MS Risk Blog

Is Libya a Failed state?

Libya has fallen into chaos since the 2011 overthrow of long time dictator Moammar Gadhafi. On 15 October, Egyptian warplanes bombed positions in Benghazi, citing a request by the Libyan administration in Tobruk to assist in battling the militias that have overrun the country. One senior Egyptian official said, “This is a battle for Egypt not Libya.” The fear of the chaos in Libya spreading beyond its borders has caused neighbouring countries to initiate a series of defensive actions, from strengthening border patrols and evacuating citizens, to engaging in attacks. Inside Libya, the country remains paralysed as the country continues its third year of battles.

Failed states often have certain key characteristics:

• A weakened central government
• Little central control over the nation
• Rampant corruption or crime
• Involuntary movement or displacement of the population
• Economic instability or decline
• Failure to provide public services

In light of these characteristics, is it fair to argue that Libya has become a failed state?

It can easily be argued that Libya has a weak central government. On 4 September, the newly elected Libyan government announced that it no longer had control of Tripoli. Militant group Fajr Libya took control of the nation’s capital after several weeks of fighting, and recalled the outgoing government, the Islamist dominated General National Congress (GNC) to resume operations. Meanwhile, the elected government, the House of Representatives, is currently conducting operations from within a 1970s hotel in Tobruk, a thousand miles from the capital. Attempts by the United Nations to negotiate peace talks between the two rival governments came to a standstill in early October. Earlier this week, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon arrived in Tripoli to hold talks with the warring factions. A UN statement on Twitter said Ban “will urge Libyan parties to push forward with political dialogue to restore stability to (the) country.”

Currently, neither of the rival governments carries significant central control over the nation. The country has been divided along tribal groups and militia loyalties. In the east, Ansar al Sharia and other organisation have engaged in battles to create an autonomous region. General Khalifa Hifter has engaged in numerous battles to ‘eliminate’ the radicalised elements that are working to destabilise the nation’s unity. In the west, the region is battling between supporters of the outgoing GNC and the House of Representatives. In the south, clashes between clans have dominated the battles; in April, France referred to the region as a “viper’s nest” of Islamist militants.

The battles among the armed militias and their attempts to enforce dominance in various regions, has led to rampant corruption and crime. The nation has seen an uptick in kidnapping (including the kidnapping of government officials), assassination attempts, offices of businesses and the government held hostage, rampant shootings. Activist group Human Rights Watch has observed that in 2014, there have been at least 250 politically motivated assassinations in Benghazi and Derna alone. They add, “No one has claimed responsibility and there have been no known arrests for the killings. Libyan authorities have failed to conduct investigations, or prosecute those responsible for any of the unlawful killings since 2011, fostering a culture of impunity that has fuelled further abuses.” The lawlessness and clashes in major cities, has caused many residents involuntarily relocate their families to safer regions. This is particularly true in Tripoli and Benghazi.  The United Nations Human Rights Council has estimated that 287,000 people in 29 cities and towns countrywide have been displaced.

Libya has suffered steady economic decline in recent years. Several militias, as well as the rival governments are battling for control of the nation’s vast oil reserves. In 2013, the economy was frozen by blockades of oil export terminals in the East. Last month, ship operators announced that cargo imports into Libya have dropped by an estimated 75%, in large part due to the closure of banks in the nation. These closures affected the ability of Libyan importers to make payments or open letters of credit. Further exacerbating the imports are violence at ports and destinations, the absence of inland transportation, damage to warehouse facilities and the increasing cost of insurance premiums for operations in Libya. It is estimated that Libya’s budget deficit could more than double to 19 billion Libyan dinars ($15 billion) in 2014.

Finally, Libya is struggling to maintain public services including water and electricity. In August, power was cut across most Libyan cities and towns, including Benghazi and Ajdabia. Libya’s General Electricity Company said the blackouts were due to “the acute shortage of fuel supplies to generating stations in the southern areas. Major power transmission circuits which supply Tripoli and neighboring areas have been damaged as well. Other major circuits are also out of service in the eastern area.” Meanwhile, last month leaders in Sirte held an emergency meeting to discuss the shortage of drinking water.

