MS Risk Blog

Kosovo 2008 or 2015?

Since Kosovo’s declaration of independence in 2008, the country has been fighting an internal struggle, baited with ethnic division, corruption, organized crime, and political wrangling. The newly independent state has progressed in the past seven years. Yet, with its seven year birthday looming this month, it would seem that the country, with its continued international supervision and expected future EU accession, is not through the ethnic hatred of its past. Moreover, it would not be difficult to suppose that ethnic division, which led to the death and displacement of thousands in 1999, could potentially derail the country’s future. The dawn of 2015 saw Kosovo’s largest protests since 2008. And it all began with the ethnically charged comments of a government official.

On January 6 2015, the ethnic tension between the majority Albanian and minority Serb populations came to a head. During the Serbian Orthodox Christmas, around 100 Albanian protesters rallied against Serbian pilgrims who were traveling from Belgrade, Serbia, to visit an Orthodox Church in Gjakova. Many of those who rallied against the pilgrims were women who had lost family members in the 1999 Kosovo conflict. The pilgrims consequently called off their visit after their route was blocked and their buses pelted with Ice by the ethnic-Albanian protesters. To put it into context, the location of Gjakova was the scene of heavy fighting in Kosovo’s 1999 conflict. Following both heavy military and civilian bloodshed in Gjakova, the once ethnically mixed town is now a majority ethnic Albanian. The relatively small clash between the Serbs and Albanians at the beginning of January 2015 is far from an isolated incident in Kosovo. Nonetheless, it became the fuel for a series of violent protests in Kosovo.

Following the altercation between the Serbs and Albanians in Gjakova, Serbian Minister for Communities and Returns, Aleksandar Jablanovic, of the recently elected Isa Mustafa’s government, responded by calling the protesters “Savages”. His comments were followed by a public apology days later, in which Jablanovic apologized to the mothers and relatives of war victims for his comment. However, Jablanovic’s statement reopened deep wounds of ethnic hate in Kosovo. National-scale protests for his dismissal swiftly followed.

The protests began on January 16 and concluded in the largest and most violent protest in Kosovo’s independent history on January 27. The protests, comprised of thousands of people, took place across Kosovo, but primarily in the capital, Pristina and were organized by the nationalist opposition movement, Vetëvendosje. Over the course of the protests, police officers were forced to use tear gas and deploy water cannons on protesters as they threw stones, bricks, Molotov cocktails, and damaged government and private property. They carried Albanian flags and chanted “out with Jablanovic”, “Down with the government”. Protesters also attacked journalists who were attempting to report on the fierce demonstrations. Hundreds of protesters and police were injured in the violent clashes, which were for the large part, situated in and around Pristina’s famous Mother Teresa Street. The protests themselves were organized primarily to demand the dismissal of the Kosovo-Serb minister. However, Prime Minister Mustafa’s freshly elected government became an additional source of national dissatisfaction. Protesters also gathered to record their frustration with what they believe is the outgrown role of Serbia in Kosovo’s present and future. Supported by Vetëvendosje, the protesters called for Kosovo’s Prime Minister to carry out the nationalization of the Trepça mining complex. The nationalization of the Trepça mining complex, which is rich in lead, silver, and zinc, has always been met by Serbian contempt. Serbia firmly advocates its claim to the mine, as a result of Belgrade’s management of it during the final Yugoslav years. Subsequently, Mustafa’s dawdling nationalization of the mine has been perceived as not just an economic knock to Kosovo’s future, but also a grave disrespect to Kosovo’s national pride, which Kosovo Albanians fought so hard to achieve.

The run of violent protests during January has now concluded with the dismissal of Minister Jablanovic. Yet, the storm is far from over in Kosovo. The threat of further protests for the nationalization of the Trepça mining complex still remains. What is more, the ramifications of the public movements against the government and a government official are a stark reminder of the national pride felt by the ethnic Albanian majority. They are also a stark reminder of the underlying (most of the time) and constant ethnic division in Kosovo.

Boko Haram Launches First Attack on Niger

Witnesses reported Friday that Nigeria’s Boko Haram militant group has attacked a town in neighbouring Niger for the first time.

The attack targeted the Nigerien border town of Bosso, which is located just across the border from Nigeria. Fighting broke out around 9:00 AM (0800 GMT). According to one resident, locals “…can hear the sound of weapons all around the town…” adding “there is the noise of heavy weapons and of light arms, making our houses shake.” Yacouba Soumana Gaoh, governor of the regional capital of Diffa confirmed the attack, stating that troops pushed back the attack by the end of the morning, adding that by noon, order was restored. On the ground sources have reported that Niger’s army, alongside troops from Chad who have been stationed in Bosso since Monday, took on the Nigerian armed militants, adding that Boko Haram “took the municipality” for a time before being “driven back to Nigeria.” The attack comes as Niger’s parliament in the capital city Niamey is due to vote on 9 February on a proposal to send troops to Nigeria to fight Boko Haram.

