Security Update: Bangladesh

Now entering its second month, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) backed transport blockade continues to threaten the ruling Awami League’s (AL) ability to govern. While calling for the installation of a caretaker government to oversee fresh elections, the BNP has stepped up its campaign against an administration they describe as unconstitutional and illegitimate. In January, tensions began to rise in the lead up to “Democracy Killing Day”; the first anniversary of the 2014 parliamentary election boycotted by the BNP. In response, police banned protests, introduced nighttime curfews and shut down access to smartphone messaging services Viber and Tango, which were being used by anti-government protestors to communicate and coordinate their activities. But as the death toll climbs higher and the fire bombings and train derailments continue, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the measures being used to contain the spread of political violence are ineffectual. What, then, is the best course of action for Sheikh Hasina Wajed and her government? How will they find a way out of this political deadlock?

In a recent interview with the AFP, BNP leader Khaleda Zia said: “[e]very conscious and conscientious person in Bangladesh knows that the only way to resolve the current political crisis is to hold an inclusive, competitive and meaningful election.” To delay even further, she says, would result in the situation in Bangladesh becoming more complex. As such, the best solution would be to hold a “fair election” based on “consensus of all parties and through talks.” However, the credibility of Zia’s desire for a consensus-based resolution to this problem has come under scrutiny, as the BNP abandons democratic principles in favour of violent street politics. As the battle lines become more entrenched and the opportunities for political rapprochement diminish, the BNP would do well to recognise that continued violence could easily push them past the point of no return.

While a new election offers one possible solution to the impasse, it does not yet appear on the AL’s political horizon. Hasina has stated her intention to remain in office until 2019, while rejecting calls for dialogue with the BNP, whom she has described as “murderers.” While the Bangladeshi Prime Minister might not see how fresh rounds of negotiations would improve her position, the rising economic costs of conflict could force her hand. Should the they rise too high, the government might have no choice but to negotiate, but If they remain at manageable levels, negotiation would serve no other purpose than to legitimise a political movement which has no constitutional standing. In either event, the AL should realise that further marginalisation of the BNP from the political mainstream would be sub-optimal; by responding to dissent with violence, threats of imprisonment and the diminution of civil liberties, the AL are making it more likely that the opposition will radicalise even further.

As it seems unlikely that the AL will negotiate with the BNP on their own terms, alternative means of resolving the stand-off must be considered. A likely scenario – and one which was alluded to by Sheikh Hasina on January 21 – is that Zia will be arrested on charges of inciting violence and destruction of property. Indeed, charges of “instigating arson attack” have already been filed against her in the capital Dhaka, central Comilla and Panchagarh. And although Zia has refused to accept liability for the attacks, she has declared herself “ready to face any consequences as our backs have been pushed against the wall.”

A second likely scenario is military intervention. Although military rule has been a recurrent feature in Bangladesh’s political history, the AL will not willingly transfer their own power to the hands of the generals. If, however, they are unable to resolve the crisis on their own, they may very well prefer a military junta to the possibility of a BNP-led government.

By failing to engage each other meaningfully in dialogue, both of Bangladesh’s mainstream political parties have created a political void which has in recent weeks begun to fill with violence, crime and extremism. Violent Islamic groups, which view the AL and the BNP as anathema to their own ambitions for a religious state, have begun to emerge. Should this situation be allowed to continue, the consequences for Bangladesh are potentially devastating. In the wider interests of law and order, the AL’s political ambitions and those of the BNP must be put aside before it’s too late.

US, French and UK embassies evacuate Yemen

12 February– Early on Wednesday after announcing their official takeover of the country, Shiite Houthi rebels attacked several anti-Houthi demonstrations. Later in the day, thousands of Houthi supporters marched through the capital shouting “Death to America, Death to Israel.” Amid the escalating violence, the US, British and French embassies have closed. The French and British embassies have encouraged all nationals to leave the country immediately. The US State Department currently has no plans to conduct a government-sponsored evacuation, but they have urged US citizens to maintain extreme caution amid an ongoing risk of kidnapping.

The Houthis captured large parts of Sanaa in September, however the embassies remained open. The closures today signal that the security situation has deteriorated significantly and is unlikely to change. Some analysts have indicated that Yemen is likely to slide into civil war.

Following the departure of American staff, Houthi rebels seized over 25 US Embassy vehicles in Sanaa. Pentagon spokesman Colonel Steve Warren said that although several vehicles were left behind, security forces destroyed heavier weapons before departing the US embassy for a commercial flight out of Yemen. In addition, embassy staff destroyed files and documents. Conflicting reports have emerged that the militiamen harassed US diplomatic personnel and confiscated their vehicles and side arms at the airport.

A small contingency of US military personnel that was not assigned to the embassy remain behind.  The closure will not impact counter-terrorism operations against al Qaeda’s Yemen branch, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). The branch is considered the most dangerous and active in the AQ network.