Libya currently has a number of worrying factors, suggesting that if it is not a failed state, it could certainly become one. The UN is currently working to reignite talks between warring factions in hopes of creating a smooth transition of power between the GNC and the House of Representatives. The House of Representatives, for its part, is working to cut the budget deficit for 2015, establish a strong and loyal army, and ensure an increase of public services and a decline in crime and corruption. However, these endeavours may only become successful in the absence of armed militias and radicalised groups. Libya may lean heavily on outside support to bring it back from the brink.

Ebola Cases Continue To Rise; Nigeria and Senegal Could Be Declared Ebola-Free in Days

New figures released by the World Health Organisation on Tuesday 14 October revealed that over 8,900 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have been reported in seven affected countries: Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Spain and the United States of America. As of 14 October there have been 4,447 deaths. Health workers have been hit hard by the outbreak, with Doctors Without Borders reporting that sixteen of its employees have been infected with Ebola, in which nine of them have died. A top United Nations official warned this week that Ebola was winning the race as the WHO warned that within the next two months, West Africa could face up to 10,000 new Ebola cases per week if the outbreak is not contained.

Speaking at a news conference in Geneva, WHO assistant director-general Dr Bruce Aylward, disclosed that the death rate in the current outbreak had risen to 70 percent, from the previously estimated mortality rate of 50 percent. Acknowledging that Ebola was “a high mortality disease,” Dr Aylward noted that the UN health agency was still focused on getting six people into isolation and providing treatment to them as early as possible, adding that if the global response to the current Ebola outbreak is not stepped up in the coming sixty days, “a lot more people will die” and health workers will be stretched even further.

Experts in the field have indicated that the epidemic is doubling in size about every three weeks, with Dr Aylward indicating that over the last month, there have been about 1,000 new Ebola cases per week. This included confirmed, suspected and probable cases. Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone continue to the be the hardest-hit countries in the current epidemic, with WHO officials particularly concerned about the spread of Ebola in their capital cities – Conakry, Monrovia and Freetown – where people move freely across borders. While some regions in these countries have seen the number of Ebola cases either stabilize or fall, this does not mean that the regions are Ebola-free. Neighbouring countries, including Guinea-Bissau, the Ivory Coast and Mali are currently at a high risk of importing the disease.

The WHO also announced Tuesday that Nigeria and Senegal could be declared Ebola-free in the coming days after completing a 42-day period with no new cases. A statement released on Tuesday revealed “if the active surveillance for new cases that is currently in place continues, and no new cases are detected, WHO will declare the end of the outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Senegal on Friday 17 October.” If no new cases are reported in Nigeria, then the WHO will declare it Ebola-free on 20 October.

Senegal had one patient who was confirmed to have EVD. He has since recovered and it does not appear that anyone else was infected with the deadly disease. In Nigeria, one traveller from Liberia triggered an outbreak in which eight people died, most of them health workers.   The virus spread from the initial case in Lagos to Port Harcourt however it has since been contained with no new reported cases. The situation in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone however is far different as, according to the WHO, “new cases continue to explode in areas that looked like they were coming under control.” Adding “an unusual characteristic of this epidemic is a persistent cyclical pattern of gradual dips in the number of new cases, followed by sudden flare-ups.”

Officials at the WHO indicate that waiting for forty-two days from the time when the last person with high risk exposure has tested negative for the disease effectively provides sufficient confidence to declare that the outbreak is over. The 42-day period is twice the generally accepted maximum incubation period of the virus however some incubation periods are longer, with the WHO is indicating that in 95 percent of Ebola cases, the incubation period was between one and 21 days while in 98 percent, it was no longer than 42 days.

Twenty-Seven Hostages Released in Cameroon

Cameroon’s President confirmed Saturday that twenty-seven hostages, kidnapped earlier this year in raids blamed on Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram, have been released in Cameroon.