Friday’s incident is the militant group’s second attack on a neighbouring country in the past two days. On Thursday, Boko Haram militants reportedly killed at least seventy people in an attack on the town of Fotokol in Cameroon. According to local officials, the militants attacked civilians in their homes and in the town’s mosque, setting many buildings on fire, including the mosque. Residents of Fotokol have reported that the militants had killed many people by slitting their throats. The militants were eventually driven back by Cameroonian troops, backed by Chadian forces, who had been deployed to the nearby Nigerian town of Gamboru as part of a regional force.   The attack came a day after a regional force indicated that it had driven the militants from a Nigerian town located near Fotokol.

On Tuesday, Chadian army disclosed that its troops had killed more than 200 militants in a battle to recapture Gamboru. Officials did note that some of the militants had escaped the offensive. Chadian troops have entered Nigeria and Cameroon to join the fight against Boko Haram.

The latest attacks come as Nigeria’s influential council of state announced Thursday that it has decided to go ahead with the presidential elections on 14 February, rejecting calls for a postponement.

Last month, Nigeria’s national security adviser had called for a delay to allow more time for voter card distribution. Officials have also raised their concerns over the on-going insurgency in northeastern Nigeria, which in recent months has seen Boko Haram mount its attacks both in Nigeria and in neighbouring Cameroon. However Imo state governor Rochas Okorocha indicated Thursday that election officials have insisted that they are “very ready.” Reports also emerged Thursday that a Nigerian government spokesperson disclosed that intelligence reports have indicated that the militant group is planning steal voter cards from women in a bid to use them to get suicide bombers into polling stations. In recent months, Boko Haram has increasingly been using female suicide bombers to carry out deadly attacks across northeastern Nigeria.

ISIS Targets Libyan Oil Field

4 February– Gunmen stormed a remote Libyan oil field, and killing twelve people on Tuesday. The extremists attacked the al-Mabrook oil field, nearly 105 miles south of Sirte. Among those killed were eight Libyans, two Filipino and two Ghanaian nationals. The Philippines Foreign Ministry said three Filipinos were among seven foreign nationals who had reportedly been kidnapped in the assault, however conflicting reports suggest that there have been no abductions.

Abdelhakim Maazab, commander of a security force in charge of protecting the oilfield said that most of the victims were “beheaded or killed by gunfire,” but does not report any kidnappings. A French diplomatic source in Paris and another Libyan official said Islamic State militants were behind the attack. In recent months, ISIS has made gains in Libya and has a stronghold in Derna. The group has reportedly set up training camps in the country’s eastern region, taking advantage of the deteriorating security situation in Libya.

France’s Total has a stake in the site, which is currently off-line, but it is contracted to a Libyan company. The Filipinos worked for an Italian company. Al-Mabrook closed following clashes which shut Es Sider in December. It used to pump 40,000 barrels a day. Total said it had already withdrawn staff from the site in 2013 and had no personnel onshore since July 2014. It was not clear whether Libya’s state-run National Oil Corp had employed expatriate staff at the field. Ali al-Hassi, spokesman for an oil guard force, blamed Islamists for the attack. “The field is outside of our control,” he said. “Islamic State is controlling it.”

The attack on the oil field comes a week after a separate attack targeting the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli. The hotel is frequented by government officials and foreign diplomats. The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has held functions in the hotel. Militants claiming links to Islamic State took responsibility for the deadly attack on the luxury hotel. However, officials of the government in Tripoli denied the claim, blaming “Gaddafi loyalists” for the assault.

Libya’s turmoil has deepened as two rival governments controlling different areas, compete for primacy, each with their own armies. Rival armed factions have also been fighting for almost two months for control of Libya’s biggest oil ports, Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, on the Mediterranean coast.

The recognized government of Abdullah al-Thinni and elected parliament has had to work out of an eastern rump state since a faction called Libya Dawn seized Tripoli in August, setting up its own administration and reinstating the old assembly. Libya’s neighbours in the region have held meetings to discuss the spread of militants through their borders. The UN is working diligently to develop a peace agreement between the opposing governments, however progress has stalled as the Tripoli government has been unwilling to hold the meeting in Geneva, insisting it be held inside Libya. Talks are expected to resume in coming days.

Attacks Continue in Nigeria as Presidential Elections Approach

Nigeria on Monday claimed to have retaken the town of Gamboru, along with four other towns held by Boko Haram, following a joint weekend offensive carried out by it’s military, civilian vigilantes and forces from neighbouring Chad and Cameroon. Tensions however remain high as the country braces for more attacks ahead of the 14 February presidential elections.