Yemen has been in crisis for months. Last week, fighters led by Abdel-Malek al-Houthi dissolved parliament and claimed formal control of the government. Weeks earlier, Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi resigned and has reportedly since been under house arrest. Al-Houthi has repeatedly warned against foreign intervention, saying, “We will not accept pressures. They are of no use. Whoever harms the interest of this country could see that their interests in this country are also harmed.”

About the Houthis

The Houthis stem from a minority branch of Shia Islam known as Zaidism (Zaydism). Zaidis comprise approximately a third of Yemen’s population, and ruled north Yemen for nearly a millennia until 1962, when a coup d’état carried out by Abdullah as-Sallal, successfully dethroned Imam Muhammad al-Badr, who was the newly crowned king of Yemen. Sallal and declared Yemen a republic and became its first president.

North and South Yemen unified in 1990 under its first president, Ali Abdullah Saleh. Fearing a threat to their religious and cultural traditions, a portion of the Zaidis formed a rebel group known as Ansar Allah (Partisans of God). The group were led by Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, a former member of the Yemeni parliament for the Al-Haqq Islamic party between 1993 and 1997. The rebels sought to win greater autonomy for the Saada province. Houthi led the first uprising in June of 2004, but was found and killed by Yemeni security forces in September of that year.  After Hussein’s passing, his family took up the mantle, and the Houthis took on the name of their leader. The Houthis conducted five further rebellions until a ceasefire agreement was signed with the Yemeni government in 2010. During the 2011 Arab Spring, the Houthis joined the protests against President Ali Abdullah Saleh. When Saleh stepped down in 2012, the Houthis quickly used the power vacuum to expand control over the Saadi province, and neighbouring Amran province.

The Houthis claim that the Yemeni people were dissatisfied and under-represented within the government, which they feel is dominated by members of the old regime.

Critics say the Houthis are a proxy for Shia dominated Iran, which the rebels and Iran deny. Former president Saleh has been accused by the US of backing the Houthis’ takeover of Sanaa “to not only delegitimize the central government, but also create enough instability to stage a coup”. In November, the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on him and two senior Houthi leaders. The UN said the leaders were threatening Yemen’s peace and stability and obstructing the political process.

Niger Declares State of Emergency as Boko Haram Attacks Continue in Neighbouring Nigeria

On Tuesday, Niger declared a 15-day state of emergency in the border region of Diffa after several attacks carried out by Nigerian-based militant group Boko Haram.

The declaration of a state of emergency effectively provides troops operating in the region new powers to search homes without a warrant and to impose a curfew. In the wake of Boko Haram attacks on the border town of Diffa over the weekend, officials have also imposed an overnight curfew and have banned the use of motorcycles, a common mode of transport, in order to prevent infiltration by Boko Haram militants. The curfew will force residents to stay indoors between 20:00 and 06:00 local time (19:00 and 05:00 GMT). On the grounds sources have reported that thousands of residents are fleeing the town of Diffa over fears that the militants will launch further attacks. Some have travelled 500 km (310 miles) to Zinder city, with one eyewitness reporting that about 200 refugees arrived in Zinder on Tuesday in a single convoy. The nearby border town of Bosso was attacked on Friday.

In recent weeks, Boko Haram has intensified its campaign against neighbouring states, carrying out attacks and kidnappings in Cameroon. On Monday, suspected Boko Haram militants hijacked a bus in northern Cameroon, abducting at least 20 people. On the ground sources reported that the militants reportedly seized a bus carrying market-goers and drove it towards the border with Nigeria. The bus was seized near the border area of Koza and driven towards the Nigerian border, 18 kilometres (11 miles) away.

During the early morning hours Wednesday, Boko Haram militants attacked Chadian troops stationed in a Nigerian border town. According to a Chadian military source, “the Boko Haram elements wanted to surprise us by attacking at about 4 am (0300 GMT). We were aware about it from the day before and were prepared.” The attack occurred in the town of Gamboru, which is located on Nigeria’s border with Cameroon, where Chadian troops, who are deployed to help in the complex regional battle against Boko Haram, have taken up positions. According to the source, Boko Haram militants “…arrived with 14 vehicles and two armoured vehicles. We repulsed them and they retreated,” adding “a helicopter was brought in to join the pursuit and destroy them.”

Last week, Nigeria and its neighbours, Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger, agreed to launch a 8,750 regional force, composed of troops, police and civilians, for a wider African Union-backed force against Boko Haram. On Monday, Niger’s parliament voted to deploy troops to Nigeria to join the fight against Boko Haram. MP’s have authorized the deployment of 750 soldiers with a regional force that is battling the militant group. On going Boko Haram attacks and the region’s military operations to gain back occupied territory have forced Nigeria to postpone its presidential and parliamentary elections from 14 February to 28 march.

Jordan, UAE, Syria and ISIS Update

10 February—Earlier today, Jordan deployed thousands of ground troops to its border with Iraq as the kingdom ramps up its campaign against ISIS militants. The troops will stay at the border to prevent infiltration of ISIS militants into Jordan. Jordanian forces have also redoubled their efforts in targeting ISIS strongholds since the release of a brutal video showing the burning death of Lieutenant Kasasbeh. The pilot was captured in December and had been held hostage for months as the Jordanian government attempted to negotiate his release.