According to a statement released by the office of President Paul Biya, “the 27 hostages abducted on May 16 in Waza and July 27 in Kolofata were released to the Cameroonian authorities this night.” The ten Chinese citizens, and seventeen other local hostages, including the wife of Cameroon’s deputy prime minister, are all “safe and sound.”

In mid-May, a group of ten Chinese construction workers was seized from a construction camp in Waza, in Cameroon’s Far North region near the border with Nigeria, in an attack that left one Cameroonian soldier dead. While in June, Cameroonian authorities had disclosed that six people had been arrested in connection to the kidnappings of the Chinese citizens, no further information pertaining to their whereabouts was released. The seventeen locals, including Francoise Agnes Moukouri, the wife of vice prime minster Amadou Ali, were kidnapped in July during two simultaneous assaults that targeted their residence in the border town of Kolofata. A military spokesman had indicated at the time that as the fighter retreated with the hostages, they set fire to the residence, stole safes and vehicles and killed at least fifteen people. Both attacks were blamed on Boko Haram. A local religious leader who was also abducted in the July attack was amongst those released Saturday.

Cameroon shares a border of more than 2,000 kilometres (1,200 miles) with Nigeria, where Boko Haram has been waging a deadly insurgency since 2009. While the group did not specifically claim responsibility for these kidnappings, they have been involved in a number of other abductions, including the kidnapping of 200 schoolgirls from a remote village in northeastern Nigeria in April 2014, which sparked international outrage. The attacks and kidnappings in May and July also sparked concerns that the Nigerian-based insurgents were further expanding their operations into Cameroon as the government became increasingly involved in regional efforts to contain them.

While Saturday’s brief statement pertaining to the release of the hostages did not provide any details about the conditions of their release, sources have disclosed that Cameroonian authorities paid at least US $400,000 in ransom in order to secure the release of Francoise Agnes Moukouri, the wife of the Vice Prime Minister. The deal to release them was apparently reached on Thursday, three days prior to their release. According to the source, who was part of the negotiation that led to the release of the hostages, the terms of the settlement included the payment of an undisclosed sum of money from the Chinese government for the release of the ten construction workers.

On previous occasions, Cameroonian officials have indicated that the government does not pay ransoms in kidnapping cases.

Mogadishu Targeted by Three Attacks in Past 24 Hours

Just one day after a car bombing targeted a popular café in central Mogadishu another bomb tore through a senior policeman’s car on Monday, wounding at least two.

According to police major Ahmed Kassim, Monday’s attack occurred after a bomb was planted in the car of the police chief of the city’s Blacksea area, located near the busy Bakara market, with the car exploding “…as two mechanics started the engines…” to test it. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack, which wounded the two mechanics that were working on the car. The attack however is the third to occur in the capital city in the past twenty-four hours.

On Sunday, at least thirteen people were killed and eight others injured after a car bomb exploded outside a popular café in the capital city. According to a senior police official, the incident occurred near the Aroma café, located on Maka Al Mukaram road, with the bomb believed to have been detonated by remote control. Most of those killed in the attack were sitting outside the café. Somali government soldiers were deployed to the area shortly after the incident.

Just hours after the bombing at the café, suspected Islamist militants launched five shells at an area where the president was due to speak. The attack occurred in the Huriwa district, where President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was due to attend celebrations marking the anniversary of Somali receiving its flag. Officials have not reported any casualties in that incident, and the President was able to attend the celebrations once security forces cleared the area.

While no group has claimed responsibility for these attacks, al-Shabaab is likely behind them, as the militant group has vowed to avenge the death of its leader, Ahmed Abdi Godane, who was killed in September in a US airstrike. The militant group has launched a string of bomb and gun attacks in Mogadishu, and in other city centres across the country, keeping up with its promise to step up action after African Union (AIMSOM) and Somali troops pushed them out of their remaining coastal stronghold a week ago. The loss of Barawe port on 5 October also means that al-Shabaab has lost a key economic source.