On Monday, national security spokesman Mike Omeri announced “our troops are in control after operations which had the active support of volunteers and our friendly neighbours.” In a separate statement, he indicated that the towns that have been retaken are: Mafa, Mallam Fatori, Abadam, Marte and Gamboru, where Chad has carried out three days of airstrikes. All of the towns are located in the northeastern state of Borno. The statement also indicated that eleven towns in Adamawa state to the south of Borno had been liberated, with the militants still occupying six areas. Boko Haram has also been chased out of Guba and Gulani, located in neighbouring Yobe state. On the ground sources in Fotokol, a town in Cameroon located less than one kilometre from Gamboru, confirmed that aerial bombings in the area were on-going early Monday but that the situation appeared quiet by the evening.

Omeri’s statement came hours after a suspected suicide bomber targeted a presidential campaign rally in northeastern Nigeria. President Goodluck Jonathan, who had been addressing supporters of his ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Gombe city, had just left the venue when the blast happened in a car park outside. Rescue workers and health officials indicated that two women were killed and eighteen people were wounded. According to a source, the two women are believed to be the suicide bombers behind the attack. The latest attack came a day after two explosions occurred in Gombe city, both of which have been blamed on Boko Haram militants. Sunday’s attacks left at least five people dead in a weekend of deadly violence that also saw the militant group attacking the strategic city of Maiduguri for the second time in a week. While Nigerian troops, aided by civilian vigilantes, repelled the attack, it is believed that Maiduguri will likely be targeted again before the presidential elections. This is due to its symbolism for the group and because control of the city would undermine the 14 February polls.   Boko Haram has effectively surrounded Maiduguri, which is seen as one of the last few places in the state where voting could feasibly still take place. If Boko Haram succeeds in gaining control, voter turnout will likely be affected if large numbers of people, many of whom have been displaced by the six-year insurgency, desert the city, which, along with several other areas in the northeast, is a main opposition stronghold.

The last two strikes on Maiduguri may have been preliminary tests carried out by the militant group in a bid to check the city’s defences. In turn, these two strikes have resulted in additional troops being deployed to Maiduguri, a move that may have been designed by Boko Haram to move troops out of other regions in the northeast where the militant group may now strike. While Boko Haram is strategically in an excellent place to launch a successful strike on Maiduguri, analysts question whether the group will be able to hold on to the key city.

For several months, Boko Haram has been in control of a series of towns along Nigeria’s northeastern border. The militant group has also been responsible for a string of cross-border attacks, particularly inside neighbouring Cameroon. The upsurge in violence coupled with fears that the Nigerian government may soon loose complete control over Borno state prompted calls for the affected countries to mount a joint offensive amidst evidence that Boko Haram was rapidly growing in strength.

While the new multi-lateral offensive may succeed in weakening Boko Haram, there could be severe political consequences for Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, who is seeking to be re-elected in the upcoming presidential elections, due to take place in less than two weeks. The president has already been severely criticized over his government’s failed response to the on-going insurgency. Furthermore, Nigeria’s willingness to allow foreign militants to carry out operations on its own territory, and possibly occupy areas with ground forces, will likely be seen as an embarrassment by some in Africa’s most populous country.

Boko Haram, which has proclaimed a “caliphate” in the areas under its control in northeastern Nigeria, is now threatening neighbouring Cameroon, Chad and Niger. Since April 2014, Boko Haram violence has been on the rise, and has continued to increase in the weeks leading up to the presidential elections:

2014

• April 14: 276 girls are seized from their school in Chibok, in the remote region of Borno state capital. Fifty-seven of the girls later managed to flee however 219 are still missing.
• April 14: At least 75 people are killed in a bomb blast that goes off in a packed bus station on the outskirts of Nigeria’s capital city Abuja. Boko Haram later claims responsibility for the bombing. Further attacks, which occur in May and June, kill another 40 people.
• May 5: Boko Haram gunmen raze the town of Gamboru Ngala in Borno state. Local sources reported that at least 300 people were killed
• May 20: Twin car bombings in the central Nigerian city of Jos, which are blamed on Boko Haram, kill at least 118 people.
• June 3: Heavily armed gunmen raid four northeastern villages in Borno state. Local leaders put the death toll between 400 – 500.
• November 28: Two suicide bombers blew themselves up and gunmen opened fire during weekly prayers at the mosque of the Emir of Kano, which is one of Nigeria’s top Islamic leaders. At least 120 people are killed and 270 are left injured.
• December 1: More than 150 people are killed after Boko Haram militants raid the northeastern city of Damaturu in Yobe state.
• December 14: Boko Haram kills 32 people and kidnaps at least 185 in an attack on the northeastern village of Gumsuri, which is located south of Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state.

