunity’. The US has already conducted over 150 airstrikes against ISIS. Additional tactics would involve targeting the group’s leadership, which the US has not yet done.

A coalition of nations has been assembled with the aim of eroding the power of ISIS, and eventually destroying the group. Nearly 40 nations have joined the coalition; however it is unknown what specific roles each nation will play. In large part, members of the coalition have agreed to send equipment and/or humanitarian aid, or conduct surveillance missions, but none have committed to putting boots on the ground. Those who are willing to engage in ground battle include Iraqi Kurdistan’s Peshmerga forces and other indigenous forces from Syria and Iraq, including trained Syrian rebels, Iraqi forces, Kurdish forces and Sunni tribes.

Within the regional vicinity, Turkey is working to cut the financial flow to ISIS, and has denied entry and deported ‘several thousand foreign fighters heading to Syria to join the extremists’. Jordan has agreed to provide intelligence to the West. It is thought that Saudi Arabia, which has already provided $500 toward UN humanitarian efforts, will also host anti-ISIS training camps. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt have been urged to use their television networks to spread anti-ISIS messages as well as encouraging clerics to speak out against the group. The Egyptian government has met with US Secretary of State John Kerry to discuss the “critical role” Egypt will play in countering ISIS ideology, however no public details have been released. Last week, Egypt’s grand mufti, the highest ranking Islamic scholar in the land, condemned ISIS and underscored that their actions are not in line with Islam. Qatar has conducted a number of humanitarian flights.

Iran has declined to join the coalition. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei tweeted that he rejected cooperating with the United States “because (the) US has corrupted its hands in this issue.” Khamanei has vocally accused the United States of planning to use military action against ISIS to “dominate the region.” The absence of Iran in the coalition may put other nations at ease; Iran has been in conflict with Turkey, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia for years.

Nations outside of the Middle East that will join the coalition include Australia, the UK, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland, Denmark, Albania, Croatia, New Zealand, Romania and South Korea.

Ugandan Officials Foil al-Shabaab Attack

The United States embassy in Uganda reported Saturday that Ugandan security forces have stopped a cell of al-Shabaab insurgents who are apparently “planning for an imminent attack.” On Monday, a Ugandan military spokesman confirmed that nineteen terror suspects were arrested over the weekend in a raid on an al-Shabaab cell that was supposedly plotting to carry out an attack in the East African nation.

A statement released by the US embassy Saturday disclosed, “Ugandan authorities reported the discovery of an al-Shabaab terrorist cell in Kampala,” noting that US officials “…remain in close contact with our Ugandan counterparts as investigations continue into what appears to have been planning for an imminent attack.”

Ugandan police spokesman Fred Enanga confirmed that forces had arrested nineteen foreigners on Saturday in connection with a foiled attack. On Monday, Lt. Col. Paddy Ankunda disclosed that police seized “substantial amounts of explosives” and suicide vests from the suspects, who are all of Somali origin.   The operations were carried out in the Kisenyi neighbourhood, which is known for its large Somali population, and targeted a hotel and a flat where the Somalis recently had moved.

In the wake of an imminent terrorist attack, US security forces have increased their patrols around major sites and have warned its citizens about travel to the country. Embassy officials have disclosed that “at this point we are not aware of specific targets, and the Ugandan authorities have increased security at key sites, including Entebbe International Airport….If you must move about, remain aware of your surroundings, avoid crowds, monitor local news stations for updates, and maintain a high level of vigilance.” The US embassy warning comes nearly a week after US embassy officials warned that al-Shabaab insurgents may try to exact revenge for a US strike that killed the militant group’s commander earlier this month. Last Monday, officials warned US citizens to “stay alert to the on-going potential terrorist attacks in Uganda…we also caution US citizens of the possibility of retaliatory attacks in Uganda by al-Shabaab in response to the US and Ugandan military actions in Somalia, which killed al-Shabaab leader Ahmed Godane.”