While the loss of Barawe coupled with US military air strikes that killed its leader last month, have dealt a severe blow to the militant group, which has been seeking to topple the internationally-backed government and to drive out African Union peacekeepers, it remains too soon to declare a victory over the group, which is skilled at guerrilla warfare.

The latest attacks to target Mogadishu also come as United Nations investigators warn in new report that Somalia’s new government remains corrupt and that al-Shabaab militants are as deadly as ever.

The new 482-page report, put forth by the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea, disclosed, “underlying corruption as a system of governance has not yet fundamentally changed and, in some cases, arguably has worsened.” UN experts have indicated that financially, they have “consistently found patterns of misappropriation with diversion rates of between 70 and 80 percent,” adding “the indications are that diverted funds are used for partisan agendas that constitute threats to peace and security.” According to the report, a third of revenues from the capital’s busy seaport, which is a key source of income that totals millions of dollars for the internationally funded government, cannot be accounted for.

While the UN Security Council in 2013 allowed for a partial lifting of an arms embargo on Somalia, the new report discloses, “some of the weapons and ammunition have been diverted to arms markets in Mogadishu.” According to UN experts, weapons initially sent to the national army to defend the country’s internationally backed government, have instead been seen on open sale in at least one market where al-Shabaab militants are known to have purchased arms. This is particularly worrisome as al-Shabaab has begun to shift its tactics as the militant group faces sustained military assaults by the AU force and repeated air strikes, such as those that killed its chief last month.

The report warns that in the long term, air and drone strikes will achieve minimal damage to the militant group, noting, “strategic airstrikes have in general resulted in short terms gains but significantly failed to diminish al-Shabaab’s operation capacity…there is no current evidence that they have the potential to ‘degrade and destroy’ al-Shabaab.” This was particularly evidenced over this past weekend, as despite being pushed out of a key stronghold earlier this month, al-Shabaab militants were able to stage three attacks in the capital city, demonstrating that the militant group remains active in key areas across the country. Furthermore, while the loss of the port town of Barawe, including the loss of funding through the multi-million dollar trade of charcoal, will likely have some financial impact on the militant group, the trade continues unabated and militants will continue to profit as they continue to control production sites and truck checkpoints. According to UN experts, al-Shabaab have also increased their use of bombs, including the “noticeable” introduction of magnetic vehicle bombs, a tactic that was previously commonly used in Afghanistan and Iraq. The use of such car bombs in Somalia likely represents “…a transfer of battlefield knowledge to Somalia.”

Outside of Somalia, the militant group continues to pose a regional threat, as the military operations in southern and central Somalia have effectively forced al-Shabaab fighters to “become more operationally audacious by placing greater emphasis on exporting its violence beyond the borders of Somalia” and across the Horn of Africa.

2014 Ebola Outbreak – October Review

Executive Summary

Total Cases and Deaths: As of 23 September 2014 (WHO)

 3,083 people have died from Ebola in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone.  6,553 (probable, confirmed and suspected) cases.

The current Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa has not been contained, with transmission continuing to occur in both community and healthcare settings. Resistance to efforts to control the disease, including outright denials that EVD exists and fears that healthcare workers deployed to combat the virus are spreading it, have further hindered efforts to prevent the disease from spreading and have effectively resulted in the region developing into a fertile ground for speculation and mistaken beliefs. This has sparked a rise in attacks on healthcare workers, including the recent death of an eight-member team in Guinea.

Over the past several weeks, the spread of EVD in West Africa has continued to accelerate. As of 23 September 2014, a total of 3,083 people have died of EVD, with another 6,553 reported cases. While the disease remains concentrated in three countries – Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone – it has continued to spread to new regions within these affected countries. On 30 September 2014, officials in the United States confirmed the first Ebola case. The current West Africa Ebola outbreak is likely to continue for another six – nine months before it is completely contained, with World Health Organization (WHO) officials predicting upwards of 20,000 cases.