It is believed that the gruesome burning death of Kasasbeh was filmed at least a month prior to its release. ISIS continued with negotiations in an attempt to retrieve two al Qaeda linked fighters that had been imprisoned in Jordan, while also doing “post-production” editing to their latest video, which is considerably more high quality and . Following the release of the video, the detained fighters were immediately transferred to a Jordanian prison that handles execution. They were executed the following day.

The video of Kasasbeh’s death sparked outrage in Jordan. King Abdullah has vowed a “strong, earth-shaking and decisive” response. On 8 February, Jordanian forces conducted 56 airstrikes on ISIS targets. Abdullah has also sought to send ground troops into Syria, however Syrian president Bashar al Assad will not allow foreign ground troops. Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem said, “So far, there is no coordination between Syria and Jordan in the fight against terrorism […] as for press reports about ground troops entering Syria, we say clearly that… we will not permit anyone to violate our national sovereignty by intervening to fight IS.” He added that the Syrian Arab Army would undertake the task of eradicating ISIS.

The refusal to allow Jordanian forces into Syria does not come as a surprise. Syria’s government has accused the kingdom of supporting terrorism, because Jordan has been supportive of the uprising against Assad which began in 2011.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates announced on Saturday that they would resume their efforts in the coalition airstrikes against ISIS. The emirate’s official news agency says that in re-joining the airstrikes, they “reaffirms [its] unwavering and constant solidarity with Jordan.” The UAE has sent a squadron of F-16 jets to Jordan so that its pilots can fly sorties alongside those from Jordan. In addition to providing additional fighting power, by moving the squadrons to Jordan, they are able to shorten their flight distances and intensify air-strikes against ISIS. The UAE halted their efforts in December after Kasasbeh was shot down during a mission over Syria. It has been reported that the UAE dropped out of the coalition because there were no significant search and rescue assets in place for the recovery of downed planes or fighters.

The UAE says the renewed effort is an attempt to stop “the brutal terrorist organization that showed all of the world its ugliness … through abominable crimes that exposed its false allegations and drew outrage and disgust from the Arab peoples,” according to the news release by WAM, Emirates News Agency. The release also said the initiative comes from the “deep belief in the need for Arab collective cooperation to eliminate terrorism … through the collective encountering of these terrorist gangs and their misleading ideology and brutal practices.”

Even in the midst of the intensified efforts, ISIS today has released a new propaganda video which shows British journalist John Cantlie. The video features an ISIS member calling on Muslims to carry out more attacks in France. Cantile has been held captive for more two years by ISIS militants. He has previously been shown in a range of videos, including a series called “Lend Me Your Ears.”

Cantile speaks about a range of topics, including education, drone strikes and Sharia law. Addressing other Muslims living in France, he urges them to carry out further “lone wolf” strikes. The video is the second documentary-style video in the “Inside…” series, following videos from Kobane, Syria, and Mosul, Iraq.  Cantile’s family have called on ISIS to set him free, with Cantlie’s father Paul, 80, sending a message to ISIS appealing for his son’s freedom. He died shortly afterwards. Jessica Cantlie, his sister, has previously appealed for “direct contact” with the extremist militants holding him.

Finally, the US has confirmed that American hostage Cayla Mueller has been killed. Shortly after the Jordan campaign, ISIS released a statement that Jordanian missiles had resulted in the aid worker’s death. The US has not yet confirmed Mueller’s cause of death.

US Consulate Issues Warning for Matamoros, Mexico

The United States consulate in Matamoros issued a statement on Wednesday (4 February 2015) warning all American citizens of an increase in violence, which US officials indicate has been attributed to a battle between Matamoros and Reynosa factions of the Gulf Cartel.

The US consulate has indicated that staff members have been advised to restrict travel in the city as there has been a surge in violence and an increase in reports of large convoys of armed drug gang members driving through Matamoros. A statement released by the consulate indicated, “while daytime convoys of armed Transnational Criminal Organization members are not necessarily unusual for Matamoros, the amount of violence that has resulted from gun battles between these rival factions is cause for increased vigilance.” TCO convoys have been also driving through Division Del Norte, Lauro Villar, Canales, Periferico and near the entrance to the Veterans International Bridge.

On Wednesday, Mexican federal troops killed eight alleged gang members in battles that occurred along a highway near the US border in the northern state of Tamaulipas. According to a federal and state police task force, the gunmen were killed in separate battles after they hijacked buses and used them to block a highway between the cities of Matamoros and Reynosa, opposite the Texas border towns of Brownsville and McAllen. According to officials, an explosive device was found and deactivated in front of the mayor’s office in Matamoros.

According to federal data, Tamaulipas state led the country in kidnappings in 2014, with 264 reported cases, compared with 211 that were reported in 2013. Homicides rose from 555 in 2013 to 628 in 2014.