2015

• January 3: Boko Haram attacks the town of Baga, which is located on the banks of Lake Chad. According to Amnesty International, “hundreds” were killed.
• January 25: Boko Haram captures the strategic northeastern town of Monguno and a military base. The town is located about 125 kilometres (80 miles) north of Maiduguri. US Secretary of State John Kerry pledges further US support for the counter-insurgency
• January 30 – 31: During a summit at the Ethiopian capital, the African Union proposes to set up a regional five-nation force of 7,500 troops tasked to fight Boko Haram.
• January 31 – February 1: Chadian aircraft bomb the Nigerian town of Gamboru at the border with Cameroon. A 500-metre bridge from the Cameroonian town of Fotokol, where Cameroonian and Chadian soldiers have gathered over the past several days, separates Gamboru.
• February 1: Boko Haram fighters storm Maiduguri. The Nigerian army indicated that it has repelled the assault with the help of local vigilante groups.

ISIS Sleeper Cells in Turkey

3 February- Information leaked from a Turkish National Police intelligence has divulged a threat of potential attacks conducted by ISIS sleeper cells across the country. The police report gives warning of as many as 3,000 operatives living in Turkey who are directly associated with the terrorist group that has taken large swaths of land in Iraq and Syria. The report details a list of cities in Turkey that are vulnerable to attack, including the administrative and cultural capitals, Ankara, and Istanbul.

Turkey shares a 565 mile border with Syria. During the 2011 Syrian uprising, Turkey opened its border to Syrian rebels in an effort to assist in the overthrow of Syrian president Bashar al Assad. As the popular uprising metastasised into a civil war, fighters were able to travel between the nations’ borders. These included members of al-Qaeda affiliated group al Nusra Front, and the group which came to be known as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The open border has provided a transit route for ISIS, which has been used to transport fighters, as well as black market oil and numerous weapons.

In the years since the 2011 uprising, extremists have established networks and infrastructure within Turkey that allows them to facilitate illegal activity. The group has reportedly established logistical bases in Turkey, and built a network of cells.

While the Turkish National Police are only now acknowledging this threat, Turkish and America media have been reporting for months about Islamic State recruitment activity in Turkey. In September 2014, the Turkish daily, Hurriyet, identified Islamic State activities in cities such as Istanbul and Kocaeli in the western portion of the country, and Gaziantep, Sanliurfa, and Diyarbakir to the east. Similarly, a New York Times report also detailed ISIS recruitment in Ankara, a report that was echoed in Newsweek which added that other conservative pockets in Turkey, such as the Dilovasi neighbourhood in Ankara are particularly susceptible for recruitment. Turkish daily newspaper Aydinlik noted that ISIS militants were operating in other towns, such as Konya, which is known for its conservative Islamic culture.

In January, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu acknowledged that there are approximately 700 Turkish nationals fighting for ISIS. Financial inducements may play a role; a New York Times report suggests that ISIS offers $150 a day to Turkish recruits who agree to fight.

Further weakening Turkish security is the idea that Turkey may be home to ISIS sympathisers. Ali Ediboglu, a Turkish opposition deputy, claims that “at least 1,000 Turkish nationals are helping […] foreign fighters sneak into Syria and Iraq to join ISIS.” Videos have emerged of gatherings in Istanbul which proclaim support for fighters in Syria, including ISIS. In October 2014, police arrested three students who clashed with protestors at an anti-ISIS rally. Further, a group of 20 people referring to themselves as “Musluman Gencier” (Muslim Youth) interrupted an anti-ISIS demonstration at Istanbul University wearing black masks and wielding bats. The group has reportedly attacked the campus on more than one occasion.

In the midst of the civil war, Turkey has become home to at least 1.5 million Syrian refugees. There is reason to fear that among those numbers are some that could be susceptible to radicalisation. Intelligence reports have suggested that the ISIS may be targeting young men and boys in refugee camps for recruitment.

The impact of ISIS has already been felt in Turkey. On January 6, a suicide bomber attacked a police station in Istanbul’s historic district of Sultanahmet. The bomber is believed to have had ties to the Islamic State. Continued attacks could cause irreparable damage to Turkey’s vital tourism sector and create alarm throughout the nation. However, ISIS may not benefit from targeting Turkey. The group has become reliant on the relatively open border and illicit oil sales in the nation. South-eastern Turkey has a “rather permissive environment” where “authorities don’t seem terribly alarmed over the presence of extremists”. Further, despite the nation’s proximity to the fighting, the Turkish government has not played an active role in the US-led coalition to eradicate ISIS. Turkey has refused to allow its military bases to be used for coalition operations. However the number of ISIS sympathisers and operatives within Turkish borders puts the country at risk. If Ankara decides to take a harsher stance against ISIS, it is likely that the terrorist group could activate cells within the nation. Turkey will need to tread carefully to take a concerted stance against ISIS while ensuring its national security.