Affected countries currently fall into two categories: Those with widespread and intense transmission – Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone – and those with either an initial case or cases, or with localized transmission – Lagos and Port Harcourt in Nigeria; Dakar in Senegal; Dallas, Texas in the United States. The capital cities of Guinea (Conakry), Liberia (Monrovia) and Sierra Leone (Freetown) have all been affected by the current outbreak.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has identified three patterns of transmission:

1. In rural communities, which is facilitated by strong cultural practices and traditional beliefs;
2. In densely populated urban communities;
3. Cross-border transmission

1. Countries with Widespread and Intense Transmission

Guinea

Total Cases: As of 23 September 2014

1074 clinical cases (876 confirmed; 162 probable; 36 suspected);  648 deaths (481 confirmed; 162 probable; 5 suspected)

Current Affected Areas:  Conakry, Coyah, Forecariah, Gueckedou, Kouroussa, Macenta, Siguiri, Pita, Nzerekore, Dubreka, Youmou, Kerouane.

No Longer Active:  Boffa, Dabola, Dinguiraya, Kissidougou, Telimele

In September, the district of Kindia reported its first confirmed case of EVD. While there have been a number of other areas across the country that have not reported any new cases of EVD, currently there is no indication of a sustained reduction in case incidence in Guinea.

In mid-September, eight people, involved in Ebola awareness-raising activities, were killed near Womey, near the town of Nzerekore in the Forest region of Guinea.   Police officials in the region have confirmed that the team was targeted on suspicion that they were attempting to spread the virus. In a separate incident on 24 September, a Red Cross team was attacked while collecting bodies believed to be infected with Ebola in south-eastern Guinea. Further such incidents in the coming weeks are likely to occur.

Land borders with Liberia, Senegal and Sierra Leone have been closed. Health screenings at all border crossings have been set up and all travellers displaying a fever, or EVD-like symptoms, will be subject to quarantine and/or denied entry/exit, from the country. Expect to experience delays at land border crossings. Enhanced screening measures have been introduced for outbound passengers at Conakry airport.

Liberia

Total Cases: As of 23 September 2014

3458 clinical cases (914 confirmed, 1539 probable, 1005 suspected);  1830 deaths (792 confirmed; 623 probably; 415 suspected)

 Current Affected Areas:  Lofa, Montserrado, Margibi, Bomi, Bong, Grand Cape Mount, Nimba, Grand Bassa, Grand Gedeh, River Cess, River Gee, Sinoe, Gbarpolu, Grand Kru

Liberia remains the most-affected country in the current Ebola outbreak. The number of newly reported cases continues to rise on a week-to-week basis. This is primarily driven by a continuation of a recent surge in cases in the capital city, Monrovia, coupled with a lack of capacity in Ebola treatment centres.

In September, six confirmed cases of EVD and four deaths were reported in the district of Grand Kru, a rural area located near the border with the Ivory Coast. This is the first time the EVD cases have been reported in this area of the country.

Since 20 August, a state of emergency has been in place, with security forces enforcing a nationwide curfew. Between 11PM and 6AM every night no movement is allowed anywhere in the entire country. Liberian authorities have set up road blocks in a bid to restrict movement around the country while security forces have been deployed in order to enforce quarantine for certain areas, including Lofa county. In Monrovia, the army and police have sealed off the neighbourhood of West Point with the area being placed under quarantine. There have been a number of outbreaks of violence, with civilians rioting at hospitals and attacking health workers.

All borders of Liberia have been closed, with the exception of major entry points, including the Roberts International Airport and James Spriggs Payne Airport. The Bo Waterside Crossing to Sierra Leone remains closed along with the Foya Crossing to Guinea. Any remaining border crossings may be closed with minimal notice. The Liberia Airport Authority has introduced enhanced screening measures for both inbound and outbound travellers at airport facilities.