Uganda, which has troops fighting al-Shabaab militants in neighbouring Somalia, is currently on high alert amidst concerns that the al-Qaeda-linked militant group is planning to carry out a similar attack to the Westgate assault that occurred in Kenya last September. The country has in the past been targeted by al-Shabaab. In 2010, al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for bomb attacks that killed at least 76 people who were watching a soccer World Cup final in Kampala.

Fall of Maiduguri Likely as Boko Haram Surround Borno State Capital

Over the past several weeks, Nigeria has been rapidly losing control of large areas of the northeast to Boko Haram, which is attempting to carve out an Islamic State. With reports surfacing this week that the militant group has “completely surrounded” the city of Maiduguri, if the Nigerian military fails to carry out military operations to secure the area and reinforce the capital city, it is highly likely that Borno state, along with some areas of neighbouring Adamawa and Yobe states, will fall to the militant group in the coming weeks.

Traditional elders in Borno state warned this week that Nigeria’s militant Islamists have “completely surrounded” Maiduguri, noting that the military now needed to “fortify” the city, which has a population of more than two million, in order to prevent an assault “from all directions.” A statement issued by the Borno Elders Forum (BEF), which represents influential people in the state, including former government minsters and civil servants, has reported that Boko Haram militants have “annexed” areas that were about 50 kilometres (30 miles) from Maiduguri. The BEF has also disclosed that they are “…convinced that the Federal Government of Nigeria has not shown sufficient political will to fight Boko Haram and rescue us from the clutches of the insurgents which may ultimately lead to the total annihilation of the inhabitants of Borno,” noting “the insurgents have rendered impassable almost all the roads leading to Maiduguri.”

Boko Haram appears to be carrying out a two-pronged assault, from the northeast to the southeast, with militants likely to be reinforcing the captured areas prior to taking over Maiduguri. Boko Haram was founded in Maiduguri in 2002, making the state capital a high value target for them. Boko Haram have seized territory along at least two of the main approaches to the capital city, while their control of towns and settlements to the south and near the border with Cameroon have effectively cut off the Nigerian military, preventing them from responding quickly and carrying out operations to recapture the area. In recent weeks, Boko Haram militants have destroyed several key bridges, including one on the road from Biu to Maiduguri, a bridge near Gamboru Ngala that links Nigeria to Cameroon, a bridge in Potiskum that links Maiduguri and Damaturu to Abuja and a bridge in Yobe that links to the southern areas of Borno and Adamawa. Some of the destroyed bridges were strategically linked to Maiduguri and have now made it difficult for the Nigerian military to reinforce Maiduguri and other towns in Borno state.

Further out, in Borno, Boko Haram are believed to have seized Gamboru Ngala, Dikwa, Gwoza and Marte. Bama has also been reported captured by the militants however the Nigerian military and some locals have contested these reports. Damboa, which was seized in July, has since been reported to have been retaken. In Adamawa state, Madagali has been captured while in Yobe, Buni Yadi has been taken. Other communities in the northeastern region of Nigeria, which are believed to have been seized or heavily contested, include Banki, Kerawa, Ashigashiy, Ngoshe, Pulka and Goniri. Further seizures of towns in the area, and which border Cameroon, cannot be ruled out at this time.

Despite Boko Haram’s recent takeover of a large area of Nigerian territory, actions similar to the recent lightning advance achieved by IS militants in Iraq, Nigeria’s military has continued to deny the severity of the threat. On Friday, Nigeria’s defence ministry dismissed “alarmist” reports pertaining to Maiduguri, stating, “Security Arrangements for the Defence of Maiduguri has been upgraded to handle any planned attack.” If Boko Haram are successful in taking over Maiduguri, he fall of the state capital will mean a significant symbolic and strategic victory for the militant group, effectively enabling them to control a major city and an international airport, a victory that has not yet been seen in the militant group’s five-year insurgency