The Ministry of Health and Social Welfare has established hotlines for the public to get basic information on Ebola: Call 0770198517 or 0777549805 or 0886530260 or 0886549805.

General medical facilities throughout the country are currently under severe strain as a result of the Ebola outbreak. Dedicated healthcare facilities for Ebola are overwhelmed and may not accept further cases.

Sierra Leone

Total Cases: As of 23 September 2014

2021 clinical cases (1816 confirmed, 37 probable, 168 suspected);  605 deaths (557 confirmed; 37 probable; 11 suspected)

Current Affected Areas:  Kailahun, Kenema, Kono, Kambia, Bombali, Tonkolili, Port Loko, Pujehun, Bo, Moyamba, Bonthe, Western Area

EVD cases in Sierra Leone continue to increase. Transmission remains high in the capital city, Freetown, and in the surrounding urban areas. Although over the past several weeks the number of newly reported cases in the districts of Kailahun and Kenema appear to have stabilized, a number of other districts have reported an increase. These include Port Loko, a district adjacent to Freetown, Bo, Bombali and Tonkolili.

Between 19 – 21 September, the Sierra Leonean government imposed a three-day nationwide shutdown. During this period, civilians were required to remain in their homes while Ebola awareness teams were deployed across the country to search for possible EVD patients. The government has since deemed the programme a success, adding that further such shutdowns may be implemented in the near future.

2. Countries with Initial Case/Cases or Localized Transmission

Three countries, Nigeria and Senegal and most recently the United States, have reported a case or cases imported from a country with widespread and intense transmission.

Nigeria

Total Cases: As of 23 September 2014

 20 clinical cases (19 confirmed; 1 probable; 0 suspected); 8 deaths (7 confirmed; 1 probable)

Current Affected Areas:  Lagos and Port Harcourt

While Nigeria has not reported any new EVD cases since the first week of September, the country has not been deemed Ebola-free however the spread of EVD has been contained. All EVD cases in Nigeria occurred in Lagos and Port Harcourt.

Nigeria’s first Ebola case was an imported one and all cases in the transmission chain have been linked to a single person. Contact tracing and follow-up is on-going. In Nigeria, 847 contacts (out of a total of 872) have now completed the 21-day follow-up (349 contacts in Lagos; 498 in Port Harcourt). The last confirmed case in Lagos was reported on 5 September while the last confirmed case in Port Harcourt was reported on 1 September. In Lagos, all contacts have completed the 21-day follow-up.

Senegal

In Senegal, all contacts have now completed the 21-day follow-up and there have been no further reported cases of EVD. The last confirmed case of EVD was reported on 28 August. While the country has not been confirmed to be Ebola-free, the spread of EVD has been contained.

United States

Total Cases: As of 23 September 2014

1 Confirmed Case; 0 deaths

Current Affected Areas:  Dakar

On 30 September, officials confirmed the first Ebola case in Dallas, Texas. Officials have confirmed that the unidentified male patient is being kept in isolation at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital. It is believed that the man contracted the virus in Liberia prior to travelling to the US nearly two weeks ago. He arrived in the US on September 20. Symptoms of the virus became apparent on September 24 and the patient was admitted and placed in isolation on 28 September. While previously US aid workers have come back to the US, after catching Ebola in West Africa, this is the first case of a patient developing the virus on US soil. Health officials are currently identifying all people who came into contact with the unnamed patient while he was infectious. Those people will then be monitored for a period of 21 days.

Ebola Outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

Total Cases: As of 24 September 2014

70 clinical cases (30 confirmed; 26 probable; 14 suspected); 40 deaths

Current Affected Areas:  Equateur province

An epidemic has since been declared in the region of Djera, in the territory of Boende in the province of Equateur. Officials however believe that the infections are of a different strain to those in the outbreak in West Africa.   One of the two cases tested positive for the Sudanese strain of the disease, while the other tested positive for a mixture between the Sudanese and the Zaire strain. The outbreak in West Africa is due to the Zaire strain.